The virus. PPE. Part 1

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For some people, that's way less than a mile.
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
I've been out in the car!

Doesn't qualify as naughty though, because it was to pick up essential medicine. Felt very strange as mine was the only car moving on most of the journey both there and back. :sulk:
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Me too. Not sure if I’ve broken the rules or not. They say essential home ’repairs’ are OK. Does grass mowing count?
Broken clutch cable on mower, took it about a mile to repair shop, opened tailgate, he unlocked his gates and removed mower while I stood back. We ”shouted“ at each other through the gates. Collection was the reverse obviously.

Of course I’ve broken HMG instruction to stay at home but that is for my benefit not others.
 
So it’s now ok to drive somewhere to walk the dog and take the kids and a picnic hamper,so if it’s only a five to ten minute drive they won’t possibly have an accident and cause needless pressure on the already stretched services,Police,Fire,Ambulance and Hospital.
Not so sure it’s a good move myself as people will no doubt have their own ideas as to what’s an acceptable distance.
 
JohnC6 said:
If anyone is interested Matt Hancock is now answering questions to the Select committee which is headed by..er..Jeremy Hunt. :)

It's on the Parliament Channel which for Sky is 504.
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I did watch some of this (it’s still ongoing) and I have say, that Matt Hancock really is a master of evading direct answers to questions. I know that all politicians would rather put their own slant on the replies given, but our current Health Secretary is a master of obfuscation.

I never thought I’d say this, as I can’t stand the man, but I think former Health Secretary Hunt would a more capable, competent choice to be running the Department of Health and Social Care. In a ideal world we’d have someone far, far more capable than either to be doing this vital job at this critical time.
 
myotis said:
Although, I don't find these statements contradictory, once you put them into the context of the consistent advice of restricting your exercise period to around an hour. I do find the following statement incompatible with everything I have heard from the government on how we should be restricting our allotted exercise time.

"Stopping to rest or to eat lunch while on a long walk."

How can you have a "long walk" that requires lunch, when restricted to being out for an hour.
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Theres no official stated limit to your walk or exercise though is there?
It's only been suggested...
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Theres no official stated limit to your walk or exercise though is there?
It's only been suggested...
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It depends on what you mean by official statements, Cabinet ministers have regularly said that a reasonable time to be away from home for exercise is an hour. How official does it need to be?
 
Uncle Fester said:
I did watch some of this (it’s still ongoing) and I have say, that Matt Hancock really is a master of evading direct answers to questions. I know that all politicians would rather put their own slant on the replies given, but our current Health Secretary is a master of obfuscation.

I never thought I’d say this, as I can’t stand the man, but I think former Health Secretary Hunt would a more capable, competent choice to be running the Department of Health and Social Care. In a ideal world we’d have someone far, far more capable than either to be doing this vital job at this critical time.
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I watch a lot of current affairs and I just get annoyed at,as you say the obfuscation..to use a boxing ter too..ducking and weaving.I'm not in to watching boxingh btw. A couple of phrases annoy me more than others.. 'The important thing is... and' I'm sorry if people feel..whatever. That is no apology. Rushi Sunak seems to be fairly straightforward but he's not done many interviews but I thought he came across well at one of the daily briefings.Strange to see them all at home, it's usually a semi-circle of those asking the questions an the Facetime (is it ?) makes their faces look elongated.

At present Rosie Cooper MP is giving him a hard time re slower cancer treatments and he's actually stuttering and obviously struggling and looks very uncomfortable with her line of questioning and I get the impression he isn't on top of that particular brief.
 
This is rather worrying:


"Britain may have to endure five or six waves of lockdown, with a total of 40,000 or more deaths, before the development of a coronavirus vaccine permits a return to normal life, a leading expert has told MPs.

Professor Anthony Costello of University College London said the UK had been "too slow" in a number of aspects of its response to the outbreak, leading it to have “probably the highest death rates in Europe”.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...aths-cases-vaccine-waves-latest-a9470256.html


I know we've discussed the matter of the slow response earlier, but still very worrying to see it laid out in such stark terms.

If Costello is right about the possibility of having several waves of virus peaking and lock downs, how will we cope economically and as a society?
 
Uncle Fester said:
If Costello is right about the possibility of having several waves of virus peaking and lock downs, how will we cope economically and as a society?
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The model that the Government used from the very beginning, shows cycles between relaxing measures, new peaks and reinstatement of measures, so presumably, they are already thinking about this.

The Chief Scientist has often said that if we manage to keep the deaths to below 20, 000 we will be doing extremely well (suggesting the most optimistic outcome), so maybe a prediction of 40,000, isn't that outrageous an estimate, horrifying as it is. I can't remember the range of possible deaths the original model provided. Which, will of course now be updated, but last I looked no updates were publicly available.

It's difficult to asses any predictions like Costello's without knowing something about the model used.

I am hoping that we will get some effective treatments, in advance of a vaccine, so at least to able to expedite recovery, rather than just keeping people alive until their own immune system deals with it. This should hopefully reduce the number of deaths, and give some better tools for managing things until a vaccine.
 
Uncle Fester said:
This is rather worrying:


"Britain may have to endure five or six waves of lockdown, with a total of 40,000 or more deaths, before the development of a coronavirus vaccine permits a return to normal life, a leading expert has told MPs.

Professor Anthony Costello of University College London said the UK had been "too slow" in a number of aspects of its response to the outbreak, leading it to have “probably the highest death rates in Europe”.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...aths-cases-vaccine-waves-latest-a9470256.html


I know we've discussed the matter of the slow response earlier, but still very worrying to see it laid out in such stark terms.

If Costello is right about the possibility of having several waves of virus peaking and lock downs, how will we cope economically and as a society?
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Worrying, indeed. That will cause all sorts of problems not least mental welfare issues as well as economic. A caller to Five Live a couple of days ago said she'd gone to her credit limit on 3 cards. My wife was told yesteerrday thsat families are out of food because they have no moiney as the universal credit system is overwhelmed. We'll lose many good SMEs. On Question Time last night a businessman, on the panel, urged Robert Buckland QC Sec of State for Justice, also on the panel, to get the government to back 100% the bank loans to SMEs. At present it's 80% and for the other 20% the banks are going through their laborious loans checks which is slowin g the funds down immensly. If this six weeks is correct we ain't..as they say..seen anything yet.

In my post yesterday I mentioned, in relation to this lockdown, the rise in domestic violence (this is worldwide too) and a 59% rise in antisocial behaviour compared to this time last year. We're ok and have a nice garden to sit it out in but this isn't so for the vast majority but unless one keeps on top of the news it's a case of 'out of sight, out of mind' I've listened to people oin the radio telling of their hardship and it's disturbing. Sixth richest country in the world too. If it can happen here goodness knows how poorer countries are coping.

There's been a surge in Russia now and tv footage showed a doctor trying to deliver PPE to a hospital and being arrested for contravening lockdown.
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/russia-doctor-who-called-protective-equipment-detained
 
donetello said:
So it’s now ok to drive somewhere to walk the dog and take the kids and a picnic hamper,so if it’s only a five to ten minute drive they won’t possibly have an accident and cause needless pressure on the already stretched services,Police,Fire,Ambulance and Hospital.
Not so sure it’s a good move myself as people will no doubt have their own ideas as to what’s an acceptable distance.
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But then going out on a family bike ride could cause an accident, DIY at home could do the same... we cannot live risk free, its about mitigating the risk.
 
Uncle Fester said:
I did watch some of this (it’s still ongoing) and I have say, that Matt Hancock really is a master of evading direct answers to questions. I know that all politicians would rather put their own slant on the replies given, but our current Health Secretary is a master of obfuscation.

I never thought I’d say this, as I can’t stand the man, but I think former Health Secretary Hunt would a more capable, competent choice to be running the Department of Health and Social Care. In a ideal world we’d have someone far, far more capable than either to be doing this vital job at this critical time.
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True - Hancock is a complete... cock!!! To be fair (and I despise the man) I thought Raab has conducted the briefings pretty well.
 
myotis said:
It depends on what you mean by official statements, Cabinet ministers have regularly said that a reasonable time to be away from home for exercise is an hour. How official does it need to be?
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For sensible people, what has been said is enough, but for the folks that want to take the pi$$, they'll say there's nothing stated in the official guidelines regarding time limits etc.
 
Uncle Fester said:
This is rather worrying:


"Britain may have to endure five or six waves of lockdown, with a total of 40,000 or more deaths, before the development of a coronavirus vaccine permits a return to normal life, a leading expert has told MPs.

Professor Anthony Costello of University College London said the UK had been "too slow" in a number of aspects of its response to the outbreak, leading it to have “probably the highest death rates in Europe”.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...aths-cases-vaccine-waves-latest-a9470256.html


I know we've discussed the matter of the slow response earlier, but still very worrying to see it laid out in such stark terms.

If Costello is right about the possibility of having several waves of virus peaking and lock downs, how will we cope economically and as a society?
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We wont cope, quite simply. I do hope that they are looking at ALL data and taking a look at the wider picture. No point having a lockdown to save x number of lives if the same number is lost as a result of mental illness, physical illness, recessions etc... We need to understand the overall death rates, for example deaths from other things are down as those people are dying from Corona - they will instead die of heart disease etc... I think the Naked Scientist (IIRC) on BBC was saying the same, and that a number of patients dying would have died in the short term anyway. The knock on effects are severe yet not often reported.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
For sensible people, what has been said is enough, but for the folks that want to take the pi$$, they'll say there's nothing stated in the official guidelines regarding time limits etc.
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More important that the odd person sitting as a family group for a sandwich somewhere quiet, 20m fom anywhere, is the amount of old people out and about. My in-laws have shut themselves at home and brother in law does their shopping, as they are in 70s/80s and health conditions. I see no end of old people, often couples(!), going shopping together and we know that 50% of 80+ yo will die and a large number of 70+ will too, not to mention people that age are more likely to have conditions. Appreciate that not everyone has family but people are rallying round - parish councils and local groups do shopping, prescription runs etc...
 
cambsno said:
True - Hancock is a complete... cock!!! To be fair (and I despise the man) I thought Raab has conducted the briefings pretty well.
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Interesting that! I have completely the opposite view of Raab’s performances :(. Eye of the beholder!
 
JohnC6 said:
A caller to Five Live a couple of days ago said she'd gone to her credit limit on 3 cards. My wife was told yesteerrday thsat families are out of food because they have no moiney as the universal credit system is overwhelmed.
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This is the point at which we need a government able to think clearly and look outside of their own obsessions. Using the government's own numbers it's possible to show that one way to stave off an economic disaster is to replace the welfare system with a universal basic income system, which is far simpler to administer and ensures that everyone has enough to survive on.

Working from the published figures...
  1. Tax take 2018: £594,300,000,000
  2. Less cost of welfare system: £253,000,000,000
  3. Remaining national income: £341,300,000,000
Now, if we have a national universal basic and remove all other tax discounts the numbers look like this...
  1. Tax take 2018: £594,300,000,000
  2. Additional tax no longer discounted: £152,785,000,00
  3. Cost of welfare system no longer spent: £253,000,000,000
  4. Less cost of UBI at £150 per week per voter: £358,800,000,000
  5. Remaining national income: £641,285,000,000
Clearly: these are very rough estimates but they do indicate that a universal basic income spreading wealth to every single voter and taxing every citizen and organisation equally is far cheaper than the current system which encourages divisiveness and selfishness.

If anyone can spot mistakes in these guesstimates I'd be grateful to see corrections.

Here are some sources for the numbers I used...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gove...rticles/howisthewelfarebudgetspent/2016-03-16
https://assets.publishing.service.g...nt_data/file/837766/191009_Bulletin_FINAL.pdf
 
cambsno said:
True - Hancock is a complete... cock!!! To be fair (and I despise the man) I thought Raab has conducted the briefings pretty well.
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As is so often the case, remakes are not a patch on the original. Give me the proper Hancock’s Half Hour anytime.*

I’ve no doubt the Tony Hancock would have made a better Health Secretary given the medical expertise he displayed in ‘The Blood Donor’.

And while we’re at it, I think Sid James would make a more credible Home Secretary than Pritti Patel.





*PS. I think it was @sphexx who originally mentioned Hancock’s Half Hour on this thread - so not an original idea on my part.
 
sphexx said:
Interesting that! I have completely the opposite view of Raab’s performances :(. Eye of the beholder!
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I thought his performance was finger licking bad!
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
For sensible people, what has been said is enough, but for the folks that want to take the pi$$, they'll say there's nothing stated in the official guidelines regarding time limits etc.
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You are probably right. It's a difficult balance between allowing a desirable amount of flexibility and giving rigid advice. It's not helped that the advice is different across, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. I have for example seen it written down in Scottish Government advice that you should not drive somewhere for exercise, which is very different to Matt Hancock's advice that a 5 minute drive to get somewhere for exercise is OK.
 
I dont think you can discount the cost of the welfare system to zero.
Care to share what the following line is and how it is calculated?
  1. Additional tax no longer discounted: £152,785,000,00
PS, you mention taxing everyone equally. I dont think that is a fair thing to do even with UBI. Indeed a possible approach to implementing UBI is via a negative tax rate for the lowest earners.
 
Rapscallion said:
I dont think you can discount the cost of the welfare system to zero.
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It's probable that you're right but this is a very crude calculation. I would expect any spending not replaced by UBI to be absorbed back into the NHS budget.
Rapscallion said:
Care to share what the following line is and how it is calculated?
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That's the total from the second link which is a detailed estimate by HMRC as to the cost of tax reliefs.
Rapscallion said:
PS, you mention taxing everyone equally. I dont think that is a fair thing to do even with UBI. Indeed a possible approach to implementing UBI is via a negative tax rate for the lowest earners.
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When I talk about taxing everyone equally I don't mean a single rate of tax. What I do mean is the abolition of all tax reliefs so that all income from whatever source is taxed at the appropriate rate. The point of the UBI is that it...
  1. gives every voter a guaranteed lifetime income
  2. replaces the vagaries of tax allowancies with a fixed amount
  3. removes the administration associated with welfare payments
  4. removes the administration associated with state pension payments
 
cambsno said:
But then going out on a family bike ride could cause an accident, DIY at home could do the same... we cannot live risk free, its about mitigating the risk.
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Yes quite possibly,but this won’t normally involve lots of Police,Fire and the Ambulance service being involved and the possibility of some of them being injured while removing 3 kids and two adults from a wrecked vehicle all for the sake of walking the dog and having a picnic,not to mention the occupants of any other vehicles involved.
 
Uncle Fester said:
As is so often the case, remakes are not a patch on the original. Give me the proper Hancock’s Half Hour anytime.*

I’ve no doubt the Tony Hancock would have made a better Health Secretary given the medical expertise he displayed in ‘The Blood Donor’.

And while we’re at it, I think Sid James would make a more credible Home Secretary than Pritti Patel.





*PS. I think it was @sphexx who originally mentioned Hancock’s Half Hour on this thread - so not an original idea on my part.
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Not guilty, I think, I wish it were true :). I think in real life Sid James was more like Boris :), and I do remember commenting on Sid James so that may be where you got the impression from.
 
I think this has been commented on before but.......

In Wuhan they were able to create an optimal lockdown of a scale and control that IMO would never be accepted/acceptable in a western liberal democracy.

But does that difference in practice & protocols explain why compared to China "we" in other countries have had oh so many more deaths??? Or is it that China was Indeed under reporting their figures and that had the effect of creating a poor planning environment in many other countries???
 
Box Brownie said:
I think this has been commented on before but.......

In Wuhan they were able to create an optimal lockdown of a scale and control that IMO would never be accepted/acceptable in a western liberal democracy.

But does that difference in practice & protocols explain why compared to China "we" in other countries have had oh so many more deaths??? Or is it that China was Indeed under reporting their figures and that had the effect of creating a poor planning environment in many other countries???
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I know this is not what you are saying but everyone seems to be making a big thing about China updating their figures (and their explanations are plausible I think) but it comes after U.K. has lad itted” to not counting care home deaths (again for plausible reasons) and I doubt USA figures even come close to accuracy given their diverse governmental systems (State vs Federal etc etc).
 
So new guidelines ave been released as to what is reasonable excuse to go out, I don't know who makes this stuff up, but wow how to make a situation worse, Greater Manchester police have said, don't drive to go for you exercise....... oh and if you work from home that means home not the park ! its getting dafter by the day this stuff.

From the BBC: Not confusing at all.

This information says that people are allowed to exercise outdoors - such as going for a run, cycle or walk - and can drive to an outdoor space where far more time is spent exercising than driving., However, this doesn't mean driving to the countryside or beauty spots away from home.
 
It's outrageous!

The govt. have been, and continue to be, ridiculously slow to recognise the seriousness of the high levels of stupidity amongst the general population. There was plenty of warning and loads of evidence.

Until they grab the bull by the horns and implement the policy of naming every individual, and precisely detailing what each individual may and may not do, the morons and f***wits will continue to find ways of "being confused."

:D
 
simon ess said:
It's outrageous!

The govt. have been, and continue to be, ridiculously slow to recognise the seriousness of the high levels of stupidity amongst the general population. There was plenty of warning and loads of evidence.

Until they grab the bull by the horns and implement the policy of naming every individual, and precisely detailing what each individual may and may not do, the morons and f***wits will continue to find ways of "being confused."

:D
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Sorry, I'm confused....what are you on about? :LOL:
 
simon ess said:
It's outrageous!

The govt. have been, and continue to be, ridiculously slow to recognise the seriousness of the high levels of stupidity amongst the general population. There was plenty of warning and loads of evidence.

Until they grab the bull by the horns and implement the policy of naming every individual, and precisely detailing what each individual may and may not do, the morons and f***wits will continue to find ways of "being confused."

:D
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the problem is plod has no idea what is illegal and what’s not, the guidance is not the law, and the law makers made the law different to the guidelines, for example guidance says one exercise a day, the law does not stipulate a number so legall y you can go out and exercise 10 times a day, it cannot have been that hard to come up with some rules and make them lawful.
 
Studio488commercial said:
it cannot have been that hard to come up with some rules and make them lawful.
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Coming up with some set of rules would be easy but getting any sort of agreement from those who could make it lawful (or not) would be anything but.
 
Studio488commercial said:
for example guidance says one exercise a day, the law does not stipulate a number so legall y you can go out and exercise 10 times a day, it cannot have been that hard to come up with some rules and make them lawful.
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It's illegal in Wales to exercise more than once a day.

As an aside, how is the law different from the guidelines. As far as I am aware all laws come with guidance on how they should be interpreted and applied, which evolves over time through case law as the interpretations and applications are challenged through the courts.
 
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“We do need to have comprehensive test, track and trace in place as soon as possible" said Matt Hancock. Today. When over 13000 people are already dead.

Only what the WHO have been saying since the start. Bit hard when you already have god knows how many infections!
 
KitsuneAndy said:
“We do need to have comprehensive test, track and trace in place as soon as possible" said Matt Hancock. Today. When over 13000 people are already dead.

Only what the WHO have been saying since the start. Bit hard when you already have god knows how many infections!
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And they've announced a taskforce to speed up a vaccine....
Why now and not weeks ago?
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
Yes, I just read that. There have to be several factories that can turn out something good enough while other factories ramp up production of the proper kit.

So why hasn't the government given them orders to do so?
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Govt. is only interested in big brands apparently that make good news copy. There was another article in the Guardian about a manufacturer (not a brand because they make for others like many of the biggest manufacturers do) begging the govt to let them supply but getting no answer.
 
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