We are at 115 cases (Yesterday)
On January 23 when China locked down Wuhan was at 571.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ation-reports/20200123-sitrep-3-2019-ncov.pdf
At even at lockdown, the number in China still shot up to 80,000+. It has taken about 6 weeks for them for this to drop to now 150+ cases increase a day.
With no containment and only advising people to wash hands, which let's face it, I think this will get through to less than half the people, 10% at best. Now think of the number of infections and death without containment.
I would think there is a realistic possibility that we will hit 100,000 infected by Easter continuing the way we are, "business as usual" tactic.
This is just a guess going by China's numbers, numbers with a lockdown in place.