The virus. PPE. Part 1

[Donnie]

Should the R rate not be measured purely in the community and not care homes/hospitals as the latter are often sources of frequent infections.

Not sure what you are implying.

Check the bold above in your unsubstantiated statement. Got a source?

Surely to get the economy up and running again it is important to know how the virus is currently spreading throughout the community.

Yes indeed, are you implying that care homes and hospitals (in particular Community Hospitals) are irrelevant to the spread of covid?

You will already know

Source?

that during the influenza season it is often rampant in care homes,

Source?

so by measuring the R number across all places it is not giving a true picture of what is going on currently in the community.

Why not?

 

[dcash29]

The official estimate of the pandemic "R" number has risen slightly over the last week, according to a consensus by scientists advising the government.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the UK reproduction number for the coronavirus is now between 0.7 and 1, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last week.


The slight increase, based on calculations done by six research groups, is being attributed to cases in care homes and hospitals accounting for a greater proportion of the overall total.

From what Ive heard the R number isn't that important now. London isn't looking as bad so the Government wants to get back to normal, b*****ks to the teachers and anyone up north.

 

[sphexx]

From what Ive heard the R number isn't that important now. London isn't looking as bad so the Government wants to get back to normal, b*****ks to the teachers and anyone up north.

(My bold) Where did you hear it?

 

[Peter10d]

Check the bold above in your unsubstantiated statement. Got a source?



Yes indeed, are you implying that care homes and hospitals (in particular Community Hospitals) are irrelevant to the spread of covid?



Source?



Source?

I have a friend who between him and his family own 11 care homes in Scotland and prior to this outbreak frequently discussed how care homes were rampant in the winter with influenza. I would guess given the likely age and cormobidities of the people it is only natural that viruses will spread really quickly in these places.

My neice is a nurse in a major hospital so we hear everything first hand as to what is going on. Before it was reported in numbers in the Scottish press she advised us that covid19 had spread to four wards within a matter of days.



Why not?

I have a friend who between him and his family own 11 care homes in Scotland and prior to this outbreak frequently discussed how care homes were rampant in the winter with influenza. I would guess given the likely age and cormobidities of the people it is only natural that viruses will spread really quickly in these places.

My neice is a nurse in a major hospital so we hear everything first hand as to what is going on. Before it was reported in numbers in the Scottish press she advised us that covid19 had spread to four wards within a matter of days.


Given that nobody is allowed to visit care homes or hospitals, I would have thought the rate of transmission coming out of hospitals into the community must be fairly low considering the efforts by all nurses, doctors and care workers.


I am not saying open everying up, but I am just wondering what the current spread is like in the community given that the vast majority of people have been applying social distancing for 7 weeks now. I would really like to think that effort from the public is having a huge benefit.

 

[Fuji Dave]

(My bold) Where did you hear it?

He might mean this.

Harries: R number is not our focus
Sam Coates from Sky asks whether the so-called R number is best measure to use.
Dr Jenny Harries says the R number – the rate of infection – is a “very standard way of looking and comparing what’s happening”.
She says it is an “important measure but not the only one”.
It is about looking for a reduction in the number of cases, she says. “That is our focus, not R.”
It comes as the revised figures from the Sage group of scientific advisers say the R number has increased and is now between 0.7 and 1.0. Anything above 1.0 means the number of cases is increasing.

 

[ancient_mariner]

OK, here's an interesting thing.

We (as a company) bought in some EU approved LFD test kits for detecting antibodies to Covid-19. We need to know how exposed we would be if the staff were to become infected and were unable to work so that we can line up some assistance. Out of around 25 staff tested, one was positive, the most likely occasion of infection being traced to a concert they attended a week before lockdown, based both on when they were last close to a large number of people and the fact that their IgM level was reduced while they also showed a strong IgG response. The result was not ambiguous.

They were asymptomatic - no cough, fever, headache, anosmia etc - and they also appear to have been un-infectious. They worked full time throughout the time they would have been infected, and due to the nature of some of our work were not socially distanced. Likewise their family with whom they live (some of whom should be susceptible) have not shown any sign of infection.

It's an interesting data point, to me at least.

 

[ancient_mariner]

I must be rather less optimistic in the people’s sense of outrage and ability to recall any possible manipulation of figures than you are.

As I noted about scientists, many people may view the same data as you but come to different conclusions due to their own particular viewpoint, or find the alternative outcome to appear even less good.

 

[Retune]

OK, here's an interesting thing.

We (as a company) bought in some EU approved LFD test kits for detecting antibodies to Covid-19. We need to know how exposed we would be if the staff were to become infected and were unable to work so that we can line up some assistance. Out of around 25 staff tested, one was positive, the most likely occasion of infection being traced to a concert they attended a week before lockdown, based both on when they were last close to a large number of people and the fact that their IgM level was reduced while they also showed a strong IgG response. The result was not ambiguous.

They were asymptomatic - no cough, fever, headache, anosmia etc - and they also appear to have been un-infectious. They worked full time throughout the time they would have been infected, and due to the nature of some of our work were not socially distanced. Likewise their family with whom they live (some of whom should be susceptible) have not shown any sign of infection.

It's an interesting data point, to me at least.

I wonder how much transmission is happening from never-symptomatic cases, as opposed to pre-symptomatic (where it seems to be very significant)? Tricky to study, as the former will usually go unnoticed.

 

[ancient_mariner]

I wonder how much transmission is happening from never-symptomatic cases, as opposed to pre-symptomatic (where it seems to be very significant)? Tricky to study, as the former will usually go unnoticed.

Without a history of personal contact and >50% population screening every few weeks we'll never know.

 

[Uncle Fester]

As I noted about scientists, many people may view the same data as you but come to different conclusions due to their own particular viewpoint, or find the alternative outcome to appear even less good.

I totally agree.

That’s why I’d prefer any decision about whether the five tests have been met or not to be made by a group of scientists and not a single person. Hopefully individual personal viewpoint would be cancelled out by the majority expert opinion.

There’s probably no ‘perfect’ way of making any decision or interpreting information. I’d just prefer that those with more expertise and possibly less bias to be the ones doing the job.

 

[sphexx]

He might mean this.

Harries: R number is not our focus
Sam Coates from Sky asks whether the so-called R number is best measure to use.
Dr Jenny Harries says the R number – the rate of infection – is a “very standard way of looking and comparing what’s happening”.
She says it is an “important measure but not the only one”.
It is about looking for a reduction in the number of cases, she says. “That is our focus, not R.”
It comes as the revised figures from the Sage group of scientific advisers say the R number has increased and is now between 0.7 and 1.0. Anything above 1.0 means the number of cases is increasing.

Ah, its‘s similar to when our death count exceeded other European countries and HMG stopped comparing. Now the R is potentially going up they are going to find another “focus“. How is that going to affect the Alert Level I wonder with the “formula“ based on R .

 

[Fuji Dave]

Ah, its‘s similar to when our death count exceeded other European countries and HMG stopped comparing. Now the R is potentially going up they are going to find another “focus“. How is that going to affect the Alert Level I wonder with the “formula“ based on R .

I hope I`m wrong, but I think it will go over one and then back to the lockdown.

 

[cambsno]

Ah, its‘s similar to when our death count exceeded other European countries and HMG stopped comparing. Now the R is potentially going up they are going to find another “focus“. How is that going to affect the Alert Level I wonder with the “formula“ based on R .

Isn’t the r level very hard to calculate, and so not that accurate. It is bound to go up and down each day, so a small increase or decrease on individual days is neither bad nor good?

 

[sphexx]

Isn’t the r level very hard to calculate,

I think so.

and so not that accurate.

Doesn’t necessarily follow I think, and it depends what is meant by “accurate”

It is bound to go up and down each day

Don’t think so it could be up & up & up or down & down & down or stay the same .

so a small increase or decrease on individual days is neither bad nor good?

Generally true of measurements .

Edit to say I was being a bit flippant there when really I agree with you. I listened yesterday (was it BBC Inside Science podcast?) to a description of calculating R when you don’t have all the wanted data yet and it seemed to me there was a fair bit of witchcraft involved .

 

[Fuji Dave]

Isn’t the r level very hard to calculate, and so not that accurate. It is bound to go up and down each day, so a small increase or decrease on individual days is neither bad nor good?

I think in Germany the R is over one, but they are trying to carry on while keeping an eye on it.

 

[Retune]

I think in Germany the R is over one, but they are trying to carry on while keeping an eye on it.

The estimated R is now below 1, but as you say they are keeping an eye on it.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-05-15-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

 

[Peter10d]

I think so. Doesn’t necessarily follow I think, and it depends what is meant by “accurate”

This is exactly what I was implying a few threads ago that the accuracy was questionable. In Scotland the R rate is apparently higher than the rest of the UK. At the same time Scotland currently has the highest rate of care homes covid fatalities (as per several Scottish media programs), which to me would imply the care homes are currently affecting the R rate.
Having heard that the R rate can vary from area to area it surely must also be true that it could vary between care homes and the local community within the same geographical area.

 

[Peter10d]

Coronavirus: Suddenly, the government isn't so sure the R rate is important http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-is-the-r-rate-not-quite-as-significant-as-we-thought-11989111



Just reported on sky news what I have been suggesting.

 

[dcash29]

Its called...

 

[mikew]

Borris says stay away from beauty spots, yet he is the one that lifted travel restrictions, its looking like a forest fire with controlled burning being tried

 

[danbroad]

What I find odd... is that politicians are throwing the usual spin out against the perfect apolitical ‘enemy’ as though it represents some kind of victory. This virus cannot be talked down. It does not respect authority. It has nothing to lose or to gain. Bias, manipulation of figures, skewed reporting, soundbites and slogans... mean nothing to it. It has no feelings to hurt, no pride or bravado, it won’t compromise or negotiate. It cannot be fought with politik or with conventional armed response. So, when we evolved monkeys start talking it away, or changing how it’s counted, or reducing the significance of its index number etc etc, the truth will always out. Either it’s there or it isn’t, no amount of miscounting or statistical recalculations can hide it.

When the R falls to zero, it is beaten. But when the R number starts being ‘less significant’, well that’s a human decision and not a viral one.

 

[sphexx]

What I find odd... is that politicians are throwing the usual spin out against the perfect apolitical ‘enemy’ as though it represents some kind of victory. This virus cannot be talked down. It does not respect authority. It has nothing to lose or to gain. Bias, manipulation of figures, skewed reporting, soundbites and slogans... mean nothing to it. It has no feelings to hurt, no pride or bravado, it won’t compromise or negotiate. It cannot be fought with politik or with conventional armed response. So, when we evolved monkeys start talking it away, or changing how it’s counted, or reducing the significance of its index number etc etc, the truth will always out. Either it’s there or it isn’t, no amount of miscounting or statistical recalculations can hide it.

When the R falls to zero, it is beaten. But when the R number starts being ‘less significant’, well that’s a human decision and not a viral one.

Yes. The virus does what a virus does and our current politicians likewise . Many (most?) of them have had no other job or none that requires any expertise. The PM is a journalist if he’s anything but I’m willing to bet he’s never done a course in journalism, he just writes what’s in his head.

 

[nilagin]

Borris says stay away from beauty spots, yet he is the one that lifted travel restrictions, its looking like a forest fire with controlled burning being tried

As I posted the other day, plenty of toilet paper in the shops.

 

[arclight]

I hope I`m wrong, but I think it will go over one and then back to the lockdown.

Could that now be part of the strategy ?
At every daily Downing St. briefing they repeatedly re-emphasise the need to obey the lockdown conditions and that the drop in the infection rates has been due to observance of the lockdown.
However, the lockdown is increasingly being ignored because people have stopped listening (familiarity breeds contempt). Time to give the hoi polloi a nip on the bum with a hot needle. An increase in the casualty rate may be the first warning to get back into line.

 

[sphexx]

Could that now be part of the strategy ?
At every daily Downing St. briefing they repeatedly re-emphasise the need to obey the lockdown conditions and that the drop in the infection rates has been due to observance of the lockdown.
However, the lockdown is increasingly being ignored because people have stopped listening (familiarity breeds contempt). Time to give the hoi polloi a nip on the bum with a hot needle. An increase in the casualty rate may be the first warning to get back into line.

Though I think it’s just the confused messaging by HMG .

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

Though I think it’s just the confused messaging by HMG.

I think that's a symptom of the underlying malady of this government; they think that winning an election proves their fitness to govern, whereas all it really proves is that their lies were more easily swallowed by the electorate than the lies of the other candidates.

 

[Uncle Fester]

The PM is a journalist if he’s anything but I’m willing to bet he’s never done a course in journalism, he just writes what’s in his head.

Johnson saw his career in journalism as a means of butchering the truth, not reporting it.

He's as much of a journalist as Shipman was a doctor.

 

[Gremlin]

However, the lockdown is increasingly being ignored because people have stopped listening (familiarity breeds contempt). Time to give the hoi polloi a nip on the bum with a hot needle. An increase in the casualty rate may be the first warning to get back into line.

I live on an over 50s complex, mix of houses and flats, most of the population are in their 80s
VE day arrives and a couple of think they can do w
The result was a scathing letter from the management people and a visit to one of the organisers from
the the local PCOs
Their next move was to go round and ask people not to do the clap for the NHS, which some did ignore
and carried on as usual
What annoys me is that we have already been asked once to obey the rules because of what has
happened on other estates, if anything happens again any use of the gardens will be banned, leaving us that live in
flats with nowhere to get fresh air unless we actually leave the estate, which many can't do

 

[Mozthecat]

It’s a funny one cause our flat management company are very good at trying to make up rules they cannot enforce because there is no basis for them in the lease. Not helped By the fact we are permanent residents in our “estate” of 60 or so flats in five blocks in a small town and their specialty is student accommodation in Oxford.

Examples are their blanket site rules that claim pets are not allowed, introduced 8 years after we got our cats...

 

[arclight]

I live on an over 50s complex, mix of houses and flats, most of the population are in their 80s
VE day arrives and a couple of think they can do w
The result was a scathing letter from the management people and a visit to one of the organisers from
the the local PCOs
Their next move was to go round and ask people not to do the clap for the NHS, which some did ignore
and carried on as usual
What annoys me is that we have already been asked once to obey the rules because of what has
happened on other estates, if anything happens again any use of the gardens will be banned, leaving us that live in
flats with nowhere to get fresh air unless we actually leave the estate, which many can't do

 

[cambsno]

Could that now be part of the strategy ?
At every daily Downing St. briefing they repeatedly re-emphasise the need to obey the lockdown conditions and that the drop in the infection rates has been due to observance of the lockdown.
However, the lockdown is increasingly being ignored because people have stopped listening (familiarity breeds contempt). Time to give the hoi polloi a nip on the bum with a hot needle. An increase in the casualty rate may be the first warning to get back into line.

And that will not work - people will not put up with more lockdown and restrictions. It was 'fine' for a few weeks, to burst the bubble, but we cannot live like this forever. If you are under 60 and in good health then you have nothing to fear. People do not see Covid as something dangerous to them, and anyone vulnerable should be isolating anyway. We have been in lockdown for 7/8 weeks, and it is starting to impact on peoples health, finances and general well-being.

 

[arclight]

Gremlin said
"
I live on an over 50s complex, mix of houses and flats, most of the population are in their 80s
VE day arrives and a couple of think they can do w
The result was a scathing letter from the management people and a visit to one of the organisers from
the the local PCOs
Their next move was to go round and ask people not to do the clap for the NHS, which some did ignore
and carried on as usual
What annoys me is that we have already been asked once to obey the rules because of what has
happened on other estates, if anything happens again any use of the gardens will be banned, leaving us that live in
flats with nowhere to get fresh air unless we actually leave the estate, which many can't do "

That sounds disgraceful.
Is the head honcho Kim Jong-Un ?
I think the press would have a field day with that narrative.

 

[cambsno]

Though I think it’s just the confused messaging by HMG .

I don't think its that confusing - seriously, what is not to understand?

Some rules don't make a lot of sense (i.e. why cant i meet my mum and dad at the same time if they are both in the same house?) but they are pretty clear to understand.

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

It’s a funny one cause our flat management company are very good at trying to make up rules they cannot enforce because there is no basis for them in the lease.

Sometimes there's a blanket catch all clause that requires the tenant to do nothing which interferes with the quiet enjoyment of other residents. It can be very expensive to defend against the landlord enforcing such a clause in whatever way they choose to interpret it.

 

[sphexx]

I don't think its that confusing - seriously, what is not to understand?

Some rules don't make a lot of sense (i.e. why cant i meet my mum and dad at the same time if they are both in the same house?) but they are pretty clear to understand.

You may not think it’s confusing but many do. HMG spent the week leaking to the media that Johnson was going to announce a relaxation of the lockdown on Sunday, which was widely taken to be ”lifting” the lockdown. Then at the weekend they leaked the “Stay Alert” slogan to The Telegraph. Then on Sunday he announced ... well what did he announce, it was all very vague? People have taken from it what they want and it only applies to England so presumably he was speaking as the PM of England but there’s no such position .

 

[Retune]

If you are under 60 and in good health then you have nothing to fear.

If that were true, NHS staff under 60 would abandon PPE, since they would have nothing to worry about. Yes, the risk is very much greater in older age groups, but it never goes away for any age group, and we don't yet know what long-term effects those who recover may suffer. There is a relatively safe way out of the lockdown, which is to wait for transmission to fall substantially while putting in place the infrastructure for effective testing, tracing and isolation. A premature end to the lockdown without adequate capacity to test and trace just means more cases and more deaths.

 

[sphexx]

And that will not work - people will not put up with more lockdown and restrictions. It was 'fine' for a few weeks, to burst the bubble, but we cannot live like this forever.

Welcome to new world of home working, it’s just come earlier than expected. This is how it used to be before the Industrial Revolution crammed people into factories and towns. Home working & local working are the future .

If you are under 60 and in good health then you have nothing to fear. People do not see Covid as something dangerous to them, and anyone vulnerable should be isolating anyway. We have been in lockdown for 7/8 weeks, and it is starting to impact on peoples health, finances and general well-being.

 

[cambsno]

You may not think it’s confusing but many do. HMG spent the week leaking to the media that Johnson was going to announce a relaxation of the lockdown on Sunday, which was widely taken to be ”lifting” the lockdown. Then at the weekend they leaked the “Stay Alert” slogan to The Telegraph. Then on Sunday he announced ... well what did he announce, it was all very vague? People have taken from it what they want and it only applies to England so presumably he was speaking as the PM of England but there’s no such position .

We, there are a lot of stupid people around!!! Its pretty simple to understand and he did relax the lockdown, if people read 2+2 and get 5 its not really anyones fault but their own. My 12 year old son can easily follow the new guidance and has enjoyed playing with his mate for the first time in weeks.

Virtually every other country has regional differences in lockdown, Madrid and Valencia I think are treated differently, and the German regions have had different rules too, so it makes sense for us to have regional differences too.

 

[cambsno]

If that were true, NHS staff under 60 would abandon PPE, since they would have nothing to worry about. Yes, the risk is very much greater in older age groups, but it never goes away for any age group, and we don't yet know what long-term effects those who recover may suffer. There is a relatively safe way out of the lockdown, which is to wait for transmission to fall substantially while putting in place the infrastructure for effective testing, tracing and isolation. A premature end to the lockdown without adequate capacity to test and trace just means more cases and more deaths.

Its different working in an environment with a lots of infections and meeting up with a few mates down the park or for a BBQ. The amount of exposure too could be an issue. Rightly or wrongly though, people who are low risk are seeing that its probably doing them more harm than good.

 

[cambsno]

Welcome to new world of home working, it’s just come earlier than expected. This is how it used to be before the Industrial Revolution crammed people into factories and towns. Home working & local working are the future .

It is, and I think that is a good thing - although its not new for me, as have been working from home on and off a lot the last 10 years or so.