The virus. PPE. Part 1

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When will folk stop confusing the infectious 'agent'!!!!
TB is a bacterial infection that is not that easily caught and Influenza & the Common Cold are viral infections. Yes, you can get an underlying bacterial infection when the immune system is weakened by a viral infection but please don't confuse one prime cause with another.

Such confusion is what overloads the GP service (and A&E departments?) with those who have a cold or flu wanting anitbiotics (with no symptoms of an underlying bacterial infection)..........................they don't work for viral infections!



The numbers so far are low to statistically insignificantly low and the countries named in the main are more open societies for information



Yes, China has 'form' in non disclosure.....though this time they appear(?) to be that bit more public! As for their knee-jerk reactions in shutting down the mass transit of people, for whatever conspiracy theorist 'chatter' then maybe it could be the best way to slow its spread within China and thus its international dispersal.

But either way having seen the camera phone videos of folk queuing & on the floors (now how familiar is that to UK viewers.... )compared to more intensive treatment 'official' videos, it is no surprise that only in China would we see such rapid response of creating a treatment/triage unit that might or might not be needed.

If the Chinese action can slow the dispersal of potentially infectious people to the point where the infection/infectious time-frame period peters out, then all to the good ~ no?

Completely missed the point of my comment, I wasn’t being specific on the infection or indeed the type and am certainly not confused by them!, I was pointing out, that the OP was doing nothing about plenty of other infections going round the planet, some a lot more deadly.

 

[Studio488commercial]

It appears you are better prepared than most including myself. My question would be what is the mask filter capable of? Dust, smoke, certain chemical agents, microbiologicals, etc?
Hopefully you don't have to use, but if you do it is there.

Now I know you are taking the p***. You do realise how old this mask is and it’s usefullness at such age, ignore the fact that there is no filter screwed to the bottom. However if you are serious and that’s a big worry, then spend 50 quid get a n95 respirator and sit in the fridge.

 

[JonathanRyan]

We all like pictures, right?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

These numbers will be out of date when you click there but right now, it's at a 3% death rate and a 0.0002% infection rate IN CHINA. Infection rate anywhere else is extremely close to zero.

153,424 people died yesterday. If all the people who have so far died of Corana had died yesterday then they would have made up 0.05% of the total.

Even on the lowest estimate I can find, twice as many people have been killed by lightning as Corona this year.

 

[Fuji Dave]

If it does get to the UK I will be very very worried as with me having COPD and Brighton full of Chinese students it would kill me.

 

[Retune]

This is the bit I don't fully understand so far. As one coughs do they produce only droplets of saliva with virus particles, or also "dry" virus as well? At least in open or semi-open air situations like large supermarket this simple mask seems to me is enough to stop incidental infection. Or is it not so straightforward?
In a closed smaller space (room, bus) this is probably no good due to loose fitting, unless maybe the mask is worn by the infected person or both. I have close family working in a primary school so certainly this is of great concern.

For some viruses, transmission via larger droplets, which can be propelled several feet by a cough or sneeze, is particularly efficient, but they are less easily spread by smaller particles floating around in the air (which may be released all the time you are talking or just breathing, as well as by coughing and sneezing). I believe the droplet route is thought to be more important for SARS, but there have also been cases that suggest airborne transmission (e.g. passengers on a plane and medical students in a hospital out of coughing range). All you can hope for from a surgical mask is a reduction, not an elimination, of the risk of infection. This is why medical teams have suited up with proper respirators when dealing with novel Coronavirus patients (and from SARS and MERS we know that even professional protection doesn't always work - procedures have to be followed very carefully when dealing with infected patients).

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

So the resident experts at TP say we're worrying about nothing.....
Phew, that's a relief.

 

[munch]

So the resident experts at TP say we're worrying about nothing.....
Phew, that's a relief.

If you want something more definitive then look somewhere else.

 

[Fuji Dave]

Is there a Doctor in the house

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Is there a Doctor in the house

How many do you want?

 

[Box Brownie]

Completely missed the point of my comment, I wasn’t being specific on the infection or indeed the type and am certainly not confused by them!, I was pointing out, that the OP was doing nothing about plenty of other infections going round the planet, some a lot more deadly.

Ok, but your post explicitly called TB an airborne virus or did I misunderstand the exact wording of your post? FWIW to me you were saying TB is a viral infection, were you not but as you say you know the difference between a bacterial and/or a viral infection........so why make an inaccurate 'reference'

 

[Fuji Dave]

How many do you want?

Only the ones who know 100% how things might work out.

 

[Retune]

153,424 people died yesterday. If all the people who have so far died of Corana had died yesterday then they would have made up 0.05% of the total.

Even on the lowest estimate I can find, twice as many people have been killed by lightning as Corona this year.

Though that doesn't tell us much about how many people will be infected or die in the future. The virus had quite possibly never infected a human before November (the first recorded case is from 1 December), so it hasn't had the opportunity to infect many people to date. Right now, epidemiologists are estimating that each case is giving rise to 2 or 3 further cases on average, so we can expect a phase of exponential growth in infections if control measures fail.

 

[Fuji Dave]

Hopefully none of the people who left before the shut down don`t have or carry it, then it`s a big worry imo.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Really, how many people do we have in the UK, how many have got it, how many have died. You have more chance of winning the lottery. Stop being a pussy.

Don't know how many may have it.
No one in the UK has died.....yet.
People win the lottery every week.

I'm not worried about it at all.......yet.
It may come to nothing over here, but its still early days.

 

[Fuji Dave]

Don't know how many may have it.
No one in the UK has died.....yet.
People win the lottery every week.

I'm not worried about it at all.......yet.
It may come to nothing over here, but its early days yet.

Agree that the time to worry is, if we get cases in the UK.

 

[Retune]

Hopefully none of the people who left before the shut down don`t have or carry it, then it`s a big worry imo.

Unfortunately there are already many cases outside Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province (see the link posted by Jonathan above) though we can hope the lockdown will slow things down. But according to one estimate, well over 60% of transmissions would have to be prevented to control the epidemic.

 

[Fuji Dave]

Unfortunately there are already many cases outside Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei province (see the link posted by Jonathan above) though we can hope the lockdown will slow things down. But according to one estimate, well over 60% of transmissions would have to be prevented to control the epidemic.

France is a bit close, but not to worry YET.

 

[Box Brownie]

There was some (repeated) reference to the source of such a virus being the wet markets that predominate in China (and other countries?) and in the past I have seen (the somewhat derogatory comment) that "the Chinese will eat anything that moves or has legs but draw the line at the table legs"! So the risk of inter species infection is higher in such situations.

Another example of a wet market resulting in an infection of truly devastating effect was Ebola, thought to have originated by eating bush meat!

As a northern european westerner I do find such an approach to "food" a bit outlandish but just maybe where it is just a cultural vs an economic 'driver' there might be some changes that will further reduce the potential of future cross species infections??? Either that or we may yet, in the not too distant future, see a significant pandemic infection that returns the human population to a number that can survive more sustainably compared to now in 2020?

 

[tijuana taxi]

If it does get to the UK I will be very very worried as with me having COPD and Brighton full of Chinese students it would kill me.

Brighton is full of gays yet AIDS didn't get you, so why would the Chinese be more likely to.

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

Brighton is full of gays yet AIDS didn't get you, so why would the Chinese be more likely to.

I think you'll find this virus spreads differently to aids

 

[Retune]

There was some (repeated) reference to the source of such a virus being the wet markets that predominate in China

The situation is looking a bit muddier now. It's emerged that 13 of the first 41 documented cases, including the earliest case of all, don't appear to be associated with the market that was originally implicated. But we do know that the new virus is 96% identical to a bat virus, so it has presumably jumped species either directly from bats or via an 'intermediate host' (as with SARS and MERS). The viruses that have been analysed so far from patients in various locations are genetically nearly identical, suggesting this was a recent event (they haven't had time to diverge yet). The whole thing might have been started by infection of a single human from an animal host, and then passed from human to human ever since. This is different to MERS, where humans have been infected multiple times by camels and the viruses are more genetically diverse.

 

[tijuana taxi]

I think you'll find this virus spreads differently to aids

I had a rough idea it would, just highlighting because a certain group of people live somewhere doesn't mean they are automatically carriers.

 

[Fuji Dave]

Brighton is full of gays yet AIDS didn't get you, so why would the Chinese be more likely to.

I think you'll find this virus spreads differently to aids

Bob answered that question, plus the whole world IS full of gay folk

 

[Studio488commercial]

Ok, but your post explicitly called TB an airborne virus or did I misunderstand the exact wording of your post? FWIW to me you were saying TB is a viral infection, were you not but as you say you know the difference between a bacterial and/or a viral infection........so why make an inaccurate 'reference'

I did, but the average person will never differentiate between a virus, infection or disease in the discussion we are having, so pedantic point taken.

 

[Studio488commercial]

So the resident experts at TP say we're worrying about nothing.....
Phew, that's a relief.

You don't need to be an expert to read the facts.

As of 27 January, a total of 73 UK tests have concluded, of which 73 were confirmed negative and 0 positive.
There are currently no confirmed cases in the UK or of UK citizens abroad, and the risk to the public is low.

 

[rick448]

I have been given some guidance via our local Resilience Forum which looks at the risks to our local community. As we have Hull University local to us, and that also has a large Chinese student base, and where I work is also the local airport, we have a higher than normal risk. But, so far the advice is pretty low key, and certainly nothing overly concerning. If the level of risk increases I would expect to see some changes to the advice pretty quickly.

 

[JohnC6]

The situation is looking a bit muddier now. It's emerged that 13 of the first 41 documented cases, including the earliest case of all, don't appear to be associated with the market that was originally implicated. But we do know that the new virus is 96% identical to a bat virus, so it has presumably jumped species either directly from bats or via an 'intermediate host' (as with SARS and MERS). The viruses that have been analysed so far from patients in various locations are genetically nearly identical, suggesting this was a recent event (they haven't had time to diverge yet). The whole thing might have been started by infection of a single human from an animal host, and then passed from human to human ever since. This is different to MERS, where humans have been infected multiple times by camels and the viruses are more genetically diverse.

I recall either hearing on the radio or tv or I read it that your penultimate sentence is exactly what’s happened.

We do like the occasional Chinese takeaway/restaurant but have decided to give them a miss for a while. Is this OTT...

I’ve just posted in the New Chinese hospital thread my wife I are really struggling with a UK home-grown chest infection virus. I think it was Long Lens who said he stayed away from public places..apart from the supermarket although that’s good enough a venue for contagion but I don’t go out and about socialising as my my wife does..WI..Women’s Guild, a. Book club and and a choir..and as I contracted it 10 days before she did I assume she’s picked it up from me. If anyone has just been infected with it ..we hear of quite a few cases and 4 of the Women’s Guild members,including my wife, lost out on a paid-for dinner a couple of evenings ago...it can last from 3-6 weeks and is ‘truly ‘orrible. I’ve had it for three weeks and I’m still coughing up unmentionables..my wife is confined to bed. To help the throat I can recommend a 50p tube of Halls Soothers..Cherry or black current...in most supermarkets. No need to pay £4.50 fir Strepsils There’s no throat infection with this, it’s deep inside the chest/lungs..you just need to generate saliva which they do. Tissues seem to be on offer in the supermarkets too which I was pleased to see.

 

[JohnC6]

Bob answered that question, plus the whole world IS full of gay folk

Are you sure...re gays. ?. To the best of my knowledge there are none in our road....

 

[Box Brownie]

I did, but the average person will never differentiate between a virus, infection or disease in the discussion we are having, so pedantic point taken.

The point I am making is nothing to do with pedantry but all about accuracy.....................having said that you are right in that the average person will be unlikely to differentiate.

However that does not excuse the continued mis-use of the correct "name" for something that then leaves those of the uninformed in ignorance and their incorrect assumption that a viral infection will need/be cured by anti-biotics.

On this forum which is a public one and can be read by anyone it is possible that the Google bots will bring this thread up in searches about infection and if lacking in accuracy will simply cause the issue to propagate! As a person that knows the difference you do yourself a dis-service by your improper use of the difference between viral & bacterial

 

[n0chex]

I had all five variants, just made me p*** a bit, no other symptoms

 

[Mr Badger]

Snip:

We had the IRA bombing London when I was a young man, did it affect our lives - no.

That's the spirit. During the London blitz my great auntie always used to say "If a bomb has got your name on it then there's nothing you can do about it, so what's the point of worrying?".

Her neighbours in the house next door never seemed to take much comfort when she said that though... still, they were a nice couple Mr and Mrs Doodlebug.

 

[JonathanRyan]

Though that doesn't tell us much about how many people will be infected or die in the future. The virus had quite possibly never infected a human before November (the first recorded case is from 1 December), so it hasn't had the opportunity to infect many people to date. Right now, epidemiologists are estimating that each case is giving rise to 2 or 3 further cases on average, so we can expect a phase of exponential growth in infections if control measures fail.

Well, it kind of does.....

Right now, epidemiologists will be plugging their estimates into models based on data exactly like in that map and working out predicted spread and what we can do about it. Some of them are pretty smart people who are good at their job. We can tell this because so far none of the major threats have actually wiped us out

I'm pretty sure they all agree that the best way to be safe from a virus is to be a long way from anybody who has it. PPE would be a last ditch safety attempt but nowhere near as effective as a few thousand miles. Or even a couple of hundred. The closest infected people are about 200 miles from me. They are also (presumably) in isolation in hospital. I'm not too worried.

 

[Studio488commercial]

The point I am making is nothing to do with pedantry but all about accuracy.....................having said that you are right in that the average person will be unlikely to differentiate.

However that does not excuse the continued mis-use of the correct "name" for something that then leaves those of the uninformed in ignorance and their incorrect assumption that a viral infection will need/be cured by anti-biotics.

On this forum which is a public one and can be read by anyone it is possible that the Google bots will bring this thread up in searches about infection and if lacking in accuracy will simply cause the issue to propagate! As a person that knows the difference you do yourself a dis-service by your improper use of the difference between viral & bacterial

As the self proclaimed Internet acuracy police, I can only assume you will be visiting every single post on here as the inaccuracies about a wide range of topics do come thick and fast, you have your work cut out, good luck.

 

[Box Brownie]

As the self proclaimed Internet acuracy police, I can only assume you will be visiting every single post on here as the inaccuracies about a wide range of topics do come thick and fast, you have your work cut out, good luck.

Nah! only the ones that I come across that have meaning & interest to me, as is the case in this thread because I used to be, amongst other roles in a pathology laboratory, a microbiology technician......so accuracy was vital and indeed at times of life saving importance. (NB one of the benches I worked at was doing the testing for the presence of TB!)

If I was pedantic I would point out the spelling mistake in your post but I won't because I am not immune from the odd one or two of those myself so cannot 'speak'

 

[Retune]

I had all five variants, just made me p*** a bit, no other symptoms

View attachment 267066

This variety made me very ill:

 

[Mr Badger]

I had all five variants, just made me p*** a bit, no other symptoms

View attachment 267066

There were more than five variants, you've not shown the deadly dandelion and burdock strain!

 

[Box Brownie]

There were more than five variants, you've not shown the deadly dandelion and burdock strain!

As far as I recall they were all on the Corona truck......or was it branded the R.Whites truck. Those were the days, an open flatbed truck with all those crates of bottled fizz on it

 

[Retune]

Well, it kind of does.....

Right now, epidemiologists will be plugging their estimates into models based on data exactly like in that map and working out predicted spread and what we can do about it. Some of them are pretty smart people who are good at their job. We can tell this because so far none of the major threats have actually wiped us out

I'm pretty sure they all agree that the best way to be safe from a virus is to be a long way from anybody who has it. PPE would be a last ditch safety attempt but nowhere near as effective as a few thousand miles. Or even a couple of hundred. The closest infected people are about 200 miles from me. They are also (presumably) in isolation in hospital. I'm not too worried.

But we shouldn't feel reassured about the relatively small number of deaths in absolute terms, relative to total deaths or (or lightning strikes!). Epidemiologists are pretty sure that we have caught the epidemic at an early stage - it's possible there were some earlier cases that have been missed, but this isn't something that has been circulating for a long time in humans, because its genetic diversity is currently very low. So the absolute number of deaths on its own doesn't tell us much yet. We were lucky with SARS, because the virus isn't very transmissible until symptoms begin to appear, so it is relatively easy to isolate patients before they can pass it on. We were lucky with MERS, because it isn't transmitted between humans very efficiently. We are lucky with the other four Coronaviruses that infect humans, because they rarely do worse than cause a common cold. None of these things may be true of 2019-nCoV. It may well be infectious before symptoms appear, it is certainly readily transmissible between humans, and it can definitely cause serious disease and death. One possibility is that it will not be contained and will become endemic in the global population like the common cold Coronaviruses, but with much nastier effects, like flu or worse. And normal seasonal influenza, outside serious epidemics, kills hundreds of thousands a year. Smart people are certainly plugging the numbers into their models and their preliminary conclusions make interesting reading. Here's a link I posted in the other thread:

'Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people. “The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS. If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities. ... “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak. There may be as many as 100,000 cases already in China, Ferguson told The Guardian newspaper on Sunday, adding the model suggests the number could be between 30,000 and 200,000 cases. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected,” he told the British newspaper.'

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

 

[Mr Badger]

As far as I recall they were all on the Corona truck......or was it branded the R.Whites truck. Those were the days, an open flatbed truck with all those crates of bottled fizz on it

Remember it well, and according to the advert, every bubble had passed its Fizzical. Happy days.

 

[Mr Badger]

As for the virus, if you wanted to spread a disease around the world as quickly and efficiently as possible it would be hard to think of a better system than the human race has got now. Take one contagious person and put them in very close proximity to two or three hundred others for several hours in a sealed metal tube with recirculating air and move them thousands of miles around the world, then release them all into the local population via a crowded central hub. Sometimes humans are too clever for their own good.