Blank_Canvas
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The great TP election thread
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BBR
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But true.
BBR
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Deficit is falling, it's the national debt that continues to climb.
(that much talk about `deficit` it's burned into my brain 
)
OldCarlos
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The debt/deficit clock http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/ 
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dejongj
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I could be wrong, but was pretty certain the deficit has come down, yes borrowing has had to increase but that isn't the same.
dejongj
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And you are doing it again. That is debt not deficit, and it is much worse than that as labour never wanted us to know the pension liabilities for civil servants. That party just cannot be trusted with the financial management of this country.The debt/deficit clock http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/
cambsno
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Erm was basically a pre euro thing which shows that we need to keep a distance from Brussels. That was over 20 years ago though as was the labour of the 70s. Hardly relevant now. It's the recent history that counts. Facts show that labour left a mess 5 years ago and the coalition has got us to be the best economy in Europe (and as someone who despises Cameron it frustrates me to say that).
What worries me about the election is how stupid people are like a friends wife saying that if conservatives get in we would lose the nhs. Yeah right. If they wanted to they could have done it when in power this time or last time. Even if they wanted to it would be such a vote loser that they would not get elected for 20+ years! At times politicians are stupid but that would be like a turkey voting for Christmas.
It really puzzles me why people and politicians spend more time slagging off opposition. In sales you don't do that, you simply highlight why you are better. If I was Ed I would admit that the coalition plan has worked well, BUT labour would add x, y and z to that plan to make it even better.
At times though I really do worry about policy decisions. Have highlighted Cameron's I'll thought out child benefit changes but the one Ed talked about on Thursday about stopping fees from letting agents to tenants is equally as stupid. Let's say that happens, all agents will do is take that amount and put that onto landlords fees who will then increase rents so that the end result is that nothing has changed.
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I know what ERM was! My point was that the Tories failed to predict what would happen. And it may have been 20 years ago, but one Treasury official during that crisis is now our Chancellor of the Exchequer.
StewartR
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You know what? Maybe, just maybe, he learned from the experience. I did some pretty stupid things 20 years ago. I get you did too. Doesn't mean we keep on doing stupid things.
Bobsyeruncle
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What do you mean?
OldCarlos
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Come down? We were told it would have been eliminated during the last 5 years!
It's a bit like football clubs saying they made a profit last year............ even though they are umpteen millions in debt.
Which ever way you look at it, it aint good.
dejongj
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Just highlights how big the mess was left by the last lot. Deficit going down is important though, much more important of an indicator than debt.
dejongj
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How will we struggle and why if they get back in? The UK is doing really well compared to our close neighbours. And as you said, there is still quite some deficit. The only way to reduce that is to reduce spending.
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I've just opened this thread and only read a couple of the opening posts so I may be way off but here's my views...
I've always regarded myself as a socialist and always voted Labour apart from at the last election when I voted for an independent socialist.
I've become increasingly disenchanted with Labour and what I see as their slow drift away from the common man (man in the widest sense as a species and including, obviously, women.) Living outside of Middlesbrough I was also annoyed at Labours apartment indifference to the troubles our local steel works went through too. And then there's their economic record. Giving everyone a council job for life isn't the answer IMVHO.
As the NHS seems to be the political football of the moment I'd agree that it should be given a high priority and I'd like to see more taken under the NHS, care for the elderly and the like, but I see the economy as the key to maintaining and improving the NHS and other much loved and valued things. I'd like to see a near full employment UK with high earnings bringing in mucho taxation that can be used to pay off the national debt and then plough more into the NHS and pay for great schools and everything else that any socialist or indeed any right minded person would want for a first world developed democracy.
And another thing... watching the debate the other night I do wonder what's going to happen at the election as at the moment it seems to me that the most popular candidates are the ones pushing the message that everyone in the country can have a job for life on £28k, we can have all of the schools and hospitals and everything that we can ever dream of and there's no need to even give a moments thought to debt or the future our children and grandchildren will face.
I've always regarded myself as a socialist and always voted Labour apart from at the last election when I voted for an independent socialist.
I've become increasingly disenchanted with Labour and what I see as their slow drift away from the common man (man in the widest sense as a species and including, obviously, women.) Living outside of Middlesbrough I was also annoyed at Labours apartment indifference to the troubles our local steel works went through too. And then there's their economic record. Giving everyone a council job for life isn't the answer IMVHO.
As the NHS seems to be the political football of the moment I'd agree that it should be given a high priority and I'd like to see more taken under the NHS, care for the elderly and the like, but I see the economy as the key to maintaining and improving the NHS and other much loved and valued things. I'd like to see a near full employment UK with high earnings bringing in mucho taxation that can be used to pay off the national debt and then plough more into the NHS and pay for great schools and everything else that any socialist or indeed any right minded person would want for a first world developed democracy.
And another thing... watching the debate the other night I do wonder what's going to happen at the election as at the moment it seems to me that the most popular candidates are the ones pushing the message that everyone in the country can have a job for life on £28k, we can have all of the schools and hospitals and everything that we can ever dream of and there's no need to even give a moments thought to debt or the future our children and grandchildren will face.
OldCarlos
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I obviously don't know your individual position, or anyone else's, but when I said `we` I was referring to the majority of the population inc the least well off (society as a whole)
There are greater cuts to welfare & services to come. Probably larger than we've already had to endure over the past 5 yrs. Hard times to come if the Tories got back in.
We MAY have done better than other countries, but that doesn't mean everything is fine. Far from it in fact.
I agree with Alan re. Labours drift away from the common man. (& all parties drift away from common sense)
Although I'm basically a Socialist/old Labour, I've voted Tory too in the past, so don't just vote for who I've always voted for and I'm open minded.
After watching the `debate` (which really wasn't a proper debate, just a forum for spouting off) I just feel depressed about the way things are & not that hopeful for the long term future of society.
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dejongj
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Ok so how will we struggle then? Sorry but you didn't actually say anything in that post.
Or perhaps to put it differently, how would you reduce the deficit in a sustainable manner.
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I mean what I wrote.
We have a housing crisis - house prices and rents are unaffordable for young people or those on low/modest wages.
Instead of dealing with the root cause - a shortage of housing stock - they've kept interest rates at historically low levels, pumped credit into the banking system and then compounded the situation with ill-advised projects like Help-to-buy and the new ISA, which have helped a tiny number of people at the expense of everyone else.
Rant over.
boyfalldown
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Don't know you could try
Selling our 'investment' in the banks. I know that wouldn't work BTW, it was a bit tongue in cheek.
Not cutting taxes.
Encouraging real growth thereby increasing tax revenues rather then schemes which discourage it and create added debt.
I know, pie in the sky stuff
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I think that the warning signs are there to be seen if the UK government and people want to take note. If we carry on living on borrowed money eventually we'll have to face the consequences. Anyone remember the IMF coming in and telling our then Labour government how to run the country? Anyone remember the 70's?
We can't pay most of the population to be consumers of wealth rather than generators of wealth if the sums don't add up and to date they haven't. You can do it for years and get away with it as indeed we have been doing but if you just plough on regardless paying huge numbers of people to do nothing or to sit in council offices doing meaningless jobs when there isn't enough money coming in to cover it eventually the IMF or the Germans or the Chinese or someone else who happens to be holding the purse will be stood shaking their head and saying "No More" and then you're... up the creek and the come down will be savage.
We can cancel austerity and we can raid the piggy bank, eat all the jam in the pantry and squeeze the rich and tax industry until they all move to Rumania and it wont help. These things are only tinkering at the edges. Doing these things will probably postpone the apocalypse for a few years and we can go on feasting on imaginary wealth for a bit longer but one day it'll end and the UK could make Greece look like a land of milk and honey.
It all comes down to what we want to do. If we want to leave a £1.5 trillion and rising debt to the children then we can make that choice. Personally I'd rather stand up and face the music and I think it's selfish and irresponsible to do otherwise. Sadly anyone who comes forward with a real plan to get the UK out of the mess it's in wont get elected as I suspect "we'd" rather vote for someone offering us £28k and a pointless council job for life.
On a positive note... if it all looks like hitting the fan one early issue might well be rising interest rates. I remember years ago I was getting more interest from a modest amount in a building society than I got from my work. That was great for me and it will be again. I'm almost tempted to vote Labour, watch them screw the economy and sit back and watch the dosh roll in... and then I'll flit East. Anyone remember interest rates of 15%+?
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cambsno
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So the answer? Austerity was the only thing that would get us back on track. Or would you rather we had the greek or spanish economies?
Think of it like this, I take home £2k pm but my outgoings come to £3.5k. So I can either carry on as I do and basically go bust, or I can reduce spending while I try to earn a bit more. Increase those numbers many times and that what the county is in. No-one wanted austerity... but we were spending too much, and there needs to be cuts. Remember that Labout massively overspent, had the kept a better balance of the books, the cuts needed now would not need to be so severe.
dejongj
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Selling the investment would be a one off windfall. It won't do anything to reduce a deficit.
Similarly by increasing tax revenues. Whilst it will mask the deficit in the short term it isn't a long term solution. The only was to get a deficit down by reducing the costs. Heck, who do you think will end up paying for labours suggested 10% increase in corporation tax. Yes that will be you and I
cambsno
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I mean what I wrote.
We have a housing crisis - house prices and rents are unaffordable for young people or those on low/modest wages.
Instead of dealing with the root cause - a shortage of housing stock - they've kept interest rates at historically low levels, pumped credit into the banking system and then compounded the situation with ill-advised projects like Help-to-buy and the new ISA, which have helped a tiny number of people at the expense of everyone else.
Rant over.
Firstly I agree that house prices in many areas (in the south east) make things tough for 1st time buyers (not helped by the fact that a mortgage is much harder to get now than 10 years ago). However, in recession, you have to reduce interest rates. For most, a mortgage is the biggest expense (actually make that the wife!). In recession people earn less bonus, maybe lose hours and get wage freezes or cuts... by having low rates it helps a lot - otherwise people would be needing to find another £100-£200 a month to cover this. Don't know enough about right to buy to comment.
Thing is, a housing crash would lead to people not spending which would damage the economy and quickly send us back into recession.
Its also the Bank of England who set rates, not governments.
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There wouldn't be a crash if there hadn't been a bubble to start with.
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Yes, for which we have to thank that 'economically-inept' Labour government, who did it as their first act after 3 terms of conservative majority.
Isn't confirmation bias an extraordinary thing?
dejongj
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They've had 13 years to demonstrate that that works which it didn't. Not saying it can't but at the moment spending our way out of it isn't a clever thing to do. We got to control ongoing costs.
boyfalldown
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Selling the investment would be a one off windfall. It won't do anything to reduce a deficit.
Similarly by increasing tax revenues. Whilst it will mask the deficit in the short term it isn't a long term solution. The only was to get a deficit down by reducing the costs. Heck, who do you think will end up paying for labours suggested 10% increase in corporation tax. Yes that will be you and I
You'll think me stupid but investing or bailing out the banks got us into this state. I realise we wouldn't recover what was spent, but why would that windfall not reduce the deficit. Surely if you used the windfall to clear part of the national debt then you'd reduce deficit by clearing the interest payments if nothing else.
Same with tax, if you increase tax intake then surely that is another way of decreasing a deficit. I'm not advocating greater tax rates btw
dejongj
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If you honestly think that guaranteeing a fund for loans and bailing out a bank got us in this mess, then yes I do think your are very misguided.
boyfalldown
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I think that running any deficit during economic good times ( as the last government did) is foolish. But it wasn't one bank, and bailing them out accounted for the majority of this mess.
dejongj
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Ok two the. And yes it is a lot of money but not enough to cause the mess. That happened long before then, just take a look at the deficit that was being run, that was much larger than investments in the failing banks. And then there is the huge pension liability.
boyfalldown
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If that's the case why (& I agree deficits from numerous preceding governments probably were foolish) why the massive and sudden increase during the crisis over the years 2007-2010
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Because they spent the money on civil service wages and PFI interest, not directly on infrastructure.
Interest rates are stupidly low at the moment. Let's borrow and invest in projects that have a return on investment far higher than the cost. 5 years in and all we've got is a 20-year delayed Crossrail.
Bobsyeruncle
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So your answer is to put rates up, borrow more at a higher rate of interest and spend our way out of recession?