The virus. PPE. Part 1

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So the UK missed three opportunities to join a EU bulk purchasing scheme of PPE equipment.

Apparently, the first few invitations were sent to the wrong email address and when the the UK finally received the invitation, it didn’t respond quickly enough:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...HREE-chances-join-EU-scheme-bulk-buy-PPE.html

Work & Pensions Secretary, Therese Coffee said ‘is in a better place now than necessarily we would have been under the EU scheme'.

Unusually, there wasn’t a trace of EUphobia in the Mail’s article.
 
Uncle Fester said:
So the UK missed three opportunities to join a EU bulk purchasing scheme of PPE equipment.

Apparently, the first few invitations were sent to the wrong email address and when the the UK finally received the invitation, it didn’t respond quickly enough:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...HREE-chances-join-EU-scheme-bulk-buy-PPE.html

Work & Pensions Secretary, Therese Coffee said ‘is in a better place now than necessarily we would have been under the EU scheme'.

Unusually, there wasn’t a trace of EUphobia in the Mail’s article.
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Is this a government fault or the civil service?
 
Uncle Fester said:
So the UK missed three opportunities to join a EU bulk purchasing scheme of PPE equipment.

Apparently, the first few invitations were sent to the wrong email address and when the the UK finally received the invitation, it didn’t respond quickly enough:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...HREE-chances-join-EU-scheme-bulk-buy-PPE.html

Work & Pensions Secretary, Therese Coffee said ‘is in a better place now than necessarily we would have been under the EU scheme'.

Unusually, there wasn’t a trace of EUphobia in the Mail’s article.
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Just as well Turkey donated and flew a shipment to the UK then.
 
myotis said:
I'm not sure about the fiddling with the basis of how statistics were collected, it's more about the use and interpretation of the statistics, and Harold Wilsons name comes up as the only PM who has ever really understood statistics.

But it's not restricted to MPs as various Government Chief Scientists have come under fire from the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) for not understanding the statistics behind and, therefore, the scientific evidence they have presented to Government. Unfortunately, many scientists aren't that good with statistics, in spite of their crucial importance to scientific understanding.

A few years ago the RSS (in association with the ONS) put together some training for MPs and Journalists, to help them better understand statistics in decision making, but at the end of the first year (as I remember) several journalists had signed up, but no MPs.

(Begin rant) The biggest problem I think, is that most people seem to expect some sort of "objective certainty" from statistics, we see this with meaningless marketing phrases along the line of "clinically proven" or "scientifically proven" which is the exact opposite of what science and statistics do. Statistics can only ever provide an objective measure of "uncertainty" about scientific data, and even then there is always an element of subjectivity (professional judgement) involved. (End rant)
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Thank you, that’s a very insightful post.

I have zero idea of how advisory groups function and how they present their advice to government. I’m guessing that they do not give very narrow and specific advice, but rather present a range of options, outcomes and probabilities.

We have some inkling that the members of SAGE were far from unanimous in their opinions as to the correct course of action. Therefore, I would presume, that the advice presented to government would have reflected the range of opinion within SAGE.

I would presume yet again, that when the government say that they are guided by scientific advice they are in fact making their decisions not based on a solitary recommendation, but a range of options. Ultimately it is the politicians who make the decision where the balance of risk between virus spread and economic harm lays i.e when to introduce lockdown and containment measures, and not the scientific advisors.

All presumption and speculation on my part.
 
cambsno said:
Is this a government fault or the civil service?
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I don’t know.

I guess whoever is responsible for ensuring that all relevant organisations have your correct contact details.

Of course, one might presume that a proactive government, would be talking to other countries about possible bulk purchasing regardless, and not waiting for a possible invitation.
 
cambsno said:
Is this a government fault or the civil service?
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The Civil Service is the operational arm of the British government. Everything that a civil servant does s/he does on the instructions of the appropriate minister.
 
Uncle Fester said:
We have some inkling that the members of SAGE were far from unanimous in their opinions as to the correct course of action. Therefore, I would presume, that the advice presented to government would have reflected the range of opinion within SAGE.

I would presume yet again, that when the government say that they are guided by scientific advice they are in fact making their decisions not based on a solitary recommendation, but a range of options. Ultimately it is the politicians who make the decision where the balance of risk between virus spread and economic harm lays i.e when to introduce lockdown and containment measures, and not the scientific advisors.
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Yes, it will be much as you suggest, or at least it should be :-)
 
myotis said:
Well, they were clearly blaming Public Health England. Had it been the Government and part of a UK strategy to make sure supplies went to places they were most needed, then this is something that would make sense, but, as of the time of the Article, the Department of Health hadn't commented.
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looking through their wider statement, not just the restriction notice on the product, it appears Public Health England actually bought the entire supply, and Gompels are shipping out to individual institutions on PHE’s behalf.

Bit different to stopping them selling it elsewhere
 
myotis said:
I'm not sure about the fiddling with the basis of how statistics were collected, it's more about the use and interpretation of the statistics, and Harold Wilsons name comes up as the only PM who has ever really understood statistics.

But it's not restricted to MPs as various Government Chief Scientists have come under fire from the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) for not understanding the statistics behind and, therefore, the scientific evidence they have presented to Government. Unfortunately, many scientists aren't that good with statistics, in spite of their crucial importance to scientific understanding.

A few years ago the RSS (in association with the ONS) put together some training for MPs and Journalists, to help them better understand statistics in decision making, but at the end of the first year (as I remember) several journalists had signed up, but no MPs.

(Begin rant) The biggest problem I think, is that most people seem to expect some sort of "objective certainty" from statistics, we see this with meaningless marketing phrases along the line of "clinically proven" or "scientifically proven" which is the exact opposite of what science and statistics do. Statistics can only ever provide an objective measure of "uncertainty" about scientific data, and even then there is always an element of subjectivity (professional judgement) involved. (End rant)
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Agree, I rather think some sort of “understanding stats” course should be compulsory for MPs (maybe for candidates too (:)) with a short comprehension test after :), perhaps a flogging if they fail as all those Old Etonians will be used to that :).
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
The Civil Service is the operational arm of the British government. Everything that a civil servant does s/he does on the instructions of the appropriate minister.
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It is, but people should be doing basic stuff, government should not need to check to see if email addresses are updated.
 
Mozthecat said:
looking through their wider statement, not just the restriction notice on the product, it appears Public Health England actually bought the entire supply, and Gompels are shipping out to individual institutions on PHE’s behalf.

Bit different to stopping them selling it elsewhere
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I did wonder if that might have been the case, did you manage to find the full statement on their web site. According to Matt Hancock, it never happened, as all the PPE supply is being coordinated at a UK level.
 
Rapscallion said:
Why weren't they listening following the pandemic scenario planning Exercise Cygnus that so clearly highlighted the lack of ventilators?
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Jelster said:
Well we "could have" stocked up on PPE, and ventilators, but then I expect that the opposition would have challenged the government on all that money tied up doing nothing. A lot of PPE has a shelf life so I understand, so that would need replacing periodically. It's a lose/lose situation if your glass is half empty. Whether they should of had a different strategy will come out in the wash, but as they say, hindsight is 20:20 vision....
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myotis said:
I did wonder if that might have been the case, did you manage to find the full statement on their web site. According to Matt Hancock, it never happened, as all the PPE supply is being coordinated at a UK level.
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The wider story is here: https://www.gompels.co.uk/coronavir...r&utm_medium=click&utm_campaign=wk16+14042020


against the masks
https://www.gompels.co.uk/phe-type-...R+Fluid+Repellant+Surgical+Mask+Blue+300+Pack
it says:

Gompels are helping the COVID-19 response by distributing this product on behalf of Public Health England to ensure that essential supplies get to Care homes and Domiciliary care providers. As such this product has a number of restrictions on who can purchase it.

  • You must be registered and operating within England - apologies to Wales and Scotland, we are told you have different processes for getting emergency supplies
  • You need to be a Care Home or Domiciliary Care Agency
These restrictions are not something we have decided, they are a criteria given to us by Public Health England.

We have been told that there are alternative arrangements in place for Wales and Scotland, but we have not been able to find out what they are. Please do not think this is us discriminating against our lovely and loyal Welsh and Scottish customers.
 
Mozthecat said:
Gompels are helping the COVID-19 response by distributing this product on behalf of Public Health England to ensure that essential supplies get to Care homes and Domiciliary care providers. As such this product has a number of restrictions on who can purchase it.
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I'm not sure how this is interpreted as PHE having purchased all the stock, as it says that the restrictions are on who can "purchase" the masks. Are you assuming that because its says they are distributing the masks on behalf of PHE, that the PHE has actually bought them all.

Anyway the official government line at the moment is that PHE issued no such instruction, so I guess we will never know what the situation is/was.
 
Jelster said:
Well we "could have" stocked up on PPE, and ventilators, but then I expect that the opposition would have challenged the government on all that money tied up doing nothing. A lot of PPE has a shelf life so I understand, so that would need replacing periodically. It's a lose/lose situation if your glass is half empty. Whether they should of had a different strategy will come out in the wash, but as they say, hindsight is 20:20 vision....
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Hi Steve

This issue was addressed a little earlier in the thread. And I tend agree with your comment regarding the impracticality of storing up vast stocks of PPE/ventilators just in case they may be needed one day.

I would argue, that not being cognisant of the recommendations of earlier planning excercises, isn’t just a case of being wiser with hindsight, it borders on the negligent.

This was my answer to the original post on this subject:


Uncle Fester said:
I partially agree with you. No government can be fully prepared for every imaginable and unimaginable emergency. I also don’t think that any government could stockpile tens of thousands of ventilators if they’re going to remain unused in the normal course of life.

But if you go through a Pandemic planning excercise which specifically highlights the lack of ventilators you have two options:

A: You could be proactive and contact industry about the theoretical need to produce ventilators at short notice. The design, prototyping and test manufacture could be done, so in the event of ventilators being needed for emergency use, production could be begin very quickly. No wasted weeks (and possibly lives) designing, testing and approving a new design because that work had already been done.

B: Do nothing and hope that we never suffer a Pandemic.

You don’t always need to spend and stockpile to be better prepared for disasters. Sometimes it just takes the application of a little intelligence and common sense.
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Uncle Fester said:
Thank you, that’s a very insightful post.

I have zero idea of how advisory groups function and how they present their advice to government. I’m guessing that they do not give very narrow and specific advice, but rather present a range of options, outcomes and probabilities.

We have some inkling that the members of SAGE were far from unanimous in their opinions as to the correct course of action. Therefore, I would presume, that the advice presented to government would have reflected the range of opinion within SAGE.

I would presume yet again, that when the government say that they are guided by scientific advice they are in fact making their decisions not based on a solitary recommendation, but a range of options. Ultimately it is the politicians who make the decision where the balance of risk between virus spread and economic harm lays i.e when to introduce lockdown and containment measures, and not the scientific advisors.

All presumption and speculation on my part.
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And then again, one of the common things that politicians (and others) say is that they have consulted widely and “here is what we have decided”, which is what they were going to do all along :(.
 
sphexx said:
And then again, one of the common things that politicians (and others) say is that they have consulted widely and “here is what we have decided”, which is what they were going to do all along :(.
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This may be the case, but at least their decision should be better informed ;-)
 
Just a heads-up re a half-hour Radio4 programme on in 7 minutes re Covid-19. 9.00pm.

Channel4 News earlier highlighted te authoritarian leaders who are giving themselves more power in the name of controlling Codid-19. Hungary -N.Korea (if that was possible)-Pakistan Footage shown of police beating medical staff including doctors, who were protesting about lack of PPE- Duarte.Philipines. He's authorised his police/soldiers to kill any violent protester..he used those word..kill them..Putin..Pres. Xi Jinping. Indian PM Narendra Modi.

Russia/China https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/...-china-analysis-nic-robertson-intl/index.html

The news also spoke to a Residential/Care Home owner in Torquay. The Govnt are suggesting/telling ? Care Homes to take Covid patients who have recovered but without any testing them. The owner was told where which company to call to get PPE along with a telephone number. When she called there was an answer machine with a message stating it was closed over Easter and would open today. However, the Care Homes are getting together to refuse to take ex hospital patients..who,I assume have no family to go to.
 
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So if they were correct to ignore this advice, why were they correct to accept the advice not to lockdown as per your article?
My point is that the right wing commentators are selectively choosing the advice the Gov. should be following, excusing the government form acting early.
 
Rapscallion said:
So if they were correct to ignore this advice, why were they correct to accept the advice not to lockdown as per your article?
My point is that the right wing commentators are selectively choosing the advice the Gov. should be following, excusing the government form acting early.
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And you don't selectively chose what "news" you want to highlight?
 
Jelster said:
...

A lot of PPE has a shelf life so I understand, so that would need replacing periodically. .
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A lot is made of that but you would make sure not to buy it all at once (or with different EOL dates and then either use the stuff nearing EOL or sell it off, at a discount, to be used,
 
sphexx said:
A lot is made of that but you would make sure not to buy it all at once (or with different EOL dates and then either use the stuff nearing EOL or sell it off, at a discount, to be used,
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Which is what the government already does, for example, with military equipment and supplies.
 
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
 
Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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Oh, bloody hell.

I'm so sorry. :(
 
It's just horrible, as is this f*****g virus and there's no real end in sight until it either kills everyone its gonna get through "herd immunity" or a vaccine, neither of which are gonna happen or can happen in a short space of time.

One thing its really shown me I think, is the salient fact that while it is hitting globally, every country doing things its own way, experts or not, actually only seem to give a s*** about how their own country and that's being generous. Sadly there is no true global work or partnerships in this at all, while we continue to lose some of the most precious people we know.
 
It seems to me that the best thing us civilians can do is follow the rules and be especially careful to avoid accidents. The last thing we should do is increase the load on the NHS and other emergency services.
 
Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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That is so sad.
 
Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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A tragic story, and my sympathy goes out to all who shared their life with her.
 
Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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Words are not enough ... sorry ... and thanks for writing that.
 
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Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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Perhaps those that don't stay in doors when clearly doing so would cause them no harm should be made aware of what can happen to others might cause some them to bloody well STAY IN.
 
Donnie said:
Ah well, just another day at work for me in the NHS, you know, taking care of a preterm baby, baby of a nurse that worked at my hospital, a nurse that was well loved, a nurse married with another child, a nurse that was on maternity leave and was ill, a nurse that was admitted to hospital, a nurse that tested positive for covid19 and had to have the baby early by c section, a nurse that was 28 years old and sadly a nurse that will now never see her children grow up.

RIP.
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That is a tragedy. A very distressful story.
 
I hope that we are not in for a shock with this virus. I.E. that immunity is not guaranteed to follow infection.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/do-coronavirus-survivors-have-immunity-from-reinfection-maybe

From the Bloomberg article (14 April):-
"Immunity is a spectrum. Some viruses result in life-long protection, such as those that cause chickenpox and measles. On the other end of that spectrum, human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, doesn’t usually provide any protective shield.
When it comes to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, little is known yet about the body’s immune response to an infection, said George Rutherford, the head of infectious disease and global epidemiology at the University of California San Francisco. That’s something that’s going to take a while to figure out.”
 
"New Zealand’s prime minister has said she and other ministers will take a 20% pay cut lasting six months to show solidarity with those affected by the coronavirus outbreak, as the death toll continues to rise.

Jacinda Ardern said it was important the government’s most highly paid politicians show “leadership and solidarity” with workers on the frontline and those who had lost their livelihoods. Ardern, government ministers and public service chief executives will take the cut for six months, effective immediately."



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-cut-in-solidarity-with-those-hit-by-covid-19
 
sphexx said:
Some actual numbers for a change (USA of course):

“GM says that it will ship the first 600 ventilators by the end of April, with "almost half the order" ready by the end of June and the full 30,000 by the end of August“.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/04/general-motors-first-ventilators-are-ready-for-delivery/
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I wonder if they'll have the same issues we've had, I'm guessing not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-thousands-of-bluesky-ventilators-coronavirus
 
sphexx said:
Converting CPAP machines to do some ventilator functions in an emergency situation. Interesting, and hopeful if practical, though the manufacturer seems doubtful/sluggish, though that could be “not invented here” syndrome :(. :

Medical device “jailbreak” could help solve the dangerous shortage of ventilators

https://arstechnica.com/information...ow-cost-medical-devices-act-like-ventilators/
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Nope, just read that and it's not feasible as even if it does jailbreak the CPAP function, it will only add BiPap function and is NOTHING like a ventilator whatsoever so its basic ignorance or sensationalism. If they were able to jailbreak it to ventilator like function then it needs CMV, SIPPV, SIMV, VG, PS, and maybe even HFO.

And really, thousands of these machines are gathering dust in cupboards? Come off it.
 
Donnie said:
Nope, just read that and it's not feasible as even if it does jailbreak the CPAP function, it will only add BiPap function and is NOTHING like a ventilator whatsoever so its basic ignorance or sensationalism. If they were able to jailbreak it to ventilator like function then it needs CMV, SIPPV, SIMV, VG, PS, and maybe even HFO.

And really, thousands of these machines are gathering dust in cupboards? Come off it.
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Thanks, it did seem unlikely. It doesn’t say in the article, and I have no idea of the difference between CPAP (which I’ve only head of before in connection with sleep apnoea) and BiPAP but the possible benefit seemed to me to be that they might be used on non-coronavirus patients who are on ventilators freeing those up for CV patients. It seems an unlikely scenario though:(.
 
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