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An Independent Scotland?
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StewartR
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Border controls? That would be pathetic. Are they really saying stuff like that? (We don't get so much coverage down south.)
StewartR
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I doubt it very much. Whatever they say now, they can always spin it so that a NO vote for independence is a YES vote for nuclear weapons, austerity cuts, bedroom tax, NHS privatisation and any other policies you care to name that aren't Scotland-centric. You knew that's what you'd get, they can say, and you voted for it.
Bobsyeruncle
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Nah! 2 pish teams doesn't make a good team
Although, Scotland are improving.
gman
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There was even a mock photo!
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Glad to see he has his priorities right
BTW keep him, consider him a free gift from your Southern brethren
gman
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Well this is ironic but Labour are apparently set to win the next general election but only if they have the Scottish MPs. Scotland being predominantly a Labour country would get the Government they voted for so to speak lol. Personally, the thought of Labour being back in charge is probably enough for me to vote Yes - but then there's the fear of a Scottish Labour getting in charge up here. Have people really forgotten what a mess they made previously?
Byker28i
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Pointless having a discussion with Steep. The financial arguments don't stack up but he won't believe any evidence put forward that doesn't agree with his opinion.
Meanwhile the exodus of money and services has started from Scotland.
I really hope Scotland votes yes now. It'll be painful for everyone, but at least they'll just be to blame for their own failings.
Meanwhile the exodus of money and services has started from Scotland.
I really hope Scotland votes yes now. It'll be painful for everyone, but at least they'll just be to blame for their own failings.
H2O
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The only way he could believe it would be if I'd said it.
Or he could have mistakenly inferred it.
Have you not stated the party line that Scotland will only accept the dept if conditions (CU) are met?
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Try doing it without the personal attacks and you might get somewhere.
Bobsyeruncle
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Which exodus of money and services are you talking about? A 2.4% drop in the share price of 3 Scottish based businesses? Look at the standard life share price over the last 5 years, up and down like a yo-yo. The weakening of the pound? Look at the value of the pound over the last 5 years, it's been up and down like a yo-yo, and at times has been much lower than yesterday.
Hardly an exodus.
Which services have formed part of this exodus?
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Byker28i
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I refer the honourable gentleman to my earlier post:
http://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/an-independent-scotland.387704/page-81#post-6465187
Today's financial Times has two articles, plus another from the Express
But carry on - I'm done trying to have a grown up discussion.
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Bobsyeruncle
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Throwing your dummy out the pram because I questioned you is not grown up!
I read the article, and it says
"We could see a lot of money being pulled out of UK investments. Sterling could fall at least 15 per cent in a worst case scenario. These are scary times," Mr Rochester added.
"COULD" that doesn't mean that it will happen. I would expect companies/institutions to be wary and making contingency plans, as they don't know what will definitely happen either.
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I'm not at all politically minded but speaking as an Englishman living in Kent, if it does all go ahead, what's going to happen to my Scottish Widows pension since it's headquarters is located in Glasgow?
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A little decorum in the forum please gentlemen.
This is / has been is a very enlightening and interesting debate.
But as the campaining gathers speed, in the run up to the vote, there is no need for us to act like politicians,
attacking each other to gain the so called moral high ground, or to score a couple of Brownie points
Thanks
This is / has been is a very enlightening and interesting debate.
But as the campaining gathers speed, in the run up to the vote, there is no need for us to act like politicians,
attacking each other to gain the so called moral high ground, or to score a couple of Brownie points
Thanks
dejongj
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Initially I doubt very little. I've got one of mine and several other bits there as well.
On the longer term I am concerned about the value, any protection, linkages to the Scottish economy in which I have no faith at all for the future.
I'll won't run away in a panic, but will keep a very close eye on that and other Scottish investment and will be determining a plan to move them away when it becomes necessary.
StewartR
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Little or nothing, I would expect.
Scottish Widows don't actually have your cash stashed under a mattress somewhere in Glasgow. At least, I assume they don't. It will be invested in stocks and property and unit trusts and stuff like that, and a bit of it is probably invested outside the UK already. It's conceivable that if Scotland does vote for independence, investment companies based in Scotland might bias their investments towards Scottish companies. But they might not. And remember your pension would have to be paid out in good old fashioned GBP, even if Scotland does eventually go its own way currency wise. So it would make sense for Scottish Widows to invest in UK companies so that it can service its UK clients' pensions without exchange risk.
Nothing to be worried about.
StewartR
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Wow. 15%? That really is terrifying. I've seen exchange rates pretty much everywhere from £1=$1 to £1=$2. 15% is virtually a rounding error.
Byker28i
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Sorry Bob, the grown up wasn't aimed at you. Don't like being called a liar for no reason other than trying to have a discussion.
The express article isn't the interesting one (rag mag) but the FT article is interesting. I couldn't link earlier as it's a paid for service, but I've found it...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c43c9a14-3846-11e4-9fc2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CuzxwepZ
Asset managers, investors and pension savers are moving billions of pounds out of Scotland, according to industry executives, amid rising concerns about the financial consequences of a Yes vote in next week’s independence referendum.
Multrees Investor Services, a manager of bank accounts for the wealth management industry, said it alone had moved hundreds of millions of pounds on behalf of several wealth managers. “They’ve all been taking action,” said Chris Fisher, Multrees’ chief executive. “If our clients are doing it then other financial services companies are doing it as well.”
Douglas Connell, senior partner at Turcan Connell, one of Edinburgh’s best known legal firms – which also has a wealth management arm and specialises in handling the affairs of the well-heeled – said: “We’re extremely busy at the moment. There is an unprecedented level of questions. There is almost a frenzy [among clients].
“The big question is, ‘Is my cash safe in a Scottish bank?’,” he said. Clients were “concerned that there could be some kind of controls” put on funds in Scottish banks. They were worried that “some kind of axe might come down” immediately after the referendum. He said such worries were unfounded.
In a further sign of nerves, “exit clauses” are being inserted into commercial property contracts in Scotland to allow buyers to scrap deals or renegotiate prices if voters opt for independence, according to leading advisers to the sector.
With opinion polls indicating the two sides are neck and neck, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned that a currency union between England and an independent Scotland would be “incompatible with sovereignty”.
His comments mark a significant hardening of his position against sharing the currency and come as the leaders of the main Westminster political parties scramble to regain the initiative and prevent the break-up of the 307-year-old union.
David Cameron and Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader, are to cancel their weekly House of Commons question time duel to campaign in Scotland on Wednesday along with deputy prime minister Nick Clegg.
The decision to suspend hostilities reflects mounting concerns in Whitehall and the City about the implications of a Yes vote. Wealth managers report clients moving deposits out of Scottish banks, and pension funds out of the stock market and into cash. One independent financial adviser said a client had shifted close to £1m out of stocks into a safer asset.
“Clients are concerned about the unknown,” said Claire Walsh, chartered financial planner at Aspect 8, the independent financial advisers. “Some of them are elderly and nearing retirement and are worried about their assets.”
Shares in Scottish-based companies rebounded on Tuesday after sharp falls the previous day in the wake of a Sunday Times/YouGov poll that gave the Yes camp a narrow lead for the first time in the campaign. But the pound was flat and 10-year gilt prices fell further on Tuesday, briefly pushing yields up to 2.52 per cent – close to a one-month high – before they retreated slightly.
In depth
Scotland will decide in a referendum to be held on September 18 2014 whether or not to end the 307-year-old union with England
Number 10 itself will fly the Saltire until the referendum is over, something Mr Miliband has also urged Labour councils to do. Mr Cameron is expected to announce shortly who he intends to chair a cross-party convention on the transfer of new powers to Holyrood if there were to be a No vote.
“There is a lot that divides us – but there’s one thing on which we agree passionately: the United Kingdom is better together,” the three main political party leaders said in a joint statement. “Our message to the Scottish people will be simple: ‘We want you to stay’.”
One Scottish asset management executive said that UK financial regulators were “quietly reaching out” to institutions to discuss their contingency plans for a potential Yes vote on September 18.
Big Scottish financial institutions, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, have said they are concerned about the consequences of a Yes vote and are working on contingency plans. Standard Life is one of the few to say it may move its domicile to England if Scotland becomes independent.
Barney Reynolds, a partner at Shearman & Sterling, said: “For firms to continue to be under UK supervision, their place of business and management generally would have to be in the UK. This will tend to create a gravitational pull on Scottish firms to relocate much of their infrastructure to the UK, particularly for retail-oriented businesses.”
Bernie174
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My company are apparently going to pull the plug if it's a yes.
Too much aggro to keep Scotland's office going. At the moment its the same rules as the rest of us in the UK, and not worth employing someone else to sort it out when they change.
Plus the CEO would rather the jobs stayed in the UK.
Too much aggro to keep Scotland's office going. At the moment its the same rules as the rest of us in the UK, and not worth employing someone else to sort it out when they change.
Plus the CEO would rather the jobs stayed in the UK.
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Real option for sure, but still just an option. Everything they have done is what every right minded company would do, make plans to protect their investment in the event of...whatever may happen. They'll go or stay if it makes good business sense to, but what they're not going to do is make a decision until they need to.
Bobsyeruncle
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I'm sure very little is directly invested in Scotland itself.
Bobsyeruncle
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Sorry Bob, the grown up wasn't aimed at you. Don't like being called a liar for no reason other than trying to have a discussion.
No Worries
The express article isn't the interesting one (rag mag) but the FT article is interesting. I couldn't link earlier as it's a paid for service, but I've found it...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c43c9a14-3846-11e4-9fc2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CuzxwepZ
Asset managers, investors and pension savers are moving billions of pounds out of Scotland, according to industry executives, amid rising concerns about the financial consequences of a Yes vote in next week’s independence referendum.
Multrees Investor Services, a manager of bank accounts for the wealth management industry, said it alone had moved hundreds of millions of pounds on behalf of several wealth managers. “They’ve all been taking action,” said Chris Fisher, Multrees’ chief executive. “If our clients are doing it then other financial services companies are doing it as well.”
Douglas Connell, senior partner at Turcan Connell, one of Edinburgh’s best known legal firms – which also has a wealth management arm and specialises in handling the affairs of the well-heeled – said: “We’re extremely busy at the moment. There is an unprecedented level of questions. There is almost a frenzy [among clients].
“The big question is, ‘Is my cash safe in a Scottish bank?’,” he said. Clients were “concerned that there could be some kind of controls” put on funds in Scottish banks. They were worried that “some kind of axe might come down” immediately after the referendum. He said such worries were unfounded.
In a further sign of nerves, “exit clauses” are being inserted into commercial property contracts in Scotland to allow buyers to scrap deals or renegotiate prices if voters opt for independence, according to leading advisers to the sector.
With opinion polls indicating the two sides are neck and neck, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned that a currency union between England and an independent Scotland would be “incompatible with sovereignty”.
His comments mark a significant hardening of his position against sharing the currency and come as the leaders of the main Westminster political parties scramble to regain the initiative and prevent the break-up of the 307-year-old union.
David Cameron and Ed Miliband, the Labour party leader, are to cancel their weekly House of Commons question time duel to campaign in Scotland on Wednesday along with deputy prime minister Nick Clegg.
The decision to suspend hostilities reflects mounting concerns in Whitehall and the City about the implications of a Yes vote. Wealth managers report clients moving deposits out of Scottish banks, and pension funds out of the stock market and into cash. One independent financial adviser said a client had shifted close to £1m out of stocks into a safer asset.
“Clients are concerned about the unknown,” said Claire Walsh, chartered financial planner at Aspect 8, the independent financial advisers. “Some of them are elderly and nearing retirement and are worried about their assets.”
Shares in Scottish-based companies rebounded on Tuesday after sharp falls the previous day in the wake of a Sunday Times/YouGov poll that gave the Yes camp a narrow lead for the first time in the campaign. But the pound was flat and 10-year gilt prices fell further on Tuesday, briefly pushing yields up to 2.52 per cent – close to a one-month high – before they retreated slightly.
In depth
Scotland will decide in a referendum to be held on September 18 2014 whether or not to end the 307-year-old union with England
Number 10 itself will fly the Saltire until the referendum is over, something Mr Miliband has also urged Labour councils to do. Mr Cameron is expected to announce shortly who he intends to chair a cross-party convention on the transfer of new powers to Holyrood if there were to be a No vote.
“There is a lot that divides us – but there’s one thing on which we agree passionately: the United Kingdom is better together,” the three main political party leaders said in a joint statement. “Our message to the Scottish people will be simple: ‘We want you to stay’.”
One Scottish asset management executive said that UK financial regulators were “quietly reaching out” to institutions to discuss their contingency plans for a potential Yes vote on September 18.
Big Scottish financial institutions, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, have said they are concerned about the consequences of a Yes vote and are working on contingency plans. Standard Life is one of the few to say it may move its domicile to England if Scotland becomes independent.
Barney Reynolds, a partner at Shearman & Sterling, said: “For firms to continue to be under UK supervision, their place of business and management generally would have to be in the UK. This will tend to create a gravitational pull on Scottish firms to relocate much of their infrastructure to the UK, particularly for retail-oriented businesses.”
Fair enough, buts it's what I would expect though. I'll bet if the markets do crash, then billions of pounds will flow back in and some companies will make a killing when they recover.
BillN_33
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iScotland could well bring in tax and investment (incentives) policies that would attract business which could be far more creative than those decided by a Conservative Government.
Every argument can be countered with simple answers that the man in the street voter can understand
Every argument can be countered with simple answers that the man in the street voter can understand
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GeeJay57
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Yup... The North Sea is pretty much a busted flush from an oil production perspective unless the price of oil sky rockets or some additional reserves are discovered (unlikely). Still a lot of gas out there, though again the best years for producing that are probably behind us too.
dejongj
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The investment isn't the problem. It is the governance around the operation of the company. The viability of the company ongoing. Remember what happened in Cyprus with the rush on cash held. Further more the UK has got particular protection limits in place and I don't think Scotland could offer the same level of protection since they simply cannot underwrite is. Especially not when they haven't got their own currency.
Considering we are talking about very serious sums of money at stake that I've worked very hard for in my life I most definitely won't want to leave that to the faith of appropriate controls in an independent. Scotland.
BillN_33
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finance and money has no loyal boundaries ....... it will move to were it is more profitable ....... back and forwards if needs be ........ governments have little control, they cannot beat the "markets" ....... they are just not big enough
dejongj
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Perhaps not, but they can grab it and steel it if they are insolvent themselves and can't print more money. I would not invest with any company who is contractually based in a banana republic, and there is no clarity whatsoever how Scotland will operate if they get independence and what kind of protection and guarantees they can offer.
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Depends who you listen to http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29140970 Could be viable oil reserves there to last 100 years. Ian Woods is the most vocal opponent of there being more North Sea oil but he's contradicting himself and even one of his own company execs disagrees with him. Undersea fracking is on the cards and that would quite possibly double the existing estimates.
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Tell that to the UK government which is busy 'printing' money to pay its bills right now. There's billions of quantitative easing bonds sitting in the treasury.
Bobsyeruncle
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So what if the best years are behind us? No one knows exactly how much is left, but one things for sure, it's still a lot, so hardly a busted flush.
Bobsyeruncle
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BillN_33
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I'm not sure what Adam from Kirkcaldy would say to this with regard to the future of the Scottish economy