Ian,
Just wanted to say thanks for the trouble and effort you went to to keep us all informed. It's very appreciated!

Why, thank you. It's nice to feel appreciated.
Ian,
Just checked the met office and they are predicting a 'moderate risk' of an even greater snowfall in the south of England this Thurs and Fri. There is also a 'low risk' of 25cm or more!!!!
Do you concur kind sir?
Well, if I really want to be honest about it, I'm having mixed feelings about it. The
potential's there for some prolonged snowfalls over England and Wales but not all the elements are there needed for it.
For a start, I'm not really happy with the "upper air" temperatures over the southern half of the UK for tomorrow, Thursday and Friday. It's a bit on the high side. The air at 5000 ft and higher (where cumulus clouds usually forms) needs to be below freezing in order to produce snow. Ground temperatures being at freezing or below won't count for anything if the air aloft remains above freezing.
Secondly, the low pressure center that will settle over the UK for the second half of this week actually originated from the Bay of Biscay, so it's got bits of mild air wrapped around it in any case.
So, all I'm really seeing is rain, freezing rain (when rain freezes on contact with a cold surface) and sleet with perhaps snow over the Pennines and Chilterns as we go towards the end of the week. Having said all that, it does look to be a bit on the wet side but I think the 25 cms snow predicted for parts of the UK is a bit overcooked.
BUT, having said that, the
risk (I stress the word "risk" even though I really want to be as accurate as possible) is there, but confidence is a bit on the low side. Unless that low pressure system does decide to suck in some cold air from it's northern edge and turn the whole lot into snow. It does sound like I'm covering my ass, but I'm just not "feeling" it (the weather ahead, not my posterior!).
As we go into the weekend, my confidence is high for colder air to advance southwards to cover all parts of the UK as a northernly airstream takes over and clear away all this low pressure muck. Embedded in that cold northernly airsteam are "troughs" that will show up as narrow lines of "thundersnow". Those are sudden 20 minutes bursts of snowfalls, a bit like when we have sudden rain squalls in the summer. That will catch people out as they are very unpredictable things, you'd soon know about it when one of those crosses over your location.
But otherwise, it's really a case of plenty of winter sunshine and things staying cold with a widespread and hard frost by night.
Next week looks like seeing to a breakdown as the Atlantic begins to stir, but confidence is very low on this one.
Will have another look at my charts tomorrow and see if my confidence about the whole thing changes. It's really a case of keeping one eye on the forecasts and the other eye out through a window.
