The virus. PPE. Part 1

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I've noticed an increase over the last few days in the number of passing planes that don't appear on Flightradar24, so I guess they're military.

There's one just now passing to the west of me heading south East.

I'm in North Staffs.
 
myotis said:
Do you have any additional info on the numbers you quote, I'm not sure I follow what they mean and how they relate to the towns.
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Extra info on the numbers - no, just caught sight of an internal NHS briefing document whilst between a joinery job & a portering job (I'm neither a joiner nor a porter)

The towns are those that most closely match the numbers - so 180k deaths is approximately every man, woman & child in Aberdeen, 360k everyone in Cardiff, etc.

Obviously spread over the whole country but lined up together it's a lot of people wherever they are.
 
Donnie said:
You completely ignore where i talk about continual evidence based practice as it suits your now obvious denial of anything other than your "logic".

I never said I felt insulted, I said your attitude is insulting. Only compounded by your pathetic attempt at calling me insecure, which Im not. Im well trained for my role, Im not unafraid believe me I don't want coronavirus, nor do I want my patients to get it which is why Im so careful from an infection control point of view, but I think I've laboured that point now several times and am just repeating myself and know you will yet again ignore it as it doesn't suit your narrative.



Ummmmm seriously? Im too close to caring for my patients that what? Im ignoring all the training and medical advice on how to care for them and help stop the spread? :rolleyes::rolleyes:



And there's that denial again because it doesn't suit your narrative. :cautious:
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Say hello to the ostrich while your there.
 
jakeblu said:
Your first post on here was to berate a member who works as a nurse in the NHS, for not listening to a guy, who works at Fords, on infection control!
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Yes I work at Ford, but part of my previous role at Ford was risk assessment, making sure things were safe for employees to carry out their work safely and as easily as possible. Constantly reviewing processes to see if further improvements can be made to improve the time to perform the work, without detriment to safety to employees and the quality of work.
Skills easily applicable to anything and anywhere.
 
hunnymonster said:
The towns are those that most closely match the numbers - so 180k deaths is approximately every man, woman & child in Aberdeen, 360k everyone in Cardiff, etc.
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So between 180k and 700k, it's certainly the sort of "spread" you might expect from a model, but still seems shockingly high, and a bit dangerous to read too much into it without being able to put it into context.

Based on the published model being used by the Government/NHS, these numbers would seem to best fit the "do nothing" predictions.
 
sphexx said:
More dodgy reasoning from you, If you look at the background it would seem that like many beaches there will be bottlenecks where people access the beach. No doubt you will say they may have arrived from the sea :( or rather you feel they may have :(.
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I only have my phone to view the photo, but I can't see the access points to the beach, how do you know there aren't any to the left out of view?
Because of the line of sight from which the photo is taken, it is quite easy to make it look crowded, but view it from above and there could well be gaps as there is in the foreground. As this is a photographic forum, I would have thought it would be easy to recognise something isn't always as it seems when taken from a certain angle.
 
hunnymonster said:
Extra info on the numbers - no, just caught sight of an internal NHS briefing document whilst between a joinery job & a portering job (I'm neither a joiner nor a porter)

The towns are those that most closely match the numbers - so 180k deaths is approximately every man, woman & child in Aberdeen, 360k everyone in Cardiff, etc.

Obviously spread over the whole country but lined up together it's a lot of people wherever they are.
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Hard to comment on an unpublished document seen in passing, but the high end of that range would imply that most of the population becomes infected (i.e. suppression fails completely) and that the infection fatality ratio is significantly higher than the 0.9% assumed by the modellers at Imperial - e.g., there could be 700k deaths if about 70% of the population are infected, and 1.5% of the infected die. Even the low end is not much less than the 250k calculated for the (now abandoned) mitigation strategy, where herd immunity is presumed to develop by natural infection.
 
nilagin said:
I only have my phone to view the photo, but I can't see the access points to the beach, how do you know there aren't any to the left out of view?
Because of the line of sight from which the photo is taken, it is quite easy to make it look crowded, but view it from above and there could well be gaps as there is in the foreground. As this is a photographic forum, I would have thought it would be easy to recognise something isn't always as it seems when taken from a certain angle.
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Read what I wrote, I understand th point you are making but it’s just supposition on your part so I wrote ‘it would seem that like many beaches” which may be a guess on my part but I flagged it up for you. Many, many beaches, possibly all popular ones, have limited access.
 
nilagin said:
Yes I work at Ford, but part of my previous role at Ford was risk assessment, making sure things were safe for employees to carry out their work safely and as easily as possible. Constantly reviewing processes to see if further improvements can be made to improve the time to perform the work, without detriment to safety to employees and the quality of work.
Skills easily applicable to anything and anywhere.
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Since you have experience as a risk assessor I wonder if you ever pointed out the basic flaw in Ford‘s car seat design and what did they reply?
 
nilagin said:
Yes I work at Ford, but part of my previous role at Ford was risk assessment, making sure things were safe for employees to carry out their work safely and as easily as possible. Constantly reviewing processes to see if further improvements can be made to improve the time to perform the work, without detriment to safety to employees and the quality of work.
Skills easily applicable to anything and anywhere.
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Not really in a medical arena though.
Or anywhere else where expertise is needed to sensibly evaluate.
 
Dave70D said:
The beach shot looked like Bondi, which was later closed by the police. Even Scotland police have been going round to tell the landlords to close.
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I thought so too FWIW.
 
Marc said:
No words

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...uVkcGzeYIUUhFBJAXXW293tflRjWO7bIXuxg8_zprUknI
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Uncle Fester said:
Unbelievable.

You can clearly see the potential for the large scale breakdown of law and order over the coming months.

I sincerely hope that BJ & Co are planning for such a situation now and won’t be taken by surprise should widespread disorder occur.
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I‘ve thought for a while now that the virus itself is only going to be part of our worries. The selfish, antisocial morons will be roaming the streets instead of fighting in the pubs.

Boris. Lockdown - Army - Big guns. Do it now before it’s too late.
 
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sphexx said:
Read what I wrote, I understand th point you are making but it’s just supposition on your part so I wrote ‘it would seem that like many beaches” which may be a guess on my part but I flagged it up for you. Many, many beaches, possibly all popular ones, have limited access.
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And what would be the sensible thing to do in those cases, avoid the access points as you will be disturbed by a constant flow of people walking past you as they walk on and off the beach. Granted you will get the odd family that will park up close to you, just like the random car driver that parks next to you even though you are in the far corner of a car park there are hundreds of empty spaces elsewhere. But on the whole people will always find a reasonable big space and leave acceptable room to those around them .
 
nilagin said:
And what would be the sensible thing to do in those cases, avoid the access points as you will be disturbed by a constant flow of people walking past you as they walk on and off the beach. Granted you will get the odd family that will park up close to you, just like the random car driver that parks next to you even though you are in the far corner of a car park there are hundreds of empty spaces elsewhere. But on the whole people will always find a reasonable big space and leave acceptable room to those around them .
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How do you access the beach if you are avoiding the access points?
 
jakeblu said:
I'm guessing that it might have initially seen as a good idea, get out to the mountains where there'll hardly be anyone. Seems half the country had the same idea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
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I guess it's akin to panic buying in a way, it's a nice sunny day, so you go off out into the middle of nowhere away from civilisation to enjoy the sun before a possible lockdown and find that everyone else has had the exact same idea.
 
Dave70D said:
Am I right in thinking, if it gets warmer everywhere then that would help with the virus ?
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nope, this was mooted and muddled by Boris in the initial messages to the public to explain why delay into the summer time would be beneficial. The actual reason was to allow those with normal flu to clear the pressurised NHS so in the summer there'd be less strain. So in truth the temperature has little effect on the spread of the virus unfortunately.
 
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Dave70D said:
Am I right in thinking, if it gets warmer everywhere then that would help with the virus ?
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No, it’s spreading in tropical countries too. That idea comes fro our flu epidemics in winter (for various and maybe uncertain reasons) but this not flu so it may be quite different ;(. There are too many unknowns so far — not just ‘known unknowns’ but possibly ‘unknown unknowns’ as the immortal phrase has it :)
 
Ricardodaforce said:
So if the temperatures were to be, say, like those in Southern Spain?
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Donnie said:
nope, this was mooted and muddled by Boris in the initial messages to the public to explain why delay into the summer time would be beneficial. The actual reason was to allow those with normal flu to clear the pressurised NHS so in the summer there'd be less strain. So in truth the temperature has little effect on the spread of the virus unfortunately.
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Thank you both.
 
sphexx said:
No, it’s spreading in tropical countries too. That idea comes fro our flu epidemics in winter (for various and maybe uncertain reasons) but this not flu so it may be quite different ;(. There are too many unknowns so far — not just ‘known unknowns’ but possibly ‘unknown unknowns’ as the immortal phrase has it :)
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OH yes, I was thinking it like be like the Flu but yes I can see now that hot weather won`t help.
 
sphexx said:
How do you access the beach if you are avoiding the access points?
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Seriously?
You access the beach and move away from the access point. You don't sit on top of it.
When there are no seats left on the bus, do you stand by the door so everyone else getting on has to walk by you or do you move away towards the back of the bus and give others room?
 
Dave70D said:
OH yes, I was thinking it like be like the Flu but yes I can see now that hot weather won`t help.
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Well it might, who knows? There is usually less pressure on NHS in summer normally because our winter brings illnesses but I think if that happens this year it won’t be noticeable if the nhs is already overwhelmed :( . Not all hot weather is the same too eg some very humid, some dry, some hot nights, some frosty nights.
 
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