The virus. PPE. Part 1

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

Wasn't it the case that when the model showed the potential for 250,000 deaths using herding that they changed their action plan?

Did they really need a model to know that if 60% of our population got it and there was a 1% mortality rate, 1% of millions of people is hundreds of thousands of people?

The science and maths didn't change, which is why the WHO were warning us from January.

 

[boyfalldown]

It might though because it was actually him that was ill.
We can only hope.

I really hope you're right

 

[ancient_mariner]

Are the calculations for the mortality rates comparable? Given that we are testing a lot of people, the denominator in the calculation will as a result be a lot higher for coronavirus vs Spanish flu.

There are a large number of individuals who have had the infection that have not been tested. The best data at the moment is that from south Korea showing roughly 2% (10,500 confirmed vs 217 deaths) but the PCR test will almost certainly have missed some infections.

 

[nilagin]

The science and maths didn't change, which is why the WHO were warning us from January.

16 days after telling the world there wasn't a problem, even though they had been told there was a problem the previous month.

 

[mex]

Do you think his "near death" experience will change how he Domonic Cummings thinks about anything?

 

[ancient_mariner]

You do know how to spell Dominic don't you?

 

[arclight]

Nigel, you have posted a quote allegedly from Bobsyeruncle, but it has been altered. It is not what Bobsyeruncle posted.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

16 days after telling the world there wasn't a problem, even though they had been told there was a problem the previous month.

Yes, because the available evidence changed.

The available evidence didn't change further to say it wasn't a problem anymore now, did it?

The one simple act of allowing Cheltenham Festival to go ahead more than likely spread it across the entire country.

This twitter thread shows a comparison between us, and Ireland. Who had a similarly ICU capability, but took the decision to cancel St Patricks Day while we went ahead with Cheltenham and a Stereophonics festival.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html

 

[ancient_mariner]

China now has a problem with returning individuals bringing the virus home: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52266235?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5e93ed4eeac8420673fda10f&China focuses on 'imported' cases&2020-04-13T07:59:08.792Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1fba3440-faff-45ec-bf43-808768508328&pinned_post_asset_id=5e93ed4eeac8420673fda10f&pinned_post_type=share

107 new infections apparently.

 

[Deleted member 49549]

There are a large number of individuals who have had the infection that have not been tested. The best data at the moment is that from south Korea showing roughly 2% (10,500 confirmed vs 217 deaths) but the PCR test will almost certainly have missed some infections.

My point being that the denominator will be a lot higher now vs 1918 given the testing we are now doing. How many are not being tested is not disputed but not relevant to the point / question.

 

[arclight]

Easy to say that with hindsight, but pandemics have happened long before easy and cheap travel.

With regard to your mention of effective birth control - this is just going to get worse as the planet keeps populating and people live longer especially in the developing world. Isn't the population due to hit 10bn in 80 years up from 7bn now? If you think of it, maybe this is natures way of trying to do something to halt the human growth

I have always maintained that if man does not sort out planet over population then nature will.

 

[nilagin]

Yes, because the available evidence changed.

How is it that Taiwan had the evidence in December 2019 and made it known? Yet the WHO stated there was no evidence on January 14th 2020, then changed there mind 16 days later.
Just imagine how many thousands of lives that could have been saved, had the WHO done their job properly in the first place.
As you say the maths and the science hasn't changed, yet it took The WHO until 12 March to announce a pandemic.
You keep saying Boris and his cabinet should be held accountable for their delays.
It's fairly obvious the delay lies with The WHO, yet you aren't going to believe that, as then you can't accuse our government of not following WHO guidelines and all your arguments fall flat.

 

[Tringa]

A long(ish) but interesting timeline - https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/...ts-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/

Dave

 

[sphexx]

Well for a start a huge security risk being the other half of a prime minister, and with his child too. Possibly easier for security services.

That is a fair point but wasn’t made in the announcement and if it’s made now it will look like an excuse thought up later ... like so much else!

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

That is a fair point but wasn’t made in the announcement and if it’s made now it will look like an excuse thought up later ... like so much else!

It's not as if they sneaked off there and didn't tell anyone, so what's the problem?

 

[jakeblu]

16 days after telling the world there wasn't a problem, even though they had been told there was a problem the previous month.

Thats not the first time you've posted that, care to share your source?

This is the WHO's timeline regarding action it has taken

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

 

[sphexx]

How is it that Taiwan had the evidence in December 2019 and made it known? Yet the WHO stated there was no evidence on January 14th 2020, then changed there mind 16 days later.
Just imagine how many thousands of lives that could have been saved, had the WHO done their job properly in the first place.
As you say the maths and the science hasn't changed, yet it took The WHO until 12 March to announce a pandemic.
You keep saying Boris and his cabinet should be held accountable for their delays.
It's fairly obvious the delay lies with The WHO, yet you aren't going to believe that, as then you can't accuse our government of not following WHO guidelines and all your arguments fall flat.

For a start, AFAIK, PDRC blocks Taiwan from being a member of WHO, nobody makes much of a fuss about that but it’s symbolic of PDRC attitude. I guess WHO cannot take cognisance of anything Taiwan says because ... .

 

[arclight]

Public Health England report smokers with Covid 19 are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...k-of-severe-respiratory-disease-from-covid-19

 

[sphexx]

It's not as if they sneaked off there and didn't tell anyone, so what's the problem?

Because it looks like they broke the rules, I think that’s obvious.

 

[jakeblu]

Dare he sack him, I wonder. Dr Fauci has become the trusted and reliable face of the medical response to the coronavirus in the US.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52264860.

 

[mex]

So do you think he's having us on too?

Johnson has made a career out of creating fictitious nonsense, publishing propaganda and outright lying. If he was someone you knew in the pub or was somehow in your social circle, you wouldn’t take his word for anything and dismiss him as a fantasist or a Walter Mitty. This is a problem when serious things happen – can you ever believe a pathological liar?.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Because it looks like they broke the rules, I think that’s obvious.

Well I'm sure if that was the case the press would be up in arms about it.
I've not read anything suggesting they did/may have broken the rules apart from on here.

 

[jakeblu]

.......As you say the maths and the science hasn't changed, yet it took The WHO until 12 March to announce a pandemic.......

You do understand what a Pandemic is, don't you?

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Johnson has made a career out of creating fictitious nonsense, publishing propaganda and outright lying. If he was someone you knew in the pub or was somehow in your social circle, you wouldn’t take his word for anything and dismiss him as a fantasist or a Walter Mitty. This is a problem when serious things happen – can you ever believe a pathological liar?.

So the doctors and nurses would all need to be involved in any lies/scam.
Don't think that would happen. For a start there's plenty that would be jumping up and down saying he's faking it....

 

[Deleted member 49549]

You do understand what a Pandemic is, don't you?

Probably not given his posts. I’m guessing he thinks that a pandemic should have been announced when it was just taking place in China...

 

[mex]

So the doctors and nurses would all need to be involved in any lies/scam.
Don't think that would happen. For a start there's plenty that would be jumping up and down saying he's faking it....

Call me a cynic, but he and his mates have form for not being honest.

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

Because it looks like they broke the rules, I think that’s obvious.

This is where the real problem with controlling the contagion will emerge. When a government tells its citizens to behave in an unnatural manner then every single member of that government must be seen to comply. Each time a member of the hierarchy is seen to break the rules they are (in effect) giving all other citizens permission to also break the rules. Where the leadership of a government is in the hands of people widely perceived to be untrustworthy this is a recipe for disaster.

 

[nilagin]

Thats not the first time you've posted that, care to share your source?

This is the WHO's timeline regarding action it has taken

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

Odd for them to not include their own tweet in their timeline. Anyone would think they were trying to hide something.
View: https://BANNED/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20

 

[nilagin]

You do understand what a Pandemic is, don't you?

Yes and if WHO had done their job properly it would have been announced sooner.

 

[jakeblu]

Odd for them to not include their own tweet in their timeline. Anyone would think they were trying to hide something.
View: https://BANNED/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20

And thats the WHO's fault because, they're simply reporting what China had told them. They did hold this briefing though on the same day of the tweet




https://www.reuters.com/article/chi...pread-its-warning-all-hospitals-idUSL8N29F48F

 

[jakeblu]

Yes and if WHO had done their job properly it would have been announced sooner.

You can't actually declare a Pandemic until it becomes a Pandemic!

 

[nilagin]

Where the leadership of a government is in the hands of people widely perceived to be untrustworthy this is a recipe for disaster.

Widely by the minority.
Get over it.

 

[nilagin]

You can't actually announce a Pandemic until it becomes a Pandemic!

There isn't an exact number of people that have to be infected. Even the media were expecting the announcement as it was so obvious. It's not like it was suddenly going to stop spreading.
But it's ok, WHO isn't a Tory government, so we won't find fault in them.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Call me a cynic, but he and his mates have form for not being honest.

Yeah, I get that, but the Doctors and nurses?

 

[nilagin]

Yeah, I get that, but the Doctors and nurses?

Part of the conspiracy obviously.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

There isn't an exact number of people that have to be infected. Even the media were expecting the announcement as it was so obvious. It's not like it was suddenly going to stop spreading.
But it's ok, WHO isn't a Tory government, so we won't find fault in them.

For it to be a pandemic it has to be "prevalent across an entire country or the world"

There's no politics in it, it couldn't be declared a pandemic until it met the definition for a pandemic.

 

[jakeblu]

There isn't an exact number of people that have to be infected. Even the media were expecting the announcement as it was so obvious. It's not like it was suddenly going to stop spreading.

But it's ok, WHO isn't a Tory government, so we won't find fault in them.

You're just being childish now.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

Widely by the minority.
Get over it.

What minority? the majority didn't vote Tory. Just over a quarter of the electorate voted for them.

And even some Tories don't trust Boris. Him being a liar isn't really up for debate, it's been proven numerous times.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

Countries that followed WHO advice: Hardly any deaths

Countries that didn't: Loads of deaths.

Conclusion: The WHO should have done a better job.

I sense a little bit of failure of logic.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

This is where the real problem with controlling the contagion will emerge. When a government tells its citizens to behave in an unnatural manner then every single member of that government must be seen to comply. Each time a member of the hierarchy is seen to break the rules they are (in effect) giving all other citizens permission to also break the rules. Where the leadership of a government is in the hands of people widely perceived to be untrustworthy this is a recipe for disaster.

Has he been seen to be breaking the rules?
He's the prime minister for f***s sake and he's recuperating from a serious virus. He's been upfront about where he's going and I don't think the majority of the public would see him as breaking the rules.