The virus. PPE. Part 1

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sphexx said:
Now this is surprising more or less what we expected of him :(. The Cabinet is waiting for their absent leader but it seems he was always absent:

“Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order protective gear were ignored and scientists’ warnings fell on deaf ears. Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives”

And it seems he doesn’t work weekends etc etc. (This a Times story, I think but in all the papers.)
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Here is the full Times article, disturbing reading.

38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster
 
Even worse will be the rushed exit strategy because of greed.
Talk of opening Garden Centres early next month, do we really need bedding plants?
Also talk of opening schools, kids won't bother with distancing, its not about education just childcare

If we exit lockdown too quickly and things go bad it will be sticking two fingers up at the NHS workers
This government have got a lot wrong so far, about time they did the right thing
 
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tijuana taxi said:
Even worse will be the rushed exit strategy because of greed.
Talk of opening Garden Centres early next month, do we really need bedding plants?
Also talk of opening schools, kids won't bother with distancing, its not about education just childcare

If we exit lockdown too quickly and things go bad it will be sticking two fingers up at the NHS workers
This government have got a lot wrong so far, about time they did the right thing
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I agree on not reopening schools, but can't see gardening centres being a problem. Ok they aren't essential, but social distancing would be no more of a problem than going to a supermarket.
 
tijuana taxi said:
Even worse will be the rushed exit strategy because of greed.
Talk of opening Garden Centres early next month, do we really need bedding plants?
Also talk of opening schools, kids won't bother with distancing, its not about education just childcare

If we exit lockdown too quickly and things go bad it will be sticking two fingers up at the NHS workers
This government have got a lot wrong so far, about time they did the right thing
Click to expand...

There is a lot of evidence that a long lockdown and an even greater depression could cause far more deaths in the long term. We are dealing with people’s mental health and someone on bbc yesterday claimed we could see up to 60,000 deaths from untreated or later diagnosed cancers and other factors. We have to manage the virus but can it wait for a vaccine. We need to get back to as close as normality as possible
 
cambsno said:
There is a lot of evidence that a long lockdown and an even greater depression could cause far more deaths in the long term.
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Could you provide some links to that evidence, please?
 
If we exit too fast we might as well go outside on a Thursday and stick two fingers up at the NHS
Those poor sods need a break, so get numbers down so they can have a much needed bit of respite

We have been in the current state of isolation for three weeks, the way some people are talking you would think its three years.
All this talk of money, not like all the years of austerity was a bundle of laughs, didn't even do any good.
 
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The main voice we keep hearing with regard to ending the lockdown is that of IDS
A person known for his charitable feelings and actions towards the needy and disabled.
Its all about money, austerity affected the poor, this is affecting the rich too hence the panic
 
tijuana taxi said:
The main voice we keep hearing with regard to ending the lockdown is that of IDS
A person known for his charitable feelings and actions towards the needy and disabled.
Its all about money, austerity affected the poor, this is affecting the rich too hence the panic
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:agree:
 
cambsno said:
Ask the CMO, he has said this a few times.
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In your first link there's a claim about what the CMO said: "For a start, as the chief medical officer noted when softer social distancing measures started to be introduced, the rules themselves may lead directly to avoidable deaths." but no evidence of what actually was said, when or where.

cambsno said:
There is evidence that a recession costs lives.
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The second link does give a direct quote which is: "From our analysis we estimate that the economic crisis was associated with over 260,000 excess cancer deaths in the OECD (34-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) alone, between 2008-2010,"

...but it was preceded by an editorial statement: "The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008 to 2010, according to a new study". So this report seems to be an exageration of an estimate without supporting evidence. (there may be more evidence in the rest of the report which is behind a pay wall that I do not wish to climb)

We really do not need to add to the misinfornation already swamping the world.
 
nilagin said:
Take your pick.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=ms-android-samsung-gj-rev1&source=android-home&sxsrf=ALeKk00Aqqdt53-TOMGBNgpU9UM2zyu1-w:1587285685858&source=hp&ei=tQ6cXtLzMqS5gweboIagAQ&q=evidence+that+a+long+lockdown+will+increase+mental+health&oq=evidence+that+a+long+lockdown+will+increase+mental+&gs_lcp=ChFtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1ocBABGAAyBQghEKABMgUIIRCgAToHCCMQ6gIQJzoHCC4Q6gIQJzoECCMQJzoFCAAQgwE6AggAOgUILhCDAToCCC46BggAEBYQHjoFCAAQzQI6CAghEBYQHRAeOgQIIRAVOgcIIRAKEKABULATWPySAmC6pgJoAXAAeACAAa8BiAHXMpIBBDEuNTCYAQCgAQGwAQ8&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp#ip=1
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I don't think any of those studies claim more people will die because of the lockdown than of virus itself, and many are related to the pandemic itself rather than the measures taken to combat it, ie lockdown. The fact that there's a disease thats killing thousands of people and is having an effect on most peoples anxiety levels is hardly surprising news.
 
cambsno said:
There is a lot of evidence that a long lockdown and an even greater depression could cause far more deaths in the long term. We are dealing with people’s mental health and someone on bbc yesterday claimed we could see up to 60,000 deaths from untreated or later diagnosed cancers and other factors. We have to manage the virus but can it wait for a vaccine. We need to get back to as close as normality as possible
Click to expand...
cambsno said:
Ask the CMO, he has said this a few times.

https://www.cityam.com/extending-the-lockdown-could-have-deadly-consequences/amp/

There is evidence that a recession costs lives.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...sed-500000-extra-cancer-death-according-to-l/
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AndrewFlannigan said:
In your first link there's a claim about what the CMO said: "For a start, as the chief medical officer noted when softer social distancing measures started to be introduced, the rules themselves may lead directly to avoidable deaths." but no evidence of what actually was said, when or where.

The second link does give a direct quote which is: "From our analysis we estimate that the economic crisis was associated with over 260,000 excess cancer deaths in the OECD (34-member Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) alone, between 2008-2010,"

...but it was preceded by an editorial statement: "The global financial crisis may have caused an additional 500,000 cancer deaths from 2008 to 2010, according to a new study". So this report seems to be an exageration of an estimate without supporting evidence. (there may be more evidence in the rest of the report which is behind a pay wall that I do not wish to climb)

We really do not need to add to the misinfornation already swamping the world.
Click to expand...

:agree::agree:
 
nilagin said:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200408102137.htm
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I'm not sure of the point of that link, I read it early from the google link you provided. One of its conclusion seems to be....

Published in Psychiatry Research, the study suggests adults living in locations more affected by COVID-19 reported negative life satisfaction only among adults with chronic medical issues but not for those without existing health issues.

...and thats a surprise because?
 
mex said:
Say what?

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1010769642651111
View: https://www.facebook.com/Tredegar999NHSbirthplace/videos/1010769642651111/
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Doesn't this need to be balanced against the millions of PPE that China is sending to the UK?

As I understand it we responded to a plea for help with PPE when China desperately needed some, and China is now sending PPE all around the world to countries like us who now desperately need it. Isn't this a global problem that needs global cooperation. We would be in far far worse state if China had decided to hang on to all it's PPE for a second peak of unpredictable size.
 
badlywornroy said:
Here is the full Times article, disturbing reading.

38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster
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As you say, it is very disturbing, though I’m not entirely surprised. The CSO/CMO don’t come out well either but the chief culprit is long term inaction compounded by Johnson’s laziness and concentration on his family affairs ;) and maybe also that the cabinet are all Nodding Donkeys so nobody else is there to step up and sound the alarm.

One snippet I found particularly tragic:
“The interesting thing for me is, I’ve worked with Singapore in 2003 and 2009 and basically they copied the UK pandemic preparedness plan. But the difference is they actually implemented it.”
 
myotis said:
I know what the Regulations say, but all laws come with guidance on how they should be interpreted and applied, which over time are changed through case law, or other means. And indeed the law itself may be amended.

Laws are deliberately written with some areas of flexibility as it is realised that they cannot anticipate every nuance of how they might be applied. They are therefore applied as a combination of the "letter of the law" and the guidance on how that letter should be applied (which can come from a range of sources).

The Government still seems to be making it clear that a "reasonable excuse" for being out of your house is "exercising" (Regulations) for around an hour (informal government guidance), and as a time period is not defined in the Regulations then this is the best guidance we have on this.

But as it's so blindingly obvious that "in general" there are likely to be greater risks of spreading the virus the longer we spend out and about, an hour seems a "reasonable" period of time for most people, but there will be exceptions to this, and I can see why they might not want to specify a time within the Regulations. But, I'm not sure I understand why it doesn't seem to be written down as formal guidance anywhere, at least not that I can find. Maybe the Government is just expecting the public to be sensible about it.

There will be people where their particular circumstances dictate that an hour is insufficient, and they should be allowed to use those circumstances as a "reasonable excuse" to be out for longer than an hour without the stigma of "breaking the law".
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I notice you still aren't able to separate opinions from the law.

Tell me, have you ever had more than 7 pints of beer in a week?
 
Dave1 said:
I notice you still aren't able to separate opinions from the law.

Tell me, have you ever had more than 7 pints of beer in a week?
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And you don't seem able to realise that you cannot separate a law from the guidance (opinions) on how that law should be interpreted and implemented.

Not sure of the relevance of the beer question, but I suspect many many years ago, I may well have drunk more than 7 pints of beer in a week on occasions.
 
sphexx said:
The CSO/CMO don’t come out well either[/I]
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This is the worrying part. To be fair to the government, they have to make decisions based on what the experts say. If the experts are making mistakes then they should take most of the criticism. It gives me no confidence though in the decisions they are now making.
 
cambsno said:
This is the worrying part. To be fair to the government, they have to make decisions based on what the experts say. If the experts are making mistakes then they should take most of the criticism. It gives me no confidence though in the decisions they are now making.
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There seems to have been cockup in the various scientific committees which resulted in advice that it was a serious matter not being passed up the chain. I imagine the CSO & CMO don’t just rely on what’s in their head at any one time But collate advice from others though there is ancient history (WW2, V1s etc) of advisers being stubborn on accepting evidence that conflicted with their prejudices.
 
ancient_mariner said:
If this is an accurate reflection of what happened then we should be seeing a lot of resignations at the least.
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It will never happen. They will come out of this, whatever the result, saying they did the best they could and the advisors got it wrong and then give a 10 min pitch on all the wonderful things they have done.

Jenrick (communities I think), Hancock and the business secretary have been absolutely useless and I don’t think have answered a questions properly yet! We really are led by idiots.
 
The blame game will go on for ages but a strange thing I read the other day was, back in September 2019 a B virus broke out before the A virus hit China and the rest is history as they say. Many folk around the world have made bad mistakes and sadly many many folk have died and will still die, at the end of the day they need to find the Host and try to make a vaccine to help.
 
myotis said:
Doesn't this need to be balanced against the millions of PPE that China is sending to the UK?

As I understand it we responded to a plea for help with PPE when China desperately needed some, and China is now sending PPE all around the world to countries like us who now desperately need it. Isn't this a global problem that needs global cooperation. We would be in far far worse state if China had decided to hang on to all it's PPE for a second peak of unpredictable size.
Click to expand...

If that was the case then surely Gove woould have said something along those lines rather than stiffle and refuse to?
 
mex said:
If that was the case then surely Gove woould have said something along those lines rather than stiffle and refuse to?
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Who knows why politicians say or don't say things. Maybe he just wanted to avoid a complex answer, maybe he just wanted to put his time on air to better use. Maybe...
 
myotis said:
Who knows why politicians say or don't say things. Maybe he just wanted to avoid a complex answer, maybe he just wanted to put his time on air to better use. Maybe...
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I think there are just 2 types of politician: those who have their eye on the next election and those who just want to do the right thing. Reports that the latter kind have been sighted are few and far between.
 
They may as well have called the lockdown off as nearly everyone seems to be ignoring it now,traffic has been non stop all day here so far.
A massive increase since yesterday when the sun wasn’t out.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
I am not personally making decisions that cause the deaths of people I am supposed to be protecting in order to make profits.

Or indeed, making any decisions where someone's death is profitable for me.

The same cannot be said of our Govt and Rees-Mogg and his ilk.
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Did I say you were personally making the decisions?
There isn't one of us that would want to be making those decisions.
I'm sure they would all be much happier hiding away behind a keyboard having a whinge instead.
 
donetello said:
They may as well have called the lockdown off as nearly everyone seems to be ignoring it now,traffic has been non stop all day here so far.
A massive increase since yesterday when the sun wasn’t out.
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Still very quiet here. Went to Tesco at midday and very few people on the road, certainly a lot less than during the week. Lots of people out for a walk, run or bike ride though. Tesco was quiet as well, 20 minutes to get in, compared to over an hour during the week.
 
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