Undue worry over ebola or due diligence

Not misquoted, he was also viewed speaking on a video link from the UN to the 'authorities' in West Africa who were meeting to discuss the crisis.
I think it's time for all the doubters to admit that it's serious, it's not like any ebola outbreak before and unless things are tightened up considerably it could get a lot worse, even outside of West Africa.

All the 'it couldn't happen here because we're too good' is sounding a bit hollow in the light of the increasing reports from Spain,Texas ... and Heathrow.
 
rjbell said:
Norovirus isn't airborne, .
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yes it is

The notoriety of norovirus comes from the ease with which it spreads from one person to another: You can catch it by ingesting food or drink that's been contaminated, or by touching any contaminated surface, then touching your nose, mouth or eyes. The virus is also aerosolized, or sprayed into the air, when an infected person vomits or flushes a toilet, and can spread when a person inhales the virus.
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http://www.livescience.com/42944-what-is-norovirus.html

Ebola does not spread through Aerosol (thats what airborne means) but requires large droplet transmission - essentially like Aids (the reason its spread faster than Aids is that unlike Aids the virus causes bleeding , dioreah , etc and thus the potential sources of large droplets are greater. Norovirus also spreads via food , something like 70% of shellfish carry it , that also isnt a problem with ebolas if you arent eating bush meat.

In essence its far more contagious, its far easier caught, and its pattern of spread is completely different ..
 
Norivirus can only be caught orally ie the virus has to enter through your mouth and into the stomach.
Once in the body it lives only in the stomach and intestines, and the contents of both.
Droplets of either stool or vomit have to be ingested (I know,...gross) to infect, and it doesn't infect via the lungs or eye membranes.
Effective handwashing and keeping hands away from the mouth is the trick. Easier said than done.
 
gramps said:
All the 'it couldn't happen here because we're too good' is sounding a bit hollow in the light of the increasing reports from Spain,Texas ... and Heathrow.
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really 1 case in spain and two cases in Texas , all three from a breach of protocol on removing scrubs, indicates that it has beaten western medicine ? - all three cases were healthcare workers who were treating someone who was infected in liberia - thats hardly an outbreak (in fact its not an outbreak at all annd won't become one because the people concerned are quarantined and everyone who's been in contact with them are monitored) - I'm not sure what the heathrow point has to do with anyone as no one has been infected there.

No one is saying its not a serious situation - but its not a cause for panic and running arround saying we're dooomed I say doooomed (in fact in the unlikely event we did have an outbreak here running about panicking would still not be sensible or useful)

As i said earlier go aawy and look at the statistics for Flu (which on average kill more people in the UK every year than ebola has killed in the whole outbreak) then think about whether you are worrying unduly
 
It'll be interesting to reconvene in this thread in a months time and see how many outbreaks the UK has had by then. Those of us who are still alive anyway. :eek:
 
gramps said:
2 cases in Spain now!
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Link ? - i'm only seeing reference to one on the news channels and she appears to be recovering , but still even 2 its hardly "outbreak , we're all going to die teritory"

Personally I'll worry about it when it starts spreading person to person in the european population beyond health care workers working with liberian patients - although even if we had an uncontrolled outbreak in the UK (which i'd still say is unlikely) running arround panicking and spreading misinformation about how eaisly it spreads still wouldnt be sensible or useful
 
I stand by my initial view that

1. The situation is some places in Africa is very serious indeed. For humanitarian reasons (rather than self interest) we need to get a lot of help there very fast.

2. The situation everywhere else is nowhere near the serious point - and is very unlikely to get even close. There are many reasons for this but the main one is that (comparatively) Europe is very rich and has proper sanitation. Those 2 factors would slow something like this by orders of magnitude even if it were here which (apart from one room in one building) it isn't.

But I have to ask what is going on in these hospitals. It's very clear - in a suit you are safe. Like 100% safe. Taking it off should be safe if you know what you're doing. It boggles the mind that such serious mistakes have been made.

My mother worked for many years in a dedicated isolation hospital where they dealt with the truly dangerous stuff. Contamination of staff wasn't rare, it never happened. Never. It was so safe that when I was very young she'd take me to work with her. If there is a second case in Spain (and I can't see a link) then something is very badly wrong there. It's still a very long way from getting out of the room, much less the building but 2 infections from a secure zone are pretty much unheard of.
 
2nd Spanish nurse reported on lunchtime news.
The fact that the virus has been contracted by Western World professionals using full CDC protection highlights the seriousness of the situation - anyone thinking otherwise is

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gramps said:
The fact that the virus has been contracted by Western World professionals using full CDC protection highlights the seriousness of the situation
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Nope. The serious bit is the tens of thousands dying of it right now. But that's another country.

Out of interest, suppose you're right and I'm wrong and there is a real chance of a large scale outbreak in the UK...what are you going to do about it? I.e. what difference does it make what any of us think?
 
JonathanRyan said:
Nope. The serious bit is the tens of thousands dying of it right now. But that's another country.
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Absolutely agree, it's tragic for West Africa :(

JonathanRyan said:
Out of interest, suppose you're right and I'm wrong and there is a real chance of a large scale outbreak in the UK...what are you going to do about it? I.e. what difference does it make what any of us think?
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Well hopefully there won't be a large scale outbreak, however.
1) We need to have serious 'barriers' at ports of entry to avoid the virus just 'walking through' ... optional testing isn't right.
2) We need to be aware of the risks in order to prevent infection and clearly those who think 'it'll never happen' aren't prepared for a possible risk. The fact that serious professionals have been infected shows that the virus is not contained.
 
gramps said:
. The fact that serious professionals have been infected shows that the virus is not contained.
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the fact that proffesionals have been infected after not following CDC protocols shows nothing of the sort - just follow the damn protocols - the fact that they havent infected anyone else shows in fact that the virus is contained.

You say you need to be aware of the risks to avoid infection, fine these are the things you need to know

1) Stay the f*** away from anyone with ebola .. um that's it (and as people who arent symptomatic aren't infectious , and anyone who is symptomatic is unlikely to be wandering arround this ought to be pretty straight forward unless you work in the medical proffesion )

Oh and don't have sex with a male ebola survivor for at least three months

If you do have to deal with anyone with ebola (such as a close family member - which is pretty unlikely unless they are a health proffesional involved in treating ebola patients) Wear rubber gloves, wear goggles to protect your eyes , don't touch your face with your gloved hands, and wash everything with a s*** load of bleach, and get them into propper medical care asap (its the last two bits which make a big difference between 1st and third world situations)

No one is burying their head in the sand, what we're saying is get your info from sources you can trust (like the CDC or WHO) not anywhere where sensationalising it helps sell papers /advertising, and for the love of all thats holy stop panicking, panic may be a natural biological consequence of the flight mechanism, but this isnt a big scary cat, you arent a springbok , and panic is detrimental to the situation as a whole.
 
I just saw something on IFL science that sums this up

in the US

Obesity related illness and conditions kill 300,000 people a year , Tobacco related illness kill 450,000 people per year, alcohol abuse related ilness and conditions kill about 88,000 a year - so anyone who's sat on their couch eating a Big Mac and fries, smoking a fag, and drinking a can of lager whilst watching the 24 hour updates on ebola and panicking, really needs to reassess their priorities

But hey obesity heart disease liver failure and stroke arent sexy , and the govt's too scared of the corporate interests to do anything about their root causes anyways so hey everyone 2 people in an isolation ward in texas have got ebola , WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE
 
big soft moose said:
the fact that proffesionals have been infected after not following CDC protocols shows nothing of the sort
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Where is the evidence that CDC protocols have not been followed in Spain & Texas?
 
CDC director Tom Frieden talking about the texas case, from here http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/t1012-ebola-reponse-update.html

at some point there was a breach in protocol and that breach in protocol resulted in this infection.
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Now okay that is absolutely evidence, but on one hand we have the opinion of some bloke in an armchair , on the other we have the opinion of the director of thecentre for disease control whilst briefing his colleagues .. now no offence but i do think its prbably a teeny bit more likely that Tom Frieden is the one who knows what he's talking about
 
With regard to spain from here http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/08/ebola-spanish-health-workers-poor-training-virus

Germán Ramírez said he had spoken to the nurse three times in an effort to home in how she got infected. Romero Ramos, he said, believes she might have touched her face with her gloves while she was taking off her protective equipment.
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and (same article)

For Amelia Batanero, a nurse at Madrid’s La Paz hospital, the call to attend to the growing number of Ebola patients could come any day now as she is on the rotation list to work at the Carlos III hospital. This, in spite of the fact that she has never stepped foot in the hospital or that her only training took place months ago. “We haven’t learned how to use these suits, we don’t know the protocol on how to treat Ebola,” she said. In July she was part of a group of nurses in Madrid who brought a complaint before a judge over their “lack of training and knowledge regarding Ebola protocols”.
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seems pretty conclusive (though to be honest i do wonder about the lack of training thing - how much training does it take to absorb "don't touch your skin with your gloves or gown whilst removing your PPE "
 
So the 'barrier provisions' to contain the ebola virus failed ... in Spain and Texas and people got infected - tell me why we should expect it to get any better anytime soon?

Protocols are set out and followed by humans who inherently make mistakes - the virus doesn't make allowances for that.
 
On the morning of Oct. 14, the second healthcare worker reported to the hospital with a low-grade fever and was isolated. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms that the second healthcare worker who tested positive last night for Ebola traveled by air Oct. 13, the day before she reported symptoms.

Because of the proximity in time between the evening flight and first report of illness the following morning, CDC is reaching out to passengers who flew on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth Oct. 13.

CDC is asking all 132 passengers on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on October 13 (the flight route was Cleveland to Dallas Fort Worth and landed at 8:16 p.m. CT) to call 1 800-CDC INFO (1 800 232-4636). After 1 p.m. ET, public health professionals will begin interviewing passengers about the flight, answering their questions, and arranging follow up. Individuals who are determined to be at any potential risk will be actively monitored.

The healthcare worker exhibited no signs or symptoms of illness while on flight 1143, according to the crew. Frontier is working closely with CDC to identify and notify passengers who may have traveled on flight 1143 on Oct. 13. Passengers who may have traveled on flight 1143 should contact CDC at 1 800-CDC INFO (1 800 232-4636).
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http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/...rom-cdc-and-frontier-airlines-on-flight-1143/
 
Ok...

I've installed air locks and extractor units. I'm wearing my full NBC suit and have a 3 year supply of food in.

I've killed the cat to stop him wanting to go outside.

What else should I do to maximise my chances of survival?
 
I don't regard either of those 2 as conclusive evidence, in the second the "Might" makes it a possibility, not a certainty.
In the first case, it isn't so much based on evidence, more thats the only way he can think of. Again, it's not a 100% certainty and neither are convulsive as evidence, simply convenient theories. It's actually more a case of what you have chosen to hang on your hat onto.

Even if it is the way it was transmitted, and keeping in mind that these are medical professionals who have caught it in spite of considerable effort to avoid infection.

It only takes Ebola to get into the lower end of the social order in the US, where there is no real National Health Service, and going sick at work is less common because the benefits aren't there, for it to become a serious problem in the US. Yes, it may be controllable, eventually, but thats not as simple as it may seem, in densely packed social housing.

The same applies to the UK, while we do have an NHS, so health care is free, the likely carriers once through the joke of testing at airports, are not likely to be in jobs where sick pay is one of the perks. Again, it means there's a good chance of this getting into the population, and in some communities it will spread like wildfire.

Again, it's controllable, eventually, but the measures needed will doubtless be putting dinner on the table for the Human rights lawyers and Constitutional lawyers in the US, while they serve their own interests not the populations.
 
You're right, I shouldn't, but the KGB captured me in the early '90s. They fitted brain implants to force me to spread panic throughout the decadent West.

Do you think automatic target selection mini-guns on the roof would help?
 
big soft moose said:
seems pretty conclusive (though to be honest i do wonder about the lack of training thing - how much training does it take to absorb "don't touch your skin with your gloves or gown whilst removing your PPE "
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We touch our face around 16 times an hour. We do it without thinking.
 
gramps said:
Where is the evidence that CDC protocols have not been followed in Spain & Texas?
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I don't know about Spain, but I was reading this earlier about Texas : http://abcnews.go.com/Health/dallas-nurses-hospital-sloppy-ebola-protocols-union/story?id=26205956

Co-workers of a Dallas nurse who contracted Ebola from a sick patient say they worked for days without proper protective gear and that the hospital’s Ebola protocols and procedures were unclear and inadequate, leaving workers and hospital systems prone to contamination, according to a statement by the largest U.S. nurses’ union.

The statement, which was provided by National Nurses United on behalf of several registered nurses at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, details hospital procedures after Thomas Eric Duncan arrived at the hospital. The nurses are not represented by the union, and the group declined to reveal the nurses’ identities.
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Nurses who interacted with Duncan were given the option of wearing special N95 masks, but some supervisors said the masks were not necessary, the nurses said, according to the statement.

“For their necks, nurses had to use medical tape, that is not impermeable and has permeable seams, to wrap around their necks in order to protect themselves, and had to put on the tape and take it off on their own,” the statement reads.

“Nurses had to interact with Mr. Duncan with whatever protective equipment was available, at a time when he had copious amounts of diarrhea and vomiting which produces a lot of contagious fluids.”
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Of course, depending on your outlook, you can either take reassurance from this that if protocols are properly followed risk will be reduced and it's likely not air-borne else ALL of the carers would likely be showing symptoms by now . . .
OR
you can take it as an indication that the great medical system of the Western world isn't quite all that great after all :runaway:

(p.s. That's a general 'you' not you specifically @gramps . . . although the quotes were in response to your question)
 
simon ess said:
Do you think automatic target selection mini-guns on the roof would help?
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nah you want them on the heli carriers to target all the sick people [/captain america]
 
Yv said:
Has anyone read this yet? http://www.theeventchronicle.com/ebola/ghana-ebola-real-people-gotten-sick-got-shots-red-cross/

Ebola doesn't exist apparently [sorry if its already been covered in this thread]
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sigh - along with the theory that the MSF medics brought the infection into the country with them ... some people are, excuse my french, f*****g idiots - along with the belief that drinking salt water will protect you (two people in nigeria have died from excessive salt consumption under that misguided belief) , eating an onion a day will protect you (probably an onion seller came up with that one), and that a witch doctor can give you good juju so you don'y get the disease.... this sort of thing is partly to blame for the spread

plus of course equattorial giunea is an utter s***hole (its reputed to be where fredrick forsythe was thinking of when he wrote 'the dogs of war') and liberia isnt much better and siera leone is, if possible, worse which let the infection get going initially.

anyway i'm done arguing about this, life is too short. Gramps is entitled to panic if he wants, who am I to stop him
 
rjbell said:
We touch our face around 16 times an hour. We do it without thinking.
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this is true , but you'd think you wouldnt do it when covered in a lethal virus - I do a fair bit of herbicides spraying but ive never got herbicide on my face by touching my face while wearing the PPE , you're just told not to and warned of the grim consequences if you do and then you don't ... it doesnt take a lot of training
 
TBF though Pete.

When I was 13, at a rather strict boarding school, all the threats of grim consequences couldn't stop me touching my cock.
 
What a pity that some people cannot discuss this matter without swearing and making infantile comments - the projected infection increase, if not contained, according to WHO is 10,000 per week ... every week ... and rising - anyone thinking this isn't serious needs to re-think.
 
big soft moose said:
this is true , but you'd think you wouldnt do it when covered in a lethal virus - I do a fair bit of herbicides spraying but ive never got herbicide on my face by touching my face while wearing the PPE , you're just told not to and warned of the grim consequences if you do and then you don't ... it doesnt take a lot of training
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Dunno. It doesn't matter how often I remind myself not to rub my eyes when I'm cutting chillies......

Yv said:
Has anyone read this yet? http://www.theeventchronicle.com/ebola/ghana-ebola-real-people-gotten-sick-got-shots-red-cross/

Ebola doesn't exist apparently [sorry if its already been covered in this thread]
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Yeah I saw that bob up yesterday. From the slowness of the website, I assume a lot of people saw it. In a way it's an extreme version of this thread. It doesn't matter what evidence anybody presents, nobody here is going to change their mind on anything.

Fortunately it doesn't really matter. Either it's nothing to worry about or other people are getting well paid to do the worrying. Meantime, it's National Flu Day (yeah really). We know for a fact that's going to kill between 5 and 15,000 people in the UK this year (it was low last year so they are expecting a big one this year - a bit like the apple harvest). I think I might just go into hiding until spring.
 
JonathanRyan said:
Meantime, it's National Flu Day (yeah really). We know for a fact that's going to kill between 5 and 15,000 people in the UK this year (it was low last year so they are expecting a big one this year - a bit like the apple harvest). I think I might just go into hiding until spring.
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Thumping great swelling on my arm from the jab on Tuesday!
 
JonathanRyan said:
Dunno. It doesn't matter how often I remind myself not to rub my eyes when I'm cutting chillies......
.
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just don't go to the toilet japrenadotinglyfingerspeewillyburn ;)
 
gramps said:
- the projected infection increase, if not contained, according to WHO is 10,000 per week ... every week ... and rising - anyone thinking this isn't serious needs to re-think.
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Sigh (again) this is what I meant about media misquoting - that was on the front of several papers yesterday but what the Who spokesman actually said was the "in the worst case scenario, if the precautions to contain it were not implemented 5000-10,000 cases per week might be seen in west africa"

unfortunately the media arent capable of grasping / don't care about subtlties like "worst case scenario" and " might" and "if precautions arent implemented" and just latch on the headline figure

Similarly the Sun ( i think) had " Fiona Bruce in Make up artist ebola panic " - but if you actually read the fine print has Fiona Bruce got ebola ? nope, has her make up artist got ebola ? Nope, has anyone at the BBC studio where Fiona Bruce works got ebola or been in contact with anyone who has ? umm nope - so whats the actual story ,

well some MUA artists have told fiona bruce they are a bit woried about the risk of catching ebola if her show interviews someone who might have it and its been suggested that people from liberia and seria leone be interviewed by skype instead.

But " MUA a bit woried" doesnt sell papers
 
BBC remarkably sensible for click-hungry, mainstream media today. Pointing out the WHO have said large outbreaks in the West or anywhere else with decent medical infrastructure are very unlikely.
Something sensible commentators have long been trying to point out.
 
sturisoma said:
so....did you actually read my source? Let me quote part of it for you...

A low risk exposure includes any of the following

being within approximately 3 feet (1 meter) of an EVD patient or within the patient’s room or care area for a prolonged period of time (e.g., health care personnel, household members) while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment (i.e., standard, droplet, and contact precautions


would you be happy to sit on an aeroplane with someone who has Ebola?
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I wonder why authorities are 'desperately' searching for the 2nd Texas nurse's fellow passengers on her flight from Ohio to Texas?
 
sturisoma said:
I wonder why authorities are 'desperately' searching for the 2nd Texas nurse's fellow passengers on her flight from Ohio to Texas?
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I suspect that's media hype too.
They don't have to desperately search for anyone.
The flight will have a passenger manifest, can't board a flight in the US now without valid ID. All traceable.
That's in theory of course, but I doubt they're "desperately searching" for anyone.
 
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