The virus. PPE. Part 1

Status
Not open for further replies.
Paywall. :banghead:
 
You can read the 'most important' coronavirus news on the NYT site if you create a free account. I can see that one, but not sure if it's the account or just because I haven't gone over the number of free articles they allow in general each month.
 
Last edited:
Paywall. :banghead:

C.I.A. Hunts for Authentic Virus Totals in China, Dismissing Government Tallies

Intelligence officials have told the White House for weeks that China has vastly understated the spread of the coronavirus and the damage the pandemic has done.


WASHINGTON — The C.I.A. has been warning the White House since at least early February that China has vastly understated its coronavirus infections and that its count could not be relied upon as the United States compiles predictive models to fight the virus, according to current and former intelligence officials.

The intelligence briefings in recent weeks, based at least in part on information from C.I.A. assets in China, played an important role in President Trump’s negotiation on Thursday of an apparent détente with President Xi Jinping of China. Since then, both countries have ratcheted back criticism of each other.

Obtaining a more accurate count of the Chinese rate of infection and deaths from the virus has worldwide public health implications at a time of grave uncertainty over the virus, its speed of transmission and other fundamental questions. For American officials, the totals are critical to getting a better understanding of how Covid-19 will affect the United States in the months to come and of the effectiveness of countermeasures like social distancing, according to American intelligence agencies and White House officials.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.
But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.

Bureaucratic misreporting is a chronic problem for any government, but it has grown worse in China as the Communist leadership has taken a more authoritarian turn in recent years under Mr. Xi.

Help us report in critical moments.
Subscribe today to support The Times
No complete picture of the virus exists anywhere because of factors beyond government suppression, including testing shortages, varying measurement standards and asymptomatic infections that could account for up to one in four coronavirus cases. Iran has obfuscated its struggles with the pandemic. Italy’s death count of more than 13,000, the most worldwide, leaves out people who died outside hospitals. Testing in the United States lags behind other countries.

Latest Updates: Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.

As millions more Americans lose their jobs, more federal aid is uncertain.
Positive coronavirus tests rise with age, White House data shows.
OPEC and Russia reach a deal to cut oil production amid lower demand.
See more updates
Updated 1h ago
More live coverage: Global Markets New York
But since January, White House officials have come to view with skepticism the Chinese tallies in particular and asked the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies to prioritize collection of information on China.

Bloomberg News first reported the C.I.A.’s assessment that China was underreporting its virus diagnoses and deaths. Officials played down a revelation about an intelligence report sent last week to the White House, saying that the C.I.A. has for several weeks told White House officials not to trust the numbers that Beijing was handing to the World Health Organization.
The American intelligence about understated numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. Intelligence officers have not verified the press reports and have left them out of their reports, according to people briefed on their work.

American officials cautioned that even with their own sourcing, many of the intelligence agencies’ warnings to the White House since the beginning of the outbreak have hewed relatively close to reports from journalists, who have been aggressively reporting on the coronavirus outbreak in China and the Chinese government’s efforts to suppress reporting about its spread.

China has credited its drastic containment measures — including a lockdown of nearly 60 million people — for a drop in newly reported cases in recent weeks, but many people outside its government have raised concerns that the figures are incomplete.

For example, China has not been reporting the number of asymptomatic cases it is aware of. As many as 25 percent of people who contract the virus may not show signs of it, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said.

Asked about China’s numbers at a news conference on Wednesday, Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, said the United States was “not in a position” to confirm them. Without acknowledging any classified intelligence reports, he noted that public reporting had called the numbers into question.

“There’s no way to confirm any of those numbers,” Mr. O’Brien said. “There’s lots of public reporting on whether the numbers are too low.”

Officials also said that China’s underreporting of its pandemic totals was unsurprising, saying that official statistics from the country are often lies.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing had been high after the virus spread beyond Wuhan and reached the United States, forcing shutdowns of wide swaths of the economy to control the spread.

Chinese diplomats have spread disinformation, including false reports that the virus originated from a United States Army lab and other conspiracy theories. Mr. Trump has retaliated by referring to Covid-19 as “the Chinese virus,” and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo derailed an international communiqué in an effort to label the disease as coming from China.

But after the call between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump last week, an uneasy peace took hold. While the Chinese media has continued to spread conspiracy theories, the most prominent Chinese diplomats have tempered their comments.

Mr. Trump, too, has toned down his harsh language. Asked about intelligence reports that China had misreported the virus’s damage, Mr. Trump suggested he may have discussed the matter with Mr. Xi.

“The numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that, relative to what we witnessed and what was reported, but we discussed that with him,” Mr. Trump said. “Not so much the numbers as what they did and how they’re doing.”

But then Mr. Trump mentioned his trade deal and Chinese spending on American agriculture and tempered his criticism.

“As to whether or not their numbers are accurate,” he said, “I’m not an accountant from China.”
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nod
On the news last night an old guy broke his arm, was admitted to hospital, caught CV and died, no sign of CV before he went in.
Is that trip outside home really required?

Where did he fall? My grandad died after a fall at home.

It’s all about risk. I am currently doing diy, could spray fence paint in my eye or saw a finger off, unless you sit watching tv nothing is safe!! Ok, am being pedantic but the benefits physically and mentally about going for a walk far outweigh the risk.
 
My sister is a nurse and is looking after all our needs very well as we self isolate. She developed a cough last week but thankfully she was tested and it came back negative for C19. She has to go for another test but as the cough has now gone it looks like it was just a run or the mill bug. Thank Gosh.
 
Last edited:
they can stick their medals in their rectums as far as Im concerned

Edit to add: If supporting a tabloids publicity campaign is Starmers way of starting his leadership then i doubt it's going to amount to much for those of us that can see past a headline :rolleyes:
Yeah, he's missed a trick.
Ideal opportunity to say "forget medals, just pay them what they deserve"...
 
Ideal opportunity to say "forget medals, just pay them what they deserve"...


But by then, he may well be in charge and have to find the money to do what he thinks is the right thing.

In a similar vein, Mrs Nod has a few nurses as customers/victims/whatever in her Yoga classes and has one class that runs through the 8pm Thursday "Clap For The NHS" time. All the nurses in the class would far rather she carried on teaching through it than interrupt the class. (Although last night, she got the students doing a breathing exercise at 19:59 so those that wanted to [and she] could slip out for a few moments without disturbing those who need the class.)
 
'For too long, our health and care workers have been taken for granted and poorly paid ... We must repay that debt, with a new settlement for our health and care heroes'
(if you read past the headline).

I did and I did see that, however my point is that medals dont put food on the table, pay mortgages etc and the nhs has been underfunded for over a decade. Backing f*****g medals is at best an attempt and looking politically correct and at worst insulting and patronising.

Its easy to say he wants a new settlement when you're 5 years away from the next general election etc, honestly as much as I would never vote Tory Im actually expecting more from the current government on pay for public sector workers. Problem is I cant see if it will be a reward or another pay freeze it could go either way!
 
C.I.A. Hunts for Authentic Virus Totals in China, Dismissing Government Tallies

Intelligence officials have told the White House for weeks that China has vastly understated the spread of the coronavirus and the damage the pandemic has done.


WASHINGTON — The C.I.A. has been warning the White House since at least early February that China has vastly understated its coronavirus infections and that its count could not be relied upon as the United States compiles predictive models to fight the virus, according to current and former intelligence officials.

The intelligence briefings in recent weeks, based at least in part on information from C.I.A. assets in China, played an important role in President Trump’s negotiation on Thursday of an apparent détente with President Xi Jinping of China. Since then, both countries have ratcheted back criticism of each other.

Obtaining a more accurate count of the Chinese rate of infection and deaths from the virus has worldwide public health implications at a time of grave uncertainty over the virus, its speed of transmission and other fundamental questions. For American officials, the totals are critical to getting a better understanding of how Covid-19 will affect the United States in the months to come and of the effectiveness of countermeasures like social distancing, according to American intelligence agencies and White House officials.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.
But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.

Bureaucratic misreporting is a chronic problem for any government, but it has grown worse in China as the Communist leadership has taken a more authoritarian turn in recent years under Mr. Xi.

Help us report in critical moments.
Subscribe today to support The Times
No complete picture of the virus exists anywhere because of factors beyond government suppression, including testing shortages, varying measurement standards and asymptomatic infections that could account for up to one in four coronavirus cases. Iran has obfuscated its struggles with the pandemic. Italy’s death count of more than 13,000, the most worldwide, leaves out people who died outside hospitals. Testing in the United States lags behind other countries.

Latest Updates: Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.

As millions more Americans lose their jobs, more federal aid is uncertain.
Positive coronavirus tests rise with age, White House data shows.
OPEC and Russia reach a deal to cut oil production amid lower demand.
See more updates
Updated 1h ago
More live coverage: Global Markets New York
But since January, White House officials have come to view with skepticism the Chinese tallies in particular and asked the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies to prioritize collection of information on China.

Bloomberg News first reported the C.I.A.’s assessment that China was underreporting its virus diagnoses and deaths. Officials played down a revelation about an intelligence report sent last week to the White House, saying that the C.I.A. has for several weeks told White House officials not to trust the numbers that Beijing was handing to the World Health Organization.
The American intelligence about understated numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. Intelligence officers have not verified the press reports and have left them out of their reports, according to people briefed on their work.

American officials cautioned that even with their own sourcing, many of the intelligence agencies’ warnings to the White House since the beginning of the outbreak have hewed relatively close to reports from journalists, who have been aggressively reporting on the coronavirus outbreak in China and the Chinese government’s efforts to suppress reporting about its spread.

China has credited its drastic containment measures — including a lockdown of nearly 60 million people — for a drop in newly reported cases in recent weeks, but many people outside its government have raised concerns that the figures are incomplete.

For example, China has not been reporting the number of asymptomatic cases it is aware of. As many as 25 percent of people who contract the virus may not show signs of it, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have said.

Asked about China’s numbers at a news conference on Wednesday, Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser, said the United States was “not in a position” to confirm them. Without acknowledging any classified intelligence reports, he noted that public reporting had called the numbers into question.

“There’s no way to confirm any of those numbers,” Mr. O’Brien said. “There’s lots of public reporting on whether the numbers are too low.”

Officials also said that China’s underreporting of its pandemic totals was unsurprising, saying that official statistics from the country are often lies.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing had been high after the virus spread beyond Wuhan and reached the United States, forcing shutdowns of wide swaths of the economy to control the spread.

Chinese diplomats have spread disinformation, including false reports that the virus originated from a United States Army lab and other conspiracy theories. Mr. Trump has retaliated by referring to Covid-19 as “the Chinese virus,” and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo derailed an international communiqué in an effort to label the disease as coming from China.

But after the call between Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump last week, an uneasy peace took hold. While the Chinese media has continued to spread conspiracy theories, the most prominent Chinese diplomats have tempered their comments.

Mr. Trump, too, has toned down his harsh language. Asked about intelligence reports that China had misreported the virus’s damage, Mr. Trump suggested he may have discussed the matter with Mr. Xi.

“The numbers seem to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that, relative to what we witnessed and what was reported, but we discussed that with him,” Mr. Trump said. “Not so much the numbers as what they did and how they’re doing.”

But then Mr. Trump mentioned his trade deal and Chinese spending on American agriculture and tempered his criticism.

“As to whether or not their numbers are accurate,” he said, “I’m not an accountant from China.”
China is a big complicated country with lots of people. Given that apparently we haven’t been counting deaths in nursing homes and I’m sure the US counting will be a shambles (because it always is federally) the concentration on accuracy of Chinese figures is a bit off :(. Pots & Kettles :(.
 
Considering the probable state of the economy, a pay freeze will be easy for the government to justify, to themselves if not the general public.

And so, austerity continues ad infinitum ...

Indeed despite the millions (billions) being paid for people being furloughed and bailing out business and the self employed (which I fully support to be honest, I was just shocked the Tories would actually do it) I fully expect after all this settles down that the current "heroes" will be shafted :-/
However, Im happy to admit that attitudes based on history and we are in very odd times so I guess anything could happen. "Hope for the best, but fearing the worst"
 
Yeah, he's missed a trick.
Ideal opportunity to say "forget medals, just pay them what they deserve"...

The biggest trick missed was every party should have said they would back the government, make Boris his tea, sweep downing street, clean the windows, help the NHS, whatever it takes to get the country through the crisis, they would have come out looking great.
 
However, Im happy to admit that attitudes based on history and we are in very odd times so I guess anything could happen. "Hope for the best, but fearing the worst"


History is our only, but imperfect, guide. Hopefully, this time, history will not repeat itself. The poor, the disabled, the disadvantaged, do not deserve a repeat of the last decade.
 
Yeah, he's missed a trick.
Ideal opportunity to say "forget medals, just pay them what they deserve"...

I fail to understand this argument, a career in the NHS or anywhere else for that matter is not mandatory, people know the wages, the structure, the conditions, its a choice. As for "deserve" who makes that decision?
 
I did and I did see that, however my point is that medals dont put food on the table, pay mortgages etc and the nhs has been underfunded for over a decade. Backing f*****g medals is at best an attempt and looking politically correct and at worst insulting and patronising.

Its easy to say he wants a new settlement when you're 5 years away from the next general election etc, honestly as much as I would never vote Tory Im actually expecting more from the current government on pay for public sector workers. Problem is I cant see if it will be a reward or another pay freeze it could go either way!

I think if he'd said no, the story (perhaps in the Mail rather than the Mirror) would have been 'Starmer spurns honours for our NHS heroes!'. In the likely economic situation after the pandemic (and the Brexit transition period) I suspect pay rises for public sector workers won't be a priority for the Tories, but public opinion and political pressure might force them to do something for the NHS that goes beyond promising imaginary hospitals and counting retained staff as new.
 
Where did he fall? My grandad died after a fall at home.

It’s all about risk. I am currently doing diy, could spray fence paint in my eye or saw a finger off, unless you sit watching tv nothing is safe!! Ok, am being pedantic but the benefits physically and mentally about going for a walk far outweigh the risk.
Agreed. A balance needs to be drawn between necessary and choice travel. I think the TV report just highlights the real risk of going to hospital at present.
 
I fail to understand this argument, a career in the NHS or anywhere else for that matter is not mandatory, people know the wages, the structure, the conditions, its a choice. As for "deserve" who makes that decision?
Just as well the majority are not in it for the money then....
Ps...don't mention your comment if you ever get taken in....:-)
 
Just as well the majority are not in it for the money then....
Ps...don't mention your comment if you ever get taken in....:)
I wonder: do postings on TP get included in your medical notes? :thinking:
 
Indeed despite the millions (billions) being paid for people being furloughed and bailing out business and the self employed (which I fully support to be honest, I was just shocked the Tories would actually do it) I fully expect after all this settles down that the current "heroes" will be shafted :-/
However, Im happy to admit that attitudes based on history and we are in very odd times so I guess anything could happen. "Hope for the best, but fearing the worst"
I think that is plan for the worst, which is what we didn’t do before this pandemic :(.
 
I fail to understand this argument, a career in the NHS or anywhere else for that matter is not mandatory, people know the wages, the structure, the conditions, its a choice. As for "deserve" who makes that decision?

I really cannot decide whether to

a) ignore you
b) Get a deserved ban from the mods for saying what has first come into my mind
c) Something sensible about how people enter into careers with full knowledge of the conditions and wages which subsequently change drastically to the point where some are forced to get a second job, use food banks, get bullied, leave due to the undue pressures and strains, some commit suicide, etc etc.

But I shall simply plump for (a) as the very facts of what you have written show both a complete lack of insight as well as promote you as the type of chap that will simply argue the toss on and on. So, yeah, (a) it is.
 
Worldometer is now reporting over 100,000 deaths from COVID-19. The UK, which has about 0.8% of the world's population, accounts for 9% of these.

1586536871111.png
 
I've had a quick check back and don't see this link having been posted.

Last night on TV there was a special showing of Horizon..listed as Part one. It looked in detail at the virus,it's progress and also at the progress of the work on a vaccine.
It explained how the virus got to humans but more interestingly how it adapted to lock on to our cells,. If my memory serves me correctly I recall Retune saying , several days ago,I think,that it had 'evolved' to be able to lock on to human cells. This programme shows how it did it. I find this extraordinary. On the face of it it seems as though it has a'brain'. What is causing it to adapt like that ?

As I say,it's listed as Part 1 and I can't see a listing for this evening. It won't show in any magazine listings as it wasn't scheduled. It runs for one hour. I appreciate that quite a few links aren't opened but this really is worth watching.A check on the television listings pages will show it but I didn't see it listed for this evening so I don't know when Part 2 will be broadcast.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000h3nm/horizon-2020-coronavirus-special-part-1
 
Last edited:
I've had a quick check back and don't see this link having been posted.

Last night on TV there was a special showing of Horizon..listed as Part one. It looked in detail at the virus,it's progress and also at the progress of the work on a vaccine.
It explained how the virus got to humans but more interestingly how it adapted to lock on to our cells,. If my memory serves me correctly I recall Retune saying , several days ago,I think,that it had 'evolved' to be able to lock on to human cells. This programme shows how it did it. I find this extraordinary. On the face of it it seems as though it has a'brain'. What is causing it to adapt like ?
Its a little known process called evolution by natural selection, John ;).
 
That list is a bit odd. It give GPs as £29k but my GPS report an average of around £100k for 4 partners & 4+ salaried GPs. I suppose they are GPS employed directly by NHS all the others are obliged to post their average salaries per practice.
That could be a junior doctor?
 
That list is a bit odd. It give GPs as £29k but my GPS report an average of around £100k for 4 partners & 4+ salaried GPs. I suppose they are GPS employed directly by NHS all the others are obliged to post their average salaries per practice.
Where did you see GPs? I can only see nurses.
 
Its a little known process called evolution by natural selection, John ;).

Yes, and it is startling because the adaptation is so rapid. I have become quite fascinated by viruses, but am limited because my knowledge is infinitesimal and going on for nil. I have read several accounts that viruses that are seasonal puzzling because no one seems to know why that is the case.
Are you about Toni ? Perhaps you could elucidate, please.
 
Last edited:
I recall Retune saying , several days ago,I think,that it had 'evolved' to be able to lock on to human cells. This programme shows how it did it. I find this extraordinary. On the face of it it seems as though it has a 'brain'. What is causing it to adapt like that ?
It's the Blind Watchmaker at work! These viruses are mutating all the time because the process by which they copy themselves isn't error-free, but most mutations either do nothing interesting, or are deleterious to the virus and will be quickly eliminated. But every so often, purely by chance, a mutation happens that gives the virus a selective advantage. In areas of rural China where there are large population of bats, there's evidence that viruses related to this one are infecting people quite often. But we never hear about them because they aren't well-adapted to transmit between humans. Perhaps they infect just one person, or maybe a small group in close contact with each other, before the infection fizzles out. But this virus has won the genetic lottery (the losers never make the news). It has acquired a set of changes that make it particularly good at replicating in and spreading between humans. We don't know whether this happened in the original bat host, or whether an intermediate host was involved (like the pangolin that has been implicated here, or the civet in SARS), or whether all the relevant evolution occurred in earlier human hosts. The virus may have more than one ancestor (two related viruses that infect the same host at once may swap part of their genetic material by a process called recombination). We may never know the exact path it took, but as more related viruses are sampled in bats and other potential hosts (and maybe even archival human samples) we might be able to piece together a clearer picture. Whatever the route, this one has some clear advantages that we are just starting to explore. It can bind a human cell protein called ACE2 more effectively than many of its relatives and use it as a receptor (an entry point), which may be why it's good at getting established in and potentially spreading from the upper respiratory tract (where ACE2 is less plentiful) as well as the lungs (where it does most damage). It can also make use of a human enzyme called Furin that does the job of cleaving and activating the 'spike' protein that binds the host receptor. Mutations are still accumulating as the virus spreads and replicates, but so far nothing has turned up that is likely to make the virus any worse for us than it is already. It hardly needs to be. If viruses really did have brains, all they'd care about would be replication, which this one is already very good at in our species (disease is incidental to the virus, except where it triggers things like coughing that help it spread). There's really no selection pressure for it to alter its highly successful formula.
 
Its a little known process called evolution by natural selection, John ;).

What is causing it to adapt like that ?

The other phrase is 'selection pressure' - only the right mutation will allow the virus to jump species, and all those with the wrong mutation simply can't make the jump.

*Retune said it so much better than I did*
 
Last edited:
Where did you see GPs? I can only see nurses.
There’s a drop down — I’ve no idea if the nurses list is correct, I mean it’s not clear (to us!) what they are reporting.
 
It's the Blind Watchmaker at work! These viruses are mutating all the time because the process by which they copy themselves isn't error-free, but most mutations either do nothing interesting, or are deleterious to the virus and will be quickly eliminated. But every so often, purely by chance, a mutation happens that gives the virus a selective advantage. In areas of rural China where there are large population of bats, there's evidence that viruses related to this one are infecting people quite often. But we never hear about them because they aren't well-adapted to transmit between humans. Perhaps they infect just one person, or maybe a small group in close contact with each other, before the infection fizzles out. But this virus has won the genetic lottery (the losers never make the news). It has acquired a set of changes that make it particularly good at replicating in and spreading between humans. We don't know whether this happened in the original bat host, or whether an intermediate host was involved (like the pangolin that has been implicated here, or the civet in SARS), or whether all the relevant evolution occurred in earlier human hosts. The virus may have more than one ancestor (two related viruses that infect the same host at once may swap part of their genetic material by a process called recombination). We may never know the exact path it took, but as more related viruses are sampled in bats and other potential hosts (and maybe even archival human samples) we might be able to piece together a clearer picture. Whatever the route, this one has some clear advantages that we are just starting to explore. It can bind a human cell protein called ACE2 more effectively than many of its relatives and use it as a receptor (an entry point), which may be why it's good at getting established in and potentially spreading from the upper respiratory tract (where ACE2 is less plentiful) as well as the lungs (where it does most damage). It can also make use of a human enzyme called Furin that does the job of cleaving and activating the 'spike' protein that binds the host receptor. Mutations are still accumulating as the virus spreads and replicates, but so far nothing has turned up that is likely to make the virus any worse for us than it is already. It hardly needs to be. If viruses really did have brains, all they'd care about would be replication, which this one is already very good at in our species (disease is incidental to the virus, except where it triggers things like coughing that help it spread). There's really no selection pressure for it to alter its highly successful formula.
Yes, I’ve been kicking myself for not citing the old Watchmaker : (. You say “If viruses really did have brains, all they'd care about would be replication” but how do you know that? You are anthropomorphising just because it’s all you care about. If they were sentient they might be into music or higher mathematics or art :).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top