Undue worry over ebola or due diligence

Blank_Canvas said:
I'm flying back to the UK tomorrow from Kos. The trouble with the air conditioning on these jets is that if someone's got a cold. It's recirculated around the aircraft - I'm bound to pick a cold, there's always someone with one. I wonder what the effect would be with someone with Ebola?
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None. Ebola isn't spread that way. See about 50% of the posts in this thread ;)
 
JonathanRyan said:
That I didn't know.
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I may have unintentionally misled you ... I'm not talking about the '50 under observation' in Spain, I'm talking about the nurse from Australia, the doctor from the UK, and the others from the US ... all trained specifically to work with ebola victims in West Africa.
 
Blank_Canvas said:
Some reports are suggesting we don't fully know how it's spread.
Close contact is also an issue is not ?
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Actual contact with bodily fluids, which may include tears and sneezed 'material' ... personally I wouldn't want to be on a plane with an ebola victim.
And of course all the discussion about plane travel doesn't address the issue of illegal immigrants ... you only have to think Calais.
 
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Blank_Canvas said:
I'm flying back to the UK tomorrow from Kos. The trouble with the air conditioning on these jets is that if someone's got a cold. It's recirculated around the aircraft - I'm bound to pick a cold, there's always someone with one. I wonder what the effect would be with someone with Ebola?
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If they vomit? Have an educated guess. Same would apply to underground / trains.
 
Blank_Canvas said:
Some reports are suggesting we don't fully know how it's spread.
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Those reports are wrong.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html

Note that the first bit that says we don't know about the natural reservoir means that we haven't yet proved how patient 0 gets it but it's probably from eating bats or something similar.

Blank_Canvas said:
Close contact is also an issue is not ?
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Close contact with bodily fluids, yes. Close contact in general, not so much.
 
gramps said:
Actual contact with bodily fluids, which may include tears and sneezed 'material' ... personally I wouldn't want to be on a plane with an ebola victim.
And of course all the discussion about plane travel doesn't address the issue of illegal immigrants ... you only have to think Calais.
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Good point. The recirculated air always is a breeding ground of sniffles but I suspect it cannot survive being airborne terribly long. Its a risk but not an overiding one.

Illegals at calais, my long held view is they are illegally invading Britain and as such they are acting war and should be shot if caught trying. It would solve the issue
 
sturisoma said:
doctors are now saying you can catch it from a sneeze, so airborne? I think we should be worried - look how quickly it has spread in Africa. All spread by travellers.
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you can catch it from a sneezer if an infected person sneezes directly in your face and you get it in your eyes and mouth ... you can't get it from aerosol transmission like you do the flu

When you say "look how quickly its spread in africa" - its spread from a handful of index cases a year ago to about 4000 deaths ... that isnt a quick spread. Look at how fast swine flu spread with the following stats in the same timeframe

  • CDC estimates that between 43 million and 89 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 61 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
  • CDC estimates that between about 195,000 and 403,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 274,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
  • CDC estimates that between about 8,870 and 18,300 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 12,470 2009 H1N1-related deaths.
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If ebola was really airbourne we'd be seeing that kind of spread and a higher fatality - but we arent, because it isnt. The reason its spread in africa is poor sanitation, stupid rituals and interacting with corpses during funerals, poor understanding of what the risks are, and a high number of index cases resulting from the consumption of bush meat.
 
JonathanRyan said:
Note that the first bit that says we don't know about the natural reservoir means that we haven't yet proved how patient 0 gets it but it's probably from eating bats or something similar.

.
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I thought they had nailedfthe natural reservoir down to 4 species of Fruit bat. Its also thought to be transmitted from those bats to pigs (not an issue in the west i hasten to add, only in the topical region where those bats are found)

WHO and CDC both say that it is probanble that the index patient gets it from either eating bush meat or "interacting" with dead or dying animals found in the rain forest.

The other thing i'd say to those getting worked up about theoreticasl routes of infection is that those routes also apply to HIV/Aids which also requires droplet transmission - remember all the hoo ha when aids was first discovered you could get it from sneezes, you can get it from toilet seats, you can get it from saliva on cups, old needles discared in the street and blah blah blah , all b*****ks. No one has ever got aids from a toilet seat, or sitting next to an aids victim on an areoplane, but it didnt stop all the hysteria.

I have a good freind who's HIV positive (she got it from her now Ex husband, and he got it from shagging prostitutes) , I'll happily go to her house, drink from her cups, use her toilet, kiss her good bye (on the cheek etc) because i'm not a paranoid idiot... I wouldnt sleep with her, or let her give me a blood transfusion , and if she cut herself i'd be careful about rendering first aid ( I would but i'd wear gloves and clean up carefully afterwards) but that aside theres no real risk.
 
Also another stat - with the flu season aproaching you have significantly higher chance of contracting and dying from influenza (either standard flu or swine flu) which causes between 250k and 500k deaths globally every year (more in epidemic years) , in the Uk its between 3k and 12k per year - that is every year flu kills roughly the same number of people in the uk as ebola has so far in africa.

Its airborne , its very easy to contract and difficult to defend yourself against (the vacine isnt 100% effective and retrovirals arent in great supply and don't always work anyway), and its already here - and while Haemoragic fever is a horrbile way to go, dying of influenza int exactly pleasant either.
 
Another health worker has been infected from an ebola victim, this time in Texas:-

A preliminary test shows a Texas health worker who treated Ebola victim Thomas Duncan before he died is also infected with the virus, US officials say.
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{BBC News}

The health worker was said to be at "low risk" of contracting the virus and had been wearing full protective 'equipment' ... 18 others are being "monitored".

Being reported that the victim Thomas Duncan came to the hospital, stated that he had come from Liberia and had a fever and was sent home with anti-biotics ... it is thought that the health worker was infected when Thomas Duncan returned unwell to the hospital ... the heath worker was not quarantined for 90 mins!
{Sky News}
 
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notice how its only health workers who are in close proximity to the ill people ... ergo its not airborne, if it was other people would be getting infected.

Its doubful the health worker concerned was wearing a Racal suit , as they are only used when health proffesional know they are dealing with EVD - chances are "full protective equipment means greens and a face mask - so his upper face and eyes were unprotected

Its also noticeable that these health workers have not infected anyone else themselves... if it were airborne everyone they had been in contact with would be getting it.

If it was as dangerous as books like Hotzone would have you believe the heath workers would go home and infect everyone they came into contact with, then those people would in fect their freinds and family and so on outward into a mass epidemic

but that isnt happening

It isnt even happening like that in west africa
 
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The worker was involved in Duncan's second visit to the hospital, when he was admitted for treatment, and was wearing protective gear as prescribed by the CDC -- gown, gloves, mask and shield.
A "close contact" of the worker has been "proactively" placed in isolation.
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{CNN}
 
and do we know for sure that he didnt touch his face , or any area of bare skin with a gloved finger , or that he didnt touch the outside of his gloves or gown etc while removing them ? - given how its known to spread those are more likely routes of infection
 
As Ebola virus can survive on dried surfaces can survive for several hours it could be half way around the world on a plane quite easily. Though I still think the risk to individuals here is low.

Dave
 
gramps said:
{CNN}
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He must have touched some of the protective clothing with his bare hand after shift. Or maybe the vomit / blood got into his respirator. I can't see any other way.
 
Tringa said:
As Ebola virus can survive on dried surfaces can survive for several hours it could be half way around the world on a plane quite easily. Though I still think the risk to individuals here is low.

Dave
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Only if the surfaces arent cleaned with soaps, bleach,or other cleaning agents, frozen, heated above 40 deg C or exposed to UV light, all of which kill the virus pretty much instantly

This is why no infections have resulted from Mr Duncan alledgedly vommiting on the pavement before he went to the hospital ... its texas, so hot, dry, lots of sunlight - the virus in that puddle of vomit was toast virtually instantly.

When you look at the infections in africa in detail - of the ones they can track (which is most of them) nearly all of them are are a result of giving close personal care to a loved one or freind - this is why its 'only' 4000 or so deaths across 4 countries. I'm not saying its not bad , but its not "outbreak" (that work of fiction had ebola mutating to spread like the flu , if that had happened we'd be looking at millions of deaths, not a few thousand)

End of the day we probably will see a population decimating pandemic sooner or later, but this isnt it.

my money would be on a super flu - swine flu was relatively benign so though it spread like buggery it didnt kill many of its victims and it was reasonably responsive to anti virals ... if we see a worst case scenario like human to human transmission of H5N1 it will make ebola look like a storm in a teacup
 
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daugirdas said:
He must have touched some of the protective clothing with his bare hand after shift. Or maybe the vomit / blood got into his respirator. I can't see any other way.
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According to the CNN account he was wearing a surgical mask not a respirator ... but i agree the chances are he got it on his hands somehow then touched his eyes or mouth (probably right at the beggining of the second visit before they realised they were dealing with ebola)
 
big soft moose said:
End of the day we probably will see a population decimating pandemic sooner or later, but this isnt it.
my money would be on a super flu - swine flu was relatively benign so though it spread like buggery it didnt kill many of its victims and it was reasonably responsive to anti virals ... if we see a worst case scenario like human to human transmission of H5N1 it will make ebola look like a storm in a teacup
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This - it will happen one day, I think I view it as inevitable that nature will win the war we have been waging on the planet for the past 200 or so years.

D
 
But Dr. Tom Frieden, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Sunday raised concerns about a possible breach of safety protocol and told CBS's Face the Nation that among the things CDC will investigate is how the workers took off that gear — because removing it incorrectly can lead to a contamination.
"I think the fact that we don't know of a breach in protocol is concerning, because clearly there was a breach in protocol."
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ebola-test-on-texas-health-care-worker-comes-back-positive-1.2796433
 
However it was contracted by the health worker, it clearly indicates that the virus has been underestimated by health services and people have been foolish to consider it 'safe' outside of areas with "poor medical conditions" such as found in West Africa.
If it can be spread in a prepared and equipped modern health service provision in Spain and the US, it can be spread anywhere!
 
gramps said:
However it was contracted by the health worker, it clearly indicates that the virus has been underestimated by health services and people have been foolish to consider it 'safe' outside of areas with "poor medical conditions" such as found in West Africa.
If it can be spread in a prepared and equipped modern health service provision in Spain and the US, it can be spread anywhere!
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Sigh - it isnt being spread to the general public outside of west africa, both CDC and WHO have said all along that health care workers caring for paitents are at a greater risk - especially if they don't stick to protocols. NO one has under estimated it, some people just havent actually listened to what the experts have been saying.

No one is ever going to consider it safe - but it is very difficult to contract it in the west if you arent a healthcare worker

Even in west africa most of the cases are the result of people providing direct care... which is why its not spreading that fast even there. (other routes of infection such as bush meatrt and interacting with corpses arent an issue in the west)

As I said higher up look at the stats on how swine flu spread arround the globe ... thats what an airborne virus epidemic looks like. Fortunately Ebola while a nasty thing is not showing that degree of contagion.

People are always going to be fearful of diseses without cures , but realistically as i said earlier, in the UK you are at a greater risk from influenza. (whether Swine or standard), and also a greater risk from heart diseasem, stroke, and cancer... however those arent sexy so don't sell newspapers
 
jimbo_loony.jpg
 
You may well "sigh", it doesn't change what has happened - everyone has been arguing for the safety of 'first world' medical care ... it has been proven that 'first world' healthcare was not up to the ebola virus.
Whilst it is yet to be shown that any member of the "general public" has been infected or has been in danger of being infected we do not know the identity of all of those who are now being monitored.
However, bearing in mind that Thomas Duncan was released into the public arena after being sent home with ebola and anti-biotics, who is to say the extent of the risk to the public ... what I do know is that, given the information provided at the time of his first appearance in hospital, the risk was unacceptable and questionably caused by irresponsible actions.
 
gramps said:
You may well "sigh", it doesn't change what has happened - everyone has been arguing for the safety of 'first world' medical care ... it has been proven that 'first world' healthcare was not up to the ebola virus.
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Indeed and the safety of first world medical care has so far meant that no one other than 2 medical staff (who may not have followed protocol) has been infected outside africa ... so in fact no its not been proven that its not up to it, in fact the reverse is true. (and I sigh because you so obviously want to be scared and alarmist instead of dealing with the facts)

Theres a lot of varied reporting about thomas duncan - some reports say he denied being from liberia during his first visit when he was sent home - however at that stage he wasnt symptomatic anyway , and thus not infectious - when he returned he was symptomatic and at that point he was quarantined ... the people under observation are the 18 medical staff who dealth with him on his return and other people who've been in close contact with him where he was staying ... these people are under observation as a precaution but have not so far shown any adverse symptoms
 
The Medical Director at the Texas hospital confirmed that he stated he had fever and had come from Liberia and the current worldwide 'phone-in' by doctors to the authorities concerned in Texas (being relayed on Sky News) has shown them quick to state that the system there has failed and that they need to 'step up' their control procedures ... presumably you think they are being alarmist.
 
No , i think they are correct , they have failed to follow the protocols laid down by CDC, and need to step up their procedures to ensure they follow them in future - if they do in a first world setting they will not have a problem handling the virus

You on the other hand are being alarmist in stating that it has been shown that 1st world medical care cannot handle ebola, when in fact nothing of the sort has been proven - all thats been shown so far is that if you don't follow protocol as a care giver then you are at more serious risk , which isnt exactly rocket science.

As i said earlier I'm strongly reminded of all the furore about Aids when that first broke out, you cvould catch it from toilet seats, you could catch it from coffee cups, what if someone had been to the toilet and then shook your hand , it was going to mutate and KILL US ALL... all of which proved to be b*****ks.

End of the day some people like to read sensensationalist rubbish and panic ... for the rest of us theres the CDC and the WHO websites
 
crofter said:
WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE,
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thats not exactly news , unless anyone was expecting the secret of imortality to be discovered
 
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crofter said:
all passengers alighting from aircraft should be run through a tank of sheep dip at the airport, works for sheep, how many of them suffer from Ebola, I usually pop a drop in my bath.
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I recomend we close our borders to all aircraft and have the RAF splash them if they won't turn back , ferries and ships can be likewise sunk by our submarines and the channel tunnel is to be blown up. The Army should then patrol all our beaches and harbours and stop any craft from landing or putting to sea.

We could also carry out a prolonged nuclear strike on west africa using trident missiles to irradiate the disease at source

Okay so we'll be global paraihs, many will starve, we'll run out of fuel, the economy will go down the toilet and most of us will be out of work , but at least we'll be safe from ebola (y)
 
2nd nurse confirmed as infected with the ebola virus at Texas hospital as UN official says "ebola is winning the race".

The UN's Ebola mission chief says the world is falling behind in the race to contain the virus, with thousands of new cases predicted by December. "It is running faster than us, and it is winning the race," Anthony Banbury told the UN Security Council.
The World Health Organization (WHO) says 4,447 people have died from the outbreak, mainly in West Africa.
Meanwhile, a second health worker in the US state of Texas has become infected with the virus.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29625481

Meanwhile...

Travellers arriving at Heathrow from West Africa say they were given the choice of whether they were screened for Ebola or not
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ngers-surprised-at-optional-Ebola-checks.html
 
I think its definitely something to worry about. The fact of the matter lots of people are dirty buggers and don't wash there hand after going to toilet. Ebola is like
norovirus spread by body fluids like stool, and look how quickly that takes hold of cruise ships, hospital, office blocks, schools etc..

If we she any cases in south wales my boy won't be going to school.
 
Be interesting to see the hysteria that ensues if a family member / friend of one of these infected health workers also comes down with it.
 
this will be the same UN official who predicted it would be under control by December last week - either he's being extensively misquoted (which is likely he was probably talking worst case/best case) or he's a politician with limited grasp on the facts. Thousands of new cases by december was a worst case prediction if measures put in place to control it don't work or are not adhered to.

INcidentally the Norrovirus is airborne, Ebola isnt, so saying it spreads like the norrovirus isnt really accurate - Ebola requires large droplet transmission ie blood, mucus, stool etc, it doesnt spread from an aerosol spray in a sneeze (you could get it if a sufferer sneezed directly in your face but not from the air).
 
big soft moose said:
INcidentally the Norrovirus is airborne, Ebola isnt, so saying it spreads like the norrovirus isnt really accurate - Ebola requires large droplet transmission ie blood, mucus, stool etc, it doesnt spread from an aerosol spray in a sneeze (you could get it if a sufferer sneezed directly in your face but not from the air).
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Norovirus isn't airborne, and spread much the same way as ebola through bodily fluids i.e s*** on peoples hands, because they haven't washed them!. There is also some evidence of ebola spreading between animals in separate cages from water particals/droplets in the air in short distances too large to be classed as airborne, which again like norovirus but this isn't the same as airborne.
 
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