The virus. PPE. Part 1

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'Modelling' this virus must be incredibly difficult and as Bob says even the experts in this will be giving 'their opinion'.

This is the way I see it FWIW:

We have no defence agains this virus so the chances are the majority of the population are at risk of catching it no matter what measures you put in place. The measures will only 'delay' or accelerate it's spread.

Here comes the horrible bit: those that die from it would die no matter what controls we have in place and no health service no matter how well prepared will be overwhelmed by a disease of this magnitude; it is a really sad set of circumstances.

If we 'close down' our economy this will cause dire consequences in the future and could lead to significant more illness/deaths from other problems such as mental health (suicide from job losses etc) or lack of future investment because the economy goes into severe recession.

This is the horrible 'balancing act'; although terrible I personally believe we have to accept the extremely sad losses this virus will bring but try to keep the economy as strong as possible.
 
Retune said:
Based on the extent of testing, which country do you think is more likely to be 'missing some figures' - the UK or South Korea?
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Why is missing figures so damned important - a figure means nothing - it is just a statistic!
 
woof woof said:
..... and by social practices and factors and these could vary from country to country or maybe even region to region.
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That's certainly the case. The French typically greet all friends with a peck on each cheek.....even an entire football team greet each other this way when they arrive for the match......it's clearly a very easy way to spread infections.
Tonight's TV address has asked everyone to stay home and not visit families and friends unless absolutley neccessary.
 
MatBin said:
We see our Dad twice a week, minimum and speak to him virtually every day. My conscience is pretty much ok these days. Learnt the hard way regarding my Mum.
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There's a Mike Silver song called Sepia Sunset which is heartbreaking.

"they pay for the phone
out in the hall
they pay but they don't ever call"

I have many regrets in my life and all I can do is learn from them and try not to add to them.
 
MatBin said:
Tests need to be carried out on those that present with symptoms, as opposed to those that just demand a test, we have already witnessed greed in the UK and it's not a pretty sight.
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Yeah, I wasn't meaning blanket testing.
 
Edit: take a look at Ian Donald's linked thread for quite a balanced view of the UK strategy, and what it actually implies.
View: https://BANNED/globalhlthtwit/status/1238747063933861889
 
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MatBin said:
Tests need to be carried out on those that present with symptoms, as opposed to those that just demand a test, we have already witnessed greed in the UK and it's not a pretty sight.
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Under the current plan, neither group will be tested unless the symptoms are serious enough to hospitalise the patient (assuming there's a bed).
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Why all the pro government posts?
He's putting across alternative opinions.
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..............that are all critical of the Government and support his political bias. It has been said there will always be people of a political persuasion that are anti-government no matter what.

as Alan has posted; this is past party politics.

Interestingly I got a wrap on the knuckles from @Marc for posting something 'tongue in cheek' a page ago but nothing is said against postings supporting his Political persuasions.

Politicians from both sides are in the main supportive that the government is following the advice of the chief medical officers and people are generally critical of listening to social media posts yet there is a plethora of crap from t***ter by the same posters on here?
 
Retune said:
Edit: take a look at Ian Donald's linked thread for quite a balanced view of the UK strategy, and what it actually implies.
View: https://BANNED/globalhlthtwit/status/1238747063933861889
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That's a very interesting read, and not anti government at all.
It does make sense, and is clearly explained, but not guaranteed to work so there are risks.
It does explain the significant differences between what we are trying to achieve and what the Italians are trying to achieve.
 
DK602 said:
..............that are all critical of the Government and support his political bias. It has been said there will always be people of a political persuasion that are anti-government no matter what.

as Alan has posted; this is past party politics.

Interestingly I got a wrap on the knuckles from @Marc for posting something 'tongue in cheek' a page ago but nothing is said against postings supporting his Political persuasions.

Politicians from both sides are in the main supportive that the government is following the advice of the chief medical officers and people are generally critical of listening to social media posts yet there is a plethora of crap from t***ter by the same posters on here?
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Did you read his last Twitter post?
You're the only one I see going on about politics I'm afraid.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Did you read his last Twitter post?
You're the only one I see going on about politics I'm afraid.
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Yes I did ......and agree.

You don't have to 'mention politics' to be plainly obvious what Political spectrum you support though; it's more subtle than that.
 
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This isn't a party political issue. Other parties might well have adopted a similar strategy, given similar advice. Whether that's the correct advice is open to question. There's not a clear consensus on the best way to handle this unprecedented situation, but as Jeremy Hunt (of all people) put it, the UK's approach is an 'outlier'. We are now running live experiments on national populations based on assumptions that might be very wide of the mark. One WHO-sanctioned approach, which the UK has chosen not to adopt, is based on using all the tools at our disposal to test, trace and isolate cases. This appears to be having significant success in the short term in various countries. Whether it will succeed in the long term is unclear, but it might at least buy enough time to (e.g.) complete the remdesivir trials or get more hospital beds with ventilators up and running.
 
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DK602 said:
....that are all critical of the Government
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Are they actually critical of the government?
Or just alternative views?
Even if they are critical of the government, why is that wrong? Jeremy Corbin has made a career out of that.. :)
I've got no issues with differing political opinions and attitudes to mines, as long as it doesn't get abusive.
 
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DK602 said:
Yes I did ......and agree.

You don't have to 'mention politics' to be plainly obvious what Political spectrum you support though; it's more subtle than that.
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Could argue you don't need to mention politics to be plainly obvious what political spectrum you don't support.
Who says he's wrong and you or I are right? Or vice versa?
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
Could argue you don't need to mention politics to be plainly obvious what political spectrum you don't support.
Who says he's wrong and you or I are right? Or vice versa?
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Good point...........well made.

i did think I was wrong once............but I later found out I was mistaken. :p
 
Before the last election I read a piece from some commentator (I can't remember who it was) saying that one thing Boris does is surround himself with good people who know what they're doing. Hopefully he's done that in this case and hopefully the UK is on a right path. I say a right path as there may be other right paths.

If the governments plan works I don't care if Boris tries to take the credit. I just want the best possible outcome and for me that'd be measured in human costs rather than financially.
 
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woof woof said:
Before the last election I read a piece from some commentator (I can't remember who it was) saying that one thing Boris does is surround himself with good people who know what they're doing. Hopefully he's done that in this case and hopefully the UK is on a right path. I say a right path as there may be other right paths.

If the governments plan works I don't care if Boris tries to take the credit. I just want the best possible outcome and for me that'd be measured in human costs rather than financially.
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Dominic Cummings will take all the credit. . :LOL:
 
woof woof said:
........................... I just want the best possible outcome and for me that'd be measured in human costs rather than financially.
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Sadly Alan, if the economy collapses due to incorrect decisions I don't think anyone will count the human cost of that so we will never know :-(
 
DK602 said:
Sadly Alan, if the economy collapses due to incorrect decisions I don't think anyone will count the human cost of that so we will never know :-(
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I suppose we do have to consider economics and I don't think there's any doubt that economics have been included in the plans but borrowing is cheap at the moment and if there's a cost I think we have to pay it even if we have to pay it for a very long time.
 
woof woof said:
I suppose we do have to consider economics and I don't think there's any doubt that economics have been included in the plans but borrowing is cheap at the moment and if there's a cost I think we have to pay it even if we have to pay it for a very long time.
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I didn't know them well but an associate lost his business through a few contracts that fell through, then lost his family because of the financial strain; committed suicide then his son did the same because he felt he hadn't supported his father enough..................all as tragic as someone passing with the virus.

Personal financial ruin and economic ruin can cause serious health problems - those statistics wouldn't be recorded anywhere as 'linked to the closure of the economy due to coronavirus'.

Statistics can be used to support any argument you wish - hence why recording them is just a pointless waste of money IMO.
 
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DK602 said:
I didn't know them well but an associate lost his business through a few contracts that fell through, then lost his family because of the financial strain; committed suicide then his son did the same because he felt he hadn't supported his father enough..................all as tragic as someone passing with the virus.

Personal financial ruin and economic ruin can cause serious health problems - those statistics wouldn't be recorded anywhere as 'linked to the closure of the economy due to coronavirus'.

Statistics can be used to support any argument you wish - hence why recording them is just a pointless waste of money IMO.
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Sorry to hear that about your associate and his son Doug.
So sad.
 
DK602 said:
I didn't know them well but an associate lost his business through a few contracts that fell through, then lost his family because of the financial strain; committed suicide then his son did the same because he felt he hadn't supported his father enough..................all as tragic as someone passing with the virus.

Personal financial ruin and economic ruin can cause serious health problems - those statistics wouldn't be recorded anywhere as 'linked to the closure of the economy due to coronavirus'.

Statistics can be used to support any argument you wish - hence why recording them is just a pointless waste of money IMO.
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I've long thought that UK governments should adopt a more interventionist role rather than rely on market forces and a belief in any IMO non existent level playing field.

I think that if this current crisis is as bad as we fear the UK government may need to adopt an interventionist stance and maybe for quite some time.

PS.

On stats. I used to do a lot of these so maybe I'm biased.

I do think that they can be useful but the key is that they need to be good stats not poor ones. How the stats are gathered and any criteria for inclusion or exclusion needs to be clearly stated. No plan survives first contact with the enemy so if and when things change the cut off and restart points and details of what's changed and why need to be clearly stated. All things need to be defendable.
 
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woof woof said:
I've long thought that UK governments should adopt a more interventionist role rather than rely on market forces and a belief in any IMO non existent level playing field.

I think that if this current crisis is as bad as we fear the UK government may need to adopt an interventionist stance and maybe for quite some time.

PS.

On stats. I used to do a lot of these so maybe I'm biased.

I do think that they can be useful but the key is that they need to be good stats not poor ones. How the stats are gathered and any criteria for inclusion or exclusion needs to be clearly stated. No plan survives first contact with the enemy so if and when things change the cut off and restart points and details of what's changed and why need to be clearly stated. All things need to be defendable.
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I wouldn't say 'biased' Alan - probably 'better informed' would be a good use of words. (y)
 
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I think that HM government were hoping to keep a lid on it till warmer weather brought a relief , but the media have well and truly f***ed that one up . It’s just caused panic in the shops .. personally I think in the next couple of weeks we will have lockdown and media restrictions and also the army what’s left of it on the streets .

Lifestyles are going to have to change after this is over and that’s worldwide not just in the u.k .. also the way this is spreading is making me wonder a bit I would have expected after China that the Asian and African nations would have been the worst affected but the reverse seems true apart from South Korea ..

its almost like it’s hitting a targeted audience ? The more I look at the demographics of this the more I’m beginning to wonder if it’s a genetically man made virus . more questions than answers here
 
Other than the fact we aren't in lockdown, I am confused by all the comments that our govt are doing this wrong.
I can't find the statistics again at the moment, but they were in here somewhere. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
But it showed that in terms of the number of tests carried out per country, the UK was ranked at around 3rd or 4th and going by the number of tests performed in the UK that someone has posted on here recently(may have been in a tweet) that number has almost doubled.
We have had more tests performed in the UK combined with a lower confirmed number of cases. But some countries have a lower number of tests performed and a higher number of confirmed cases.
 
the black fox said:
I think that HM government were hoping to keep a lid on it till warmer weather brought a relief , but the media have well and truly f***ed that one up . It’s just caused panic in the shops .. personally I think in the next couple of weeks we will have lockdown and media restrictions and also the army what’s left of it on the streets .

Lifestyles are going to have to change after this is over and that’s worldwide not just in the u.k .. also the way this is spreading is making me wonder a bit I would have expected after China that the Asian and African nations would have been the worst affected but the reverse seems true apart from South Korea ..

its almost like it’s hitting a targeted audience ? The more I look at the demographics of this the more I’m beginning to wonder if it’s a genetically man made virus . more questions than answers here
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Maybe nothing should surprise us these days but I would maybe raise an eye brow if that was the case :D

I think maybe it's possibly partly explained by the open western lifestyle with people jetting off to here there and everywhere and bringing whatever they've picked up along the way back with them. I don't know for sure but I'd guess that some countries have less internationally mobile populations (or even internally for that matter) than others and therefore fewer hot spots dotted about from which the virus could spread? Also some countries may have younger and maybe less at risk of serious effects populations and sorry to harp on about demographics and other stuff but I do wonder if the raw death rate is a good enough thing to focus on as a measure and an indicator of how good or bad a strategy or the situation at the moment is.
 
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Statistics are only as good as they number of people that are tested.
Like with the any other flu, how many had it and don't report it so there figures
will look lower
The only way there will ever be a true figure is if every the coughs/sneezes is immediately tested
which at this time of year with pollen blowing about would be a lot.

Ok so you lock down for 2 weeks, then what all back to normal ?
Those that have been infected whilst in quarantine but not shown any signs are suddenly
free to infect again
 
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