Is the VW group going bust?

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Cracking crude oil to create ICE fuels is fairly energy heavy as far as power goes so once that electricity is freed up, there'll be more for EVs. The efficiency of modern lighting is freeing up energy too.

In an ideal world, public transport would be clean, efficient, cheap and reliable (probably other things as well!) but at the moment, in many places, it is none of these things.
 
So Mr Bump claims that EV sales are soaring just as he claimed that VW share prices were plummetting. Neither is true. It is Daily Mail type sensationalism. As a % of new car sales EVs are not yet af 30% so if they are soaring ICE vehicles are soaring at twice as much. And with ICE you know what you are getting. With EV you are buying on a promise and if the second hand prices of EVs fail to meet expectations the whole pack of cards will collapse. The used car market, not the new car market will be the deciding factor of success.
 
How often do the French change their cars? Here, it seems to be just before the first MoT is due, so 3 years old (presumably for fashion reasons, or keeping up with the Joneses!) Does mean that there are plenty of fairly new, relatively cheap modern cars available.
 
Nod said:
How often do the French change their cars? Here, it seems to be just before the first MoT is due, so 3 years old (presumably for fashion reasons, or keeping up with the Joneses!) Does mean that there are plenty of fairly new, relatively cheap modern cars available.
Click to expand...

Not very often. Used car prices are much higher in France than in the UK or neighbouring countries like Germany. And often people keep their used cars for ever. To give a real world example I wanted a Honda CRV 4WD between €12k & €15k and there were two in the whole of France that fitted those criteria. OK if I had wanted a Renault or Peugeot there would be more choice. But we had to travel 60 miles to buy a Skoda Octavia estate in 2012.

In Germany a lot of their older cars 10 years and over end up in central and eastern Europe. I cannot see that market buying s/h EVs. And the French out in the sticks certainly won't buy them. Because of my self employment I was entitled to a discount for a new EV. It simply wasn't worth it given the then disparity between EV and ICE prices. And it is noticiable that the fleets of vehicles being bought by the companies that do home help, meals on wheels and district nurse visits are still buying small diesels. Only the post office vehicles are electric and they are state owned.
 
simon ess said:
From about 1750 to 1810 canal use grew at massive rates.

By 1850 they were pretty much dead. Rail was King.

I agree with Clive.
Click to expand...
Interesting comparison. Was there rail before 1750?
In that comparison, a new technology emerged and proven to be better.



EV is a necessary stepping stone to reduce emissions ASAP.
If there is a new zero localised emission technology that proves to be better, it may well take over. But that has been promised for the last 40 years, it's not coming anytime soon. It is also not better when considering its massive efficiency losses.
en.wikipedia.org

Fuel cell vehicle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Mass transit and micro-mobility is the only truly sustainable way to cut global emissions. But as UK government still haven't legalised electric micro mobility, we have a very long way to go just in ideology and mindset. In the mean time, an item that lasts over 10 years old on average should have next 10 years in mind.

In 10 years time, the grid that charges EV got vastly cleaner:
interactive.carbonbrief.org

Interactive: How the UK transformed its electricity supply in just a decade

This is the story of the policy decisions and other developments behind the UK electricity sector’s decade of transformation.
interactive.carbonbrief.org interactive.carbonbrief.org
circularecology.com

Defra 2023 Emissions Factors Released - Circular Ecology

Defra release the 2023 conversion factors for carbon emissions.
circularecology.com circularecology.com
1731573657032.png


THAT is the reason we are pushing 100% EV for 2035. Cars are on the road for a long time. EV's get cleaner as the grid get cleaner as we approach 2050.


woof woof said:
Long term I'm convinced that EV isn't the answer and baring governments forcing us into them they are perhaps only a stepping stone to something else.
Click to expand...

As individuals, you (generic you) are right to be sceptic of new technology. But to delay by saying wait for even newer unproven tech is rather hypercritical.
 
Clive K said:
So Mr Bump claims that EV sales are soaring just as he claimed that VW share prices were plummetting. Neither is true. It is Daily Mail type sensationalism. As a % of new car sales EVs are not yet af 30% so if they are soaring ICE vehicles are soaring at twice as much. And with ICE you know what you are getting. With EV you are buying on a promise and if the second hand prices of EVs fail to meet expectations the whole pack of cards will collapse. The used car market, not the new car market will be the deciding factor of success.
Click to expand...
On the other hand it simply shows the totally unsustainable effect that fossil fuels have on private transport.

Strap yourself in for a very bumpy ride. At least it will give you something to worry about instead of where your food and water is going to come from.
 
wyx087 said:
Interesting comparison. Was there rail before 1750?
In that comparison, a new technology emerged and proven to be better.



EV is a necessary stepping stone to reduce emissions ASAP.
If there is a new zero localised emission technology that proves to be better, it may well take over. But that has been promised for the last 40 years, it's not coming anytime soon. It is also not better when considering its massive efficiency losses.
en.wikipedia.org

Fuel cell vehicle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Mass transit and micro-mobility is the only truly sustainable way to cut global emissions. But as UK government still haven't legalised electric micro mobility, we have a very long way to go just in ideology and mindset. In the mean time, an item that lasts over 10 years old on average should have next 10 years in mind.

In 10 years time, the grid that charges EV got vastly cleaner:
interactive.carbonbrief.org

Interactive: How the UK transformed its electricity supply in just a decade

This is the story of the policy decisions and other developments behind the UK electricity sector’s decade of transformation.
interactive.carbonbrief.org interactive.carbonbrief.org
circularecology.com

Defra 2023 Emissions Factors Released - Circular Ecology

Defra release the 2023 conversion factors for carbon emissions.
circularecology.com circularecology.com
View attachment 438701


THAT is the reason we are pushing 100% EV for 2035. Cars are on the road for a long time. EV's get cleaner as the grid get cleaner as we approach 2050.




As individuals, you (generic you) are right to be sceptic of new technology. But to delay by saying wait for even newer unproven tech is rather hypercritical.
Click to expand...

The hypocricy comes from those pushing for EVs and ignoring the vast amount of pollution coming from industry in emerging nations. It is like encouraging everybody to plant a window box to reduce co2.

The % of EVs will naturally rise even without the unsustainable subsidies on EVs and tarrifs on ICE vehicles. The reason being that at the tail end of the market it is ICE vehicles that are being scrapped at the end of their life because EVs haven't got there yet. Whether Joe Public will replace their old diesels with 10+ year old EVs remains to be seen. I don't think that they will. An example can be found in motorhomes where only older drivers willing to undergo bi-annual medical exams or younger drivers willing to take a specific test have the 7.5t category as opposed to the upto 3.5t we all have on their licences. Those who bought 4t motorhomes a few years ago for whatever reason now find that they cannot easily sell them at any price and the demand for new motorhomes over 3.5t has shrank. The same sort of scenario could happen with EVs. If dealers can't shift the part exchange EVs then their new EV sales will suffer.

As for the emissions from electricity generation; what about the anti-nuclear protests of a few years ago? Now we, the collective we, are turning back to it. Hypocricy in action.
 
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Clive K said:
The hypocricy comes from those pushing for EVs and ignoring the vast amount of pollution coming from industry in emerging nations. It is like encouraging everybody to plant a window box to reduce co2.
Click to expand...
It has never been ignored in the EV whole life calculation I posted earlier:
www.talkphotography.co.uk

Is the VW group going bust?

lots of talk across quite a few you tube channels that the VW group is in deep s***. profits plunging across the board especially China they have just asked all there German employee's to take a 10% pay cut. saying way to expensive to make there cars in Germany but unions are to strong. want to...
www.talkphotography.co.uk www.talkphotography.co.uk
Whereas I don't believe ICE vehicle takes into account of the history and ongoing conflict that were fought due to thirst for oil:

Oil war - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Clive K said:
The % of EVs will naturally rise even without the unsustainable subsidies on EVs and tarrifs on ICE vehicles. The reason being that at the tail end of the market it is ICE vehicles that are being scrapped at the end of their life because EVs haven't got there yet. Whether Joe Public will replace their old diesels with 10+ year old EVs remains to be seen. I don't think that they will. An example can be found in motorhomes where only older drivers willing to undergo bi-annual medical exams or younger drivers willing to take a specific test have the 7.5t category as opposed to the upto 3.5t we all have on their licences. Those who bought 4t motorhomes a few years ago for whatever reason now find that they cannot easily sell them at any price and the demand for new motorhomes over 3.5t has shrank. The same sort of scenario could happen with EVs. If dealers can't shift the part exchange EVs then their new EV sales will suffer.
Click to expand...
The % of EV will indeed naturally rise, and the public who buys 10 year old car of course will be buying 10 year old EV when more naturally become available. Why not?

Your example talks about a change in regulation that makes something undesirable. This can only happen with ICE vehicle where its per-mile emissions are set at time of manufacturing, making older ICE vehicle liable to emission control. This could also happen based on vehicle weight, but well designed BEV weighs the same (eg. compare Tesla Model Y to a diesel Audi Q5, then look at weight of new BMW M5).

However there are still many brand new, big and heavy ICE being sold, and let's remember 10+ year life they lead and the fact they will emit for as long as they are used. So there must be a push to speed up phasing them out, to speed it up.

Clive K said:
As for the emissions from electricity generation; what about the anti-nuclear protests of a few years ago? Now we, the collective we, are turning back to it. Hypocricy in action.
Click to expand...
Anti-nuclear protest does not equal to consensus.
Just like climate extremist protests does not represent all individuals who are concerned about climate change.
 
Why not buy a 10 year old EV? There lies the answer to whether EVs will indeed succeed. At the moment we are being lead to believe that the batteries in EVs will somehow buck the trend of Lithium batteries losing capacity after a few years and will be magically refreshed or cheaply replaced. Perhaps with magic beans?

Remember the Advance Photographic System? I recall reading that the reduced negative size would not be a problem because APS used superior emulsions! So, what Fuji, Kodak and the rest were implying is that superior emulsions would only be available to those who had plastic cameras with two Christmases and a summer holiday on the same roll of film. And the sports, wedding and fashion pro's would not be able to have it for their F5s and EOS1ns. How long did that last?

Time will tell. But I believe that today's generation EVs are no different from APS cameras. They are being sold on a promise that cannot be guaranteed.
 
Clive K said:
Why not buy a 10 year old EV? There lies the answer to whether EVs will indeed succeed. At the moment we are being lead to believe that the batteries in EVs will somehow buck the trend of Lithium batteries losing capacity after a few years and will be magically refreshed or cheaply replaced. Perhaps with magic beans?
Click to expand...
As mentioned earlier in this thread, EV battery is very different to Li-on battery in other small electronic devices. BEV battery are expected to last longer than life of vehicle. It won't need refresh or replacement.

Your whole argument (from no one buys 10 year old EV all the way to new EV demand) hinges on the idea that battery don't last, but that's simply not true when all EV sold today have 8 years battery warranty, compared to typically 3 years warranty on ICE vehicle. You don't throw away the ICE a few years after warranty expires, why would you think that will be the case with battery in BEV?

Two cases in point:

My (wife's) Nissan Leaf 2014 is 10 years old now. It has done ~65k miles, and over last year it had more battery cycles due to being used in vehicle-to-home bi-directional charger as home battery. Currently it has 79% state of health, meaning it can still hold 79% of its rated capacity. As local runabout, even with 50% degraded battery at over 20 years old, it still gives more than enough range and useful as both car and home battery. I would have zero hesitation to buy a 10 year old EV.

Nod had similar health reading and vehicle condition: https://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/is-the-vw-group-going-bust.763598/#post-9548796

Newer EV with thermal management would degrade even less because the battery has been well looked after.
 
When an EV car breaks down, is it like the local R70 bus which basically just stops where it is? Or is it like an ICE which at least gives you some warning it is about to die and you can take precautions to get it off the road. Bus was stranded on Kew Road, Richmond and basically caused gridlock in the area. When I've been on a failing ICE bus at least the driver has been able to get it out of harm's way...
 
welshwizard645 said:
When an EV car breaks down, is it like the local R70 bus which basically just stops where it is? Or is it like an ICE which at least gives you some warning it is about to die and you can take precautions to get it off the road. Bus was stranded on Kew Road, Richmond and basically caused gridlock in the area. When I've been on a failing ICE bus at least the driver has been able to get it out of harm's way...
Click to expand...

because the world is full of broken down buses and EV's haha your world lol
 
welshwizard645 said:
When an EV car breaks down, is it like the local R70 bus which basically just stops where it is? Or is it like an ICE which at least gives you some warning it is about to die and you can take precautions to get it off the road. Bus was stranded on Kew Road, Richmond and basically caused gridlock in the area. When I've been on a failing ICE bus at least the driver has been able to get it out of harm's way...
Click to expand...

I understand where you are coming from, even the modern ICE stuff usually presents either physical signs that something isn't right or a warning will come up. Perhaps that could also be attributed to the more complicated engine compared to an EV. I do find it quite rare to see cars at the side of motorways these days.

I'm not sure with EV, presumably there will be a raft of sensors as well and it's dependent on what goes wrong.
 
Let's break down the question, these are my educated guesses:
- if problem happens in gearbox: same with every other vehicle.
- if problem happens in electric motor: no or reduced motive power.
- if problem happens in battery: no power or reduced power
- if problem happens in power electronics: reduced power or unable to charge.
In all cases, reduced power would be some sort of limp mode. No power would mean vehicle is still moveable (pushing or momentum).

So I don't think it will stop dead like a ship with anchers suddernly deployed. If that's what you are asking?

As mentioned, there is so many sensors it usually should have plenty of warning. Typically I'd expect the car to know more about itself than any external observer, including non-OEM garage technician. The battery management system alone have come a long way from EV's in early 2010's, never mind motor, power electrics and battery itself.
 
VW are just way to expensive in Germany and will cease German production in a few years if they don't make radical changes

ffff.jpg
 
Also the start of the end Golf Production the iconic VW will be built in Mexico from 2027

Realignment and relocation
Production realignment in Germany includes the relocation of the Golf and Golf Estate models from the Wolfsburg plant (where it has been made for 50 years) to VW Group’s plant in Puebla, Mexico from 2027. The VW Golf is Europe’s third most popular passenger car, with almost 200,000 sold in the year up to October 2024 (+17.5%), which suggests an uptick in VW’s finished vehicle imports to Europe.
 
wyx087 said:
As mentioned earlier in this thread, EV battery is very different to Li-on battery in other small electronic devices. BEV battery are expected to last longer than life of vehicle. It won't need refresh or replacement.

Your whole argument (from no one buys 10 year old EV all the way to new EV demand) hinges on the idea that battery don't last, but that's simply not true when all EV sold today have 8 years battery warranty, compared to typically 3 years warranty on ICE vehicle. You don't throw away the ICE a few years after warranty expires, why would you think that will be the case with battery in BEV?

Two cases in point:

My (wife's) Nissan Leaf 2014 is 10 years old now. It has done ~65k miles, and over last year it had more battery cycles due to being used in vehicle-to-home bi-directional charger as home battery. Currently it has 79% state of health, meaning it can still hold 79% of its rated capacity. As local runabout, even with 50% degraded battery at over 20 years old, it still gives more than enough range and useful as both car and home battery. I would have zero hesitation to buy a 10 year old EV.

Nod had similar health reading and vehicle condition: https://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/is-the-vw-group-going-bust.763598/#post-9548796

Newer EV with thermal management would degrade even less because the battery has been well looked after.
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What a load of complete nonsense. :ROFLMAO:
 
Steep said:
Explain your thinking here.
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What's the point?

This is supposed to be a thread about the VAG Group that has been hijacked for those wishing to push their weird E.V agenda.

Buying a vehicle powered by thousands of vape batteries isn't going to be for everyone.
 
f/2.8 said:
Buying a vehicle powered by thousands of vape batteries isn't going to be for everyone.
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Nice, very nice way of explaining your thinking.

So you'd rather believe the man down the pub than actual factual evidences.

Indeed, I agree with you, what's the point?
 
f/2.8 said:
What's the point?

This is supposed to be a thread about the VAG Group that has been hijacked for those wishing to push their weird E.V agenda.

Buying a vehicle powered by thousands of vape batteries isn't going to be for everyone.
Click to expand...
If there's no point, why comment in the first place?
 
wyx087 said:
Nice, very nice way of explaining your thinking.

So you'd rather believe the man down the pub than actual factual evidences.

Indeed, I agree with you, what's the point?
Click to expand...
No I will believe my cousin who owns a company that specialises in salvage and recycling of electric vehicles.
 
f/2.8 said:
No I will believe my cousin who owns a company that specialises in salvage and recycling of electric vehicles.
Click to expand...
Excellent, good source of info.

What does he/she say about old EV batteries?

I'd be very interested in how many EV batteries go through that company? Is it more accident salvage than end of life?
Public data shows most older EV's are still on the road.
Nissan Leaf: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf_tekna_24kwh
Tesla Model S: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/tesla_model_s_85d
So where does majority of the EV battery for that company come from?

What information do you/your cousin know that makes you think idea of EV battery lasting longer than vehicle is "load of complete nonsense"?
 
Don't EV batteries tend to get upcycled rather than recycled? Once they're deemed to be too depleted for the super heavy loads that EVs put on them, they're still more than up to the task of home storage.
 
wyx087 said:
Excellent, good source of info.

What does he/she say about old EV batteries?

I'd be very interested in how many EV batteries go through that company? Is it more accident salvage than end of life?
Public data shows most older EV's are still on the road.
Nissan Leaf: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/nissan_leaf_tekna_24kwh
Tesla Model S: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/tesla_model_s_85d
So where does majority of the EV battery for that company come from?

What information do you/your cousin know that makes you think idea of EV battery lasting longer than vehicle is "load of complete nonsense"?
Click to expand...
Electric cars aff

By far and away the most aesthetically ugly vehicles for the money and have zero to no character.

Give me petrol all day long
 
Nod said:
Don't EV batteries tend to get upcycled rather than recycled? Once they're deemed to be too depleted for the super heavy loads that EVs put on them, they're still more than up to the task of home storage.
Click to expand...
No the materials get separated and then crushed to recover the metal and lithium. There is a huge amount of wastage.

Repurposing them would be a good solution but rarely happens due to safety concerns.

There is a lot of wastage with electric cars in general.

Just one example my cousin had an MG4 in the other week, was pretty much a brand new car with under 3k miles that had been in a minor accident, literally a very minor bump on the bumper. However due to concerns about battery safety the insurance company wrote the car of and the car was salvaged and scrapped. This happens a lot he has had Tesla’s with less than 1k miles.

Another example a couple of months back there was a flood and he got in 12 x Citroen Dispatches from a fleet all written off by the insurer for battery safety concerns. There was no obvious water damage to any of them and they all worked perfectly. All were very new vehicles.

E.V’s are great for my cousin since he switched to only E.V’s his business has more than quadrupled in size.

The vast majority of E.V’s he gets in would not have been scrapped if they were a real car.

Even though his business is E.V’s he would never own or drive one.
 
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I'm sorry I'm not f/5.6, posting after f/1.4 and f/2.8. :ROFLMAO:

So it is a write-off salvage business. EV's are being written-off due to safety concern for the battery and insurance assessor lacking knowledge/tools to sign off minor damaged vehicle. This wastage is indeed area that must be improved, I totally agree.



Outside of damaged vehicles, after vehicle around the battery is retired, batteries do get re-used.
Examples:
www.autocar.co.uk

Renault to repurpose EV batteries into home energy storage systems | Autocar

Renault has teamed up with Powervault to give used electric vehicle batteries a ‘second life’ as home energy storage units
www.autocar.co.uk www.autocar.co.uk
evpeiwe-tech.com

Repurposing EV Batteries: Volkswagen's Innovation in Grid Battery Solutions

In a pioneering move towards sustainable energy practices, Volkswagen (VW) has announced plans to repurpose old electric vehicle (EV) batteries to construct a massive grid battery.
evpeiwe-tech.com evpeiwe-tech.com
thedriven.io

Australian company gives EV batteries a second life as big battery storage

Electric vehicle batteries to get a second life in a big battery, as an Australian company ramps up deployment of its energy storage technologies.
thedriven.io thedriven.io

I think until new battery price drops below the purple part of this graph, there will always be a case for re-using giving second life to EV batteries.
1736352694965.png
Source: https://blog.ucsusa.org/hanjiro-ambrose/the-second-life-of-used-ev-batteries/
 
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wyx087 said:
I'm sorry I'm not f/5.6, posting after f/1.4 and f/2.8. :ROFLMAO:

So it is a write-off salvage business. EV's are being written-off due to safety concern for the battery and insurance assessor lacking knowledge/tools to sign off minor damaged vehicle. This wastage is indeed area that must be improved, I totally agree.



Outside of damaged vehicles, after vehicle around the battery is retired, batteries do get re-used.
Examples:
www.autocar.co.uk

Renault to repurpose EV batteries into home energy storage systems | Autocar

Renault has teamed up with Powervault to give used electric vehicle batteries a ‘second life’ as home energy storage units
www.autocar.co.uk www.autocar.co.uk
evpeiwe-tech.com

Repurposing EV Batteries: Volkswagen's Innovation in Grid Battery Solutions

In a pioneering move towards sustainable energy practices, Volkswagen (VW) has announced plans to repurpose old electric vehicle (EV) batteries to construct a massive grid battery.
evpeiwe-tech.com evpeiwe-tech.com
thedriven.io

Australian company gives EV batteries a second life as big battery storage

Electric vehicle batteries to get a second life in a big battery, as an Australian company ramps up deployment of its energy storage technologies.
thedriven.io thedriven.io

I think until new battery price drops below the purple part of this graph, there will always be a case for re-using giving second life to EV batteries.
View attachment 442758
Source: https://blog.ucsusa.org/hanjiro-ambrose/the-second-life-of-used-ev-batteries/
Click to expand...

No I was using accident damaged as an example he takes all E.V’s

You would assume they would try and reuse the batteries but they don’t it’s all talk but no action as isn’t commercially viable.
 
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f/2.8 said:
No I was using accident damaged as an example he takes all E.V’s

You would assume they would try and reuse the batteries but they don’t it’s all talk but no action as isn’t commercially viable.
Click to expand...

Rome wasn't built in a day but it sounds like you personally have an axe to grind
lets just see where EVs go in the next two to three years and just be more kind :)
 
f/2.8 said:
He died after his electric car went on fire for no reason, that’s what they do. :oops: :$
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Check the stats. ICE vehicles are FAR more likely to go up in smoke than EVs.
 
Nod said:
Check the stats. ICE vehicles are FAR more likely to go up in smoke than EVs.
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If an electric vehicle on fire while you’re driving it will explode and you will die. Much less likely with a real car.
 
f/2.8 said:
If an electric vehicle on fire while you’re driving it will explode and you will die. Much less likely with a real car.
Click to expand...
? That's quite a statement.
 
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