Andy
Cause and effect really are not just relevant to now, but equally apply to the activities of Islamic fundamentalists since at least the early 90's.
You mention Afghanistan & Iraq, and link these to the spread of terrorism since 2001.
So dealing with that, Extreme Islamic terrorism didn't start on 9/11. The 1993 attack on the WTC was the same root. The attacks on USS Cole, and the US Embassy bombings attacks in Saudi Arabia, all long predate 9/11, but are at the feet of Al Qaida. You think AQ ignored the UK? No, it didnt. Granted theres no attack I can think of that was down to them, that didnt stop planning and preparation which was certainly going on.
That particular group based themselves in Afghanistan (after Sudan), and although they are not a 'group' in the same way as for example the IRA were, being more of a loose alliance, they certainly controlled and suggested and planned attacks by or on behalf of those allied to them.
Invading Afghanistan, a country which we would all acknowledge was oppressing its inhabitants in the name of extreme and perverted Islam, was a way of keeping the lid on the problem. No one should be under any illusion there is no way of beating the issue, and all we can and will ever be able to do is try and minimise it. I doubt even the US thought they were going to Win a war there in the conventional sense, both the UK and the Soviet Union had failed to do so, and even the US is aware of history.
So invasion was intended to an extent distract AQ from the big attacks. Was that a success? That's impossible to say, but there have been no huge spectaculars since. On the other hand, it may be that none would have happened anyway. Personally, and based on a Special Branch Briefing I went to before 9/11, I suspect there would have been, and a large number at that.
Yes, there have been attacks, were they 'spectacular' in the same way that some IRA (and no they were not angels before anyone suggests it!), attacks were? The London bombings while horrific were serious, but no worse than the IRA tried to do, and luckily failed in general.
Obviously though AQ hasn't gone away, it's never going to unless they get what they want. It still has influence over those who are open to suggestion, in the same way as extreme right wing groups have.
Would they have that influence if we hadn't gone into Afghanistan along with the US? Of course they would, and they would still be exploiting that influence. Whats worse is that they may have been in a better position to plan, fund and train for far worse than we have seen to date.
So cause and effect, AQ bomb US, US invade their main operating base. A spin off from that is that there is a justification in the eyes of some for more terrorism, albeit at a lower level that we would probably otherwise have.
We have an attack like yesterday, and groups like the EDL, using EXACTLY the same justification as AQ use, now have a recruiting boost. Thats great for AQ, who can point at groups like that saying See, told you, the West want to rid themselves of Islam. That generates more recruiting for them, and more attacks.
And so it goes on in an every spinning circle.
The obvious question now is, how do you stop it. There is no obvious answer though. For that you have to understand the reasons for Islamic terrorism.
Its ironic they make much of the Crusades of the middle ages in their vitriol against the West. Those were an attempt to Christianise the Middle East. In the same way AQs aim is to spread their brand of Islam throughout the world, so a sort of Extreme Islamic Crusade. In other words, theyd only be happy if every country was as Afghanistan was before the US led invasion.
The problem is of course that Islamic fundamentalism is a perverted view of Islam, and flies in the face of much of Islamic teachings. Thats why we dont see Muslim representative groups coming down on AQs side. Thats why they condemned yesterdays attack. But again, that minor fact escapes the right wing groups, and helps them gain legitimacy in their own eyes. And is ignored by the AQ brand too.
So while some may not have agreed with invading Afghanistan, and not fully understand the reasons behind it, I doubt it would make any difference to what happened yesterday. Except if it hadnt happened I think wed be far more used to worse by now. Did it provide a justification for AQ, yes. Is that a valid justification? No. Does it matter one jot? No, they would have used something else if we hadnt been involved in the invasion.
So in summary, yes, cause and effect, but its far less clear cut than it has been touted, and applies equally. Does it matter? No, because no matter what we would still be facing the problem of attacks on the UK.