The virus. PPE. Part 1

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myotis said:
As far as I can make out the model they are using for the UK is based on us having 799 ICU beds.

Not sure what the UK figure is, but on the graph from yesterdays briefing Scotland alone had 600 ICU beds, with the new Louisa Jordan hospital bringing another 1000 (but that 600 might include the 300 at the Louisa Jordan that became available yesterday)
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The 799 is repeated in this article, so wonder where that comes from?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

On further googling, someone has Clarified on the Guardian's live feed:

"Their forecast is based on old data showing uk having 799 ICU beds (eg previous accepted number of 4000 minus the usual 4/5 occupancy level) so not accounting for any of the re-organisation and expansion within hospitals that’s been happening nor any of the temporary field hospitals.

Also they say they could not get invasive ventilator numbers for uk and so seem to have put that figure at zero in their model.

If you bung those numbers in of course it’s going to come out with a massive total of deaths."

So yes, it needs revised on current numbers of ICU capability
 
Some commentary in the Guardian, including a quote from Neil Ferguson who did the modelling the government is relying on:

'Ferguson said he did not think the predictions could be relied on. “This model does not match the current UK situation,” he said, adding that the numbers used by the IHME were at least twice as high as they should be for current bed usage and deaths in the NHS. “Basically, their healthcare demand model is wrong, at least for the UK,” he said.

The IHME said its model was designed to be updated from day to day as the pandemic goes on. For a country such as the UK, which is quite early on in its outbreak, the uncertainty was higher and the headline numbers might change over the next few days as more data is collected.'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ropes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts
 
KitsuneAndy said:
The 799 So yes, it needs revised on current numbers of ICU capability
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It's still a worrying number of predicted deaths to have available out there in the wild, given the out of date data being fed into the model. Let us hope for a rapid correction
 
MatBin said:
Huge range for daily peak deaths though. We haven't seen a huge rise day on day for daily deaths so far, the trajectory hasn't gone vertical (yet?).
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There are fluctuations from day to day due to uneven reporting (the headline daily figures aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hours, and some will be several days old). But the trend from late March until now has been steeply upwards.

daily.jpg
 
Retune said:
(the headline daily figures aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hours, and some will be several days old).
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"More or Less" on BBC R4 this morning highlighted the reporting lag. One of the interviewees suggested that results on Mondays and Tuesdays could be as much as 50% out due to staff being too busy to go through the reporting procedure over the weekend. On top of this, many centres will not report on a death until the family has been informed, which can take several days.

Another interviewee suggested that the daily reporting should be stopped and replaced with a weekly report issued on Wednesday, giving the figures up to the previous Friday.
 
Retune said:
There are fluctuations from day to day due to uneven reporting (the headline daily figures aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hours, and some will be several days old). But the trend from late March until now has been steeply upwards.

View attachment 274527
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Graphs can be made to look any way you wish, if the vertical axis had been from for instance 0 to 5,000 then the upswing wouldnt look as bad, clearly going from 400 to 800 in 6 days isnt good (going from 400 to 401 isnt good either, just to make my views clear).
 
KitsuneAndy said:
"Oh it's fine that 60000 people died, just look at the people who didn't die"?
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I didn't think the UK had that may deaths :rolleyes:
It's not ok but pretty depressing when that's all that is reported/ talked , it's a small percentage of those known
to have been infected and sometimes a success story lifts people's spirits
 
Gremlin said:
I didn't think the UK had that may deaths :rolleyes:
It's not ok but pretty depressing when that's all that is reported/ talked , it's a small percentage of those known
to have been infected and sometimes a success story lifts people's spirits
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It's what the modelling is predicting.

Yes it can be quite depressing, but people recovering *isn't* news, the high death rate and our governments response to it *is* though. Trying to play down the severity by comparing it to Flyu, or saying we should look at the people who've recovered, is missing the point a bit.
 
Gremlin said:
I didn't think the UK had that may deaths :rolleyes:
It's not ok but pretty depressing when that's all that is reported/ talked , it's a small percentage of those known
to have been infected and sometimes a success story lifts people's spirits
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Depressing it may be but also real, ie it reinforces the seriousness of the situation and I hope makes a majority of people take the disease seriously.

One of my NICU colleagues is currently on a ventilator on Intensive care and it's not looking good frankly so I think (as depressing as it is) there is an inevitability to her situation from the latest updates on her :-(
 
Donnie said:
Depressing it may be but also real, ie it reinforces the seriousness of the situation and I hope makes a majority of people take the disease seriously.

One of my NICU colleagues is currently on a ventilator on Intensive care and it's not looking good frankly so I think (as depressing as it is) there is an inevitability to her situation from the latest updates on her :-(
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Sorry to hear that, hope she pulls through.
 
joxby said:
They're at it again tonight. p1ssy Peston and the obnoxious Kuenssberg
No prizes for guessing what their angle is.
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don't blame the messengers for doing their job.
It is their job to ask the difficult questions.
It is up to the politician to have the positive answers to them.
 
Retune said:
There are fluctuations from day to day due to uneven reporting (the headline daily figures aren't necessarily from the previous 24 hours, and some will be several days old). But the trend from late March until now has been steeply upwards.

View attachment 274527
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I don't think we can rely too much on daily figures for the reason you point out, and the inclusion or exclusion of additional data which may or may not be included in the daily figures (deaths in prison and deaths in care homes, etc.). It's the general trend we need to watch. I hope to goodness that they manage to flatten the curve to avoid hospital capacity being overwhelmed. All most of us can do to help in the meantime is to stay at home and keep ourselves and our loved ones as safe as we can, and encourage others to do the same.
 
mex said:
This does not look good.
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It seems to confirm what we already knew: the very limited number of specialists that had the ear of government misjudged the evidence, they failed to consult widely enough, they made soothing noises when they should have raised warning flags and the cabinet was too absorbed with the exit from the EU when it should have been looking out for threats to the country.

It's the British way to concentrate on everything except what matters until the door is off its hinges and threat is in the room with us. :(
 
I wonder if the Govt had said after 3 deaths "right that's it we're going into lock down right now for 8 weeks to nail this thing before it starts" the UK Public would have stood for that? I'm guessing the answer would have been a resounding "NO".
The trouble is if we dont find a vaccine then we are going to need to get it, whether we like that thought or not and all we can hope for is keeping the daily cases low enough to not overwhelm the NHS.

Donnie - really sorry to hear about your colleague.
 
Mr Badger said:
I don't think we can rely too much on daily figures for the reason you point out, and the inclusion or exclusion of additional data which may or may not be included in the daily figures (deaths in prison and deaths in care homes, etc.). It's the general trend we need to watch. I hope to goodness that they manage to flatten the curve to avoid hospital capacity being overwhelmed. All most of us can do to help in the meantime is to stay at home and keep ourselves and our loved ones as safe as we can, and encourage others to do the same.
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I am very sceptical about much of what is reported. Listening directly what the scientists and medics have to say is absolutely fine.
However, reading or hearing the media's version of what they claim has been said by scientists and medics is an entirely different matter. Basically, only believe what has been verified.
 
MatBin said:
I wonder if the Govt had said after 3 deaths "right that's it we're going into lock down right now for 8 weeks to nail this thing before it starts" the UK Public would have stood for that? I'm guessing the answer would have been a resounding "NO".
The trouble is if we dont find a vaccine then we are going to need to get it, whether we like that thought or not and all we can hope for is keeping the daily cases low enough to not overwhelm the NHS.

Donnie - really sorry to hear about your colleague.
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Anyone with any sense would've stood for it, by just looking at what was happening in other countries.

Of course had we followed the WHO advice like South Korea did, such a lock down might not have been necessary.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
Anyone with any sense would've stood for it, by just looking at what was happening in other countries.

Of course had we followed the WHO advice like South Korea did, such a lock down might not have been necessary.
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I'm sure there were lots of conversations and decisions made taking into account information that we were not privy to.
I have no idea if the "best" decision was made.
 
"The words of Raab yesterday about Johnson being a fighter and the frequent use of war related words are not comforting . It’s not inspiring to be told that you have to go into battle with this virus, like some kind of medieval knight on a romantic quest. Submitting to medical science, in the hope of a cure, is just that – a submission. The idea that illness is a character test, with recovery as a reward for the valiant, is glib to the point of insult. "
 
Terrywoodenpic said:
don't blame the messengers for doing their job.
It is their job to ask the difficult questions.
It is up to the politician to have the positive answers to them.
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You say message, I say gratuitous scare mongering designed to unsettle.
They're not difficult questions and they are answered in full no matter how many times they are asked.
We don't need the BBC sh1tting in the bath tub every 5 minute pursuing their insidious agenda.
As a left leaner, I'm no fan of a conservative government but this incessant crap is tiresome, and definitely not in the countries interest.
 
mex said:
"The words of Raab yesterday about Johnson being a fighter and the frequent use of war related words are not comforting . It’s not inspiring to be told that you have to go into battle with this virus, like some kind of medieval knight on a romantic quest. Submitting to medical science, in the hope of a cure, is just that – a submission. The idea that illness is a character test, with recovery as a reward for the valiant, is glib to the point of insult. "
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It's just what people say.
I'm sure they don't mean any insult, however I'm sure there's always plenty that will look for insults in everything...
 
MatBin said:
Graphs can be made to look any way you wish, if the vertical axis had been from for instance 0 to 5,000 then the upswing wouldnt look as bad, clearly going from 400 to 800 in 6 days isnt good (going from 400 to 401 isnt good either, just to make my views clear).
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It's an appropriate scale for that data set. Setting the vertical axis to 5000 would't be. Let's hope it never is.
 
joxby said:
You say message, I say gratuitous scare mongering designed to unsettle.
They're not difficult questions and they are answered in full no matter how many times they are asked.
We don't need the BBC sh1tting in the bath tub every 5 minute pursuing their insidious agenda.
As a left leaner, I'm no fan of a conservative government but this incessant crap is tiresome, and definitely not in the countries interest.
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Its not just the Broadcast news thats pushing this line. Todays headline in the telegraph was talking about a crisis in government
 
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nilagin said:
There are a lot of the figures that don't get updated on there very often. The UK recovered figure of 135 hasn't changed in about a week.
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They can only update when figures are provided. I don't think anyone has released that number in the UK for some time.
 
joxby said:
You say message, I say gratuitous scare mongering designed to unsettle.
They're not difficult questions and they are answered in full no matter how many times they are asked.
We don't need the BBC sh1tting in the bath tub every 5 minute pursuing their insidious agenda.
As a left leaner, I'm no fan of a conservative government but this incessant crap is tiresome, and definitely not in the countries interest.
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Perhaps we could replace the news with a government approved information broadcast? Or maybe re-runs of Strictly to cheer up the population?
 
In any democracy there's a tension between the free flow of information and the desire of governments to control that information. They do this for reasons which range from extremely good through utterly selfish and on to just plain evil. Britain has always been closer to the "tight" end of that line.

The problem for any government is that if you are seen to be wrong or, worse still to have lied, the system breaks down rapidly. Trust is lost, advice is ignored and ever stronger controls become necessary because the population becomes frustrated and angry.

I believe that in this case the government has made many mistakes which can be characterised as procrastination and stupidity. The cabinet, on what now appears to be poor advice, did too little too late. Individuals who should have been setting good examples, instead broke the very rules they were promoting.

There are many lessons to be learnt here but the important thing it seems to me is that the lessons need to be learnt and put into practice right now.
 
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AndrewFlannigan said:
In any democracy there's a tension between the free flow of information and the desire of governments to control that information. They do this for reasons which range from extremely good through utterly selfish and on to just plain evil. Britain has always been closer to the "tight" end of that line.

The problem for any government is that if you are seen to be wrong or, worse still to have lied, the system breaks down rapidly. Trust is lost, advice is ignored and ever stronger controls become necessary because the population becomes frustrated and angry.

I believe that in this case the government has made many mistakes which can be characterised as procrastination and stupidity. The cabinet, on what now appears to be poor advice, did too little too late. Individuals who should have been setting good examples, instead broke the very rules they were promoting.

There are many lessons to be learnt here but the important thing it seems to me is that the lessons need to be learnt and put into practice RIGHT NOW.
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I dare say it's always easy to be critical of any situation when you're on the outside looking in....
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
I dare say it's always easy to be critical of any situation when you're on the outside looking in....
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Rob, it's easy to criticise the actions, or in this case the inactions of our governments responses on almost all of the advice they had been given. The word useless seems all too lenient for them right now.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
I dare say it's always easy to be critical of any situation when you're on the outside looking in....
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It's also very easy to say "Should have done this" or "Shouldn't have done that" after the fact.
As you say, from the outside, we don't have to make the decisions.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
I dare say it's always easy to be critical of any situation when you're on the outside looking in....
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My point is that none of us are on the outside. We are all directly affected by the acumen and credibility of these people. If they chose to hide information so we are unaware of the risks; if they chose to lie to us so that we do the wrong things in ignorance; if they make mistakes which they could have avoided, it affects you and me and everyone else. This is not a time to say: "let us leave it to the experts". Rather, it's the time for us to say: "if you can't do the job, get out of the way so that someone who can, takes over".
 
MatBin said:
I'm sure there were lots of conversations and decisions made taking into account information that we were not privy to.
I have no idea if the "best" decision was made.
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We do know. Because we can look at South Korea, and see how different our figures are from that, and that they followed the WHO advice to the letter with the testing and contact tracing program.

There was a report I read the other day that said the Govt seemed to be listening to the statisticians and social scientists that are part of SAGE as opposed to those with medical and virological qualifications. Will try and find the link.
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
My point is that none of us are on the outside. We are all directly affected by the acumen and credibility of these people. If they chose to hide information so we are unaware of the risks; if they chose to lie to us so that we do the wrong things in ignorance; if they make mistakes which they could have avoided, it affects you and me and everyone else. This is not a time to say: "let us leave it to the experts". Rather, it's the time for us to say: "if you can't do the job, get out of the way so that someone who can, takes over".
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My point is that you or I don't know what's going on behind closed doors, or what's being said, planned etc.
If as in your opinion, our government are getting it so wrong, then so are many governments.
I'm not saying that's a good thing, but everything is always different with hindsight.
 
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