The virus. PPE. Part 1

[arclight]

This makes an interesting read.NSFBL

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/news...ht-on-coronavirus/ar-BB12wnFp?ocid=spartanntp

In principle I agree with Professor Ashton, but the problem did not just start a few months ago. The basic error was made decades ago when mass foreign travel should have been seen as carrying a risk of mass transport of disease. (There were further warnings with other viruses several years ago.) That was the time (not to limit travel) to have the country prepared to deal with a pandemic or other dangerous outbreak.
In the same vein the need for the British Isles to always have all our vital industries and services at home so that emergencies could be handled without scrabbling all over the world to see what could be found (and purchased at grossly inflated prices).
This is an island. We should have been able to close down all but a few entry points and check for disease carriers at the others.
One other thing (a hobby horse). We need effective birth control to reduce the size of the population. Viruses do not travel well when there is adequate space between people ............ which is why we are trying to control the bloody thing with lockdown and social isolation.

 

[ancient_mariner]

We have some closer to home. Daniel Hannan in February tweeted "The coronavirus isn't going to kill you. It really isn't" with a link to his article headlined "Daniel Hannan: Alarmism, doom-mongering, panic – and the coronavirus. We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe. "

He deleted the tweet in March, i wonder why....

Some quotes from his article:

...There is a similar bias, albeit a less pronounced one, among the various medical advisory bodies: epidemics are what they exist for, and they wouldn’t be human if they didn’t have a subliminal desire to talk them up.

...companies that manufacture ’flu vaccines have every reason to exaggerate the danger.

How does the coronavirus compare with the two previous scares? Its symptoms, generally, are those of a heavy cold

But I’m going to stick my neck out here. You’re unlikely to be killed by the coronavirus. Yes, the disease is unpleasant; and, yes, in some circumstances, it can cause complications that lead to fatalities. But it is unlikely to be as lethal as the more common forms of influenza that we take for granted, let alone as lethal as, say, stroke or heart disease.

While he was plainly a bit of a t*** posting that, regarding the comment "We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe" IIRC the mortality rate was 10% for Spanish flu. Our present 10,000 dead might well be 100,000. Worth thinking about - and being grateful this isn't as bad as that.

 

[JohnC6]

Andrew Marr interviewed Alok Sharma, Sec of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy this morning. It's about a 10-15 minute interview. Andrew Marr had to ask him the same question three times on a couple of occasions because Sharma was just stonewalling and as polticians say when they don't want to answer a tricky question.."The important thing is..and then go off on another track. I felt quite angry listening to him. He does it with the very first question about the UK heading for the worst numbers in Europe. Marr asks him again and he stutters. That starts at 37.47 after the Lisa Nandy interview but if you want to hear what Sir Jeremy Farrar,Director of the Wellcome Trust and member of the SAGE committee advising the government re COVID-19 has to say then maybe watch that first at 17.16 on the time curser (after the weather forecast)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hbpp/the-andrew-marr-show-12042020

 

[JohnC6]

News just coming in..Half of A&E staff at the Royal Gwent Hospital,S.Wales have COVID-19

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...in-wales-have-covid-19-reveals-medic-11972384

 

[sphexx]

For sure a very interesting and IMO a well balanced summary and appraisal of the timeline and opportunities missed or oddly poor action(s) taken.

As he says at the end of the piece there will be an enquiry (I hope so because we for sure need to understand what could have been done better) but I surmise no heads will roll.............................but sincerely hope that there will be appropriate contingency plans put in place as required to mitigate for any future such infections.

As the human population grows the risk as a decimating pandemic will possibly increase, as afteral we are in effect our own mono-culture and a mono-culture when packed together is prone to "natural selection events" like a pandemic.

When will we as nation and indeed a global 'nation' heed and act on the messages of history :banghead:

There’ll be an inquiry, look to Grenfell how it will go. They’ll break it down in instalments, first they‘ll look at the fire service NHS and look for things they did wrong during an emergency, mistakes will have been made sonNHS will be castigated and the Press will call for resignations, then much later they’ll look at Government and find reasons why they did as best they could under the circumstances but by then some other thing will be in the news and everyone will have forgotten .

 

[tarric]

Andrew Marr interviewed Alok Sharma, Sec of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy this morning. It's about a 10-15 minute interview. Andrew Marr had to ask him the same question three times on a couple of occasions because Sharma was just stonewalling and as polticians say when they don't want to answer a tricky question.."The important thing is..and then go off on another track. I felt quite angry listening to him. He does it with the very first question about the UK heading for the worst numbers in Europe. Marr asks him again and he stutters. That starts at 37.47 after the Lisa Nandy interview but if you want to hear what Sir Jeremy Farrar,Director of the Wellcome Trust and member of the SAGE committee advising the government re COVID-19 has to say then maybe watch that first at 17.16 on the time curser (after the weather forecast)

Watched it as well, well for about 5 minutes then switched it over, if they are not prepared to answer question why do they bother even going on. I have often thought that the interviewers should just ask the question and when they don't answer ask a second time and if they still refuse to answer just tell them to f*****f and move on to the next segment.

 

[sphexx]

In principle I agree with Professor Ashton, but the problem did not just start a few months ago. The basic error was made decades ago when mass foreign travel should have been seen as carrying a risk of mass transport of disease. (There were further warnings with other viruses several years ago.) That was the time (not to limit travel) to have the country prepared to deal with a pandemic or other dangerous outbreak.
In the same vein the need for the British Isles to always have all our vital industries and services at home so that emergencies could be handled without scrabbling all over the world to see what could be found (and purchased at grossly inflated prices).
This is an island. We should have been able to close down all but a few entry points and check for disease carriers at the others.
One other thing (a hobby horse). We need effective birth control to reduce the size of the population. Viruses do not travel well when there is adequate space between people ............ which is why we are trying to control the bloody thing with lockdown and social isolation.

I agree with most of that (though you leave out business travel) but you’re a bit off the mark with birth control (though I agree the world has too many people ) because I don’t see how that it going to increase the space between people unless maybe you get back to the population size before the industrial revolution which was about 10 million I think.

 

[sphexx]

While he was plainly a bit of a t*** posting that, regarding the comment "We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe" IIRC the mortality rate was 10% for Spanish flu. Our present 10,000 dead might well be 100,000. Worth thinking about - and being grateful this isn't as bad as that.

True, but Hannan had no basis for that prediction and it *could* have turned out to be like 1918, probably won’t but we’re not out of the wood yet.

 

[arclight]

Accurate assessment, but perhaps somewhat gentle.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world...ies-will-get-a-grade-for-coronavirus-response

 

[cambsno]

Boris sounds remarkably well. No breathlessness, no residual cough ( I still have a lingering cough a month on).

And he never coughed once in the televised pieces he did on the run-up to him being hospitalised either.

Wouldn't surprise me to find out that he never actually had it.

Just seen his video from today - not to shabby for someone who only came out of ICU 3 days ago!!! First thing that I couldn't understand is why wear a suit - if you were feeling ill wouldn't you just be in jogging bottoms or something? Came across quite strong and well. No doubting he probably had it, but nowhere near as badly as is being made out perhaps?

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Just seen his video from today - not to shabby for someone who only came out of ICU 3 days ago!!! First thing that I couldn't understand is why wear a suit - if you were feeling ill wouldn't you just be in jogging bottoms or something? Came across quite strong and well. No doubting he probably had it, but nowhere near as badly as is being made out perhaps?

Do you seriously think the prime minister is going to appear on TV wearing jogging bottoms?
Clutching at straws springs to mind....

 

[cambsno]

In principle I agree with Professor Ashton, but the problem did not just start a few months ago. The basic error was made decades ago when mass foreign travel should have been seen as carrying a risk of mass transport of disease. (There were further warnings with other viruses several years ago.) That was the time (not to limit travel) to have the country prepared to deal with a pandemic or other dangerous outbreak.
In the same vein the need for the British Isles to always have all our vital industries and services at home so that emergencies could be handled without scrabbling all over the world to see what could be found (and purchased at grossly inflated prices).
This is an island. We should have been able to close down all but a few entry points and check for disease carriers at the others.
One other thing (a hobby horse). We need effective birth control to reduce the size of the population. Viruses do not travel well when there is adequate space between people ............ which is why we are trying to control the bloody thing with lockdown and social isolation.

Easy to say that with hindsight, but pandemics have happened long before easy and cheap travel.

With regard to your mention of effective birth control - this is just going to get worse as the planet keeps populating and people live longer especially in the developing world. Isn't the population due to hit 10bn in 80 years up from 7bn now? If you think of it, maybe this is natures way of trying to do something to halt the human growth

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

If you think of it, maybe this is natures way of trying to do something to halt the human growth

Could be. That's what I've been thinking.

 

[cambsno]

I wouldn't put it past Boris to lie about anything if it would help his career.

If he didn't lie nearly every time he opened his mouth, then it wouldn't have crossed my mind.

Just as well for him he got Corona when he did... if that had happened next year his nurse Luis from Portugal would not have been allowed to work here would he?

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Just as well for him he got Corona when he did... if that had happened next year his nurse Luis from Portugal would not have been allowed to work here would he?

Do you think his "near death" experience will change how he thinks about anything?

 

[Box Brownie]

With regard to your mention of effective birth control - this is just going to get worse as the planet keeps populating and people live longer especially in the developing world. Isn't the population due to hit 10bn in 80 years up from 7bn now? If you think of it, maybe this is natures way of trying to do something to halt the human growth

Could be. That's what I've been thinking.

I said as much in my post
https://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/the-virus-ppe.706383/page-143#post-8677147

 

[joxby]

I must have missed this perfectly healthy Boris vid
The one I've seen he looks a bit rough, his voice is a bit weak, well...not weak exactly but definitely lacking his usual force and energy, he's huffing and puffing a bit and sounds capable of an extremely productive cough.
Listening to him, I reckon I could do a good 20 minutes over the sink with that chest....

Corona or not, its a tough call on who's sicker, Boris or the radical left.

 

[Donnie]

..... and sounds capable of an extremely productive cough.

Which is not a symptom of covid 19

 

[sphexx]

So Johnson’s GF has relocated to Chequers ... wait, ... relocated, oh, that’s OK then, I thought for a moment she’d travelled to a second home, breaking the regulations .

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Which is not a symptom of covid 19

So do you think he's having us on too?

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

So Johnson’s GF has relocated to Chequers ... wait, ... relocated, oh, that’s OK then, I thought for a moment she’d travelled to a second home, breaking the regulations .

If Boris went to chequers to recuperate, they're hardly going to leave his pregnant partner in Downing St on her own.

 

[MatBin]

While he was plainly a bit of a t*** posting that, regarding the comment "We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe" IIRC the mortality rate was 10% for Spanish flu. Our present 10,000 dead might well be 100,000. Worth thinking about - and being grateful this isn't as bad as that.

According to figures released we have/had roughly 84,000 positive Tests and roughly 10,000 in hospital deaths, that's worse than 10%.

 

[MatBin]

Do you think his "near death" experience will change how he thinks about anything?

One can but hope, but I didn't see Cameron punching fortunes into the NHS.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

According to figures released we have/had roughly 84,000 positive Tests and roughly 10,000 in hospital deaths, that's worse than 10%.

Mortality rate refers to deaths per population.
Coronavirus deaths is just the number of deaths.

As a % of the population it's currently around 0.015%

 

[Box Brownie]

According to figures released we have/had roughly 84,000 positive Tests and roughly 10,000 in hospital deaths, that's worse than 10%.

And relatively huge by comparison the US has had fewer deaths as a % of the population approx 250M (530,000 infected & 20,000 deaths)

It is sadly continuing to get worse before it gets any drop in the curve.

PS I and SWMBO both said that hearing the >10,000 figure has a real sense of unreality..................but it is real, so I just wish everyone, everywhere in the UK would get the bl**dy message !!!!!

 

[Box Brownie]

One can but hope, but I didn't see Cameron punching fortunes into the NHS.

His expression that the NHS is powered by love ignored the elephant in the room that it is driven by money.
NB the amount being thrown at it now in no way forgives the poor planning in its funding for decades across all governments

 

[nilagin]

Just as well for him he got Corona when he did... if that had happened next year his nurse Luis from Portugal would not have been allowed to work here would he?

Why wouldn't he be allowed to work here?

 

[Donnie]

So do you think he's having us on too?

Not in the least, he was tested, test was positive and he was treated for covid 19. Im simply pointing out a productive cough is not a symptom of covid 19.

 

[Donnie]

If Boris went to chequers to recuperate, they're hardly going to leave his pregnant partner in Downing St on her own.

why not? how is she any different to any other single pregnant mother in the same situation?

 

[sphexx]

If Boris went to chequers to recuperate, they're hardly going to leave his pregnant partner in Downing St on her own.

She wasn’t in Downing St, she was at some other address (her flat?) with symptoms of CV.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

why not? how is she any different to any other single pregnant mother in the same situation?

Well for a start she's not really a single pregnant mother in the true sense, she's in a permanent relationship.

 

[cambsno]

why not? how is she any different to any other single pregnant mother in the same situation?

Well for a start a huge security risk being the other half of a prime minister, and with his child too. Possibly easier for security services.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Well for a start a huge security risk being the other half of a prime minister, and with his child too. Possibly easier for security services.

Nah, that's too much like common sense....

 

[bass_junkie83]

Well for a start she's not really a single pregnant mother in the true sense, she's in a permanent relationship.

Moot point, but she is in a relationship with Boris, I'm not sure that can be classed as a permanent relationship.

 

[boyfalldown]

Do you think his "near death" experience will change how he thinks about anything?

Years ago, when David Cameron's son, Ivan, died I did think the prevailing thinking may be more generous to the NHS. It wasn't. Sadly I doubt BJ's experience will change things.

 

[Deleted member 49549]

While he was plainly a bit of a t*** posting that, regarding the comment "We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe" IIRC the mortality rate was 10% for Spanish flu. Our present 10,000 dead might well be 100,000. Worth thinking about - and being grateful this isn't as bad as that.

Are the calculations for the mortality rates comparable? Given that we are testing a lot of people, the denominator in the calculation will as a result be a lot higher for coronavirus vs Spanish flu.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

I'm sure Mr Johnson's illness was perfectly genuine. It isn't easy to fool the highly trained, intelligent medics of a major London teaching hospital. Perhaps that's why so few doctors appear to have voted for his party or his favourite policy?

True. And if he wasn't as bad as made out, or didn't have it at all, it wouldn't be a secret that was kept for very long anyway as too many people would know. So we would hear about it, even if medical staff shouldn't share info on patients.

 

[Deleted sulking member 63079]

While he was plainly a bit of a t*** posting that, regarding the comment "We are nowhere near a 1919-style catastrophe" IIRC the mortality rate was 10% for Spanish flu. Our present 10,000 dead might well be 100,000. Worth thinking about - and being grateful this isn't as bad as that.

Also puts into perspective that our own Government was at one point suggesting that 250000 of us should die to give us herd immunity.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Years ago, when David Cameron's son, Ivan, died I did think the prevailing thinking may be more generous to the NHS. It wasn't. Sadly I doubt BJ's experience will change things.

It might though because it was actually him that was ill.
We can only hope.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Also puts into perspective that our own Government was at one point suggesting that 250000 of us should die to give us herd immunity.

Wasn't it the case that when the model showed the potential for 250,000 deaths using herding that they changed their action plan?