The Culture Secretary (Oliver Dowden) was interviewed on the BBC1 Breakfast programme this morning. A couple of things he said were -
In the early stages we pursued a track and trace policy(which sounds like what South Korea were/are doing) - was I the only one who missed that?
Government is working to overcome each challenge as it arrives - shouldn't there be some forward planning?
A billion pieces of ppe have been delivered - Oliver Dowden did not give the timescale over which these pieces of ppe were delivered but as the interview was obviously about the pandemic I assume this provision was since Covid 19 appeared and one billion is a lot.
I tried to translate this figure into something easier to handle. To make the calculation easy I assumed the delivery of these one billion pieces started on January 10th (Jan 10th is 100 days from yesterday). One billion pieces of ppe delivered in that time period equates to 10,000,000 pieces delivered every day since Jan 10th.
That would be quite an achievement anyway but seems unlikely given that for some time many concerns have been raised about the lack of adequate equipment.
I wonder if the Culture Secretary was being creative with the figures, ie perhaps the one billion referred to a period that started before Covid19 was ever heard of, or perhaps he just got the figure wrong.
Anyone else think that a billion is an unlikely figure?
Dave
Because i like 'bag of the fag packet' calculations:-
Very roughly there are 500,000 frontline staff that may use ppe in the NHS (this may be a high estimate, but rough order of magnitude correct)
Let's say they work a 5 day week, over 100 calendar days that is approx 70 work days. (perhaps on the low side at a time like this..)
This gives around 35,000,000 work days.
This is where my guesswork gets a little shaky...Would appreciate better estimates from medical workers...
Lets say that a worker uses 30 items of ppe in a day
30 x 35,000,000 is .....
1,050,000,000
Or just over one billion items used
So if my fag packet calculation is correct, the amount being delivered is only matching the demand.
PS, calculating the amount of volume / number of lorry loads this may be:-
An artic lorry has a capacity of 80m3 or 26 tonne
A packet of gloves is around 25cm x 10cm x 7cm
A packet has a volume of 0.00175 m3
A glove weighs around 3.5 grams
A lorry can carry 45,000 of these boxes
45,000 boxes weighs around 15 tonnes, so within the payload of an artic
100 gloves per box, so each lorry can carry 4,500,000 gloves.
So a billion items is around 200 artics, assuming they are the only gloves. Assuming most PPE is larger than gloves, the total amount of loads will be a multiple of 200.
PPS, should be working really!