The virus. PPE. Part 1

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ancient_mariner said:
Was that different from the text message we all had?
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Yes. There were supposed to be letters sent to 1.5 million people with underlying health conditions that made them more vulnerable....heart, respiratory, chemo therapy, leukemia etc.
This is the group who were supposed to stay home and their shopping etc would be done for them.
 
A concise, sensible article on the various statistical models of the pandemic, their limitations, and how many people might already be infected:

https://www.theguardian.com/science...xposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

On the widely publicised Gupta model from Oxford:

'Paul Klenerman, one of the Oxford researchers, called the 68% figure the most extreme result and explained that “there is another extreme which is that only a tiny proportion have been exposed”. The true figure, which is unknown, was likely somewhere in between, he said. In other words, the number of people infected in Britain is either very large, very small, or middling. This may sound unhelpful, but that is precisely the point. “We need much more data about who has been exposed to inform policy,” Klenerman said. The Oxford model was useful in emphasising the need for serological testing, but not for grasping the scale of the pandemic in the UK. As Prof James Wood, a researcher in infection dynamics at Cambridge University, put it: “The paper does substantially over-speculate and is open to gross over-interpretation by others.” '

On the Ferguson model from Imperial the government is using:

'The model, based on 13-year-old code for a long-feared influenza pandemic, assumed that the demand for intensive care units would be the same for both infections. Data from China soon showed this to be dangerously wrong, but the model was only updated when more data poured out of Italy, where intensive care was swiftly overwhelmed and deaths shot up. Nor was that the only shortcoming of the Imperial model. It did not consider the impact of widespread rapid testing, contact tracing and isolation, which can be used in the early stages of an epidemic or in lockdown conditions to keep infections down to such an extent that when restrictions are lifted the virus should not rebound.'

And the final word (which I've heard quoted a few times recently):

'Never have the words of the British statistician George Box rung truer than in this pandemic: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” '
 
simon ess said:
It says

GOV.UK CORONAVIRUS ALERT
New rules in force now: you must stay at home. More info & Exemptions at gov.uk/coronavirus Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.
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Actually, thinking about it, a scammer might have the apparent gov. uk link go somewhere nasty.

I don't know because I don't use my phone for internet.
 
Useful information. I found Sainsbury‘s are now saying on their website, if you try for a delivery, they are accessing a Gov list and linking to https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable . If you qualify you can sign up. They ask if you know your NHS number so worth having that to hand. I have not had one of these fabled letters but my online medical record has recently been marked as vulnerable to COVID. I expect the GP has written a letter but their letters go to some god-forsaken place like the Falklands or Milton Keynes before coming back to GOC Yorkshire :) so maybe it’ll arrive once this is all over ... or I am ... more likely :).

Edit: Curiously that is not linked to on the main Gov coronavirus site :(.
 
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I was wondering why the situation in Spain has become so bad, so quickly as the politicians had watched what had happened in Italy. This is a comprehensive overview, dated March 20th and there are similarities with the way we've dealt with it so far. The article states that Spain has an over-65 population of 20%. The UK equivalent is 18%. Looks like they had problems with a lack of testing too. Having been pulled up a couple times re my sources and I have no gripe with that..it's a good thing ..I have looked at what is said about Vox. It's been categorised as 'left leaning' (inas much as which subjects it chooses to write about) but crucially 'factual'. It does, however, criticise the left-wing coalition. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/vox/

The article looks ok to me. On Tuesday January 7th the elections produced a minority left-wing coalition of centre-left and left. As the first case in Italy was January 31st when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive another a week later from an Italian who had come from Wuhan. The first cluster (in Lombardy) was dated February 21st a further 60 and first deaths the next day. The first positive cases for Spain were in the Canary Islands on January 31st, the same day as Spanish people were evacuated from Wuhan arriving in Spain on February 9th but it wasn't until February 26th that the first mainland case was detected. It's all in the article except my numbers/dates re Italy..I got that from Wiki. I can't find any other article that looks at why Spain is where it is re the Covid-19 outbreak.

I think it's generally accepted that our government has been slow out of the blocks too. Even this evening answers re when will front-line staff will get proper masks etc were on the lines of.."As soon as possible" "We're working very hard to get the PPE to where it's needed" I heard on the news that a charity has been set up to buy PPE equipment and schools asked to donate science goggles. The government's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jennie Harries says there's enough PPE and it's a distribution problem

Spain:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/21183315/coronavirus-spain-outbreak-cases-tests
 
Retune said:
A concise, sensible article on the various statistical models of the pandemic, their limitations, and how many people might already be infected:

https://www.theguardian.com/science...xposes-the-problems-and-pitfalls-of-modelling

On the widely publicised Gupta model from Oxford:

'Paul Klenerman, one of the Oxford researchers, called the 68% figure the most extreme result and explained that “there is another extreme which is that only a tiny proportion have been exposed”. The true figure, which is unknown, was likely somewhere in between, he said. In other words, the number of people infected in Britain is either very large, very small, or middling. This may sound unhelpful, but that is precisely the point. “We need much more data about who has been exposed to inform policy,” Klenerman said. The Oxford model was useful in emphasising the need for serological testing, but not for grasping the scale of the pandemic in the UK. As Prof James Wood, a researcher in infection dynamics at Cambridge University, put it: “The paper does substantially over-speculate and is open to gross over-interpretation by others.” '

On the Ferguson model from Imperial the government is using:

'The model, based on 13-year-old code for a long-feared influenza pandemic, assumed that the demand for intensive care units would be the same for both infections. Data from China soon showed this to be dangerously wrong, but the model was only updated when more data poured out of Italy, where intensive care was swiftly overwhelmed and deaths shot up. Nor was that the only shortcoming of the Imperial model. It did not consider the impact of widespread rapid testing, contact tracing and isolation, which can be used in the early stages of an epidemic or in lockdown conditions to keep infections down to such an extent that when restrictions are lifted the virus should not rebound.'

And the final word (which I've heard quoted a few times recently):

'Never have the words of the British statistician George Box rung truer than in this pandemic: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” '
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Or alternatively, as my late brother John was given to saying :”garbage in garbage out” :).
 
A couple of snippets from France this evening.....

An option being discussed for the Tour de France is to hold it without spectators allowed at he roadside. Seems that the economics of the race are based on TV revenues and advertising/sponsorship so the impact wouldn't be felt financially.

Orly Airport will close at midnight next Tuesday.
 
JohnC6 said:
I was wondering why the situation in Spain has become so bad, so quickly as the politicians had watched what had happened in Italy. This is a comprehensive overview, dated March 20th and there are similarities with the way we've dealt with it so far. The article states that Spain has an over-65 population of 20%. The UK equivalent is 18%. Looks like they had problems with a lack of testing too. Having been pulled up a couple times re my sources and I have no gripe with that..it's a good thing ..I have looked at what is said about Vox. It's been categorised as 'left leaning' (inas much as which subjects it chooses to write about) but crucially 'factual'. It does, however, criticise the left-wing coalition. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/vox/

The article looks ok to me. On Tuesday January 7th the elections produced a minority left-wing coalition of centre-left and left. As the first case in Italy was January 31st when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive another a week later from an Italian who had come from Wuhan. The first cluster (in Lombardy) was dated February 21st a further 60 and first deaths the next day. The first positive cases for Spain were in the Canary Islands on January 31st, the same day as Spanish people were evacuated from Wuhan arriving in Spain on February 9th but it wasn't until February 26th that the first mainland case was detected. It's all in the article except my numbers/dates re Italy..I got that from Wiki. I can't find any other article that looks at why Spain is where it is re the Covid-19 outbreak.

I think it's generally accepted that our government has been slow out of the blocks too. Even this evening answers re when will front-line staff will get proper masks etc were on the lines of.."As soon as possible" "We're working very hard to get the PPE to where it's needed" I heard on the news that a charity has been set up to buy PPE equipment and schools asked to donate science goggles. The government's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jennie Harries says there's enough PPE and it's a distribution problem

Spain:

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/20/21183315/coronavirus-spain-outbreak-cases-tests
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TBH the manner in which this is dealt with goes beyond traditional left-right politics - as we've seen, the present government has taken steps that in different circumstances would be unthinkable for a conservative government, because they recognise this needs to be dealt with in a manner that ensures the country comes through in the best shape possible. This is NOT a time when simply muddling through without any major cockups will enable re-election.

Of course, as we've seen through this thread, some will use any opportunity to score points against the party they choose to dislike, and the media is no different, so always ask why the information/story you're reading is being published in the manner it is.

Why has Spain been hit so hard? In my un-professional opinion (I'm not an epidemiologist) it was because they allowed the virus to spread un-noticed through the population for too long before realising it needed investigating, plus Spanish social habits enabled rapid spread. It's clear that there are a large number of asymptomatic infections, and by the time people got really sick it was already in the community.
 
Canon Bob said:
A couple of snippets from France this evening.....

An option being discussed for the Tour de France is to hold it without spectators allowed at he roadside. Seems that the economics of the race are based on TV revenues and advertising/sponsorship so the impact wouldn't be felt financially.

Orly Airport will close at midnight next Tuesday.
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Can't believe they're even considering it.
 
sirch said:
The death rate is very accurately recorded, even a slight increase in seasonal "flu" deaths would have been picked up. The world really doesn't need a load of people thinking they are immune to Covid 19 because they had the sniffles in January, please stop.
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cambsno said:
Probably true, although they wouldn't have been looking for it. The deaths could have been there... 70 something dies who had health issues, got a cold and finished them off!
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Chris..I can assure you that what I and my wife suffered back in January and also cambso from his description, was definitely not 'the sniffles' I wish it had been. Neither of us had experienced anything as severe and we've had seasonal 'flu a few times over the years. Re your point on immunity..no, we don't think we're immune. My wife is very concerned about getting it because we have to go to the supermarket. It's just a thought that crossed our minds. When we wondered if it had been the Covid-19 we weren't aware that others were thinking on the same lines it was because our symptoms matched those of this virus. I've read that NHS England will be testing anyone with 'flu-like symptoms. Under the top heading Flu..as you see..there's a caveat re Corona virus so,on the face of it, they aren't dismissing the possibility. Neither of us experienced most of the 'flu symptoms listed here in the link so it wasn't unreasonable to entertain the idea it could have been Covid-19. Maybe what we had was a more potent strain of 'flu because we've both had the annual vaccination. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/flu/

Your first sentence is fine, I take that on board along with Simon's view too which is also fair comment. The rest of it was conjecture as I've pointed out.
 
ancient_mariner said:
TBH the manner in which this is dealt with goes beyond traditional left-right politics - as we've seen, the present government has taken steps that in different circumstances would be unthinkable for a conservative government, because they recognise this needs to be dealt with in a manner that ensures the country comes through in the best shape possible. This is NOT a time when simply muddling through without any major cockups will enable re-election.

Of course, as we've seen through this thread, some will use any opportunity to score points against the party they choose to dislike, and the media is no different, so always ask why the information/story you're reading is being published in the manner it is.

Why has Spain been hit so hard? In my un-professional opinion (I'm not an epidemiologist) it was because they allowed the virus to spread un-noticed through the population for too long before realising it needed investigating, plus Spanish social habits enabled rapid spread. It's clear that there are a large number of asymptomatic infections, and by the time people got really sick it was already in the community.
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Toni.. The article was written by a left-leaning organisation..the same as the Spanish coalition. That's why I pointed that out. In effect it was critical of the coalition parties to which it, according to my link, is politically affiliated so I don't understand why you brought up, quote ' Some will use any opportunity to score points against a party they choose to dislike' referring to members on here but also the media..ie VOX, who wrote the article. I can only assume you didn't open the link which would have informed you of this. This completely nullifies what you've written in your last paragraph..ie why you think Spain is in the situation it's in. You mention Spanish social habits. That's highlighted in the article.

What went on there, politically, has absolutely no bearing on the action of our government and I'm at a loss as to why you've taken that tack.

Some of what went wrong in Spain has been been reflected here but obviously, not for the same reasons. I did say that ,generally, the consensus is that HMG has been behind the curve. I've watched (and heard on the radio) several consultants and doctors say that we should have had the measures we are now seeing put in place taken two weeks ago and testing should have been brought in from the start and even now we're not seeing testing at any reasonable rate,not even for those on the front line. Not only our own consultants and doctors have been criticising the government but the Director General of WHO, no less. Nothing whatsoever to do with political point-scoring. I can't understand why you've read that aspect into it. I'm not often bewildered but I am on this one. As I've mentioned, I suspect you didn't read my link. I may be wrong but that's the only explanation I can think of that would have you take the line you have.
 
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I do wonder whether the habits of our Italian & Spanish neighbours is partly to blame for the level of mortality.

Southern Europeans do tend to smoke quite heavily, something that has reduced here over the years, and it’s also quite common to have 3 or 4 generations in the same home, again something we don’t tend to do here.
 
My neice has just started work in a Care Home. The care home failed to tell her that one of the residents has the virus and is currently in hospital and another resident is now showing symptoms. My neice now needs to self isolate, but she had been living with her 96 year old grandmother, so she can't go there, she also can't go home to her parents, because her mother and 4yr old sister both have health issues.
The poor girl is now basically homeless.
 
Jelster said:
I do wonder whether the habits of our Italian & Spanish neighbours is partly to blame for the level of mortality.

Southern Europeans do tend to smoke quite heavily, something that has reduced here over the years, and it’s also quite common to have 3 or 4 generations in the same home, again something we don’t tend to do here.
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There are some credible answers here: How did Spain get its coronavirus response so wrong? https://flip.it/vivYNe
 
Ricardodaforce said:
There are some credible answers here: How did Spain get its coronavirus response so wrong? https://flip.it/vivYNe
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I expect that once the crisis subsides and the WHO and others set about sifting through all the evidence there will be be no single cause that will explain the rapid spread of Covid 19. A multitude of aggravating factors seems to be likely.
It is also a matter of no little importance that the midden that was the source of Covid 19 (and SARS which was also very dangerous) is nailed and eliminated for ever.
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
That article said it all. In my opinion: Cummings and his glove puppet Johnson have much to answer for. :mad:
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No closed borders, no testing (unless you are royalty or celeb status), nowhere near enough beds, nowhere near enough ventilators, nowhere near enough doctors, nowhere near enough nurses, nowhere near enough police officers, nothing as yet for the self employed, no guidance and no control. It's not about political point scoring as was mentioned earlier, its about people f*****g dying.
 
mex said:
No closed borders, no testing (unless you are royalty or celeb status), nowhere near enough beds, nowhere near enough ventilators, nowhere near enough doctors, nowhere near enough nurses, nowhere near enough police officers, nothing as yet for the self employed, no guidance and no control. It's not about political point scoring as was mentioned earlier, its about people f*****g dying.
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Yes, but I have to disagree with you about “royalty. The press are playing their classic distraction game here. Whether Charles was eligible or not it’s one effing test and distracts from investigating the general supply of testing :(.
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
That article said it all. In my opinion: Cummings and his glove puppet Johnson have much to answer for. :mad:
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Of course we could always do things better with hindsight, and this is still ongoing, but we seem to be faring better than France, Spain and Italy so far if thats not tempting fate?
 
mex said:
No closed borders, no testing (unless you are royalty or celeb status), nowhere near enough beds, nowhere near enough ventilators, nowhere near enough doctors, nowhere near enough nurses, nowhere near enough police officers, nothing as yet for the self employed, no guidance and no control. It's not about political point scoring as was mentioned earlier, its about people f*****g dying.
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So what countries have absorbed this with no extra input into their health system? Who has 4,000 or so ventilation machines packed away just in case they may need them in the future? As far as I can see, every major country has issues, the Italian health system and the french is supposed to be good and they are struggling too - is that down to Cummings as well?

We will not know how good/bad they have been for a few more months - and if less people die in proportion to Italy, France, Spain, and other EU countries then they did well. If its on a par then they did what everyone else did, and if its worse then yes they got it wrong!
 
cambsno said:
So what countries have absorbed this with no extra input into their health system? Who has 4,000 or so ventilation machines packed away just in case they may need them in the future? As far as I can see, every major country has issues, the Italian health system and the french is supposed to be good and they are struggling too - is that down to Cummings as well?

We will not know how good/bad they have been for a few more months - and if less people die in proportion to Italy, France, Spain, and other EU countries then they did well. If its on a par then they did what everyone else did, and if its worse then yes they got it wrong!
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errrr Germany? look at the stats. We have managed to run our health system down so low that they are getting by on a shoe string with with volunteers and why? to give tax cuts to their mates,wake up mate .
 
cambsno said:
Of course we could always do things better with hindsight, and this is still ongoing, but we seem to be faring better than France, Spain and Italy so far if thats not tempting fate?
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Apparently the unusually warm spring in Spain was a significant contributor. It’s already an outside culture, but becomes even more so when the weather is good. More people having breakfast in cafés, more people dining together etc all helped to spread it.
 
mex said:
errrr Germany? look at the stats. We have managed to run our health system down so low that they are getting by on a shoe string with with volunteers and why? to give tax cuts to their mates,wake up mate .
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Ok, so one country is doing this better than us. What about all the other countries then?
 
Ricardodaforce said:
Apparently the unusually warm spring in Spain was a significant contributor. It’s already an outside culture, but becomes even more so when the weather is good. More people having breakfast in cafés, more people dining together etc all helped to spread it.
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Makes sense, along with the social physical contact and closer family ties, although we are a more populated nation than those IIRC (certainly compared to France and Spain).
 
mex said:
errrr Germany? look at the stats. We have managed to run our health system down so low that they are getting by on a shoe string with with volunteers and why? to give tax cuts to their mates,wake up mate .
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Germany have dealt with this with no additional input to their health system? Really?
 
cambsno said:
Ok, so one country is doing this better than us. What about all the other countries then?
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what about, what about,what about..........
 
mex said:
errrr Germany? look at the stats. We have managed to run our health system down so low that they are getting by on a shoe string with with volunteers and why? to give tax cuts to their mates,wake up mate .
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This could be a big factor why they are doing better:

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s main agency for disease control, the average age of those who have tested positive for coronavirus is 47 years old. In Italy, where the mortality rate is 9 per cent, the average age of sufferers is 63.

Experts believe that Germany’s major outbreaks stemmed from carnival celebrations and young people returning from ski trips in Italy and Austria. Elderly citizens are also less likely to live with younger members of the family than those in southern Europe.

We know that there will be lots of factors at play but it would make sense that if the average age of infection is lower, they are less likely to have health issues so be less likely to need ICU and so not affect the health system as much.
 
Cockney said:
Germany have dealt with this with no additional input to their health system? Really?
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Genuinely the Germans seem to be coping better than most....to the point that they've been accepting transfers from French hospitals to help relieve the strain across the border.
 
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