Batten Down The Hatches (* * * Fresh Snow Warning Added * * *)

Thanks for the kind comments, everyone! :)
Well, my forecast wasn't too far off wrong. The south coast and the whole of the South East appeared to have only recieved rain, as I knew what would happen.
It looks like anything within 100 miles of Oxford recieved the white stuff last night. Again, which wasn't too far off my expectations. It's already turning to rain in places as I write.
Lincs, around the Birmingham and the Midland should catch some snow as we go through today.
Those who got it, enjoy the snow. While at the same time play it safe! :eek:

There is a small chance of the South East catching the snow as the whole lot begins to move south-eastwards tonight and into tomorrow but amounts are likely to be small. Looking set to be a very wet and miserable 48 hours over Kent and East Anglia, though. :shake:
 
Finally!!! we got some snow overnight! :) and :(
 
Its ridiculous isn't it, I come here and get better forecasting than the BBC seem capable of! :bonk:

Thanks again Ian, I am personally of the opinion this thread should be stickied :lol:

Oh, and for the record, 30 miles south of Marc, here on the northerly edge of london on its boundary with Herts, we got some sleet overnight, but it is now raining and starting to wash away the 4inches of snow that was still lying around from Monday. It will be very interesting if this cloud clears and it freezes tonight :gag:
 
:agree: about the sticky!

Thanks again Ian!
 
Yv said:
Its ridiculous isn't it, I come here and get better forecasting than the BBC seem capable of! :bonk:

Thanks again Ian, I am personally of the opinion this thread should be stickied :lol:

Oh, and for the record, 30 miles south of Marc, here on the northerly edge of london on its boundary with Herts, we got some sleet overnight, but it is now raining and starting to wash away the 4inches of snow that was still lying around from Monday. It will be very interesting if this cloud clears and it freezes tonight :gag:
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Would you like me to blow some of it your way? We've got plenty to spare. :D
 
Well done again Ian :thumbs:
another 4 inches overnight for us, just about the time the rest was fading into obscurity
Like Marc no gritting here either :(
 
Its ridiculous isn't it, I come here and get better forecasting than the BBC seem capable of!
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Not really ridiculous. How often does the South East ever actually get a mention on BBC ? We NEED Ian-the-Weather and are very grateful to him.

I'm so pleased I found this thread (thanks Christine !)
 
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Kerioak said:
I would like to add another thanks for Ian - again you have proven to be accurate - looking forward to next week's report to see if you concur with the snow forecast for Monday :D
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:) And these kind comments are still coming in. It may be freezing cold outside but reading your comments is certainly warming the cockles of my heart.

Anyway, let's get down to business, shall we?

It goes without saying that we are going through a rather exciting spell as far as our weather is concerned. It seems that around the Notts area had experienced the heaviest snow with many parts of the Midlands notching up 8 to 10 cm.
On the other end of the scale, the south coast and more particularly the south east, the weather turned out rather damp, dreary and murky as it was firmly under the mild sector. It was that north-moving mild sector which caused the snow as it collided against a southwards-moving cold air mass as it made it's way down over the northern half of the UK.
Incidentially, in that mild sector, there's even a small thunderstorm in progress over the Channel Isles as I type this report!

So, what does the weekend have in store for us, then?

The band of rain, sleet and snow that moved northwards over the UK during the course of today has mostly fizzled out. But there is an another area of precipitation over the South West of the UK right now, and it is that which will give another spell of rain and sleet over the southern coast tonight and tomorrow. There will be further snowfalls along it's leading edge to affect South Wales and that area of snow should work it's way very slowly towards the South East over the next 24 hours but by the time it reaches the far South East of England, it'll mostly be of rain with perhaps sleet over high ground.
Saturday: It's really a simple case of much more in the way of sunshine but with sleet and snow showers rattling in from the north to affect Scotland and later on along the eastern side of the UK to as far south as East Anglia.
It will be very cold on Saturday night with a hard pentrating frost almost countrywide.
On Sunday, a weak front will try and edge in from the west to bring cloudier conditions to the western side of the UK with the east seeing the best of the sunshine. Still on the cold side but not as cold as of late.
Yes, by Monday, another low pressure system will be forming over the Bay of Biscay and will edge northeastwards towards the UK as we go through Monday. And just like today, it will produce rain over the south coast at first, then turning to sleet and snow as it moves further inland but I think amounts wil be small and confidence about the whole thing is rather low in any case.

Looking further ahead, as we enter the realms of long range forecasting, the milder weather that will follow this spell of rain, sleet and snow looks set to be short lived as I can see another easterly wind setting in by the middle part of this month. That should bring snow to the eastern side of England . . . and this time Kent should get it's fair share (for a change!). Confidence for that is actually high, so really, Winter haven't finished with us, not by a long shot.
It ain't over until the fat lady sings, and she's still remaining quiet.
 
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Yep, I'm now "in there" in TP. I've only just noticed my very own nickname above my avatar. :D :D :clap: :woot:
 
Ian D J said:
........... On Sunday, a weak front will try and edge in from the west to bring cloudier conditions to the western side of the UK with the east seeing the best of the sunshine. Still on the cold side but not as cold as of late.
.
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Thats interesting Ian :thumbs:
The met office for my local area are predicting the winds doing an "almost 180" and pushing more snow this way.
"heavy showers" predicted for Sat. night right through Sun. and Mon.....
Ian D J said:
Yep, I'm now "in there" in TP. I've only just noticed my very own nickname above my avatar. :D :D :clap: :woot:
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Yep your well in now Michael Ian :thumbs:
 
Ian D J said:
Yep, I'm now "in there" in TP. I've only just noticed my very own nickname above my avatar. :D :D :clap: :woot:
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More accurate than Michael Fish, but well deserved :clap:

I would rather read your forecasts than watch the tv ones, yoy are far more informative :D
 
mrgubby said:
Didn't Fish get it a bit wrong once :nono:
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To say he f'ked up was an understatement
Ask the people of "two Oaks" Kent :D
Be he was o the radio awhile back saying something about
"it wasn't his watch" so not his fault Oh well :D
 
Ian, you deserve that title more than Michael Fish does :D

I remember the BANANAS up of poor Mike's well.
I was only a kid at the time, but I can SO remember him saying this:

[YOUTUBE]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uqs1YXfdtGE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uqs1YXfdtGE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/YOUTUBE]

:lol::lol::lol:
 
Hi, back again but with a fresh new weather warning for next week. I had to hang fire for a couple of days before issuing this warning but now we've moved into the "reliable time frame" I thought it seemed a good idea to come up with this fresh new weather warning.

It looks like a low pressure system will be forming over the Bay of Biscay on Sunday night and as it's centre crosses eastwards over the English Channel during the course of Monday and into the night, it could well produce some severe wintry weather by Tuesday morning . . . but only for certain areas though.

This is why I came up with this map, produced on Saturday noon-time, with the forecast for Tuesday morning.

feb10thForecast.jpg


The light purple area represents the high risk of heavy, drifting and prolonged snow. That should affect mid-Wales, the Midlands, Lincs and East Anglia.
The light blue area is where there'll be freezing rain, sleet and snow over high ground. That should affect south Wales and along the Home Counties.
Finally, the dark blue area is heavy rain with possible wet snow over hills, that will affect most southern coastal areas and London.

There is one thing that will be different about this spell of snowy weather when it does occur in the desginated areas, and that it will be coupled with strong to gale force east winds. That will most definitely make for drifting snow.
If you had the snow, have you noticed how it settled neatly on the ground where there hadn't been very much in the way of winds?
Even if only a couple of inches of snow fell, that will be more than enough to cause problems with drifting when accompanied with strong winds.

Afterwards, once that low pressure system moves on, a ridge of high pressure will move in from the west as we go into the second half of the week. That will have the effect of settling things down a bit as it brings brighter and less cold conditions but still cold by night with widespread frost and of course icy conditions where the snow will fall.
There are subtle hints of the winds wanting to come in from the north east as we go into the next weekend. That may have the effect of bringing snow flurries down along the eastern side of the UK. But that's a long way off.
 
andy_fozzy said:
Ian, you deserve that title more than Michael Fish does :D

I remember the f*@k up of poor Mike's well.
I was only a kid at the time, but I can SO remember him saying this:

[YOUTUBE]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uqs1YXfdtGE&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uqs1YXfdtGE&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/YOUTUBE]

:lol::lol::lol:
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:D Poor old Micheal Fish. I remember that forecast.

But in actual fact, it has been taken out of context. He was merely responding to a letter by a lady who was preparing to fly off to the Carribeans and she was worried about hurricanes down there.
It was sheer bad luck that he just happened to make a passing comment about that in his forecast, not realising we were about to have our very own "hurricane".
He did have an idea that winds were going to be strong to gales over southern England and mentioned that in his forecast but could only watch helplessly as the low pressure responsible for that "storm of the century" had suddenly exploded in strength over the next few hours as we went into the night. In other words, it became a powerful "bomb" depression while it was still out in the Atlantic, and that baby very rapidly moved eastwards over the next few hours.
It occured at a time when once warnings were being issued, most people were in bed being blissfully unaware of it . . . until that bomb depression was literally on top. Bear in mind that the interweb was still a twinkle in the eyes of some unknown computer geek so any warnings that were being issued went unnoticed by most people, unless they were happening to be listening to the radio in the middle of the night (we didn't have 24 hours telly programmes in those days).
So there you have it. :)
 
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Like your new title Ian....I do think TP should consider you as a stickie :thumbs:

Another impressive weather report for the next few days :thumbs:
 
Ian D J said:
:D Poor old Micheal Fish. I remember that forecast........

.......... It occured at a time when once warning were being issued, most people were in bed being blissfully unaware of it . . . until that bomb depression was literally on top. Bear in mind that the interweb was still a twinkle in the eyes of some unknown computer geek so any warnings that were being issued went unnoticed by most people, unless they were happening to be listening to the radio in the middle of the night (we didn't have 24 hours telly proglammes in those days).
So there you have it. :)
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Thats very Magnm manig big of you Ian :thumbs: :D
I remember it well too ;)

Thanks for the update, I'm in the purple! it will be interesting to see what happens.
Although the met office were issuing warnings for this area
( as per my previous post) they are now saying light winds and sunny Tues, stong winds and sunny Weds.
You have been very accurate so far ( and we still have about 3-4ins laying but starting to melt in the warm-ish winter sunshine)
so I'm with you and are battening down the hatches as we speak :D
 
I'm going for a period of prolonged and heavy snow with drifting in the strong east winds on Monday Afternoon over the South East.
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OK, I'll reschedule so as to have time out with the camera !
 
Ian D J said:
Yep, I'm now "in there" in TP. I've only just noticed my very own nickname above my avatar. :D :D :clap: :woot:
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Hurray, long deserved :clap: I read this thread more than BBC Weather now :D
 
:) Thanks for all those positive comments! Of course, it goes without saying that it is a good idea to carry on keeping up to date with the big guys. I'm just merely a tomato farmer with a passion for all things meteorologically related.
Even now, with each and every passing hour, details are chopping and changing. There's even a subtle hint of the far southern region catching some snow after all.
But like I said, keep yourselves up to date in the proper way. But of course at the same time, keep the other eye on this thread. :) :wave:
 
Ian D J said:
But like I said, keep yourselves up to date in the proper way. But of course at the same time, keep the other eye on this thread. :) :wave:
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Well as far as I am concerned, in this area, at least, you have been far more accurate than the "paid liars"
( as a friend is so fond of calling the professional forecasters :D)
and your information comes further in advance too!

keep it up Ian I certainly enjoy your forecasts :thumbs:
 
My area too.....youve been spot on :)

Tomatos eh? I wondered what you did in your greenhouse...so youre partly to blame for those tasteless round red things we buy in tescos :lol:
 
Ian D J said:
Mmmm, fascinating . . . can see that the "medium" term forecast is now starting to fall in line with my prediction of a cold and snowy start to February.
Something to keep an eye out, methinks. :suspect:
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Managed to see her from a slightly elevated position just south of Biggin, NW of Selby. We had snow on the fields, clear skies and therefore sun. Cracking.

Unfortunately too busy gawping to actually get any decent shots.

I hope a few others managed to get to the line-side further south.
 
Cobra said:
Well as far as I am concerned, in this area, at least, you have been far more accurate than the "paid liars"
( as a friend is so fond of calling the professional forecasters :D)
and your information comes further in advance too!

keep it up Ian I certainly enjoy your forecasts :thumbs:
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:) Cheers. I'll try and keep up my accuracy rate. I'm sure I'll do a meteorological faceplant once in a while, though, by doing a Micheal Fish.
I have to admit, I am pleasantly surprised at my prediction for a cold and wintry February after what it has been a typical changeable January.

BeHappy said:
My area too.....youve been spot on :)

Tomatos eh? I wondered what you did in your greenhouse...so youre partly to blame for those tasteless round red things we buy in tescos :lol:
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:D If it's of any consolation, I hate tomatoes. I cannot stand the taste or smell of them.
But it does help to keep the bills at bay . . . just barely. :shake: :D

woadrage said:
Managed to see her from a slightly elevated position just south of Biggin, NW of Selby. We had snow on the fields, clear skies and therefore sun. Cracking.

Unfortunately too busy gawping to actually get any decent shots.

I hope a few others managed to get to the line-side further south.
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If the truth be told, there's more than enough snow-related photos to go around as it is, so I'm sure we can forgive you for not taking any snow-related photos.
Although it would be nice to take something just for memory's sake as I really don't know if this winter is just the start of a run of cold winters, or this is being just a one off and then this "global warming" business will pick up where it had left off from here onwards.
But that's really another discussion reserved for elsewhere other than this fine photo web site.
 
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Ian D J said:
:D Poor old Micheal Fish. I remember that forecast.

But in actual fact, it has been taken out of context. He was merely responding to a letter by a lady who was preparing to fly off to the Carribeans and she was worried about hurricanes down there.
It was sheer bad luck that he just happened to make a passing comment about that in his forecast, not realising we were about to have our very own "hurricane".
He did have an idea that winds were going to be strong to gales over southern England and mentioned that in his forecast but could only watch helplessly as the low pressure responsible for that "storm of the century" had suddenly exploded in strength over the next few hours as we went into the night. In other words, it became a powerful "bomb" depression while it was still out in the Atlantic, and that baby very rapidly moved eastwards over the next few hours.
It occured at a time when once warnings were being issued, most people were in bed being blissfully unaware of it . . . until that bomb depression was literally on top. Bear in mind that the interweb was still a twinkle in the eyes of some unknown computer geek so any warnings that were being issued went unnoticed by most people, unless they were happening to be listening to the radio in the middle of the night (we didn't have 24 hours telly programmes in those days).
So there you have it. :)
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Bless him.......
I did, and do even more now I know the story feel dreadfully sorry for him.
Thanks for sharing the story :thumbs:
Did this do any permanent damage to his career?
 
Ian D J said:
So, what does the weekend have in store for us, then?

On Sunday, a weak front will try and edge in from the west to bring cloudier conditions to the western side of the UK with the east seeing the best of the sunshine. Still on the cold side but not as cold as of late.
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:D
Snowing hard here almost a white out 30 minutes ago
( this was taken 10 minutes ago



IMG_5951.jpg
 
Useful little search on twitter - http://search.BANNED/search?q=#uksnow - just add the beginning of your postcode or the postcode of where you are going after the 'uksnow' bit in the search box, hit search and see if anyone has reported how much it is snowing there ;)

Doing a grand job Ian, I have never been so interested in the weather before, can never understand what they are going on about on TV, but yours makes sense :D
 
Dear Sage of Folkstone,
I am getting seriously peed off with the snow.What is now concerning me though is the flood risk when the milder weather returns.
Any thoughts Ian ?
Pete.
 
Cobra said:
:D
Snowing hard here almost a white out 30 minutes ago
( this was taken 10 minutes ago



IMG_5951.jpg
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Wow, you're getting a right pasting there. And it's not even the actual "storm" as expected on Monday night/Tuesday morning.
An occluded front is moving slowly from west to east over the UK as I type. It was supposed to be a bog-standard weak warm front but instead of arriving here as an actual warm front, the warm airmass is "riding" over the cold air that's currently sitting over the country.
As a result, it became active enough to produce snow in some places, but rain in other places (the latter which is occuring over here in Kent right now).

As for Micheal Fish's career being damaged by his infamous forecast, it probably made him all the more well-known . . . but for the wrong reasons. Still, he still carried on presenting weather forecasts until his retirement five years ago so he didn't do badly out of it. :D
 
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TheWombat said:
Dear Sage of Folkstone,
I am getting seriously peed off with the snow.What is now concerning me though is the flood risk when the milder weather returns.
Any thoughts Ian ?
Pete.
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Indeed, there will be the danger of flooding both caused by heavy rainfall, rain falling onto frozen soil and thawing snow (even a combination of all three in places!) over the next 48 hours. Some areas may recieve up to 40 mm of rain over the next two days. Areas most likely to be affected are the South West and the Home Counties.
However, the good news is that once that low pressure moves on and clears away from the South East by the end of Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure coming in from the west will help to settle things down for the rest of the week.
There will be wintry/snow showers rattling down the eastern side of the UK by the end of the week but they'll be well scattered and have good clear and sunny spells in between. Cold by night, though, with the continued risk of frost and icy conditions.
But at least it will be more settled for quite a while once this rough weather moves on out of the way, even though I can't see any milder temperatures not just yet.
 
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It's snowing pretty heavily here in NE Herts as well which is surprising as it felt quite mild a couple of hours ago.

Ian, you make this so much more interesting and I'm really enjoying your work, keep it up! :clap:
 
andy_fozzy said:
:eek: bloody hell :eek:
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:D its a tad white out there just now, though down to flurries at the moment
the sky looks as though it may still deliver a little more

susie said:
Please keep that to yourself, its not needed here!
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OK :D

Jimmy_Lemon said:
Doing a grand job Ian, I have never been so interested in the weather before, can never understand what they are going on about on TV, but yours makes sense :D
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Agreed :thumbs:

Ian D J said:
Wow, you're getting a right pasting there. And it's not even the actual "storm" as expected on Monday night/Tuesday morning.
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:D
We usually miss this or most of it as it gets hung up on the Chilterns
( Dunstable downs) but not this time! It seems to have blasted its way through
Oh well........
 
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