The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Just to try and lighten this thread a bit here are a few short clips of how many towns and cities across Italy are helping to raise the spirits of residents. Humanity at its best. I take my hat off to them. In one clip a wonderful tenor sings Nessun Dorma from his balcony.

https://seenthis.net/sites/1781387

Now..if it got like that in small communities in Wales....lol. I make sure my wife and I watch this anthem before the game kicks off...in surround sound, too. It seems that so many Welsh people have really good singing voices. The language should never be allowed to die out and as far as I know it's at risk.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwdZOHm8r-Y


or. Calan Lân
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYOxBncgmLQ
 
woof woof said:
Deep sigh...

I can only speak about companies and products I've been involved with but if this is what this thread is coming too, I'm out.
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Sorry if I’ve upset you but I was just responding to your statement that only the Chinese were fakers :(.
There have been several TV comments comparing this appeal to what happened here in WW1 & WW2. I can think of the wooden pips in fake jam (WW1) and weren't there dodgy batteries in WW2? However technology has moved on and Inguess there are more possibilities now for crooks ;(.
 
nilagin said:
Just as well they haven't shut them yet then.
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Yet.

woof woof said:
The main point I'm trying to make is that if ventilators or anything else are at a premium I'm quietly confident they could be made, it'll cost more but I'm pretty sure it can be done and done quickly.
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Well, you certainly have more confidence than me in that respect.


sphexx said:
And it might spark some lateral thinking. I don’t know the details, and no doubt they have complex control systems, but isn‘t the underlying mechanism quite simple?
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ventilators these days are anything but simple, it's not a simple case of them just breathing in and out for a person.
 
I've just rewatched Hancock on Marr this morning being asked and challenged on having enough staff to run these large number of ventlilators and his reply was there were of course plenty of medical staff by getting recently retired and cancelling some jobs to free them up. The man is deluded.
 
It’s turning nasty now if this correct (sounds plausible but that sort of story does even if untrue):

“The Trump administration has offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German media have reported.”
and;
“On 11 March, CureVac released a statement that its CEO, the US citizen Daniel Menichella, was unexpectedly leaving the firm and would be replaced by the company’s founder, Ingmar Hoerr.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
 
sphexx said:
It’s turning nasty now if this correct (sounds plausible but that sort of story does even if untrue):

“The Trump administration has offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German media have reported.”
and;
“On 11 March, CureVac released a statement that its CEO, the US citizen Daniel Menichella, was unexpectedly leaving the firm and would be replaced by the company’s founder, Ingmar Hoerr.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine
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I'm sure I watched an interview this morning where it stated that was/is no vaccine for it yet? I would obviously stand corrected.


Donnie said:
I've just rewatched Hancock on Marr this morning being asked and challenged on having enough staff to run these large number of ventlilators and his reply was there were of course plenty of medical staff by getting recently retired and cancelling some jobs to free them up. The man is deluded.
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Over the last 10 years or so this government has been hell-bent on reducing the NHS, 17000 beds gone, now this s*** turns up and we are short of hospital beds...........who'd a thunk it?
 
Indeed, and now there's a positive case in a hospital not too far from me, guess what, not a single member of staff has been fit tested for the proper PPE masks.

Edit to clarify that nona single member of staff on that ward
 
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nilagin said:
Been to Wembley many times and Twickenham once, always by car. :)
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Just the opposite for me - been to Wembley once and Twickenham many times. Even by car a number of folks are cooked up in an enclosed space and most in my experience arrive at the venue by public transport. It almost seemed as if the health experts thought the spectators at outdoor events teleported in :)

Dave
 
Tringa said:
Just the opposite for me - been to Wembley once and Twickenham many times. Even by car a number of folks are cooked up in an enclosed space and most in my experience arrive at the venue by public transport. It almost seemed as if the health experts thought the spectators at outdoor events teleported in :)

Dave
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Last night whilst out in Cardiff city centre the pubs and bars were packed with Scottish fans who travelled down for the rugby, only for it to be cancelled less than 24 hours before kick off, the majority of travelling supporters would have already been in town long before the game was abandoned.
 
mex said:
I'm sure I watched an interview this morning where it stated that was/is no vaccine for it yet? I would obviously stand corrected.




Over the last 10 years or so this government has been hell-bent on reducing the NHS, 17000 beds gone, now this s*** turns up and we are short of hospital beds...........who'd a thunk it?
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We'll ignore the 50 odd thousand that the previous party got rid of in the 10yrs before that shall we?
 
Jeremy Warner in the Torygraph
"..not to put too finer point on it, from an entirely disinterested economic perspective, the Covid-19 might even prove mildly beneficial in the long term by disproportionately culling elderly dependents .." Who'd want this toss-pot as a grandchild?
 
Is the latest idea ("Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to shield them from coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.") for dealing with coronavirus a poorly thought out plan?

I might be wrong but it seems while most of those who have died of the virus in the UK were over 60, ALL have had underlying health problems.

Wouldn't it be better for this new plan to be directed towards those over 70 who also have other health problems, rather than everyone over 70?

Dave

BTW does anyone know of a reliable source of data that shows UK virus deaths by age and if there was an underlying health problem?
 
nilagin said:
It doesn't really matter if the over 70's have underlying health issues or not, they are only suggesting they should self isolate, it won't make any difference to them either way.

I don't know about a UK specific breakdown of UK deaths, but this gives a breakdown of global deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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Thanks for the link, Neil.

I think it matters because the BBC site indicates it is likely to be more than suggesting they should self isolate. The article says "Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home (my emphasis)

I accept these might not have been Mat Hancock's actual words but it seems some, ie those with no other health issues, might be told to stay at home when their risk from the virus is low, as one of the tables in the link indicates.

Dave
 
mex said:
I'm sure I watched an interview this morning where it stated that was/is no vaccine for it yet? I would obviously stand corrected.
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No, you are correct, I think Trump may believe they are likely to the first to produce a vaccine or, more likely, he’s making the same offer to all producers (if the story is even true :().
 
Cockney said:
This is good.
View: https://youtu.be/nl6tTwxzCi8
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It is good, but not necessarily accurate, it makes a lot of assumptions both on herd immunity and that the population as a whole will effectively get bored after a few weeks and reinfect everyone all over again. I believe that evidence for this is lacking and has probably led to the outcry by the 200 scientists / doctors and the opposition parties wanting to see the modelling and evidence ?
 
Tringa said:
BTW does anyone know of a reliable source of data that shows UK virus deaths by age and if there was an underlying health problem?
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Just seen a story online from the paper everyone loves to hate. A 59yr old man died this weekend and had a heart condition. He is believed to be the UK 's youngest death.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Why?
He's only making a point that not all fakes are from overseas.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/...r-protection-test-kits-coronavirus/index.html

'US Customs and Border Protection seized a package containing suspected counterfeit coronavirus test kits arriving from the United Kingdom at Los Angeles International Airport on Thursday, according to a news release by the agency on Saturday.

"CBP officers discovered six plastic bags containing various vials, while conducting an enforcement examination of a parcel manifested as "Purified Water Vials" with a declared value of $196.81. A complete examination of the shipment, led to the finding of vials filled with a white liquid and labeled "Corona Virus 2019nconv (COVID-19)" and "Virus1 Test Kit."
The shipment was turned over to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for analysis, the agency said in the news release.'
 
nilagin said:
We'll ignore the 50 odd thousand that the previous party got rid of in the 10yrs before that shall we?
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Your stats are wrong and overstate the figure by about 92%. The figure given by Theresa May on 22 February 2017 was 25,000 but the actual number was about 26,000 between 2003/04 and 2009/10.
 
Another deeply sceptical view of the UK strategy from William Hanage, professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard :

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

'Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them. When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.
...
This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak. The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago. Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa. The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy. Nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand. This will not pass you by; this is not a tornado, it is a hurricane. Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself.'
 
Donnie said:
It is good, but not necessarily accurate, it makes a lot of assumptions both on herd immunity and that the population as a whole will effectively get bored after a few weeks and reinfect everyone all over again. I believe that evidence for this is lacking and has probably led to the outcry by the 200 scientists / doctors and the opposition parties wanting to see the modelling and evidence ?
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I think its an excellent representation of the CSOs comments in the press conference.
 
Softshoe said:
Your stats are wrong and overstate the figure by about 92%. The figure given by Theresa May on 22 February 2017 was 25,000 but the actual number was about 26,000 between 2003/04 and 2009/10.
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Looks like the duration was overstated as well, so I guess that balances it out from a certain perspective lol
 
nilagin said:
Other than the fact we aren't in lockdown, I am confused by all the comments that our govt are doing this wrong.
I can't find the statistics again at the moment, but they were in here somewhere. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
But it showed that in terms of the number of tests carried out per country, the UK was ranked at around 3rd or 4th and going by the number of tests performed in the UK that someone has posted on here recently(may have been in a tweet) that number has almost doubled.
We have had more tests performed in the UK combined with a lower confirmed number of cases. But some countries have a lower number of tests performed and a higher number of confirmed cases.
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This is the page:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Based on the number of tests per head of population, the UK ranks 7th. South Korea, in relative and absolute terms, has tested about ten times more people than we have, and our current testing criteria are very narrow - hospital patients with symptoms and contacts of known cases. Not even NHS staff are being tested, which means that someone who just has a bad cold might have to self-isolate, while someone else who is infected but showing minimum symptoms may still be seeing patients.
 
Cockney said:
I think its an excellent representation of the CSOs comments in the press conference.
Click to expand...

Yes it is good representation of whats been said, Im not arguing that.
 
Retune said:
Another deeply sceptical view of the UK strategy from William Hanage, professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard :

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

'Your house is on fire, and the people whom you have trusted with your care are not trying to put it out. Even though they knew it was coming, and could see what happened to the neighbours as they were overwhelmed with terrifying speed, the UK government has inexplicably chosen to encourage the flames, in the misguided notion that somehow they will be able to control them. When I first heard about this, I could not believe it. I research and teach the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health. My colleagues here in the US, even as they are reeling from the stumbling response of the Donald Trump administration to the crisis, assumed that reports of the UK policy were satire – an example of the wry humour for which the country is famed. But they are all too real.
...
This virus is capable of shutting down countries. You should not want to be the next after Wuhan, Iran, Italy or Spain. In those places, the healthcare systems have broken down. In Italy, the choices of whom to save and whom to allow to die are real. You should instead look to the example of South Korea, which, through a combination of intense surveillance and social distancing, appears to have gained some semblance of control over the virus. We can learn from South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan, all of which have so far done a good job mitigating the worst outcomes despite having reported cases early in the pandemic, and in the case of South Korea, suffering a substantial outbreak. The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate. What this looks like is strong social distancing. Anyone who can work from home, should. People who do not yet work from home should be encouraged to do so. Employers should guarantee sick pay, including for contacts of known cases, and do everything they can to discourage the practice of “presenteeism”. You should not shake hands. Not with anyone. You should wash your hands for 20 seconds several times a day and whenever you enter your home (or someone else’s home). Call a halt to large gatherings. Educate people about masks and how they should be reserved for the medical professionals who need them. All this and more should have started weeks ago. Deciding whether to close schools is hard; they do so much more than just education. But this is a pandemic, and so you should expect they will be shut sooner or later. In Hong Kong, they have been shut for weeks. If you hear any talking head on TV explain that kids don’t get sick, remember that doesn’t mean kids cannot be infected and transmit. It’s probably a good idea to hold off on visits to Nana and Grandpa. The most fundamental function of a government is to keep its people safe. It is from this that it derives its authority, the confidence of the people and its legitimacy. Nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand. This will not pass you by; this is not a tornado, it is a hurricane. Don’t panic, but do prepare. If your government won’t help you, do it yourself.'
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Maybe he should concentrate on his own country?
 
the black fox said:
I think that HM government were hoping to keep a lid on it till warmer weather brought a relief , but the media have well and truly f***ed that one up . It’s just caused panic in the shops .. personally I think in the next couple of weeks we will have lockdown and media restrictions and also the army what’s left of it on the streets .

Lifestyles are going to have to change after this is over and that’s worldwide not just in the u.k .. also the way this is spreading is making me wonder a bit I would have expected after China that the Asian and African nations would have been the worst affected but the reverse seems true apart from South Korea ..

its almost like it’s hitting a targeted audience ? The more I look at the demographics of this the more I’m beginning to wonder if it’s a genetically man made virus . more questions than answers here
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A few weeks ago, conspiracy theorists were claiming that the virus was specifically targeted against Asians. Now that the pandemic is in full swing in Europe, they seem to have reversed their position. The genetic sequence of the virus has been intensely scrutinised by experts from all over the world, and no evidence of genetic manipulation has been found. It looks exactly like a virus that has diverged from viruses found in other animals (especially bats) by normal evolutionary processes, which is exactly what it is. If you're wondering why some countries appear to have a better grip on the pandemic than others, take a look at the policies they are using to tackle it.
 
nilagin said:
Just seen a story online from the paper everyone loves to hate. A 59yr old man died this weekend and had a heart condition. He is believed to be the UK 's youngest death.
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According to social media, his wife had posted that they had just returned from the Canaries on a holiday and he had a heart attack a few years ago. It sounds like 'had a underlying health condition' could in theory be used for many cases resulting in death as many people over the age of 50 have something wrong with them, but you wouldn't expect them to die from 'normal flu' unless much older.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Maybe he should concentrate on his own country?
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Why? A global pandemic is a global problem. Some approaches are going to be much more successful than others, and when one country appears to be doing something right, the others should pay attention. He's not a fan of Trump's 'stumbling response' either.
 
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Retune said:
A few weeks ago, conspiracy theorists were claiming that the virus was specifically targeted against Asians. Now that the pandemic is in full swing in Europe, they seem to have reversed their position. The genetic sequence of the virus has been intensely scrutinised by experts from all over the world, and no evidence of genetic manipulation has been found. It looks exactly like a virus that has diverged from viruses found in other animals (especially bats) by normal evolutionary processes, which is exactly what it is. If you're wondering why some countries appear to have a better grip on the pandemic than others, take a look at the policies they are using to tackle it.
Click to expand...

Its not one size fits all though. Taking all the factors , including socio-economic and timing within the development cycle, each country needs a bespoke plan.
 
William Hanage said:
I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire
Click to expand...

William Hanage said:
The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself.
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But if the lockdown model is followed then there will be no immunity among the population - patently obvious that prevention by isolation stops a majority becoming immune and leaves them vulnerable to any later re-emergence. Herd immunity is natural in a situation like this - the bit that's un-natural is taking care that the old & weak don't die at the same time everyone else is becoming immune.
 
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Retune said:
A few weeks ago, conspiracy theorists were claiming that the virus was specifically targeted against Asians. Now that the pandemic is in full swing in Europe, they seem to have reversed their position. The genetic sequence of the virus has been intensely scrutinised by experts from all over the world, and no evidence of genetic manipulation has been found. It looks exactly like a virus that has diverged from viruses found in other animals (especially bats) by normal evolutionary processes, which is exactly what it is. If you're wondering why some countries appear to have a better grip on the pandemic than others, take a look at the policies they are using to tackle it.
Click to expand...
Keep thinking back to that image of someone eating bat soup in China :puke:
 
ancient_mariner said:
But if the lockdown model is followed then there will be no immunity among the population - patently obvious that prevention by isolation stops a majority becoming immune and leaves them vulnerable to any later re-emergence. Herd immunity is natural in a situation like this - the bit that's un-natural is taking care that the old & weak don't die at the same time everyone else is becoming immune.
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Funny I thought part of the plan was to develop a vaccine to combat it and tackle that later reemergence. As for herd immunity being natural? Of those that have already recovered have you seen any reports or data to show they are now immune from reinfection? I was under the impression it's too new a virus to know exactly whats going to happen from an immunity point of view?
 
Donnie said:
Funny I thought part of the plan was to develop a vaccine to combat it and tackle that later reemergence. As for herd immunity being natural? Of those that have already recovered have you seen any reports or data to show they are now immune from reinfection? I was under the impression it's too new a virus to know exactly whats going to happen from an immunity point of view?
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In general you don't get the same strain of a virus twice, although I accept that in this case its not yet proven.
 
In this case, nobody really knows:

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-response-herd-immunity-and-sars-cov-2

“SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus in humans and there is still much that we need to learn about how it affects the human immune system. Because it is so new, we do not yet know how long any protection generated through infection will last. Some other viruses in the Coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds, tend to induce immunity that is relatively short lived, at around three months. However, these viruses have co-evolved with the human immune system over thousands of years meaning they may well have developed methods to manipulate our immune responses. With the novel SARS-CoV-2, the situation may be very different but we urgently need more research looking at the immune responses of people who have recovered from infection to be sure.”
 
Tringa said:
Is the latest idea ("Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to shield them from coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.") for dealing with coronavirus a poorly thought out plan?

I might be wrong but it seems while most of those who have died of the virus in the UK were over 60, ALL have had underlying health problems.

Wouldn't it be better for this new plan to be directed towards those over 70 who also have other health problems, rather than everyone over 70?

Dave

BTW does anyone know of a reliable source of data that shows UK virus deaths by age and if there was an underlying health problem?
Click to expand...

I would say that most people over 80 (and many over 70 ) will have underlying health problems by default (or at least not be as strong as the rest of us).
 
We will know in time if the criticism of the governments actions is justified or not, and while this is a global pandemic with big risks for those over 70 with health issues, anyone else think the media is causing far worse issues, encouraging people to panic buy and raising they alarm levels. Lets be clear, those under 50/60 in decent health have very little to fear from this. The public seem to be acting like idiots so far!
 
Peter10d said:
Keep thinking back to that image of someone eating bat soup in China :puke:
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It turned out that the infamous bat eating videos were shot on the Pacific island of Palau, where apparently a bat dish is a delicacy. But the closest relative of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a bat virus isolated in China. A bit of the SARS-CoV-2 genome is closer to a virus found in pangolins, so maybe related viruses are 'recombining' (swapping pieces of their genomes) when infecting the same 'intermediate host' (which might be the pangolin). This would be similar to the situation in the original SARS outbreak, where the intermediate host was a civet.
 
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