The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Numbers are certainly a bit sketchy regarding the total numbers of deaths with or due to Coronavirus in and out of hospitals, but I think there must be a real risk where people could be dying due not seeking medical help for other non virus related issues.
Also how long can we continue without providing other hospital services. Within my circle of friends and family I know different people that have had cancellations for mammograms, kidney check (after one removed), heart scan , kidney dialysis, blood tests just to name a few. Apparently some people are getting hospital treatment for non related covid but I know a load of people that aren’t. This can’t continue much longer or the death toll for non related corona will rise substantially, that is if it hasn’t already.

I agree other treatments have to resume but this has been brought about by years of underfunding backdoor privatisation and fragmentation of what was once the National Health Service.
 
I wonder when we will find out if the best UK scientific advice was listened to.

I hope not because if this is the best scientific and medical advice we can get we are in serious trouble.
 
Can't hit the 100k testing target so what's the solution?

Setting a target of 200k tests by the end of this month. Good job Boris.

Oh but they did hit the 100,000 figure, well for one day with a little bit of creative accounting. (average number of retests was about 10,000 test a day that had to be retested to double check a negative result or an inconclusive first test but on that magic day there was a sudden surge in retesting to around 50,000 just one example of their creative accounting)
I predict that the 200,000 figure will be easily reached and probably surpassed but only for a day, I just looking forward to see what sort creativity they can come up with.
 
OK lets start again.

I review videos from YouTube, as well as other sources, for a living, and I tend to see the worst of them, so it probably makes me a little skeptical when someone uses YouTube as a source when trying to make a point. There are obviously some reliable sources on YouTube but you do have to be very circumspect when viewing to be able to filter out the chaff from the wheat.

My original post was mostly meant as tongue in cheek, but I do realise looking back at it it could be interpreted differently, and for that I apologise.
I acccept the point about there being a lot of misinformation on YT.
I like to think that I can, with a modicum of intelligence sort the dross from the truth.
 
Another “you couldn’t make this up” episode the “Turkish” PPE will be sent back:

”it has emerged that every one of the 400,000 protective gowns that eventually arrived has been impounded after being found not to conform to UK standards.

The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport. It is understood that they are due to be sent back and that the DHSC intends to seek a refund, as it has done in similar situations in the past”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards
 
A couple of friends who work in ICU seem to think the worst is over, over the past few days they have received a glut of ventialtors, which are now not needed as deperately as they were.
If this is true then it's good news for everyone concerned, better to have them idle than people suffering.
(Hospitals concerned are Torbay and Oxford)
 
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Another “you couldn’t make this up” episode the “Turkish” PPE will be sent back:

”it has emerged that every one of the 400,000 protective gowns that eventually arrived has been impounded after being found not to conform to UK standards.

The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport. It is understood that they are due to be sent back and that the DHSC intends to seek a refund, as it has done in similar situations in the past”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards
I'm always sceptical when a newspaper refers to "Sources" as it's source, it could be Bert on the sports desk for all we know who heard it from Karen on Facebook.

It's also not just a problem we are having with dodgy PPE
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...o-standard-reveals-health-chief-39104850.html
 
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I'm always sceptical when a newspaper refers to "Sources" as it's source, it could be Bert on the sports desk for all we know who heard it from Karen on Facebook.
”The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport”

I guess you missed that bit., so it hasn’t been distributed.

On the general point about “sources”, many people, including HMG, won’t speak on the record so you have to rely on the reliability of the publication which in this case is very high, being The Guardian. However, I wouldn’t have posted it here without checking and it‘s also on the BBC:

“But now the government has confirmed that all of the surgical gowns that were delivered were unusable because they did not meet the required criteria.

The news was first reported by the Daily Telegraph.”

.... and note that it originated with the Telegraph, no opponent of the current lot of duffers in charge of the country :).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

I can’t quote the DT since it’s paywalled.
 
”The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport”

I guess you missed that bit., so it hasn’t been distributed.

On the general point about “sources”, many people, including HMG, won’t speak on the record so you have to rely on the reliability of the publication which in this case is very high, being The Guardian. However, I wouldn’t have posted it here without checking and it‘s also on the BBC:

“But now the government has confirmed that all of the surgical gowns that were delivered were unusable because they did not meet the required criteria.

The news was first reported by the Daily Telegraph.”

.... and note that it originated with the Telegraph, no opponent of the current lot of duffers in charge of the country :).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364

I can’t quote the DT since it’s paywalled.

If it's not up to spec, then theres no wonder it's no been distributed, do you want our front line nurses and doctors being put at risk for the sake of dodgy PPE ?
As I posted we are not the only country suffering from this issue either
 
Available tests, not actually ones carried out!!

So Matt will buy 100k + envelopes and these will be ready and available, get the test kits later when they are available-probably when other countries no longer need them
 
Correction - what I was reporting has already been mentioned.:coat:
 
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Boris today:
"at this stage I don`t think that international comparisons and the data is yet there to draw the conclusions that we want"

Wonder what he wants the data to show?

View: https://BANNED/i/status/1258108619100499968


Watching the news and briefings is quite depressing and embarrassing. Firstly, of course, the deaths and then hearing how wrong the UK gov dealt/are dealing with the pandemic.

I wonder when we will find out if the best UK scientific advice was listened to.

I wonder if the best scientific advice was obtained as opposed to the scientific advice from the people with long term appointments to provide advice.
Perhaps UK scientific advice was the best. However, just to be sure, I would be interested to compare the advice to the government with what is seen to be best practice in the countries with the highest success rates in dealing with coronavirus.
 
I wonder if the best scientific advice was obtained as opposed to the scientific advice from the people with long term appointments to provide advice.
Perhaps UK scientific advice was the best. However, just to be sure, I would be interested to compare the advice to the government with what is seen to be best practice in the countries with the highest success rates in dealing with coronavirus.
Watching Jeremy Vine this morning, they interviewed someone who said, our scientific experts and advisors also talk to advisors and experts from other countries too.
 
I wonder if the best scientific advice was obtained as opposed to the scientific advice from the people with long term appointments to provide advice.

"When SAGE is called, it is the job of the Government Office for Science to bring together the necessary range of expertise to formulate advice to COBR. When time is short, this expertise normally comes from scientists in government departments, especially their own chief scientists. But when time permits, SAGE pulls in expertise from around the country including, in the case of something like COVID-19, epidemiologists, clinicians, virologists, behavioural scientists, systems scientists and engineers."

https://theconversation.com/coronav...he-science-advisory-group-really-works-134077

If you have the time you could check out the credentials of the people involved:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate
 
However, just to be sure, I would be interested to compare the advice to the government
I think it unlikely that we will be allowed to see that advice in full. This government is doing itself no favours by obfuscating instead of informing.
 
When time is short, this expertise normally comes from scientists in government departments, especially their own chief scientists.
It's the following two notes, included on the list of participants (https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...f-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups) which I think creates some distrust of the claims that the advice is objective and purely based on the available science...
These meetings are also regularly attended by officials from Her Majesty’s Government. These attendees have not been named.

Permission to publish names was requested from all participants. Those who did not give permission have not been named.
 
Another “you couldn’t make this up” episode the “Turkish” PPE will be sent back:

”it has emerged that every one of the 400,000 protective gowns that eventually arrived has been impounded after being found not to conform to UK standards.

The Department for Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday evening that the items were being held in a facility near Heathrow airport. It is understood that they are due to be sent back and that the DHSC intends to seek a refund, as it has done in similar situations in the past”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-flown-from-turkey-for-nhs-fail-uk-standards
Whilst unfortunate, PPE shipments are coming into the UK every day as well as being produced in the UK.
No mention of the Turkish PPE shipment that arrived at Brize Norton about a month ago, I guess that must have been ok.

Although some companies such as Dyson didn't get their ventilators signed off, it's good to see companies that have been manufacturing ventilators in the UKmeans have managed to produce more than we actually need. At least we'll have something to export.
 
An interesting (but disturbing) fact about the belated and essential contact tracing has emerged. . .

The government has announced that they are recruiting an initial 18,000 people to carry out this vital work, but in fact the true figure is just 3,000. The remaining 15,000 have been contracted out to the usual suspects, the large buddy companies to which the government contract out other major grunt work jobs.

And they're hiring people with zero background in this type of work, paying minimum pay and asking only for people who have experience with dealing with the public, i.e. call centre workers.

Other countries have given the job to civil servants, local authority workers etc and to other careful, methodical people such as librarians.

Given the track record of some of these companies, this is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
An interesting (but disturbing) fact about the belated and essential contact tracing has emerged. . .

The government has announced that they are recruiting an initial 18,000 people to carry out this vital work, but in fact the true figure is just 3,000. The remaining 15,000 have been contracted out to the usual suspects, the large buddy companies to which the government contract out other major grunt work jobs.

And they're hiring people with zero background in this type of work, paying minimum pay and asking only for people who have experience with dealing with the public, i.e. call centre workers.

Other countries have given the job to civil servants, local authority workers etc and to other careful, methodical people such as librarians.

Given the track record of some of these companies, this is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who are these large buddy companies who will be getting these jobs for the boys?
I can't see any mention of company names, in any of the media reports, just that they will likely be call centre staff and they will receive training.
 
I think it unlikely that we will be allowed to see that advice in full. This government is doing itself no favours by obfuscating instead of informing.

Yes, and failing to openly display the advice on which decisions are reached always creates a suspicion that such advice does not pass muster. Given that the UK Covid 19 casualty figures are not exactly all that wonderful, there is an escalating demand to have the decision processes laid open to scrutiny.
Governments of all shades, when under pressure, predictively fall into the trap of attempting to mask the truth. As a result, and equally predictively, pay a bigger price than they would if they had been free and honest from the outset.
 
If it's not up to spec, then theres no wonder it's no been distributed, do you want our front line nurses and doctors being put at risk for the sake of dodgy PPE ?
As I posted we are not the only country suffering from this issue either
But you were casting doubt on the “sources” ... :(.

”We are not the only country ... “, so that’s OK then?
 
Who are these large buddy companies who will be getting these jobs for the boys?
I can't see any mention of company names, in any of the media reports, just that they will likely be call centre staff and they will receive training.
Don't know. Apparently the recruitment is being done via agencies, but the best guess is that it will involve the Tory party donors who have had previous lucrative contracts for monitoring people with disabilities, for tagging offenders and running the vast majority of the probation services, all of which have been a disaster.
 
Don't know. Apparently the recruitment is being done via agencies, but the best guess is that it will involve the Tory party donors who have had previous lucrative contracts for monitoring people with disabilities, for tagging offenders and running the vast majority of the probation services, all of which have been a disaster.
So it could just as well all be b*****ks. At least you got the lemmings attention and liking more potential fake news.
 
It's the following two notes, included on the list of participants (https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...f-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups) which I think creates some distrust of the claims that the advice is objective and purely based on the available science...

Not for me, I have been part of, and led teams advising Government (not at the level of SAGE I hasten to add) and we would often have observers, who could even ask questions, but this had no effect on the advice we eventually gave. It is after all just advice, the government listens to the advice, puts it into the wider context of running the country, and applies it as they see fit.

Although no one can be 100% objective, scientists take a lot of pride in their science and their endeavours to be objective, so while this is no guarantee of anything, I'm not overly concerned about the objectivity of the advice or of it not being based on the available science.

However, the problem is that in any situation, the available science is still open to professional interpretation. There is rarely consensus amongst scientists because science, by its very nature, is full of uncertainty. And as the evidence changes, the individual beliefs of individual scientists will also change, but not necessarily in the same direction. They may well have come up with a strategy that brokered the least amount of disagreement, but it would also highlight the risks of that strategy along with the risks and benefits of alternative strategies. (at least that is what we used to do)

Different scientists will bring different views to the table, and it might well be that the Government has chosen to take advantage of the unavoidable uncertainties and follow the scientific opinions that best fit with other Government policies.

But that apart, I am more concerned about what the Government might mean when they say they are following the best scientific advice. A cynical view might go something like this:


Scientists: The best possible strategy, is strategy A

Government: We don't like strategy A, have you looked at our proposed strategy B

Scientists: Strategy B would be a disaster

Government: OK, What about our proposed strategy C

Scientists: Well, it would be a bit better than strategy B.

Government (to public): Following best scientific advice, we have abandoned strategy B and are following strategy C (strategy A meanwhile remains confidential)
 
It seems like there's a lot of tin foil hat crap going on with this app and contact tracing imo.
It just smacks of political whinge rather than genuine concern.

Who the hell would want the civil service or the council to do contract tracing, can't get them to empty ******* bins on time never mind do anything responsible.
 
I've just been looking at the number of cases v deaths per million. I was prompted by one article stating the UK death toll was over 48,000 and that is far higher than I've read anywhere else so I looked for other sources.

Googling and looking at the various charts most (well, actually all) seem to be stating a lower number of deaths for the UK and (per head of pop) behind, in no particular order, Spain, Italy, Belgium and a couple of smaller (tiny even) European states.

If that is a true picture I wonder why some in the media are screaming about the UK having the highest death rate in Europe/the world, depending on what you read.

I'd really like us to be doing the best in the world but sadly that doesn't seem to be the case on todays evidence. I do as always wish for high standards from our leaders and their detractors and I do pray "we" can learn lessons and do better next time as sadly I think there could well be a next time.

Right now though, more truth please, less sound bites, less deliberate fud spreading, less fake news and less misrepresentation (to avoid using the word "lying") from all please. I wont hold my breath.
 
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So it could just as well all be b*****ks. At least you got the lemmings attention and liking more potential fake news.
Or it could be entirely accurate. Here's my source, reproduced without their kind permission:) Crappy phone picture, sorry.
Untitled-1.jpg
 
I'd argue that it's not always exactly low wage... It would be for a main breadwinner, as they used to be called, supporting a family but that's not always the case.
Yes, and failing to openly display the advice on which decisions are reached always creates a suspicion that such advice does not pass muster. Given that the UK Covid 19 casualty figures are not exactly all that wonderful, there is an escalating demand to have the decision processes laid open to scrutiny.
Governments of all shades, when under pressure, predictively fall into the trap of attempting to mask the truth. As a result, and equally predictively, pay a bigger price than they would if they had been free and honest from the outset.

I think this is at least partly down to the blame culture we have.

If we didn't have this tendency to single people out and publicly tear them and maybe their families too apart maybe we could have a more open and honest system.

I'm convinced that the almost ritual public crucifixions we have lead not only the careful couching of words we're probably all heartily sick of but also fear, the closing of ranks and also sadly a temptation to act dishonesty.
 
I'd argue that it's not always exactly low wage... It would be for a main breadwinner, as they used to be called, supporting a family but that's not always the case.


I think this is at least partly down to the blame culture we have.

If we didn't have this tendency to single people out and publicly tear them and maybe their families too apart maybe we could have a more open and honest system.

I'm convinced that the almost ritual public crucifixions we have lead not only the careful couching of words we're probably all heartily sick of but also fear, the closing of ranks and also sadly a temptation to act dishonesty.

Spot on with that, Alan.
 
I'm just watching the ITN news at 13:30 and someone who's name I missed (a young woman) stated the UK has the worst c19 stats in.... I trailed off there.

Someone is wrong here. Either the tables I'm looking at on multiple web sites are wrong (and by quite a margin) and she's right or they're right and she's wrong. I do wonder wtf is going on here. OK, we're not world leaders in this by any means but multiple sites I've looked at now place us behind several other EC countries which they state have higher deaths per population unless all you're going to look at is the total bottom line regardless of population size and that imo has to be simplistic and wrong.

I do know that even deaths per million of population will also be simplistic as there are clearly other factors but for the meeja to focus just about exclusively on total numbers as they seem to be doing seems a bit lax to me and to me seems clearly worse than looking at a figure and taking into account population size.

So wtf is going on? Political agenda? Stupidity? I do wish the newsreader had questioned her about her statement. Where's the independent questioning journalism that should be valued so much?

I know my ocd is taking over here but WTF?
 
So it could just as well all be b*****ks. At least you got the lemmings attention and liking more potential fake news.
The Times, as well as other sources, have a report that Serco and possibly G4S will run the call centres to facilitate Contact Tracing. I've not included a link as its behind a paywall

Of course Serco was fined for fraud and false accounting last year, that's really going to inspire people to pass on private medical information.

https://www.publictechnology.net/ar...ud-after-probe-moj-electronic-tagging-scandal

Instead of insulting a member, actually a number of members, a quick two minute google search would have provided you with the answer.
 
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I'm convinced that the almost ritual public crucifixions we have lead not only the careful couching of words we're probably all heartily sick of but also fear, the closing of ranks and also sadly a temptation to act dishonesty.
I don't think I've witnessed an "almost ritual public crucifixion" in the almost 60 years I've been aware of British politics. I have seen far too many public and unnecessary political suicides. I can't recall the name of the 19th century American politician who advised his colleagues: "When you're caught with your hand in the cookie jar, don't pretend it's someone else's fault. That will only make it worse". It's good advice which politicians of every stripe should heed but far too seldom do. The denials and farcical excuses are what annoy a lot of people.
 
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So wtf is going on? Political agenda? Stupidity? I do wish the newsreader had questioned her about her statement. Where's the independent questioning journalism that should be valued so much?

I know my ocd is taking over here but WTF?

Its not ocd, its a realization that takes a bit of swallowing.
It is absolutely political agenda, dispassionate journalism in the MSM TV media is long gone.
Watch it for a laugh and nothing else.
 
I've just been looking at the number of cases v deaths per million. I was prompted by one article stating the UK death toll was over 48,000 and that is far higher than I've read anywhere else so I looked for other sources.

Googling and looking at the various charts most (well, actually all) seem to be stating a lower number of deaths for the UK and (per head of pop) behind, in no particular order, Spain, Italy, Belgium and a couple of smaller (tiny even) European states.

If that is a true picture I wonder why some in the media are screaming about the UK having the highest death rate in Europe/the world, depending on what you read.

I'd really like us to be doing the best in the world but sadly that doesn't seem to be the case on todays evidence. I do as always wish for high standards from our leaders and their detractors and I do pray "we" can learn lessons and do better next time as sadly I think there could well be a next time.

Right now though, more truth please, less sound bites, less deliberate fud spreading, less fake news and less misrepresentation (to avoid using the word "lying") from all please. I wont hold my breath.

This is something that bugs the hell out of me. My job involves data analysis and there are so many factors to consider. The other day someone was taking a pop at the US for having the most deaths, even though their population is more than Germany, Italy, UK etc... Deaths per million is more accurate but you also have to factor in many other things and it is not black and white. Italy are reported to be under counting and Belgium over counting also!

Lots of silly soundbites out there. A normally intelligent friend of mine posted a link to an Express article saying that deaths in Spain have increased since restrictions were lifted... but that would not have had an impact yet due to lag!!!
 
I don't think I've witnessed an "almost ritual public crucifixion" in the almost 60 years I've been aware of British politics. I have seen far too many public and unnecessary political suicides. I can't recall the name of the 19th century American politician who advised his colleagues: "When you're caught with your hand in the cookie jar, don't pretend it's someone else's fault. That will only make it worse". It's good advice which politicians of every stripe should heed but far too seldom do. The denials and farcical excuses are what annoy a lot of people.

What we have seen is people losing their jobs and reputations, being hounded by the media and social media and on occasions we've seen suicides too. I used a pit of poetic licence and lumped that as a crucifixion.
 
This is something that bugs the hell out of me. My job involves data analysis and there are so many factors to consider.
I held the title "Data Analyst" on several contracts. The one thing I noticed was how often customers wanted "the right answer" and not "the correct answer". If you really wanted to send them into a tizzy, though, you just gave them an accurate answer and stood well back... :naughty:
 
Its not ocd, its a realization that takes a bit of swallowing.
It is absolutely political agenda, dispassionate journalism in the MSM TV media is long gone.
Watch it for a laugh and nothing else.

The thing is that many people swallow this without question and repeat it as gospel. Questioning will get you labelled as... I don't know, not something nice.
 
What we have seen is people losing their jobs and reputations,
Perhaps you could give us some examples of where that was unfair? I can only think of one myself: David Kelly, who (allegedly) committed suicide after becoming the cheese in a sandwich with the BBC on one side and Tony Blair on the other. Neither piece of bread, in my opinion, behaved honourably.
 
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