The virus. PPE. Part 1

Status
Not open for further replies.
Seems to have been a further surge in the number of cases in North Italy (1128). That is almost four times the rest of Europe. A significant number of European infections are linked to people who have returned from North Italy The Italian health service is ranked amongst the best in the world, but infection containment systems does not appear to be adequate for the current problem.
 
ancient_mariner said:
Thanks for posting the link.

I'd heard that the replication of RNA was unreliable, but that was a throwaway comment from someone who deals with a lot of viruses, and compared with flavis etc it may be sloppy but still 'good enough' to keep mutations down.
Click to expand...

Yes, RNA viruses in general are notorious for poor replication fidelity and very frequent mutations. CoVs probably have to do better than average as they have larger and more complex genomes than other RNA viruses (about 3x the size of a flavi), so too many mutations could be deleterious - more cost than adaptive benefit. But they're still orders of magnitude below the fidelity of DNA-based cellular organisms, and there's enough diversity after 3 months to be helpful in tracking the outbreak (https://nextstrain.org is a very nice site for this).

ancient_mariner said:
As you suggest, decline of immunity shouldn't be happening yet, rather IgG output should be building up nicely. It would seem far more likely, if the virus hasn't mutated, that they've been immunocompromised somehow. Perhaps they're just a poor/limited responder and a natural candidate for Darwin's selection process, however I'm also puzzled that the Dr. who gave first warning about the virus died since IIRC he wasn't in one of the natural risk groups, unless he was given a little 'help'.
Click to expand...

He's not the only young medic to have died - maybe just bad luck (in the large study of cases from China there were deaths in all age groups except young children, just many more in older patients). Or perhaps they are getting particularly large doses of virus on the 'front line'?

ancient_mariner said:
Those 'balanced opinions' are a bit like an engineer trying to deal with a claim that someone in Japan has managed to make an internal combustion engine run on tapwater - you know the facts as presented can't be true, so there's something missing in the story.

Likely we'll never know the real story, but several things come to mind:
The only 'diagnostic' test at the moment is PCR, and that's very susceptible to contamination and artifacts, so the patient may have had a fever and given a false positive reading, then been placed with CoV patients where they picked up the virus.
If the first test was a true positive, were they given another PCR test before being released to prove they were clear of infection, or did the doctors just wait until their symptoms cleared before releasing them.
They are genetically unable to mount an effective immune response, and therefore may harbour the virus and not be able to clear the infection.

Reinfection in such a short space of time would defy many of the laws of immunology and survival. That doesn't mean there couldn't be a novel way for the virus to dodge the immune system, but there's no evidence yet that these viruses can do that and there doesn't seem to be anything mysterious in the viral genome.
Click to expand...

I also wonder about false negatives in the testing, especially if there were low levels of virus at end of treatment, or the lower respiratory tract wasn't sampled - maybe the virus was never fully cleared in the first place.

ancient_mariner said:
I'm running an assay today to see if we have an antibody that cross-reacts with one of the CoV spike proteins - hopefully it will be positive and provide another tool for those developing better tests to detect infection.
Click to expand...
Great stuff! Are you guys planning to make both the antigen and the antibody available commercially?
 
Retune said:
Great stuff! Are you guys planning to make both the antigen and the antibody available commercially?
Click to expand...

The antigens went on sale about 2 1/2 weeks ago, and the antibody was externally source although we do re-sell it (anti-SARS E2). It cross reacts moderately well with the spike 2 protein (it will detect protein coated on a microplate well at around 1ngml/100pg per well) in a quick and dirty first-look assay without any optimisation and commercial reagents.
 
Retune said:
Looks like there are now 2 cases (Essex and Surrey) who picked it up in the UK from unknown sources, suggesting community transmission is underway.
Click to expand...

Based on that it's either enormously more infectious than first thought or a lot more people don't show symptoms than those who do.
 
ancient_mariner said:
Based on that it's either enormously more infectious than first thought or a lot more people don't show symptoms than those who do.
Click to expand...
thats if and a bloody big IF we have been told the truth the whole truth etc . which I very much doubt . the Chinese reaction to this is what we should be basing our assumptions on total lockdown of cities and regions unheard of in modern times .I do think this is disease X that they have feared for years and its certainly shaping up that way .another month and it will be unstoppable
 
Of the 12 additional cases today :-
3 were close contacts of a known case
6 were just back from Italy
2 were just back from Iran
1 source of infection unknown.

Immense thanks to Toni for his posts. Absolutely superb.
 
arclight said:
Immense thanks to Toni for his posts. Absolutely superb.
Click to expand...

That's very kind, but I've not done or said anything 'special' - just lucky to be in a place where we've some smart cookies whose job it is to work on this stuff.
 
the black fox said:
another month and it will be unstoppable
Click to expand...


Don't you think that it was pretty much unstoppable by the time the news hit the West?

And echoing Doug's thanks for a voice of sanity and insight.
 
Its not the Chinese take-a-ways etc you need to be worried about. Its the Italian pizza deliveries that are a worry. Watch out for Deliveroo, Dolminos etc. More cases from Italy than China[emoji16][emoji40][emoji40][emoji40][emoji40][emoji40][emoji40]
 
my next door neighbours are Italian , used to talk to them that ended last week :D

:wacky::wacky::wacky:
 
ancient_mariner said:
The antigens went on sale about 2 1/2 weeks ago, and the antibody was externally source although we do re-sell it (anti-SARS E2). It cross reacts moderately well with the spike 2 protein (it will detect protein coated on a microplate well at around 1ngml/100pg per well) in a quick and dirty first-look assay without any optimisation and commercial reagents.
Click to expand...
Oh I see, it's an existing SARS-CoV antibody to a region that's well conserved in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 virus)? Useful for your purposes but I guess this implies that anyone wanting to develop (say) a serological screening assay for antibodies to the new virus might want to express a more specific fragment of the Spike antigen that doesn't cross react with antibodies to both? Though as the original SARS-CoV is no longer circulating in humans and there were only ~8k cases, that might not make much difference at the moment.

ancient_mariner said:
Based on that it's either enormously more infectious than first thought or a lot more people don't show symptoms than those who do.
Click to expand...

I'd bet on the latter (or at least mild cases easily confused with any number of other things). It was probably quietly circulating in Italy for some time before it blew up. Apparently at least one of the new UK cases was detected by a centre that was screening all cases of flu-like illnesses for CoV, not just travellers to affected regions and their contacts, so it might otherwise have been missed. There's also a case in China that might have been exported from the UK if it wasn't picked up in transit - the patient reports colleagues in Bristol were ill before they departed for China and became ill on arrival. The US has taken a long time to get its act together, going with what turned out to be a problematic test kit from the CDC that was deployed too narrowly, so there may be many more cases there than we know about.
 
Retune said:
Oh I see, it's an existing SARS-CoV antibody to a region that's well conserved in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 virus)? Useful for your purposes but I guess this implies that anyone wanting to develop (say) a serological screening assay for antibodies to the new virus might want to express a more specific fragment of the Spike antigen that doesn't cross react with antibodies to both? Though as the original SARS-CoV is no longer circulating in humans and there were only ~8k cases, that might not make much difference at the moment.
Click to expand...

I dont think there'd be enough immunity left in any population to make SARS cross-reactivity an issue, and IF there were pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies then they might even be protective. Antibody screening *should* be relatively simple, with an antigen down system followed by patient sample and then anti-Ig-HRP or similar. Perhaps otherwise coat with anti-human mu chain to capture IgM, then probe with labelled antigen. Hopefully it's not like making assays for Zika, where everyone in the area has already had Dengue or Chickungunya and are loaded to the gills with cross-reactive antibody.

I'd bet on the latter (or at least mild cases easily confused with any number of other things). It was probably quietly circulating in Italy for some time before it blew up. Apparently at least one of the new UK cases was detected by a centre that was screening all cases of flu-like illnesses for CoV, not just travellers to affected regions and their contacts, so it might otherwise have been missed. There's also a case in China that might have been exported from the UK if it wasn't picked up in transit - the patient reports colleagues in Bristol were ill before they departed for China and became ill on arrival. The US has taken a long time to get its act together, going with what turned out to be a problematic test kit from the CDC that was deployed too narrowly, so there may be many more cases there than we know about.
Click to expand...

I heard about that first batch of kits from the CDC on Friday, and the overly narrow deployment. Makes me slightly amazed, really, but that could be any developed nation just fumbling the ball when they should have caught it. At least the guys at PHE seem really good.

Y'know it seems really funny talking about work here. :)
 
the black fox said:
Oh no gloucestshire is now under quarantine then . .... are there any places there to hide ... up here we have a ex military mustard gas factory and where they developed the atomic bomb in WW2 big bomb proof anti radiation doors to ,might go and hide in the caves there and not come out for six months
Click to expand...


Oh,no... don't do that. I'm sure I can speak for those who frequent the Birds forum and the Nature - Wild and Free forum... we'd miss your photos :D

I see the first case in Wales is in Swansea.
 
One case confirmed near me. tomorrow I will be putting on my facemask ,just to be safe.





From the dust as I do some woodturning.

Otherwise, no change here, even if the nearest hospital (with it's pod) is the other side of the village.
 
JohnC6 said:
Oh,no... don't do that. I'm sure I can speak for those who frequent the Birds forum and the Nature - Wild and Free forum... we'd miss your photos :D

I see the first case in Wales is in Swansea.
Click to expand...
I’m up the other top end luckily so far ..

Just heard on the grapevine though ,they have put Rhyl under quarantine

Not because of the virus ,but because it’s a s***hole
 
munch said:
One case confirmed near me. tomorrow I will be putting on my facemask ,just to be safe.





From the dust as I do some woodturning.

Otherwise, no change here, even if the nearest hospital (with it's pod) is the other side of the village.
Click to expand...
Where is near you?
 
Ilkley
 
ancient_mariner said:
Makes me slightly amazed, really, but that could be any developed nation just fumbling the ball when they should have caught it.
Click to expand...

This doesn't look good ("This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks ... I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China ... Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. "):

View: https://BANNED/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426
 
Last edited:
JohnC6 said:
China is a worry when it comes to international co-operation for the greater good.
Click to expand...
This does the Chinese Government no credit:

View: https://BANNED/Nectar_Gan/status/1233449787069911040
 
I just realized this thing will certainly have terrible economic consequences for me personally. Presuming either quarantine starts or even people get scared enough I will be left without photography work and money to pay for everything. Not sure what to do really.
I may look for alternative work in some lab or something but at this moment I'm not too sure how likely that would succeed
 
Retune said:
This does the Chinese Government no credit:

View: https://BANNED/Nectar_Gan/status/1233449787069911040
Click to expand...

This is beyond sickening. Bloody CHI COMS!!!!
 
LongLensPhotography said:
This is beyond sickening. Bloody CHI COMS!!!!
Click to expand...
I don’t think they can be described as Communists these days ;), though I understand why you are upset. These cover-ups by China have interesting parallels with Trumps attempts to conceal the effects of the virus and other things too, environmental protections and so on :(.
 
LongLensPhotography said:
I just realized this thing will certainly have terrible economic consequences for me personally. Presuming either quarantine starts or even people get scared enough I will be left without photography work and money to pay for everything. Not sure what to do really.
I may look for alternative work in some lab or something but at this moment I'm not too sure how likely that would succeed
Click to expand...
The only impact on me I am concerned about is if they start banning large gatherings, I have tickets booked for several gigs throughout the year. One of which has already been cancelled and rescheduled twice. Hopefully they will get it contained before then.
 
sphexx said:
I don’t think they can be described as Communists these days ;), though I understand why you are upset. These cover-ups by China have interesting parallels with Trumps attempts to conceal the effects of the virus and other things too, environmental protections and so on :(.
Click to expand...

Yes, I think this is probably the dumbest thing Trump is doing right now, or to be more precise being given very bad advice on the issue by CDC and all advisers. I will however commend his decision a while back to stop travel from China and now Iran and poss Italy; sadly it wasn't enough and sadly other countries including UK didn't follow the lead. This was the only chance to contain it.

Maybe their plan is to let it run rampant like a wildfire and preserve economy as far as possible but clearly that goal is already not working. I guess at some point it just won't matter much if it spreads slightly faster or slower, other than number of available hospital places for those really sick.

re China they call themselves Communists, but probably they now more closely fit repressive autocratic nazi-like regime or even a ruthless empire like they once were. It's all bad news one way or another, and just a game of words...

P.S. Any more info on the Gloucestershire case? It's pretty much next doo to me.
 
Last edited:
Retune said:
This doesn't look good ("This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks ... I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China ... Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. "):

View: https://BANNED/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link - useful information.
 
Retune said:
This doesn't look good ("This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks ... I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China ... Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. "):

View: https://BANNED/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426
Click to expand...
Pity it’s not Washington DC, might have got Trump’s attention better ;(
 
LongLensPhotography said:
Yes, I think this is probably the dumbest thing Trump is doing right now, or to be more precise being given very bad advice on the issue by CDC and all advisers. I will however commend his decision a while back to stop travel from China and now Iran and poss Italy; sadly it wasn't enough and sadly other countries including UK didn't follow the lead. This was the only chance to contain it.
Click to expand...
Yes, but most of these fed agencies are suffering cutbacks and cronies placed at the head and being cowed by attacks from the president (which they are not used to) so are probably functioning less well than usual :(

re China they call themselves Communists, but probably they now more closely fit repressive autocratic nazi-like regime or even a ruthless empire like they once were. It's all bad news one way or another, and just a game of words...
Click to expand...
They are communists like the Nazis were socialists :(..It is faintly amusing that GOP attack dogs are trying to link Bernie Sanders to Russia which is now a mafia state if anything, and the US seems to be headed in the same direction.
(Not that I think Sanders really knows what he is, persisting in calling himself ‘democratic socialist’ rather than social democrat, which he probably is.)
 
arclight said:
COVID 19 WORLD HEATH ORG. ADVICE.

This is a good deal more detailed than we have been getting :-

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...lace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=359a81e7_4
Click to expand...
We have had some notices on the notice boards at work since last week as well as emails and also posted up on our internal website. Basically cancelling any work trips to affected countries especially if close to areas with high infection. There may have been something about self isolation as well, but to be honest, I didn't read to much of the notices. We get similar notices about terrorist activity too.

This is the notice put out at work.
https://www.at.ford.com/en/homepage...e-communication-regarding-covid-19--coro.html
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top