The virus. PPE. Part 1

[woof woof]

Reports of testing for Trump etc quote 10 or 15 minutes for test sample taking to completion

I repeat, any count of tests have to based on numbers of results. Ideally it would be based on numbers communicated to the testee but that is obviously problematic, mail etc.

This new thing of ”Test Capacity“ is undefined as far as I know and seems pretty meaningless unless it referred to the potential number of tests actually taken and completed in hospitals & GP surgeries etc, which I’m fairly sure it doesn’t .

What happens for any world leader probably isn't going to happen for Joe Public.

The number of results view is problematic as you're going to have to test, analyse and possibly retest and the communication question is difficult too and no matter what path is taken there'll be some groups and individuals who will object and suggest something different if they suggest anything at all.

I agree with having a test capacity and I agree with having a target but I'm less in favor of cheering from the rooftops or turning into headless chickens if a days target figure is achieved or disagreed with or not. I don't know if people have actually lied. I suspect it's more likely they've rather sexed things up... or used some accounting technique. I'd be a little surprised if they've lied but not shocked. Such is the word we live in.

Going into this the UK just didn't have the ability to test large numbers quickly and that's a difficult start to get over. Doing things as quickly as possible may involve reallocating resources, so that's another issue to deal with and there's the allegations of turning into China and such. Next there's the blame game and I think we need to be very careful here. We could say that the Cons are to blame as they're the government and we were clearly not prepared for this and didn't get up to speed anywhere near quickly enough. That's a valid position. Boris (or anyone) could say "Hang on a minute, I've only been PM two bloody minutes and I've followed the best advice available to the letter. I can't work miracles you know" and there's the question of what state we'd be in if Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot were anywhere near this.

I do remember a famous case not so long ago in which a minion, not an mp, was identified, targeted by the media and driven to suicide and we need to remember this and other cases and guard against more. A practice of scapegoating and throwing people to the wolves isn't a pretty one and leads to closing ranks and even lying.

Like all of us, I just don't know. I suspect "we" could have done better but I've no idea who to blame. Maybe there is no one to blame and this is such a serious issue I'm not sure I want to find anyone to blame. All I do hope is that next time we've learned lessons and moved on positively.

 

[Retune]

Reports of testing for Trump etc quote 10 or 15 minutes for test sample taking to completion

That isn't the standard qRT-PCR test we are using. It might be a reference to an antibody test that can be used at home using a finger prick blood sample and read like a pregnancy test.. Of course you still have to distribute the tests and somehow count the results (e.g. if the user were to submit them via a phone app) if you want national statistics. There are various other molecular tests that may be faster than qPCR to run, but they still require an instrument to run them: e.g.:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20047357v1

But the real gain with something like this is that you can potentially have a small instrument that requires little training to use, so it can be deployed at the point of care rather than a specialised test centre.

 

[sphexx]

What happens for any world leader probably isn't going to happen for Joe Public.

You asked, I gave an answer .

I agree with having a test capacity and I agree with having a target

Re: targets, go and listen to the current “More or Less” podcast .

You “agree with having a test capacity”. There’s always a “capacity” so not sure what you mean . If you mean a target for a test capacity, can you define it?

 

[woof woof]

You asked, I gave an answer .
Re: targets, go and listen to the current “More or Less” podcast .

You “agree with having a test capacity”. There’s always a “capacity” so not sure what you mean . If you mean a target for a test capacity, can you define it?

IMO not one that was particularly helpful.

How can I define what the test capacity should be? My area was computing and product approval, nothing to do with pandemics but what is obvious is the UK didn't have the "capacity" no matter how you care to define it. I think that's in the category of stating the bleedin obvious. We didn't have the capacity to make the medical equipment "we" thought we needed, we didn't have the capacity to make the ppe or to make and carry out the testing and analysis and contact tracing.

What I'd like to see is a possible worst case scenario prepared for but that in itself is problematic because if we prepare for c19 like pandemics and something else comes along we may need a plan that's significantly different enough to matter.

The next thing is the cost of this which unfortunately does have to be considered. There would possibly need to be large stocks of equipment and supplies and large unused capacity in any possibly affected systems, like the NHS and the key manufacturers and suppliers and transport systems etc, and this would be expensive to both create and maintain and at some point it'd be very tempting to cut back.

 

[Retune]

What we really need is the sort of co-ordinated response that was lacking in the early days but now, finally, seems to the the target. At the start, testing capacity was insufficient, which was one of the reasons we had to give up on community testing and contact tracing. Later, we ramped up the number of tests and had capacity to burn, since we were only testing hospital patients. Then we included NHS staff and the pendulum swung the other way. The goal must be to build the infrastructure and capacity for widespread community testing and tracing so that cases and their contacts can be tested and isolated quickly. Anyone with even mild symptoms should be able to get a test quickly. Without this, and continued social distancing, it won't be safe to leave the lockdown.

 

[cambsno]

Are we back to the scenario in which the UK is a dictatorship?

All I want is an honest government that tries to do the right thing and admits when they get it wrong, remembering that hindsight is a wonderful thing none of us posses, and by "they" and "The Government" I include not just the elected politicians but also the scientists and other experts and modelers and analysers. It is IMO far too tempting and far to easy and far too simplistic just blaming "The Government" meaning the Conservative party government we have at the moment when the body of people we need to question and hold to account is very probably wider than that.

What I'd like from the media and the opposition to "government" and their actions is objectivity not bias and clear and concise and constructive questioning not just idiotic game playing soundbite fishing like "Do you agree that the shortage of ppe is a shameful failure of leadership?"

I know I'm asking too much.

I think 'we' are to blame for much of this. We put out politicians on a pedestal and do not tolerate the slightest mistake. When a politican changes their mind its called a U-turn and made to look like a weakness. We pick up on the slightest mistake, or word out of place and beat them with that repeatedly, no wonder they are vague at best most of the time. There seems to be no room for human error at all. We forget that ALL of us make mistakes, and if that mistake is an honest and genuine one we should move on from that. I do think there is a bit of catch 22 going on.

This will not go down well I am sure but politicians are underpaid! Yes, I know that 82k is a good salary compared to the average, with some good benefits too, but people actually running the country and ultimately deciding our futures are getting paid c.150k pa (cabinet ministers) IIRC. Not to say that paying more will get us better people but it could - people can earn far more in other roles, both public and private sectors so we could/shouldpay more to get better people? At least consider it!

 

[cambsno]

I wouldn't suggest or imply we should get behind the government unless in this case we include the non elected people the government are taking advice from. Even then we should question but there has to be quality in there too.

Yes, we should scritinise but I think there's the quality and relevance of that scrutiny to consider. Yes the government should be held to account but what if they've taken the best advice available and done all they could? That is at least an outside possibility. I also think that the opposition and scrutiny needs to be of an acceptable standard and I do think much of it falls short. Shouting "I object" and "You're wrong/lying/going too far/not far enough" every day just isn't enough IMO.

Another thing I've said before which is worth throwing in again...

I think public opinion or at least how it is expressed through social media and the media are too influential. Policy seems at times to change depending on what's trending or in the media today. I can see why but is it right? But if the government didn't follow social media we'd get the Big Brother allegations even more.

Its weird how they get slated for not following WHO advice early on, but now countries are going against WHO advice re: face masks!!! So whats its to be?

 

[woof woof]

Its weird how they get slated for not following WHO advice early on, but now countries are going against WHO advice re: face masks!!! So whats its to be?

Yeah but this is an issue on twitter and facebook now

There are organisations which seem to be almost above criticism, the WHO and UN maybe. We could arguably have better and more effective international organisation if we critisised them a bit more.

 

[nog]

I doubt the questions I asked will be answered by listening to that.

It's the obsessive part of me that wants to see questions asked clearly and answered clearly. I feel that a lot of the fud at the moment is because no one is clearly defining.

(My bold) From a politician at the daily briefing? Reckon we will be waiting a long time, I would assume they view the briefing later, maybe not, but surely they must think " Got away with not answering that"

 

[Retune]

Its weird how they get slated for not following WHO advice early on, but now countries are going against WHO advice re: face masks!!! So whats its to be?

WHO advice on masks in the community is quite equivocal:

https://www.who.int/publications-de...of-the-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)-outbreak

Above all, they think that medical masks should be prioritised for healthcare workers, but also acknowledge that there is some evidence that these masks can protect others from the wearer, and even the healthy from the infected in 'mass gatherings', but are concerned about the risks of incorrect use (like touching a contaminated mask) and instilling a false sense of security. They think the jury is out on 'nonmedical masks' in the community and encourage further research. If they are to be used in this way, the public need clear instructions.

 

[woof woof]

(My bold) From a politician at the daily briefing? Reckon we will be waiting a long time, I would assume they view the briefing later, maybe not, but surely they must think " Got away with not answering that"

Yup.

We need more nerds asking the right questions and answering them too. I can just imagine it.

 

[jakeblu]

Fed up with Sky News. They are in effect pushing the “Wuhan lab accident” hypothesis without any evidence. Of course “anything” is possible, maybe the virus came from outer space (like the bats?), you have to have some evidence ... and produce it to run these suggestions.

It’s mostly the Yanks who are pushing that line now, they’re desperately trying to save their political skin. I’m surprised sky news is following that line

 

[sphexx]

What we really need is the sort of co-ordinated response that was lacking in the early days but now, finally, seems to the the target. At the start, testing capacity was insufficient, which was one of the reasons we had to give up on community testing and contact tracing. Later, we ramped up the number of tests and had capacity to burn, since we were only testing hospital patients. Then we included NHS staff and the pendulum swung the other way. The goal must be to build the infrastructure and capacity for widespread community testing and tracing so that cases and their contacts can be tested and isolated quickly. Anyone with even mild symptoms should be able to get a test quickly. Without this, and continued social distancing, it won't be safe to leave the lockdown.

Well, yes, but the country has been hollowed out over the years in the manufacturing’s and other areas (eg forensics laboratories etc etc). Now Hancock is quietly removing the ordering of PPE Etc from hospitals and centralising using SERCO and others.

 

[woof woof]

It’s mostly the Yanks who are pushing that line now, they’re desperately trying to save their political skin. I’m surprised sky news is following that line

Part of it will be retaliatory muck throwing as the Chinese have (allegedly) been encouraging the idea that it was spread by Americans.

That too has been reported in the UK media.

Unless I imagined it.

 

[Retune]

It appears the present version of the NHS tracking app isn't actually viable: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/05/05/uk_coronavirus_app/

A bit more information here - seems to rely on delayed termination of background activity (Android only) and the horrible kludge of push notifications to encourage restarting the app:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uccess-of-nhs-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app

The obvious question is, do the advantages they see in centralising the data (which means they can't use Google and Apple's decentralised APIs for this) outweigh the almost certainly less effective detection and logging of contacts? The other question is, are Google and Apple, by enforcing a decentralised model for the most effective contact tracing, prioritising privacy over public health?

 

[sphexx]

I think 'we' are to blame for much of this. We put out politicians on a pedestal and do not tolerate the slightest mistake. When a politican changes their mind its called a U-turn and made to look like a weakness. We pick up on the slightest mistake, or word out of place and beat them with that repeatedly, no wonder they are vague at best most of the time. There seems to be no room for human error at all. We forget that ALL of us make mistakes, and if that mistake is an honest and genuine one we should move on from that. I do think there is a bit of catch 22 going on.

This will not go down well I am sure but politicians are underpaid! Yes, I know that 82k is a good salary compared to the average, with some good benefits too, but people actually running the country and ultimately deciding our futures are getting paid c.150k pa (cabinet ministers) IIRC. Not to say that paying more will get us better people but it could - people can earn far more in other roles, both public and private sectors so we could/shouldpay more to get better people? At least consider it!

(My bold) I agree, and not just politicians. There’s been a couple of months campaigning against ProF Neil Ferguson by climate change deniers and his ’transgression‘ happened a month ago (and it wasn’t he that travelled) but is conveniently published when the death rate should be the main news and is running in every BBC news bulletin (that I‘ve seen). Really just a salacious bit of gossip else why keep mentioned “his married lover”?

 

[sphexx]

It’s mostly the Yanks who are pushing that line now, they’re desperately trying to save their political skin. I’m surprised sky news is following that line

I am too, I thought Murdoch was no longer connected with them?

 

[sphexx]

Part of it will be retaliatory muck throwing as the Chinese have (allegedly) been encouraging the idea that it was spread by Americans.

That too has been reported in the UK media.

Unless I imagined it.

They are but Americans started it in this case .

 

[Retune]

Part of it will be retaliatory muck throwing as the Chinese have (allegedly) been encouraging the idea that it was spread by Americans.

That too has been reported in the UK media.

Unless I imagined it.

Though, in typical playground language, 'the US started it'. The silly conspiracy theory from China seems to have been a response to the original US allegations that the virus had come from a Chinese lab (which nobody in the serious western virology community thinks is likely, though it's one of those things that is impossible to disprove with current evidence).

Edit: What sphexx said!

 

[tarric]

But as the benchmark has always been how many tests per day that other countries were managing, it has never been established or even questioned whether it was number of people being tested per day or tests completed per day. As alot of test kits that were supplied were useless, it is only recently that they have had a supply of test kits that they could actually use, and more drive through sites have opened as a result, so of course there was a sudden surge in the number of people tested. As to the number of subsequent tests carried out falling, it still relies on people making themselves available for testing.

Are you sure your not a politician because you neither ask a question or answer the question just blame the public for not showing up.

 

[sphexx]

If only ...

“i.e. the same thing we did with MERS, SARS1, H1N1, FOXNEWS:
Contain the sickness, isolate it, let it die, and watch out for any signs of the disease coming back to contain it.”

... pinched from a Comment on El Reg .

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

Now Hancock is quietly removing the ordering of PPE Etc from hospitals and centralising using SERCO and others.

That appears to be a triumph of political obsession over good sense.

 

[jakeblu]

Part of it will be retaliatory muck throwing as the Chinese have (allegedly) been encouraging the idea that it was spread by Americans.

That too has been reported in the UK media.

Unless I imagined it.

No, you didn't imagine it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...us-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

 

[jakeblu]

I am too, I thought Murdoch was no longer connected with them?

As far as I know, he isn't. But, a paper in Australia, Sidney based Daily Telegraph owned by Murdoch was running an alleged exclusive claiming to have classified documentation that western governments were sure that the virus escaped the lab. But intelligence sources say all that supposedly classified information was in the public domain, probably YouTube Seriously though, later the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said they had seen nothing that indicated the virus came from the Wuhan lab.

 

[sphexx]

As far as I know, he isn't. But, a paper in Australia, Sidney based Daily Telegraph owned by Murdoch was running an alleged exclusive claiming to have classified documentation that western governments were sure that the virus escaped the lab. But intelligence sources say all that supposedly classified information was in the public domain, probably YouTube Seriously though, later the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said they had seen nothing that indicated the virus came from the Wuhan lab.

Yes, I get The Guardian round-upof the Guardian Australia edition and see the AU D Telegraph referred to frequently — confusing.

 

[nilagin]

Are you sure your not a politician because you neither ask a question or answer the question just blame the public for not showing up.

Watching the BBC briefing programme today, they were talking to a few different people before the briefing started, I don't believe they were politicians, certainly not Conservative if they were, but they mentioned testing and how the testing figures have grown and what is still holding them back. One point made was that although the number of drive through centres are growing, for some medical staff who work in the more remote areas it can mean a 2hrs or more drive to get tested. There was cases a few weeks ago of some people making the journey and being turned away for some reason. So perhaps some people just aren't bothering. Also mentioned in the programme is that there is a shortage of reagent fluid and it can take upto 5 days for the lab to carry out their work once the swabs are recieved.
So in answer to your question, no I am not a politician, I just manage to glean the information from the very limited viewing time I am willing to give this. I am now back to watching The Big Bang Theory.

 

[Peter10d]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52560005

Refering to this part of the above article -
The total number of people who have died in Scotland since the outbreak started is 3,752 higher than would normally be expected, based on the average of the last five years.

While the virus accounted for the vast majority of these so-called "excess deaths", there have also been hundreds of extra deaths linked to heart disease, strokes and dementia.

Scotland's current covid19 death total stands at 1703, yet there is 2000 'extra deaths' based on the 5 year average for this period. So are many of these 'extra deaths' due to people not seeking treatment for heart and stroke related symptoms. It is a worrying scenario that with hospital screening, test, treatments all stopped and add the fear of going to A&E, this could have a worse outcome than the virus itself.
Time to utilise the Nightingale Hospital I would suggest.

 

[sphexx]

Oh dear, twice in 7 days I find myself agreeing with a Owen Jones:

”When deciding today’s front pages, newspapers had a choice: do they hold the government to account over Britain facing the highest death toll in Europe, or do they take aim at a government scientist, who ignored his own advice to the public, and invited a partner to his home? As you might have seen, the Telegraph, Daily Mail, Metro and the Sun opted for the latter. In a healthy, functioning democracy, a genuinely free press would not have considered this a dilemma. Bad news, everyone, because that’s not the country we live in.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/06/headlines-neil-ferguson-coronavirus-death-rate

 

[ancient_mariner]

A bit more information here - seems to rely on delayed termination of background activity (Android only) and the horrible kludge of push notifications to encourage restarting the app:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uccess-of-nhs-coronavirus-contact-tracing-app

The obvious question is, do the advantages they see in centralising the data (which means they can't use Google and Apple's decentralised APIs for this) outweigh the almost certainly less effective detection and logging of contacts? The other question is, are Google and Apple, by enforcing a decentralised model for the most effective contact tracing, prioritising privacy over public health?

They were supposed 'to be talking' to google & apple about this. Bearing in mind that not all people in the UK normally carry mobiles I don't think it's a panacea as it might be for an Asian population.

 

[sphexx]

No, you didn't imagine it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...us-originated-in-us-gaining-traction-in-china

Well, it is possible that it originated in the US and was deliberately released in Wuhan to give plausible cover to it starting in China. That would make more sense than the other way round. The US has a dodgy history with playing fast and loose with experimental procedures as when they “tested” LSD on unknowing people.

I’m not suggesting this seriously!

 

[Retune]

They were supposed 'to be talking' to google & apple about this. Bearing in mind that not all people in the UK normally carry mobiles I don't think it's a panacea as it might be for an Asian population.

I think even in countries where this is working well, it's not just the app, but old-fashioned contact tracing. Germany is now doing a lot of this. Germany also tried talking to Apple (and Google?) about their app (which was meant to centralise data) and didn't get very far, so they are now using the decentralised API. It seems that national governments (except perhaps the US government) are pretty much powerless against the megacorporations in this situation. I don't know exactly how the app works in South Korea, but I think they may get positional data from the mobile phone network operators.

 

[tarric]

As to the number of subsequent tests carried out falling, it still relies on people making themselves available for testing.

People are trying to make themselves available but are unable to do so through the online booking system which has been plagued with a myriad of problems since it's launch

There was cases a few weeks ago of some people making the journey and being turned away for some reason.

That was because even though you have to book a test they had run out.

So perhaps some people just aren't bothering.

I don't think it's a case of not bothering at the beginning you had to go to a test centre and if you didn't drive or after a 12hr shift you were to tired to make 4hr round trip.



As the map shows in some areas of the country not exactly easy to get to also I believe there is a limited number of home test kits available each day.

Also mentioned in the programme is that there is a shortage of reagent fluid

That one I don't know but surely if it's a vital part of testing then the means to carry out the said number of test is unavailable.

it can take upto 5 days for the lab to carry out their work once the swabs are recieved.

Again not my area of expertise but got this from the government website "We aim to return test results within 48 hours of a swab being taken, or within 72 hours for a home test."

 

[tarric]

Refering to this part of the above article -
The total number of people who have died in Scotland since the outbreak started is 3,752 higher than would normally be expected, based on the average of the last five years.

While the virus accounted for the vast majority of these so-called "excess deaths", there have also been hundreds of extra deaths linked to heart disease, strokes and dementia.

Scotland's current covid19 death total stands at 1703, yet there is 2000 'extra deaths' based on the 5 year average for this period. So are many of these 'extra deaths' due to people not seeking treatment for heart and stroke related symptoms. It is a worrying scenario that with hospital screening, test, treatments all stopped and add the fear of going to A&E, this could have a worse outcome than the virus itself.
Time to utilise the Nightingale Hospital I would suggest.

The figure of 1703 is the number who have died with confirmed coronavirus, the number of deaths recorded as coronavirus in Scotland stood at 2795 as of the 3rd of May I believe that because these are deaths that happen out with hospital and the time taken to record the deaths that these numbers are updated on a weekly bases.
Just to give you an idea of the scale of deaths not being recorded as coronavirus. In England and Wales for the period up to 24th April there had been 38,481 deaths above the 5 year national average and at that time 22,602 had been recorded to have died in the whole country from coronavirus.

 

[sphexx]

Yes, without a doubt.
I listened to the Private Eye podcast on the situation yesterday, https://www.private-eye.co.uk/rss/itunes/page_94_ep52.mp3 and their doctor, Phil Hammond, made what I feel were a lot of very good points about the government decisions, lack of accountability and the anticipated added effect of deprivation, damage to the economy etc - well worth listening to IMO

Thanks, this is a good listen (first 30 mins with Phil Hammond), very sensible. I think it’s worth repeating the link for those who missed it:
https://www.private-eye.co.uk/rss/itunes/page_94_ep52.mp3

 

[Peter10d]

The figure of 1703 is the number who have died with confirmed coronavirus, the number of deaths recorded as coronavirus in Scotland stood at 2795 as of the 3rd of May I believe that because these are deaths that happen out with hospital and the time taken to record the deaths that these numbers are updated on a weekly bases.
Just to give you an idea of the scale of deaths not being recorded as coronavirus. In England and Wales for the period up to 24th April there had been 38,481 deaths above the 5 year national average and at that time 22,602 had been recorded to have died in the whole country from coronavirus.

Numbers are certainly a bit sketchy regarding the total numbers of deaths with or due to Coronavirus in and out of hospitals, but I think there must be a real risk where people could be dying due not seeking medical help for other non virus related issues.
Also how long can we continue without providing other hospital services. Within my circle of friends and family I know different people that have had cancellations for mammograms, kidney check (after one removed), heart scan , kidney dialysis, blood tests just to name a few. Apparently some people are getting hospital treatment for non related covid but I know a load of people that aren’t. This can’t continue much longer or the death toll for non related corona will rise substantially, that is if it hasn’t already.

 

[nog]

Boris today:
"at this stage I don`t think that international comparisons and the data is yet there to draw the conclusions that we want"

Wonder what he wants the data to show?

View: https://BANNED/i/status/1258108619100499968


Watching the news and briefings is quite depressing and embarrassing. Firstly, of course, the deaths and then hearing how wrong the UK gov dealt/are dealing with the pandemic.

I wonder when we will find out if the best UK scientific advice was listened to.

 

[Retune]

View: https://BANNED/d_spiegel/status/1258087627003179009

 

[jakeblu]

Numbers are certainly a bit sketchy regarding the total numbers of deaths with or due to Coronavirus in and out of hospitals, but I think there must be a real risk where people could be dying due not seeking medical help for other non virus related issues.
Also how long can we continue without providing other hospital services. Within my circle of friends and family I know different people that have had cancellations for mammograms, kidney check (after one removed), heart scan , kidney dialysis, blood tests just to name a few. Apparently some people are getting hospital treatment for non related covid but I know a load of people that aren’t. This can’t continue much longer or the death toll for non related corona will rise substantially, that is if it hasn’t already.

It’s starting to change, at least where I live. I had a call yesterday from the hospital arranging an appointment for retinal screening in two weeks. My last appointment was just before lockdown and it was cancelled. Whilst it’s important to have my eyes checked it’s not a matter of life or death, so hopefully people with more serious complications are starting to be seen.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

Can't hit the 100k testing target so what's the solution?

Setting a target of 200k tests by the end of this month. Good job Boris.

 

[boyfalldown]

I remember watching the mayor of Amity island who was so concerned about the ecconomy he said it was safe to go back into the water.

By one of those strange coincidences, when he was Mayor, I photographed a speech by BJ who used that as a positive example.