The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Box Brownie said:
I feel/think I might have said similar previously.

One of Johnson's historical political leaders he apparently admires is Churchill....and maybe some commentators have alluded to possible similarities i.e. 'cometh the hour, cometh the man'......least that was the way he maybe was (electorally) seen in regard to Brexit.

But what with the way (in total) he has overseen the handling of Covid19, could he indeed go the way of Churchill at the next election???
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Of course Churchill was hated by the Conservatives (though they don’t mention that now) whereas Johnson is merely despised by them :).
 
sphexx said:
Not surprising. They should be using local government staff, preferably pubic health if there are any left after cutbacks. I strongly doubt I would be answering any questions or following any instructions from a call centre type opreaction.
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Using local staff was exactly what was proposed by the last caller to Radio 4's Any Answers earlier. That was 3.00pm so well after you suggested it Richard. She'd had experience of this.

Here's what she said after agreeing with all she'd heard from previous callers re track and trace which was as stated in the Guardian article posted by Mex...

"The system [for applying] is quite clunky. You have to fight hard to become one of the Covid case workers.It's not easy to get on the phone..you wait hours. I was really passionate wanting to do it having worked in HIV and sexual health all my [working] life.I think one of the strong messages I want to give to people, having worked in infectious disease, is that the virus is like glitter, it's a fomite as well as being transferred through droplets and perhaps aerosol and you just don't know who could be a super shedder. She said that this was the medical term rather than super spreader which is being used. I had to Google what a fomite was so for anyone else who isn't familiar with this term it's an inanimate object /passive vector that when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents.. Eg..pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi, can transfer disease to a new host.

She then said that Dominic Cummings could have been a super shedder and that he went to a hospital in Durham. The presenter had to cut her short as the programme was due to finish in 40 seconds and asked her whether she thinks the system will be up to muster in a day or so or not.

Caller: "I think what's going to happen is that we'll have to become more localised, use local public health officials and systems that have been set up . What seems to have happened is that a whole parallel system seems to have been set up and I think that's what's occured rather than utilising those of us on the ground and local areas"

Programme finished with presenter asking the caller if she was sticking with it and if so she'd like to hear from her again.
 
JohnC6 said:
Using local staff was exactly what was proposed by the last caller to Radio 4's Any Answers earlier. That was 3.00pm so well after you suggested it Richard. She'd had experience of this.

Here's what she said after agreeing with all she'd heard from previous callers re track and trace which was as stated in the Guardian article posted by Mex...

"The system [for applying] is quite clunky. You have to fight hard to become one of the Covid case workers.It's not easy to get on the phone..you wait hours. I was really passionate wanting to do it having worked in HIV and sexual health all my [working] life.I think one of the strong messages I want to give to people, having worked in infectious disease, is that the virus is like glitter, it's a fomite as well as being transferred through droplets and perhaps aerosol and you just don't know who could be a super shedder. She said that this was the medical term rather than super spreader which is being used. I had to Google what a fomite was so for anyone else who isn't familiar with this term it's an inanimate object /passive vector that when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents.. Eg..pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi, can transfer disease to a new host.

She then said that Dominic Cummings could have been a super shedder and that he went to a hospital in Durham. The presenter had to cut her short as the programme was due to finish in 40 seconds and asked her whether she thinks the system will be up to muster in a day or so or not.

Caller: "I think what's going to happen is that we'll have to become more localised, use local public health officials and systems that have been set up . What seems to have happened is that a whole parallel system seems to have been set up and I think that's what's occured rather than utilising those of us on the ground and local areas"

Programme finished with presenter asking the caller if she was sticking with it and if so she'd like to hear from her again.
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It’s not exactly rocket science is it John? Boots on the ground are what is wanted, for local knowledge. There are no advantages for MPs & their friends in that though whereas these centralised or novel systems generate ”jobs for the boys” and contacts useful in their life outside Parliament :(. And they don’t work and that means more “jobs for the boys” ad infinitum:(.
 
JohnC6 wrote (#8,918), inter alia:-

"Scientists are saying it's too early to ease lockdown because there are 8000 new cases a day."

I wonder if all these 8000 new cases are really "new". The number of people being tested has been increasing. Therefore that increased testing is bound to net a significant number of asymptomatic people who are infected (and have been infecting others). Adding that group of people to the total new cases increases the recorded numbers, but does not increase the actual risk to the population because such people already were part of the risk and simply not recorded because they never had cause to seek medical attention.

Statistics can be very misleading.
 
sphexx said:
It’s not exactly rocket science is it John? Boots on the ground are what is wanted, for local knowledge. There are no advantages for MPs & their friends in that though whereas these centralised or novel systems generate ”jobs for the boys” and contacts useful in their life outside Parliament :(. And they don’t work and that means more “jobs for the boys” ad infinitum:(.
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I feel even more depressed now..:(
 
Heres a link to the article I mentioned earlier about deaths unrelated to Covid-19 because of the lockdown. Its not in a journal as I thought but an online magazine that publishes articles written by academics and researchers.

https://theconversation.com/uk
 
Self serving Tories now want the social distancing limit to go down to 1.5m from 2m
 
JohnC6 said:
Scientists are saying it's too early to ease lockdown because there are 8000 new cases a day....8000 ! 56,000 a week.. 224,000 a month taken over two months 448,000 3 months..672,000. The death rate looks to have increased since a few days ago according to the graph at the bottom here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
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Also the number of people that have died each week as reported by the Office for National Statistics rose in the week after the lifting of the lockdown both in number of people dying and the increase over the five year average.
week 19 week ending 8th May five year average 2015/19; 9,576 deaths, 2020; 12,657 deaths an increase of 3,081
week 20 week ending 15th May five year average 2015/19; 10,188 deaths, 2020; 14,573 deaths an increase of 4,385
 
arclight said:
The bulk of the information about transmission that has been given to the general public is very much centered on infection spread by droplet. Perhaps you or Toni would be suitable people to explain the danger from "aerosol" infection and what exactly an aerosol is.
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An aerosol is a very fine suspension of a liquid in a gas - tiny droplets that can hang in the air and therefore travel long distances. I've heard contradictory comments about how the virus spreads, but the main view seems to be that it requires 'droplets' (presumably larger droplets than in aerosols) produced when someone speaks or coughs, rather than the smaller particles of an aerosol that persist for long periods in the air. Flu, for example, is infectious in an aerosol.

The danger is simply that if someone coughs out infectious droplets in an enclosed space then those also occupying that space with them may receive an infectious dose. Generally speaking, for an infection to take hold you need to exceed a certain dose or challenge level, though the dose required may vary between individuals. So where someone is excreting virus into the environment, you may well pass through the infectious cloud as you walk by, but because exposure is brief your dose is too low to permit an infection to take hold. If you sit by the same person on a bus for a 30min journey then it's much more likely that you'll receive enough of a dose to become infected. Also aerosols can travel a long way indoors, carried by air currents.

The key thing here isn't just exposure, but dose. Staying 2M from an infected person reduces the likelyhood of infection because if they are producing substantial droplets containing virus, those droplets are much more likely to sink to the floor before they reach you, so the dose you receive will be small if any at all.

Hope that's useful.
 
Our local hospitals have suspended annual leave in preparation for a second peak.

And got my antibody test back, we definitely had COVID in March.
 
tarric said:
Also the number of people that have died each week as reported by the Office for National Statistics rose in the week after the lifting of the lockdown both in number of people dying and the increase over the five year average.
week 19 week ending 8th May five year average 2015/19; 9,576 deaths, 2020; 12,657 deaths an increase of 3,081
week 20 week ending 15th May five year average 2015/19; 10,188 deaths, 2020; 14,573 deaths an increase of 4,385
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It doesn't bode atall well, does it :rolleyes:
 
KitsuneAndy said:
Our local hospitals have suspended annual leave in preparation for a second peak.

And got my antibody test back, we definitely had COVID in March.
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I would welcome widespread availability of the antibody test. Why, well although it is being discussed as to whether the presence of antibodies is not a 100% proof that a (re) infection will not happen and we do need a a vaccine for protection against potential future infections. NB AFAIK any protection from vaccination is based on triggering the immune response so that the body recognises the invader should further infection arise plus antibodies being present.

Plus, as we have no idea how many have had an asymptomatic infection the antibody test if done widely enough will provide for improved knowledge of/about Covid19!

PS at a tangent and different to the (flu based need for repeat vaccination) in regard to TB I recall the Mantoux test, that if positive as I was the BCG vaccination was not required. I was Mantoux tested again before I worked in the TB testing section of the microbiology lab I worked in during the 1970's
 
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Box Brownie said:
I would welcome widespread availability of the antibody test. Why, well although it is being discussed as to whether the presence of antibodies is not a 100% proof that a (re) infection will not happen and we do need a a vaccine for protection against potential future infections. NB AFAIK any protection from vaccination is based on triggering the immune response so that the body recognises the invader should further infection arise plus antibodies being present.

Plus, as we have no idea how many have had an asymptomatic infection the antibody test if done widely enough will provide for improved knowledge of/about Covid19!

PS at a tangent and different to the (flu based need for repeat vaccination) in regard to TB I recall the Mantoux test, that if positive as I was the BCG vaccination was not required. I was Mantoux tested again before I worked in the TB testing section of the microbiology lab I worked in during the 1970's
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We bought ours privately. We might not be immune, and will welcome a vaccine. But knowing we have some antibodies against it should mean that if we are reinfected it should at least be less severe than the first time around
 
KitsuneAndy said:
We bought ours privately. We might not be immune, and will welcome a vaccine. But knowing we have some antibodies against it should mean that if we are reinfected it should at least be less severe than the first time around
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Thanks for the clarification.......I was unsure how advanced the UK test was. Can I ask were you symptomatic?
 
ancient_mariner said:
An aerosol is a very fine suspension of a liquid in a gas - tiny droplets that can hang in the air and therefore travel long distances. I've heard contradictory comments about how the virus spreads, but the main view seems to be that it requires 'droplets' (presumably larger droplets than in aerosols) produced when someone speaks or coughs, rather than the smaller particles of an aerosol that persist for long periods in the air. Flu, for example, is infectious in an aerosol.

The danger is simply that if someone coughs out infectious droplets in an enclosed space then those also occupying that space with them may receive an infectious dose. Generally speaking, for an infection to take hold you need to exceed a certain dose or challenge level, though the dose required may vary between individuals. So where someone is excreting virus into the environment, you may well pass through the infectious cloud as you walk by, but because exposure is brief your dose is too low to permit an infection to take hold. If you sit by the same person on a bus for a 30min journey then it's much more likely that you'll receive enough of a dose to become infected. Also aerosols can travel a long way indoors, carried by air currents.

The key thing here isn't just exposure, but dose. Staying 2M from an infected person reduces the likelyhood of infection because if they are producing substantial droplets containing virus, those droplets are much more likely to sink to the floor before they reach you, so the dose you receive will be small if any at all.

Hope that's useful.
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Very useful Toni - thanks (y)
 
tarric said:
Also the number of people that have died each week as reported by the Office for National Statistics rose in the week after the lifting of the lockdown both in number of people dying and the increase over the five year average.
week 19 week ending 8th May five year average 2015/19; 9,576 deaths, 2020; 12,657 deaths an increase of 3,081
week 20 week ending 15th May five year average 2015/19; 10,188 deaths, 2020; 14,573 deaths an increase of 4,385
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And the lifting of the lockdown would have pretty much naff all impact on the death rate for the week after.
 
tarric said:
Also the number of people that have died each week as reported by the Office for National Statistics rose in the week after the lifting of the lockdown both in number of people dying and the increase over the five year average.
week 19 week ending 8th May five year average 2015/19; 9,576 deaths, 2020; 12,657 deaths an increase of 3,081
week 20 week ending 15th May five year average 2015/19; 10,188 deaths, 2020; 14,573 deaths an increase of 4,385
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cambsno said:
And the lifting of the lockdown would have pretty much naff all impact on the death rate for the week after.
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The second test was to see a "sustained and consistent" fall in the daily death rate.
 
tarric said:
The second test was to see a "sustained and consistent" fall in the daily death rate.
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Would hardy call a one week increase a sustained and increased rate though... depends what you are measuring!
 
cambsno said:
How is it self serving - other countries use 1m as the standard,
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Others don't, for example the US which is 6ft and Netherlands is 1.5m, can't be bothered to look up loads more.
Those Tory MP's only want it reduced for economical reasons, not sure why you are so anti lockdown though
 
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tijuana taxi said:
Others don't, for example the US which is 6ft and Netherlands is 1.5m, can't be bothered to look up loads more.
Those Tory MP's only want it reduced for economical reasons, not sure why you are so anti lockdown though
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I think some states in Australia are 1 metre but they’ve had far fewer cases than most.

[In Australia some (not most) people would have to travel a long way to get as close as 1 metre from a stranger :).]
 
I think the WHO advice is 1 metre.
 
tijuana taxi said:
Others don't, for example the US which is 6ft and Netherlands is 1.5m, can't be bothered to look up loads more.
Those Tory MP's only want it reduced for economical reasons, not sure why you are so anti lockdown though
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Also don’t sit in seats which have been occupied hours ago by non-symptomatic super shedders:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763

Tricky one that :(.

Also:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected
 
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Disappointed to see Starmer allowing his whip to resign for breaking lockdown rules. Surely he should have defended her to the hilt [emoji846][emoji846]
 
I hope I am wrong but I think it is just a matter of time before there is a second spike.

I know it won't happen but if there is a new spike I would like the government(for whom I have no love) to say.

"We told you what to do but a lot of you decided that you knew better and ignored it. We now have a second peak in cases and we are now going back to a full lock down. Don't moan about it, you know who you are and you only have yourselves to blame."

In the BBC account of the Durdle Door incident they interviewed someone on a trip from London! Is there no where closer to London to get some fresh air than Dorset?

Dave
 
Tringa said:
I hope I am wrong but I think it is just a matter of time before there is a second spike.

I know it won't happen but if there is a new spike I would like the government(for whom I have no love) to say.

"We told you what to do but a lot of you decided that you knew better and ignored it. We now have a second peak in cases and we are now going back to a full lock down. Don't moan about it, you know who you are and you only have yourselves to blame."

In the BBC account of the Durdle Door incident they interviewed someone on a trip from London! Is there no where closer to London to get some fresh air than Dorset?

Dave
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I saw that comment from a London day tripper, must be about a 250 mile round trip.
Hope she had a strong bladder, don't suppose many facilities were open enroute

We were discussing this at home and came to the conclusion that this relaxation might be a Covid Litmus paper test.
They know some people will take the p*** and can see if it does cause a spike
 
Tringa said:
I hope I am wrong but I think it is just a matter of time before there is a second spike.

I know it won't happen but if there is a new spike I would like the government(for whom I have no love) to say.

"We told you what to do but a lot of you decided that you knew better and ignored it. We now have a second peak in cases and we are now going back to a full lock down. Don't moan about it, you know who you are and you only have yourselves to blame."

In the BBC account of the Durdle Door incident they interviewed someone on a trip from London! Is there no where closer to London to get some fresh air than Dorset?

Dave
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Re: Durdle Door ~ in the news bulletin I heard there were even some 'Darwin Awards' contestants tombstoning off of the cliffs. Beggars belief with lack of social responsibility being exhibited by all those that traveled so far to visit the place......let alone and especially those risking life & limb in pursuit of their 'sport'!
 
Purbeck Police FB page
https://m.facebook.com/PurbeckPolice/
One item about needing to clear the beach @ Durdle Door to get space for 2 air ambulances to land re: injured from diving off of the cliffs.

Plus another one about fire service needing to tackle a fire in Wareham Forest that was thought to have been started by someone using a disposable BBQ........more lack of social responsibility and proper consideration of what can happen by misuse of the disposable BBQs!
 
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