The virus. PPE. Part 1

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KitsuneAndy said:
They'd rather give the money to their mate Dyson I assume.
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one of the big advantages is that these novel designs are they are likely to use different components. stock levels of components will likely be one of the key logistical concerns of suddenly ramping up production of ventilators for the uk, or the eu....particularly at a time when routine airfreight is constrained (for example around 42% of air-freight from the USA normally rides in passenger planes).
 
LongLensPhotography said:
And it will be there to stay long after virus is gone. People will better get bloody outraged over this and other authoritarian power grabs.

Honestly if you go out walking your dog or to supermarket you are now much better off leaving your phone at home and wearing a nice big hat. I've already adopted these measures a few days ago.
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Was it a big tin foil hat?
 
arclight said:
How would you decide what is an unnecessary trip. People need excercise for physical and mental wellbeing (especially during lockdown).
Many folk live in areas where a walk would take them through areas where they would encounter many people.
People can drive to a place where they can walk without encountering people. It is very clear that those who drive to a quiet place to walk are posing no risk to themselves or others. Their journey to that walk is justified.
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Then they wait until there are less people about or take another route and / or keep a 2 metre distance. This is all in the instructions given us by Boris in the week to battle the pandemic. It's not justifiable to go for a drive to then go for a walk. Its been made very clear.
 
Bit ironic we are getting told to social distance yet the CMO probably has it, and the Health Sec and PM have it!!!
 
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nilagin said:
Police could easily use their CCTV cameras to trace where you go.
I saw a video on the TV this morning where the police used a drone and filmed a couple out walking their dog in the Lake District and then getting into their car. They were able to capture the car registration too, so I guess that couple will be getting a nice surprise.
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I still can't see the problem of driving somewhere to do your daily exercise, as long as you keep to the social distancing rules. There are some inner city inhabitants that would find walking around their local area more dangerous than Covid-19!!
 
Jelster said:
I still can't see the problem of driving somewhere to do your daily exercise, as long as you keep to the social distancing rules. There are some inner city inhabitants that would find walking around their local area more dangerous than Covid-19!!
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More danger from what? We are on lockdown.
 
Jelster said:
I still can't see the problem of driving somewhere to do your daily exercise, as long as you keep to the social distancing rules. There are some inner city inhabitants that would find walking around their local area more dangerous than Covid-19!!
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Increased visits to petrol stations, increased risk of contact

Increased risks of road traffic accidents, with increased risks of contact, increased pressure on health services. And you might just have an accident with an ICU doctor on their way to work, or some other key worker.

Car break down needing to call out car rescue services, increasing risk of contact

Risks of attempted car break-in leaving car door handle contaminated.

Increased pressure on ambulance/rescue services if called out to more distant casualties.

All low risk I admit, but when avoiding contact is so important and with high estimates of the percentage of people with the virus, but without symptoms, there are going to be a lot of people out there who are able to infect you, or for you to infect.

But, I agree this is rubbish for people who are trapped living in areas where there is nowhere pleasant to exercise.
 
nilagin said:
More danger from what? We are on lockdown.
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You know very well what I'm getting at; there are areas of inner cities where I wouldn't walk with an armed guard, let alone just my dog.

We're lucky here, we have plenty of walking trails all around us, but many don't.
 
Biggest rise in Italy daily death toll so far
Italy has confirmed 969 more deaths from the coronavirus in the past 24 hours, taking the country’s total to 9,134.
There are 4,401 new infections, making a total of 66,414 current cases.
This is believed to be the sharpest rise in fatalities that any country has seen so far throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
 
Fuji Dave said:
Biggest rise in Italy daily death toll so far
Italy has confirmed 969 more deaths from the coronavirus in the past 24 hours, taking the country’s total to 9,134.
There are 4,401 new infections, making a total of 66,414 current cases.
This is believed to be the sharpest rise in fatalities that any country has seen so far throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
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Upsetting, deeply so.
 
UK death toll hits new record
A total of 759 people have now died of the coronavirus in the UK, while 14,579 have tested positive.
The death toll jumped by 181 on Friday - a rise of 31% - making it the biggest rise in deaths that the country has seen so far, surpassing yesterday’s record of 115.
In England, patients were aged between 29 and 98 years old.
All but four patients, aged between 82 and 91 years old, had underlying health conditions, health officials said.
The UK has the seventh highest number of recorded deaths in the world after Italy, Spain, China, Iran, France and the US.
1585329597388.gif1585329597388.gif
 
Jelster said:
You know very well what I'm getting at; there are areas of inner cities where I wouldn't walk with an armed guard, let alone just my dog.

We're lucky here, we have plenty of walking trails all around us, but many don't.
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Like I said we are in lockdown, there isn't likely to be that many bad elements about and if people live in such areas, how do you think they get about anyway?
Plus you don't need to go outside to get exercise, you can just as easily get more beneficial exercise in doors, there are more than enough videos being posted on youtube, facebook etc for ideas on exercise you can get in the confines of your own home.
 
nilagin said:
Like I said we are in lockdown, there isn't likely to be that many bad elements about and if people live in such areas, how do you think they get about anyway?
Plus you don't need to go outside to get exercise, you can just as easily get more beneficial exercise in doors, there are more than enough videos being posted on youtube, facebook etc for ideas on exercise you can get in the confines of your own home.
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It's not the same though exercising in a flat....you should know that...elderly people may not be able to use home exercise equipment.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
It's not the same though exercising in a flat....you should know that...elderly people may not be able to use home exercise equipment.
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You don't need any equipment.
I have only ordered equipment for myself, because of the training I do. The vast majority of people can work out quite easily in there own home without the need to step outside.
 
It’s surprising the amount of exercises you can do at home. There’s a lot of YouTube videos with yoga / callisthenics/ Bodyweight training.

I have to say I’ve been tempted to get in the car to head somewhere remote. The chances of me coming into close proximity with people or causing a strain on resources seem minuscule. But if we all took the same attitude the millions of minuscule odds soon stack up. So I’m still at home...
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Lloyd's pharmacy had to close 6 branches due to violent and abusive behaviour towards their staff....
Terrible.


https://news.sky.com/video/share-11964648
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Rather than close the pharmacy, I would prefer that the recently passed emergency legislation, compelled violent and abusive customers to be sent to the front of line to get their medication. The pharmacist, would then be permitted to discreetly dispense a lethal dose of Cyanide or some other equally terminal medication, in the packaging of their original medication.

Problem solved.
 
cambsno said:
Bit ironic we are getting told to social distance yet the CMO probably has it, and the Health Sec and PM have it!!!
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Simples... we're all going to get it, so get it early, while the health system can still cope and look after you, before they're just leaving people in the Excel to die because theres not enough kit to treat everyone.
 
arclight said:
I have no medical/scientific qualifications therefore a little explanation would be greatly appreciated, Toni.
I think that the body produces red cell antibodies to fight infection and that donated blood with antibodies cannot be used for transfusion ........... is that correct ?
If 30% of dontated blood has antibodies then presumably a similar proportion of the general population is infected ......... is that correct ?

I can see how that will affect the number of people who die, but cannot grasp how that affects the death rate.
What am I failing to grasp, Toni.
Thanks for all your posts. Always welcome.
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Retune said:
Italy and China have about the same number of reported cases, but Italy has more than double the number of reported deaths. Does this mean that there is something special about the Italian epidemic (e.g. older people on average, or a collapse in the healthcare system that means many people are dying who could otherwise be saved), or could it be that the Italian epidemic is simply much larger than the epidemic in China, with many more unreported cases? A serological survey (testing blood for antibodies to the virus produced by white cells) gives us a handle on this. If this is a large, recent, representative sample of the Italian population and the results are correct, then it does imply that large numbers of Italians have been infected already, perhaps tens of millions rather than the tens of thousands we currently know about. This could explain why there are so many deaths, and in fact the proportion of deaths begins to look relatively low rather than relatively high.

The antibody test wouldn't tell us how many are currently infected, just that they've been exposed at some point, though because some types of antibody (IgM) are produced earlier than others (IgG), it may be possible to draw inferences about what stage an individual's antibody response is at if the test detects both. To detect a live infection you need to swab the respiratory system and do an RT-PCR test that picks up the genetic material of the virus (all the testing you've heard about up till now will have been done this way - it's the easiest test to develop rapidly). There'll be a period when a patient with an active infection is positive both by RT-PCR and by the antibody blood test, but as the infection is cleared they will only be antibody positive (hopefully for a long time). You could therefore use antibody testing to identify immune individuals who could (say) return to work safely.

Edit: Coronaviruses aren't thought to be bloodborne or to persist long-term, so it's not like being HIV antibody positive (which implies your body fluids are permanently infectious unless the virus is suppressed by medication). I believe viral RNA is, in a proportion of cases, detectable in the blood by RT-PCR, but I don't think anyone has found infectious virus, or reported infection by transfusion of this or any other coronavirus. There is some interest in using 'convalescent serum' from recovered patients, which will contain antibodies, to treat others.
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Excellent explanation, nothing I need to add.


Bebop said:
That is interesting!

We were skiing in northern Italy in the last week of January. My husband got a virus at the end of the week and he suffered most. I got it the next week with my children. We remarked at the time that it seemed a strange virus and my children (in their 20s) were barely ill. No cough of note though.
I'm harbouring a hope that that was it for us, and we might be immune now.
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It's theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely to have been this particular virus. From the wiki about the Italian situation: first confirmed to have spread to Italy on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for the virus. One week later an Italian man repatriated back to Italy from the city of Wuhan, China, was hospitalised and confirmed as the third case in Italy. A cluster of cases was later detected, starting with 16 confirmed cases in Lombardy on 21 February, and 60 additional cases and first deaths on 22 February.
 
TheBigYin said:
Simples... we're all going to get it, so get it early, while the health system can still cope and look after you, before they're just leaving people in the Excel to die because theres not enough kit to treat everyone.
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getting it early is not going to reduce the number of deaths, if anything it will increase them!
 
We are so fortunate that the ”leader of the red world” at this time is not easily fooled;
”“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311

They still don’t understand exponential growth :(.
 
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sphexx said:
We are so fortunate that the ”leader of the red world” at this time is not easily fooled;
”“I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311

They still don’t understand exponential growth :(.
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Why would Trump want to supply ventilators to a Democrat controlled State?
 
myotis said:
Increased visits to petrol stations, increased risk of contact

Increased risks of road traffic accidents, with increased risks of contact, increased pressure on health services. And you might just have an accident with an ICU doctor on their way to work, or some other key worker.

Car break down needing to call out car rescue services, increasing risk of contact

Risks of attempted car break-in leaving car door handle contaminated.

Increased pressure on ambulance/rescue services if called out to more distant casualties.

All low risk I admit, but when avoiding contact is so important and with high estimates of the percentage of people with the virus, but without symptoms, there are going to be a lot of people out there who are able to infect you, or for you to infect.

But, I agree this is rubbish for people who are trapped living in areas where there is nowhere pleasant to exercise.
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But don’t most accidents happen in the home. More prepping of food so risk of burns and cuts. Can’t go out so will do diy at weekend so risk of cuts/chemicals in face/other injuries? Should we just sit in front of the tv then?
 
Mozthecat said:
one of the big advantages is that these novel designs are they are likely to use different components. stock levels of components will likely be one of the key logistical concerns of suddenly ramping up production of ventilators for the uk, or the eu....particularly at a time when routine airfreight is constrained (for example around 42% of air-freight from the USA normally rides in passenger planes).
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Dyson motors from Singapore?
 
TheBigYin said:
Simples... we're all going to get it, so get it early, while the health system can still cope and look after you, before they're just leaving people in the Excel to die because theres not enough kit to treat everyone.
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All depends on the person. If under 60 and no health conditions it probably won’t do you any harm.
 
cambsno said:
But don’t most accidents happen in the home. More prepping of food so risk of burns and cuts. Can’t go out so will do diy at weekend so risk of cuts/chemicals in face/other injuries? Should we just sit in front of the tv then?
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Yes...that's what I'm doing....not taking any chances :-)
 
cambsno said:
But don’t most accidents happen in the home. More prepping of food so risk of burns and cuts. Can’t go out so will do diy at weekend so risk of cuts/chemicals in face/other injuries? Should we just sit in front of the tv then?
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I am offering suggestions as to why driving somewhere for exercise, carries more risk in terms of spreading the virus, than starting your exercise period from home.

Nothing I said suggests you cannot leave home.
 
cambsno said:
All depends on the person. If under 60 and no health conditions it probably won’t do you any harm.
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Why are we wasting our time with experts with this kind of logic?

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
Raymond Lin said:
Seriously, we are only about 2 weeks behind Italy on the timeline.

I would say the rest of Europe like France, Germany and Spain are slightly ahead of us, by 2-3 days maybe.

2 weeks from now I foresee most of Europe would be in lockdown like Italy. I hope i am wrong, I really do. The problem in the UK, instead of China, is that the infection here is popping up all over the country, it is not just 1 or 2 counties. So you can't just lockdown locally, but there will come to a point where schools will be shut, you can't have like 1000, 2000 infected daily with hundreds dying everyday (that's the figure in Italy today before someone says that won't happen) and say "it's just like flu.
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Holycrap I was accurate.

That was posted on 9th...2 weeks from the 9th is 23rd....we locked down on 23rd! In between Ireland, France & Spain also went into lockdown.
 
Raymond Lin said:
Holycrap I was accurate.

That was posted on 9th...2 weeks from the 9th is 23rd....we locked down on 23rd! In between Ireland, France & Spain also went into lockdown.
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And, sadly, we are still only about 2 weeks behind Italy, which had barely more deaths than we have now 16 days ago. Today they have over 9000.
 
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