The virus. PPE. Part 1

[nilagin]

Can you point to references for this?

This must be amongst the most important pieces of information we could have when doing the rough and ready comparisons that people are making between countries.

Among other media reports, it has even been reported by certain forum members favourite source of information, The Guardian.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/is-comparing-covid-19-death-rates-across-europe-helpful-&ved=2ahUKEwjewvzm66jpAhWxSBUIHYQ7AgsQFjAIegQIBRAC&usg=AOvVaw2PcvkvSVVI__TTXFJbQRXY&ampcf=1.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?cli...yOS41mAEAoAEBsAEP&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp

I can't remember which new source came up with one bit of information, but it was regarding, the UK's lack of action and the NHS struggling to cope. A photo had been shown of patients laying on a hospital floor. It later transpired the photo was taken in Spain or Italy, not the UK.

 

[Tori_T]

@mikew , you copied the link title into the address field.

 

[mikew]

That link doesn't work for me but I presume it's relating to the multiple organ failures in children?

If so this has been reported in the UK already (I knew of it) and in the Lancet but came as a complete surprise to the presenter on radio 5 piece I heard talking to some American. I believe I'm right in saying that the number of affected children is low, I think I heard 12 in the UK, and that a link to c19 isn't certain as some affected children have tested negative for c19.

It may be c19 related or it may be something different. Maybe there's not enough information or cases to determine what it is yet.

It came from the BBC news site i cant find it again, something to do with blood vessels, i think it said 3 deaths and about 70 cases

 

[myotis]

Among other media reports, it has even been reported by certain forum members favourite source of information, The Guardian.

Thanks. The Guardian piece is obviously out of date, and of course many of the references your google search found I had also found. I was hoping for something a little more definitive on what numbers were currently being used and how they were being collected/collated.

 

[sphexx]

It seems to me the lockdown in England is effectively over. Multiple media sources are reporting that “UK government’s new advice for people to “stay alert” instead of “stay at home””

What on earth does “stay alert” mean in the context of a virus? If they abandon the “stay at home” message people will assume it’s OK to go anywhere.

 

[woof woof]

It seems to me the lockdown in England is effectively over. Multiple media sources are reporting that “UK government’s new advice for people to “stay alert” instead of “stay at home””

What on earth does “stay alert” mean in the context of a virus? If they abandon the “stay at home” message people will assume it’s OK to go anywhere.

This does seem to be all over the media and IMO irresponsibly so.

We'll have to wait for the official announcement but the trend and push seems to be for the lockdown to be eased. I'm tempted to say society will get what it deserves. Whatever happens the media and friendface crowd will find something to shriek about.

 

[sphexx]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

 

[Retune]

This does seem to be all over the media and IMO irresponsibly so.

We'll have to wait for the official announcement but the trend and push seems to be for the lockdown to be eased. I'm tempted to say society will get what it deserves. Whatever happens the media and friendface crowd will find something to shriek about.

It already has been confirmed. Government spokesmen have quoted the new slogan on live TV. The irresponsibility here is not the media's. Have a look at the number of new cases per day we are still seeing, and factor in that this does not include the large majority of community cases that aren't being counted:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Does this seem like a great time for more permissive messaging?

 

[woof woof]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

Great. Vote for a government like Greece has and all will be well next time.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

I find that figure hard to believe, but they were very quick to react in closing things down and imposing lockdown.
What we should have done.....

 

[Tringa]

Thought the comment by Andrew Marr this morning about how six of the tabloids during the week would not have similar headlines about how the lock down is going to be over this Monday without a definite leak from the Government. Robert Jenrick was waffling and it was difficult to see any difference between what we have now and what might be the new message.

Just have to wait and see tonight, though I won't hold my breath for anymore clarity from Boris.

Dave

 

[woof woof]

It already has been confirmed. Government spokesmen have quoted the new slogan on live TV. The irresponsibility here is not the media's. Have a look at the number of new cases per day we are still seeing, and factor in that this does not include the large majority of community cases that aren't being counted:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Does this seem like a great time for more permissive messaging?

I think it is irresponsible as it's been going on for days, weeks even. Did you forget or miss that?

As to the rest. Don't ask me. I'd have been in favour of stricter measures much sooner and in a country that had been run my me for decades we'd have had the manufacturing and health capacities to cope better.

Of course none of that would be possible as no one would vote for me Maybe for one term but not the next.

 

[Retune]

I think it is irresponsible as it's been going on for days, weeks even. Did you forget or miss that?

You think it's irresponsible for them to report on something the government is actually going to do, and probably leaked in the first place?

 

[myotis]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

IF (and it's a big if) you take into account the difference in population, and you assume that Greece is reporting deaths using the WHO protocols, and you assume that 90% of deaths are of people with an underlying health condition, you get an expected number of people in Greece dying from Covid-19 of around 480 (four hundred and eighty). And that is ignoring any difference in recording deaths in care homes and demographic differences that should be taken into account.

I'm not saying any of these things are the case, but the fact the UK are counting every death that has "involved" Covid-19, and are now recording deaths outside hospitals, and have the second biggest population in Europe, "could" explain large differences in comparative death counts.

It may well be that we are doing far worse than other European countries, but even extreme differences like the one you quote might still make for a misleading comparison.

 

[myotis]

It already has been confirmed. Government spokesmen have quoted the new slogan on live TV. The irresponsibility here is not the media's. Have a look at the number of new cases per day we are still seeing, and factor in that this does not include the large majority of community cases that aren't being counted:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Does this seem like a great time for more permissive messaging?

It's also been reported that the new slogan will apply to England only and has not been discussed with Scotland, Wales with Northern Ireland (but will be discussed with them at a Cobra meeting to be held before the PM presentation this evening).

Scotland and Wales have already said they will not be changing from the stay at home slogan. As if things weren't already confused enough across the four nations :-(

 

[nilagin]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

Probably no reason for anyone to go to Greece in the winter.

 

[myotis]

It seems to me the lockdown in England is effectively over. Multiple media sources are reporting that “UK government’s new advice for people to “stay alert” instead of “stay at home””

What on earth does “stay alert” mean in the context of a virus? If they abandon the “stay at home” message people will assume it’s OK to go anywhere.

For the Scots and the Welsh, "stay alert" will mean staying alert for the Englsh trying to sneak across the border, as the "stay at home" message is going to remain for Wales and Scotland.

Seriously, while we need to wait for the official announcement (even though Ministers have already quoted it) this does sound like a massively premature change in policy.

 

[nilagin]

Have a look at the number of new cases per day we are still seeing, and factor in that this does not include the large majority of community cases that aren't being counted:

They aren't all new cases. Some of them are confirmation of older cases that have been added on to each particular day. The same goes for death tallies.

 

[woof woof]

You think it's irresponsible for them to report on something the government is actually going to do, and probably leaked in the first place?

If that's what happened then no but do you think government leaks are at the bottom of it all? And a useful question, what would you do differently?

 

[Retune]

Interesting article on the BBC about a group of people being infected with what *sounds* like coronavirus. In December 2019. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

At this stage it's all anecdotal, but having suggested to @Bebop that the infection her family experienced was too early, coupling this with the positive sample from France from the beginning of December, I'm now starting to think the virus has been in Europe for quite some time, and was also probably in circulation in China for longer than realised. There's other questions this throws up, like where are the bodies IF it was here, but those are secondary.

A few years ago I had the worst cough I can remember, together with fatigue and a strange loss of taste and smell I'd never experienced before. If I had exactly the same symptoms today, I'd definitely assume it was COVID-19! But it's interesting that there is a direct link between this group and Wuhan from a period when the virus must have circulating (and even a previous example of 'superspreading' at choir practice in the US, perhaps associated with singing).

Kari Stefansson from deCODE genetics was just on the BBC Click programme talking about the epidemic in Iceland. The programme wasn't great overall (the presenter's script confused incidental mutations with 'strains' of the virus) but there were some interesting contributions from Stefansson. They've done a lot of sequencing and concluded there were multiple introductions from the UK early on, suggesting widespread community transmission was happening here some time before we detected it. Iceland has also done a good job of suppressing the epidemic, and when asked whether the same thing would be practical in a much larger population like the UK's, he suggested this wasn't an excuse - while we have many more cases to deal with, we also have far greater resources, so the same methods (testing and contact tracing) could be scaled up if there were the will to do it.

 

[mex]

“It beggars belief that government sources have, regardless, been briefing that the end of lockdown is nigh, and floating, then stepping back from, major policy changes – such as the potential for households to mix in closed groups of up to 10 people. It is a recipe for sowing confusion and seeding a laidback approach to social distancing. New policy should be announced only to parliament or at the daily press conference. We can only hope that the public continues to listen to and comply with social distancing, despite the government’s unclear messages.
“These shambolic communications are a sign of a worrying lack of competence at the heart of government. Bombastic war metaphors are being used as a substitute for long-term strategy.” (Observer Sunday Editorial nailing it.. My dearest tin hats, If this crap was a conspiracy to take away your freedoms the Gov certainly wouldn't be handling it this way..)

 

[Retune]

If that's what happened then no but do you think government leaks are at the bottom of it all? And a useful question, what would you do differently?

Personally, I wouldn't relax the lockdown until the number of daily cases had fallen really substantially and we had a full-scale testing and contact-tracing capacity in place to manage flare-ups. Perhaps this is the plan, but I think that sending mixed signals could increase the risk of transmission in the meantime.

 

[sphexx]

Great. Vote for a government like Greece has and all will be well next time.

A curious take on my post ;(

 

[woof woof]

Iceland has also done a good job of suppressing the epidemic, and when asked whether the same thing would be practical in a much larger population like the UK's, he suggested this wasn't an excuse - while we have many more cases to deal with, we also have far greater resources, so the same methods (testing and contact tracing) could be scaled up if there were the will to do it.

Time and resources have to be factors here.

You can't just magic up the ability to manufacture or otherwise obtain the tests, places to do it and places to gain and analyse the results. That's one difference scaling up could make. You could maybe do it quickly for Iceland but fall on your arse if trying to do it for 60+ million in the UK.

 

[woof woof]

A curious take on my post ;(

My point is that maybe people using other countries as examples and looking at other ways of doing things wouldn't be happy to see it happen in the UK.

 

[woof woof]

Personally, I wouldn't relax the lockdown until the number of daily cases had fallen really substantially and we had a full-scale testing and contact-tracing capacity in place to manage flare-ups. Perhaps this is the plan, but I think that sending mixed signals could increase the risk of transmission in the meantime.

I agree but do social media and the BBC?

I think there's pressure and doing the right thing will probably be balanced against it. That may not be right but it may be what'll happen.

 

[sphexx]

For the Scots and the Welsh, "stay alert" will mean staying alert for the Englsh trying to sneak across the border, as the "stay at home" message is going to remain for Wales and Scotland.

Seriously, while we need to wait for the official announcement (even though Ministers have already quoted it) this does sound like a massively premature change in policy.

You may something there , the reports of more traffic (from mobile gps apps) say that the increase in traffic in N Yorks is due to “incomers” visiting beauty spots .

 

[Fuji Dave]

One thing that has really stuck out during the virus is, the media have just been bad from day one saying this that and everything. They are the ones that are working peoples hopes up for the lockdown easing right up, well for them scum as I call them dream on as it`s NOT.

 

[sphexx]

My point is that maybe people using other countries as examples and looking at other ways of doing things wouldn't be happy to see it happen in the UK.

I still can’t understand you, regardless of Greece’s politics (I think they have a centre-right govt at present?), the point is they are a western European democracy not noted for the population following rules blindly, who locked down early, it’s claimed because they knew their health service was inadequate. AFAIK they only did what the UK could have, and did do too late, done .

 

[arclight]

Britain is the sick man of Europe ... again!

150 deaths from CV-19 in Greece, no not 150,000, nor 15,000, nor 1500, but 150 ... of course we must not make simplistic country comparisons .

Greece has 2700 total cases. UK has 215,000 total cases.
Therefore UK has 80 times the number of cases than Greece, but UK population is only 6.5 times that of Greece. I wonder what the explanation is for such a disparity.

I regard a lot of the statistics that are in circulation with a high degree of suspicion.

 

[sphexx]

It's also been reported that the new slogan will apply to England only and has not been discussed with Scotland, Wales with Northern Ireland (but will be discussed with them at a Cobra meeting to be held before the PM presentation this evening).

Scotland and Wales have already said they will not be changing from the stay at home slogan. As if things weren't already confused enough across the four nations :-(

Typical HMG “consultation’, where they decide what they will do, then tell people and ask their opinion, and then do it anyway ‘after consultation’ .

 

[nilagin]

“It beggars belief that government sources have, regardless, been briefing that the end of lockdown is nigh, and floating, then stepping back from, major policy changes – such as the potential for households to mix in closed groups of up to 10 people. It is a recipe for sowing confusion and seeding a laidback approach to social distancing. New policy should be announced only to parliament or at the daily press conference. We can only hope that the public continues to listen to and comply with social distancing, despite the government’s unclear messages.
“These shambolic communications are a sign of a worrying lack of competence at the heart of government. Bombastic war metaphors are being used as a substitute for long-term strategy.” (Observer Sunday Editorial nailing it.. My dearest tin hats, If this crap was a conspiracy to take away your freedoms the Gov certainly wouldn't be handling it this way..)

I think you will find you have just fallen for media's ideas portrayed as the government's ideas.

 

[Retune]

Time and resources have to be factors here.

You can't just magic up the ability to manufacture or otherwise obtain the tests, places to do it and places to gain and analyse the results. That's one difference scaling up could make. You could maybe do it quickly for Iceland but fall on your arse if trying to do it for 60+ million in the UK.

Well, this is really what the entire lockdown period should be used for. There are indications this is happening to some extent, but it really needs a massive national effort to give us a safe route out of the lockdown. If we do it in a half-assed away, there will simply be more avoidable deaths.

I agree but do social media and the BBC?

I think there's pressure and doing the right thing will probably be balanced against it. That may not be right but it may be what'll happen.

There's no accounting for social media, but the tabloids rather than the BBC have fueled the more rabid speculation, as usual. What's not clear to me is why there needs to be a change of messaging at all at this point. If they want to say somethng different, I'd be slightly more reassured if Johnson got on the podium this evening and used his pound shop Churchillian rhetoric to announce a massive programme of testing, tracing and isolation to free us from the evil shackles of this dreadful enemy, or something.

 

[mikew]

That link doesn't work for me but I presume it's relating to the multiple organ failures in children?

If so this has been reported in the UK already (I knew of it) and in the Lancet but came as a complete surprise to the presenter on radio 5 piece I heard talking to some American. I believe I'm right in saying that the number of affected children is low, I think I heard 12 in the UK, and that a link to c19 isn't certain as some affected children have tested negative for c19.

It may be c19 related or it may be something different. Maybe there's not enough information or cases to determine what it is yet.

I dont know if its the same as your talking about but i think this is the same story i linked to but a different source

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

I regard a lot of the statistics that are in circulation with a high degree of suspicion.

...and rightly so. While we always want the numbers we also need the context.

 

[woof woof]

I still can’t understand you, regardless of Greece’s politics (I think they have a centre-right govt at present?), the point is they are a western European democracy not noted for the population following rules blindly, who locked down early, it’s claimed because they knew their health service was inadequate. AFAIK they only did what the UK could have, and did do too late, done .

I don't know how much clearer I can be but I'll try.

I'm not a great lover of any political party. Labour was my spiritual home for a long time but now... no. So, I'm no lover of the cons but for me its not enough to heckle from the crowd and even if that's all we're doing I think it needs fleshing out.

People are complaining and alleging incompetence and lack of action but I do wonder what they'd think if what was being done in other countries was attempted here. I suggest that some screaming now would still be screaming or even more so.

And then there the question of what we'd personally do.

I'll be honest, I'd have acted sooner and it would have been very unpopular. Can you imagine the BBC running a headline story of people being stopped at airports and either put on flights back or bussed off to an RAF base somewhere for isolation? There'd have been a social media melt drown. Then there's the issue of the UK's capability to manufacture everything from medical kit through ppe and onto test kits. It's all been a perfect storm just waiting to happen.

We could have planned against it but the measures we'd have needed would have been descried as communism by some, a step on the way to right wing dictatorship by others and the costs would have been critisised at every step of the way. My own opinion is that the UK could have been better prepared but no one saw this coming and even if they had they didn't have the time to put into place things which have melted away over what? 50 years or more?

 

[woof woof]

Well, this is really what the entire lockdown period should be used for. There are indications this is happening to some extent, but it really needs a massive national effort to give us a safe route out of the lockdown. If we do it in a half-assed away, there will simply be more avoidable deaths.

There's no accounting for social media, but the tabloids rather than the BBC have fueled the more rabid speculation, as usual. What's not clear to me is why there needs to be a change of messaging at all at this point. If they want to say somethng different, I'd be slightly more reassured if Johnson got on the podium this evening and used his pound shop Churchillian rhetoric to announce a massive programme of testing, tracing and isolation to free us from the evil shackles of this dreadful enemy, or something.

I'm worried about testing as it's a snapshot. It'll be useful as a snapshot but on a personal level it doesn't help me if I'm clear at 14:00 as I can catch it at 14:10. I'm worried some will think "I haven't got it. Great. I'm off to McDonald's."

 

[cambsno]

Greece has 2700 total cases. UK has 215,000 total cases.
Therefore UK has 80 times the number of cases than Greece, but UK population is only 6.5 times that of Greece. I wonder what the explanation is for such a disparity.

I regard a lot of the statistics that are in circulation with a high degree of suspicion.

Simple. One factor is social mobility, more densely populated over here, plus the fact we get half of Europe travelling through London !!!

Comparing Greece to the Uk is quite simply stupid!!

 

[Retune]

I'm worried about testing as it's a snapshot. It'll be useful as a snapshot but on a personal level it doesn't help me if I'm clear at 14:00 as I can catch it at 14:10. I'm worried some will think "I haven't got it. Great. I'm off to McDonald's."

Also, you can't catch everyone. Even a huge testing programme will not have unlimited resources and will in most case be symptom led. You can test the people with coughs or a temperature or anosmia, and then trace their contacts and test them before they get symptoms, and isolate everyone who does not test negative. But you can't test those who may be presymptomatic but already infectious, if they have no known link to a case. This means that you'll still need a strong campaign to maintain social distancing, and there's a decent case for requiring non-medical masks to be worn.

 

[myotis]

Greece has 2700 total cases. UK has 215,000 total cases.
Therefore UK has 80 times the number of cases than Greece, but UK population is only 6.5 times that of Greece. I wonder what the explanation is for such a disparity.

I regard a lot of the statistics that are in circulation with a high degree of suspicion.

The obvious first question is, how much testing has Greece done?

Additionally, in terms of deaths, in some countries Covid-19 is only entered on the death certificate if the deceased had tested positive for Covid-19 (not sure if this is still the case).

In the UK, after the Coronavirus Act of 2020, if Covid-19 was suspected, Doctors were advised to write "Presumed COVID-19 disease" in Scotland, without the need for the patient to have been tested, and in England and Wales, again without testing Doctors were asked to put "Covid-19" on the death certificate without the qualifier required in Scotland.

https://www.themdu.com/guidance-and...ce/certifying-deaths-during-covid-19-outbreak

https://assets.publishing.service.g...l-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

The data we are seeing in the UK is from all deaths that "involve" Covid-19, ie mentioned somewhere on the death certificate, which may well account for some of the differences between countries.

This advice on filling in medical certificates also adds a bit of additional information relevant to my earlier post on why we might be seeing big differences in the mortality rates between countries https://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/the-virus-ppe.706383/post-8699957