The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Bobsyeruncle said:
Plans have to be adaptable when you are dealing with something so unprecedented.
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But there was a precedent, two of them actually, China and Italy.

China quickly assessed the seriousness and took drastic actions to halt it. Italy didn't initially but quickly ramped that up.

Boris the banjostring however thought he'd take a different route to the hard won experience out there, ignore what the WHO were saying and devise a new strategy. I don't believe for one second he was only following the science although I'll concede that's subjective. I suspect he persuaded the scientists to come up with a plan that minimised financial damage and allowed him to hide behind it.

Containment failed immediately as they wouldn't quarantine tourists coming in or returning to the country from infected areas. Then they came up with this flattening the sombrero stuff. By their own numbers worst case scenario was about 80% contract it with 7.9 million hospitalised . The 15,000 or so empty hospital beds in England were going to be a bit crowded
 
dod said:
But there was a precedent, two of them actually, China and Italy.

China quickly assessed the seriousness and took drastic actions to halt it. Italy didn't initially but quickly ramped that up.

Boris the banjostring however thought he'd take a different route to the hard won experience out there, ignore what the WHO were saying and devise a new strategy. I don't believe for one second he was only following the science although I'll concede that's subjective. I suspect he persuaded the scientists to come up with a plan that minimised financial damage and allowed him to hide behind it.

Containment failed immediately as they wouldn't quarantine tourists coming in or returning to the country from infected areas. Then they came up with this flattening the sombrero stuff. By their own numbers worst case scenario was about 80% contract it with 7.9 million hospitalised . The 15,000 or so empty hospital beds in England were going to be a bit crowded
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I'm sorry but your middle paragraph is plain fantasy nonsense.
Its his job to consider the financial s but to say he influenced or pressured the CSO and CMO is a massive leap.
 
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dod said:
But there was a precedent, two of them actually, China and Italy.

China quickly assessed the seriousness and took drastic actions to halt it. Italy didn't initially but quickly ramped that up.

Boris the banjostring however thought he'd take a different route to the hard won experience out there, ignore what the WHO were saying and devise a new strategy. I don't believe for one second he was only following the science although I'll concede that's subjective. I suspect he persuaded the scientists to come up with a plan that minimised financial damage and allowed him to hide behind it.

Containment failed immediately as they wouldn't quarantine tourists coming in or returning to the country from infected areas. Then they came up with this flattening the sombrero stuff. By their own numbers worst case scenario was about 80% contract it with 7.9 million hospitalised . The 15,000 or so empty hospital beds in England were going to be a bit crowded
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Ok, so if we've got it so wrong, we'll soon be in a worse position than both China and Italy.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Ok, so if we've got it so wrong, we'll soon be in a worse position than both China and Italy.
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probably :( I hope not but we've been slow to react to this.
 
dod said:
probably :( I hope not but we've been slow to react to this.
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Don't the figures for our current stage suggest otherwise?
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
I'm not sure that's the case.
I think what we've done so far has been calculated and measured to be more effective overall.
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We've both got an opinion. I hope yours is right :)

Edit: not posting anymore on this, time will tell :)
 
Cockney said:
Don't the figures for our current stage suggest otherwise?
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No, because we're not counting most of the cases (those outside hospital). Initially we were counting some community infections (those linked to travel, and their contacts) but then chose to focus entirely on hospital cases (there wasn't much choice, because we didn't ramp up testing quickly enough). Now (see my previous post) we're belatedly coming round to the idea that widespread community testing is vital, just as the WHO has been saying all along, and just as South Korea has been doing all along:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
 
Retune said:
No, because we're not counting most of the cases (those outside hospital). Initially we were counting some community infections (those linked to travel, and their contacts) but then chose to focus entirely on hospital cases (there wasn't much choice, because we didn't ramp up testing quickly enough). Now (see my previous post) we're belatedly coming round to the idea that widespread community testing is vital, just as the WHO has been saying all along, and just as South Korea has been doing all along:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
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I think the number of dead is a firm number.
 
The mind boggles :rolleyes:

Yesterday, the adult son of a friend of ours went to a Midlands hospital for a scan .He was taken into a waiting room adjacent to the scan machine. There were three other patients there. He sat down and was completely absorbed in filling in a questionnaire about his health and any implants,metals etc..the usual one that patients get pre-scan. I'm sure he must have been aware of a patient who was put into a chair alongside him but he carried on then realised it was a man who was wearing an oxygen mask attached to a bottle of oxygen .The nurse was with him and being concerned about the virus asked if her if he had corona virus to which the nurse replied. "Yes".

We aren't sure if he left there and then..I imagine so. My wife has sent an Email to his mum asking this question. Anyway, he left and drove home with the car window open. He has a wife and 7 year old daughter so he's now living in their caravan on the front drive. His mum is making a complaint to the hospital and contacting her MP. It's why I haven't identified the hospital.
 
arclight said:
The epidemic in China is near to being stable. Population 1.5 billion .......... deaths 3,000
UK population 65 million ......... estimated deaths 260,000. That is a grossly disproportion figure.

All I am saying is that whoever arrived at 260,000 needs to explain why that for every single person who has died in China 80 will die in the UK.
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Totally agree! However I think we should ignore China's figures as they can't be trusted. They are still in denial the virus originated in their country. I think it would be better to estimate from following figures from South Korea, Italy and Spain with South Korea being the best example and Italy the worst, so far.
 
Watched the chancellor unveil his financial reply to the crisis earlier ,I believe Jeremy dustbins reply was well I offered them free internet :wave::wave::wave:
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Yes.

Number of deaths per number tested is pointless.
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I don't agree with that as the number of deaths from positive coronavirus out of the total number tested gives the current mortality rate. It's going to change yes, but it's still the mortality rate at a given time.
 
the black fox said:
Watched the chancellor unveil his financial reply to the crisis earlier ,I believe Jeremy dustbins reply was well I offered them free internet :wave::wave::wave:
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Suppose that free internet would have been handy for all the home working though eh? Plus I expect that we will see a massive climate change slowdown :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
 
Donnie said:
I don't agree with that as the number of deaths from positive coronavirus out of the total number tested gives the current mortality rate. It's going to change yes, but it's still the mortality rate at a given time.
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Officially, in the long term maybe.
But surely if we've been slow initially to test and actually have a lot more cases than we know about, then the figures are meaningless in the short term?

From here....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.
 
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the black fox said:
Watched the chancellor unveil his financial reply to the crisis earlier ,I believe Jeremy dustbins reply was well I offered them free internet :wave::wave::wave:
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There was some good news in there for us plebs in the 3 month mortgage holiday,but little in the way of help for say, the wedding photographer with 2 kids and rent to pay, the plumber or the painter and decorators with little or no work in their diaries as the public are too frightened to allow people in the house, or the pub landlord with no customers coming in through his door but plenty there though for the likes of Branson who can self-isolate on Necker with his feet up and another Pimm's.....chin,chin.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
What's wrong with that?
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That's the way new drugs hit the market, volunteers first, under controlled conditions ..
Can you image the outcry if it (anything) was on general release and there were nasty side effects?
 
Cobra said:
That's the way new drugs hit the market, volunteers first, under controlled conditions ..
Can you image the outcry if it (anything) was on general release and there were nasty side effects?
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Yeah, I realise that, but wasn't sure why Donnie posted a sad face?
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Yeah, I realise that, but wasn't sure why Donnie posted a sad face?
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Cobra said:
Yeah sorry I quoted the wrong person ;)
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Sorry should have qualified it.
Basically a volunteer is exactly that and altruistic, not what these people are doing ie getting paid upwards of $3000 each.

Granted some will say its market forces, some will say it's recompense for taking the risk and I'll agree with that, but only if they're not classed as volunteers.

The flip side of these people "volunteering" is akin to a drug trial were people earn money and they may very well be quite vulnerable, mentally or financially.
 
Donnie said:
Suppose that free internet would have been handy for all the home working though eh? Plus I expect that we will see a massive climate change slowdown :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:
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Apparently alot of IP's were struggling this morning.
 
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Donnie said:
only in the 6 counties, not the republic but yes, Id imagine the sensible thing will be to suspend them for now, but also people should be able to show they had no other choice than to use a car out of MOT.
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Just been reading a piece in Autocar online about the effect of the virus on the motor industry and motorsport. It mentioned several car manufacturers suspending production in various countries in Europe, but it also mentioned Ford have had to close the sales operations in dealerships in various countries, but the service and repair side of the dealerships remain operational, so I guess they are seen as essential and allowed to carry on, if that is the case, no reason why the UK cannot do the same.
 
Donnie said:
Sorry should have qualified it.
Basically a volunteer is exactly that and altruistic, not what these people are doing ie getting paid upwards of $3000 each.

Granted some will say its market forces, some will say it's recompense for taking the risk and I'll agree with that, but only if they're not classed as volunteers.

The flip side of these people "volunteering" is akin to a drug trial were people earn money and they may very well be quite vulnerable, mentally or financially.
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Ah, ok. So not a volunteer in the true sense of the word
 
Donnie said:
Sorry should have qualified it.
Basically a volunteer is exactly that and altruistic, not what these people are doing ie getting paid upwards of $3000 each.

Granted some will say its market forces, some will say it's recompense for taking the risk and I'll agree with that, but only if they're not classed as volunteers.

The flip side of these people "volunteering" is akin to a drug trial were people earn money and they may very well be quite vulnerable, mentally or financially.
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Or in US or Chinese prisons :(
 
nilagin said:
It is the true sense of the word. It means you chose to take part as opposed to being forced to take part, it doesn't mean you can't be paid.
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Maybe but it’s a question of degree.
 
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