Batten Down The Hatches (* * * Fresh Snow Warning Added * * *)

It did get wet and wild for a time here last night . . . then suddenly at 12.30 am, the wind just dropped away. Just like that (as Tommy Cooper often used to say).
However, it will become windy as we go through today but it won't be as strong as last night's. But expect showers, and lots of them. Some of them will contain snow.
Then the working week will remain cool, windy and unsettled over the whole of the UK with showers(some wintry) and sunny spells with a longer spell of rain on Wednesday.

I bid you good day. :)
 
Ian D J said:
It did get wet and wild for a time here last night . . . then suddenly at 12.30 am, the wind just dropped away. Just like that (as Tommy Cooper often used to say).
However, it will become windy as we go through today but it won't be as strong as last night's. But expect showers, and lots of them. Some of them will contain snow.
Then the working week will remain cool, windy and unsettled over the whole of the UK with showers(some wintry) and sunny spells with a longer spell of rain on Wednesday.

I bid you good day. :)
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cheers ian, its a little windy here but not too bad, im going out on the bike, i shall report the windspeeds up whinlatter later this afternoon using the scale of no wind, breezy, windy, ****ing windy, ****ing ****ing windy, and oooohhh ****!
 
Inverness overnight, thunder and lightning in January?? followed by the first proper snow of the winter.
 
wind has been getting up an bit all day over near keswick, its not that windy unless you get high up and then the cross wind in any exposed areas was quite strong, the ice blasting from the hail was a bit painful though!
 
Ian D J said:
I dunno what's being thrashed the most. The UK, or this thread! :shrug::D:lol:

Now turning very wet, wild and windy at this neck of the wood.
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sorry Ian....but blame Heppers not lil'ol me :)

I am looking forward to you predicting a long hot summer this year:thinking:
 
BeHappy said:
sorry Ian....but blame Heppers not lil'ol me :)

I am looking forward to you predicting a long hot summer this year:thinking:
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:D That's quite alright, at least it had the effect of bumping this thread back up. :naughty:
I'm not really a big fan of long-range forecasting as such. Due to the chaotic nature of our climate I think it's up there with trying to predict the winning lottery numbers or the outcome of your own personal life for this time next week. It's a bit like trying to aim an arrow at a target a mile away while being blindfolded.
However, take off the blindfold and move nearer to the target and it becomes a lot easier. Generally the sensible forecast range is from a few hours to four days ahead.
Forecasting the weather for up to 14 days ahead is called a medium range forecast. That's where a "scatter" effect kicks in. I could look at outputs from 7 different computers and if there is a general agreement on one theme (ie:a cold snowy spell) then my confidence becomes high in terms of trying to predict that particular weather condition (that's how I predicted that recent cold icy spell). However, if all 7 computers are spitting out different outcomes each for the next two weeks then I just ignore then and concentrate on the here-and-now (which is set to continue VERY wet but not as windy).
If my arm is being forced and I HAVE to come up with a long range forecast for this summer, I'll take a stab in the dark and suggest it should be a warmer and drier one. I mean, we can't have three lousy summers on the trot, can we?!
However, I'm also saying that with a heavy heart as I'm a greenhouse worker and believe you me, some of the more difficult and hard working seasons are associated with our warmer summers. Like for instance the brutal one of 1995 when temperatures was at 27 C or above for two weeks solid. That nearly finished me off.
Thanks heavens that the Great Heatwave of 2003 when it reached 101 F in Kent occured on a Sunday, the one day of the week when I don't go into work. The heat and dryness was so intense that it ruined my tomato crop.
I won't mind a hot summer if it comes with some crackin' thunderstorms (I love storms, me).

See, like to think I do educate as well as to entertain. :D
 
Another excellent post mate!

I love and crave a good thunderstorm.
Haven't had a good one since I've been into photography :D
 
was that recorded at brogdale Ian? ( 2003 temp )
 
donutagain said:
was that recorded at brogdale Ian? ( 2003 temp )
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Yes, on the 11th August. :) Although there has been heated (no pun intended) discussions in the many weather forums on the net regarding the exact "official" location of that record-breaking heatwave. Some argued it occured at Gravesend, other said it's at Coldred (both location said with a hint of irony!) and Faversham, Headcorn and Brogdale were also thrown into the discussion pot.
So, for argument's sake, I'm just gonna say it occured "somewhere in north of Kent". :suspect: :D :cuckoo:
Actually, Heathrow got in first when it reached the 100 F mark at 2 pm, but then at 3 pm a Kent location (take your pick) also hitted the century, and went onto exceeding the record for the hottest day ever recorded using official measurements at 4.30 pm.
Folkestone reached 35 C on that day, exceptionally hot for a coastal location.
Thought I'd come up with this to make you feel all warm and sunny on this cold dark damp winter evening. ;)

Once again, thanks for showing an interest on this thread, everyone. :) Even though it has very little to do with photography, but this IS the Out Of Focus section. :D
 
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Ian D J said:
Yes, on the 11th August. :) Although there has been heated (no pun intended) discussions in the many weather forums on the net regarding the exact "official" location of that record-breaking heatwave. Some argued it occured at Gravesend, other said it's at Coldred (both location said with a hint of irony!) and Faversham, Headcorn and Brogdale were also thrown into the discussion pot.
So, for argument's sake, I'm just gonna say it occured "somewhere in north of Kent". :suspect: :D :cuckoo:
Actually, Heathrow got in first when it reached the 100 F mark at 2 pm, but then at 3 pm a Kent location (take your pick) also hitted the century, and went onto exceeding the record for the hottest day ever recorded using official measurements at 4.30 pm.
Folkestone reached 35 C on that day, exceptionally hot for a coastal location.
Thought I'd come up with this to make you feel all warm and sunny on this cold dark damp winter evening. ;)

Once again, thanks for showing an interest on this thread, everyone. :) Even though it has very little to do with photography, but this IS the Out Of Focus section. :D
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Another fantastic post Ian :thumbs:

Jesus, that day was just TOO hot.
I'm not keen on being hot, and that was really terrible.
I remember the day very well. Me and the Mrs was at Marwell Zoo :D
 
andy_fozzy said:
Another fantastic post Ian :thumbs:

Jesus, that day was just TOO hot.
I'm not keen on being hot, and that was really terrible.
I remember the day very well. Me and the Mrs was at Marwell Zoo :D
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:) :thumbs: It was most certainly a hot day in every sense of the word, wasn't it?
I was indoors with just my underwear on all day (not at all a pleasant sight) on that day. I'm not a heat lover at all - which is great for someone who works in a greenhouse (!) - or it's probably because of that in any case.
Because my house faces the west, it catches the afternoon sun, and because of that, I could never forget how it felt like opening an oven door when I opened the front door.
However, the last major heatwave we had here in Kent took place on 19th July 2006 when the next nearest official met office-approved weather station at Langdon Bay (Dover) clocked up 36.6 C. That was awful as it occured on a Wednesday, right in the middle of the working week. I had to walk out on the greenhouses in the morning thus leaving my work untouched as I thought I was gonna pass out in there.
Thankfully that intense heat was very short lived (only on that one day).
And that was the last time we've had any "serious" heat. What the heck happened there?! Actually, I should know the answer to that question!
 
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Expect rain across most southern parts of the UK tonight and into tomorrow morning. And lots of it. Up to 50 mm in places (that's an inch and a half in old money). The south west of the UK will be affected the most.
That will lead to localised flooding, especially since the soil is already heavily saturated by previous rainfall in the past week.
Driving conditions will be difficult by the morning rush hour. :)
At least the weekend is looking better with more in the way of sunshine and only few showers, but even then frost and ice will return during the night in many places.
 
Im in Devon pouring down, hoping saturday is dry going toboggining and snowboarding on a dry ski slope with 15 kids.
oh joy!
 
Thought I'd do this cartoon to lighten the mood up a bit.

raincartoon.jpg
 
Ashers said:
** a bril artist :D
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Thanks Ash. :)

Well, 24 mm of rain had fallen overnight according to my electronic rain gauge. I say that's not far off the mark with my own prediction (I never look at the telly weather forecasts, it's all too "dumbed down these days). It has to be pretty much the same story along the southern coast.
The rain has ceased off for now as I type, but it looks like there are some more waiting in the wings for this morning.
 
Oh, to give you an idea on "how much" is 24 mm of rain in 24 hours, a day with 10 mm of rain would be classed as a very wet day. Usually a dull damp drizzly afternoon may produce 0.5 mm (half a millimeter).
27 mm equates to an inch in old money.

Did you know that 30 mm of rain produces 12 inches of snow? If it was that little bit colder, we would be in the middle of the mother of all snowy spells.
I'm still going for a potentially snowy first half of February, though!
 
It's been chucking down for ages down south.
Just stopped as I type, but as you say, I think there's more on the way!

It was actually quite a pleasant day yesterday, clear and sunny most of the time.
That's not the case now!!
 
Ian D J said:
I'm still going for a potentially snowy first half of February, though!
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Fantastic if it is. Tornado will be doing her first run down the east coast line from Darlington to Kings Cross on 7 February.

Snow and steam .....:nuts::bonk:
 
woadrage said:
Fantastic if it is. Tornado will be doing her first run down the east coast line from Darlington to Kings Cross on 7 February.

Snow and steam .....:nuts::bonk:
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I've heard about that steam engine! It is the first actual fully functional working steam engine built solely from handbuilt parts in the very recent time (I think it was completed only a couple of years ago). I've heard that special forging machines had to be built to provide some of the parts. That's gotta work out as being expensive.
And it looks to be worth the effort as she really does look a handsome locomotive, it looks so "right", if you know what I mean.
Okay, I'll see what I can do for snow (and clear skies, of course) on the day. :D The "prospect" is still there, but it's also still out of the "reliable" forecast time frame so details could still change. One to keep an eye on, me thinks.

Anyway, back to the here and now. The forecast for the week ahead is of low pressure systems forming over the Atlantic and coming up against high pressure forming to our east once again.
This will mean lots of rain to the west of the UK as frontal systems judder to a halt over the UK, but there will none of the stormy winds we've had recently. Again, just like last week, hilly areas will see to further snow especially to the north of the UK.
Remaining rather on the cool side with the continued risk of ice and frost at times during the night whenever skies does get clear.
 
Mmmm, fascinating . . . can see that the "medium" term forecast is now starting to fall in line with my prediction of a cold and snowy start to February.
Something to keep an eye out, methinks. :suspect:
 
Ian....whats the weather for this weekend then :) Not snow I hope:suspect:
 
BeHappy said:
Ian....whats the weather for this weekend then :) Not snow I hope:suspect:
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Not quite yet, but it is set to turn colder once again as the wind begin to turn in from the continent as we go into the weekend, and become quite strong in the process so there'll be quite a harsh chill factor. Best to wrap up warm, but at least it will be dry and quite sunny, at least over the London area.
It then has the effect of pushing any Atlantic fronts back westwards so any rain that may be about will be restricted to the western side of the UK. Possible hill snow especially over the Pennines and that.
Then as we go into next week all eyes look back towards the east. That's where the cold continental air will try and dig back in over the UK, but this time with an increased risk of snow. Details (how much and IF any are actually set to fall) are uncertain at this stage but that's the most likely outcome.
But indeed, it looks like The Cold Spell Mk II is on it's way.

And you're right, Mrgubby, 25.4 mm does equate to an inch. :D
 
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Well, it is now set in stone. The cold air should start to creep in over the UK from the south east by Sunday but it won't be until the middle part of next week before I could start talking about possible risk of snow.
But one thing for certain; it will gradually turn colder as we go through the weekend and beyond. Just like the last time it will be dry and sunny (as the wind is of a dry continental type), then a risk of things turning more wintry from next Wednesday onwards.
 
Thanks Ian :thumbs:
cold and clear makes for some good hawking ( falconry) days
What are the wind speeds likely to be?
as strong winds are a pain, a light breeze would be good.
If you could organise that, it would be appreciated :D :thumbs:
 
Cobra said:
Thanks Ian :thumbs:
cold and clear makes for some good hawking ( falconry) days
What are the wind speeds likely to be?
as strong winds are a pain, a light breeze would be good.
If you could organise that, it would be appreciated :D :thumbs:
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Hi Chris and thanks for showing an interest in this.
Without me boring you with the exact details, it is looking set to be windy on Friday, Saturday and into Sunday. A fresh southernly wind at first, and then will slowly back into as south east as we go through the weekend, before finally settling into as a more moderate east as we wear through next week.
So it is looking set to be quite breezy I'm afraid, especially on Saturday but at least not at the same kind of strength as what we had last week (storm force gales!).
At least it is set to remain dry with a fair amount of sunshine, and this cold dry will prevent a hard hoar frost from setting in at night time, and at the same time drying up the ground nicely. As a result icy patches will be few and far apart for now (apart on poorly drained roads and that, of course).
 
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Thanks Ian Its not looking terribley promising then :( ( for me at least)
 
Thanks for that.
Sounds as if next week I may have a chance to get some snow pics, and if I can find birds trying to fly into the wind they may even be moving slowly enough for me to get some pics of them as well :lol:
 
Yep, it's all falling into place.
This "wintry" forecast has now fallen into the "reliable" time frame (2 to 5 days ahead). If it verifies, by this time next week we could be experiencing the most severe cold since . . . ooo, a long time ago.
From what I'm looking at, if you thought early January's cold spell was cold, you ain't seen nothing. :eek:
 
That's excellent news Ian... Looks well promising for some good photo opportunities, no doubt thru the window for some eh? :lol:

Must remember to get a bit more de-icer in though ;)
 
hepburn said:
That's excellent news Ian... Looks well promising for some good photo opportunities, no doubt thru the window for some eh? :lol:

Must remember to get a bit more de-icer in though ;)
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It is, if you like the snow and cold (I admit, I am a bit of a snow lover, and at least I work in a warm greenhouse so the cold won't be that much of an issue).
Indeed, stock up on plenty of de-icer and make sure there's plenty of antifreeze in the engine radiator.
Now will also be a good time to make sure your central heating is up to scratch.
I think the best business to be in during these difficult economical times is selling draught excluders and hot water bottles.
 
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