The Great Meteorological Thread

Been a while since I issued one of these.

* * * EARLY WEATHER WARNING for Strong Winds and Heavy Rain * * *

For Southern England on Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

A compact but deepening low pressure system is expected to move in from the south west and move eastward/northeastwards along Southern England during the course of Saturday and into the night before finally exiting out into the North Sea on Sunday morning.
While there'll be a fair amount of rain, it's the wind that will be much more the issue. That is likely to reach gale force to storm force with up to 80 mph gusts along the South Coast as this low pressure slides by us.

Any news or fine tunings (hopefully a downgrade or perhaps the low pressure moves further south along Northern France) in the model outputs will be typed up in here.

Naturally, most of the UK, especially over the Western side is already saturated enough as it were due to heavy squally rain today so that won't help it not one bit.
 
Thanks for that Ian :p
I have just had a day of that, up here in the NW (fleetwood)
I guesstimate the winds @ between 40-50mph
and horizontal rain with it! (although I am in quite an exposed area,
right by the estuary.)
It started a little after 8am and is still at it now too :(
There was a slight change though, when it got HEAVIER for an hour
mid afternoon.
 
Cobra said:
Thanks for that Ian :p
I have just had a day of that, up here in the NW (fleetwood)
I guesstimate the winds @ between 40-50mph
and horizontal rain with it! (although I am in quite an exposed area,
right by the estuary.)
It started a little after 8am and is still at it now too :(
There was a slight change though, when it got HEAVIER for an hour
mid afternoon.
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Hi Chris! It's been quite sunny here for most of the day, but rather on the windy side. But that's because the squall line over the West of the UK hasn't reached here yet (should be here in the small hours of tonight, assuming it remains active).
 
Ian D J said:
Been a while since I issued one of these.

* * * EARLY WEATHER WARNING for Strong Winds and Heavy Rain * * *

For Southern England on Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday morning.

A compact but deepening low pressure system is expected to move in from the south west and move eastward/northeastwards along Southern England during the course of Saturday and into the night before finally exiting out into the North Sea on Sunday morning.
While there'll be a fair amount of rain, it's the wind that will be much more the issue. That is likely to reach gale force to storm force with up to 80 mph gusts along the South Coast as this low pressure slides by us.

Any news or fine tunings (hopefully a downgrade or perhaps the low pressure moves further south along Northern France) in the model outputs will be typed up in here.

Naturally, most of the UK, especially over the Western side is already saturated enough as it were due to heavy squally rain today so that won't help it not one bit.
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Already arrived in the SW, the house is being bombarded by other people's recycling boxes etc! :gag:
 
gramps said:
Already arrived in the SW, the house is being bombarded by other people's recycling boxes etc! :gag:
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Ouch! That does sound lively! My house faces the Strait Of Dover (have a clear view of the sea from my front garden) so things might get lively around here in the wee small hours - so I hope the roof is still attached to my house when I wake up tomorrow morning.
 
As Gramps says - it's arrived !
House is being lashed by rain with a violence and intensity I've rarely seen in the 12 years I've lived here.
Electricity supply has been flicking off for brief moments; that'll be the the wind.

Ian - I presume this isn't the storm you are warning us about and that it is still to come !!!!!!!!!
 
DuncanDisorderly said:
As Gramps says - it's arrived !
House is being lashed by rain with a violence and intensity I've rarely seen in the 12 years I've lived here.
Electricity supply has been flicking off for brief moments; that'll be the the wind.

Ian - I presume this isn't the storm you are warning us about and that it is still to come !!!!!!!!!
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Unfortunately, my warning ISN'T referring to this one. What's happening now is a squall line that is currently crossing eastwards over England as I type.

The one over the weekend is different in that it's associated with a deepening low pressure system moving in from the south west and crossing eastwards over Southern England.
 
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Pretty squally here too. High winds, rain...damn cold...Welcome to Sittingbourne lol
 
The rain seems to have quit here now,
I guess its travelling south.
Its still pretty windy out there though !
 
Morning all. The models are still sticking to the idea of a deepening low pressure system crossing north-east wards over Southern England during the course of tonight, exiting out into the North Sea tomorrow morning (continuing to deepen as it does so). That will bring gale force winds to Southern England tonight and then the South East and Eastern England in the early hours and into tomorrow morning.
With that to mind, the weather warning is still very much in force and I shall be watching the radars and charts like a hawk in the next 24 hours as I keep getting flash backs of the Great Storm of 87.

But I can offer some saving graces.

1) When the winds does pick up, it'll be coming in from the W or SW, rather than straight in from the sea so those living to the lee side of hills and buildings might be spared the worse of it - but not those on west-facing slopes and coasts, though!
2) It's occurring on a Sunday so there's no rush hour as everyone try to get to work.
3) The bulk of the rain will have passed on well before the wind kicks in, so it's the wind more than the rain that will be the issue - although the ground is already heavily saturated as it were anyway.
4) Could have been early October while the sea surface and surface air are warmer = more energy for the low pressure to feed on.

In the past, I've seen how the winds picks up ahead of a frontal system and then drops back once the front passes over us (eg: last Thursday) - but here it looks like being stronger once the rain passes over us (going to be a wet day over Southern England today).

I'm not too worried about the following low pressure system for Monday morning as that looks less intense but is still going to deliver even more rain to the UK (but less of the wind).
I think once we get through tomorrow morning, then the worst of the wind would be behind us as it all calms down by the afternoon but is going to remain wet thereafter for the next few days . . . not to mention it turning colder with things taking on a more wintry note over Scottish high ground and even possibly over Eastern England later.
 
DuncanDisorderly said:
Thanks Ian..
It's utterly miserable here in Somerset at the moment.
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Much the same here, raining but at the moment the winds are quite calm. The longer it stays calm until the gusty stuff hits us tonight, the better. :D

Until then, hope this cartoon cheers things up a bit:

No177of365-Forecast.jpg
 
Not as ferocious as expected here today, wet but winds quite tame ... hope it stays that way!
 
Blowing a full on gale, but thankfully rain is not at all being an issue here, whereas the South West is in a real mess with flooding caused by continuous heavy rain, especially around the Dawlish area.
 
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Last night's winds were only about as bad as the squall I posted about a couple of evenings ago, but lasted longer.
And boy did it rain!

Sun is about to make an appearance and almost no wind!
Forecast looks as though the next big band of rain and wind will arrive later in the day :(
 
Mornin' all from a sunny Folkestone, even though the wind did kick up a fuss, thankfully it wasn't of the damaging stuff. We also got off VERY lightly rain-wise when compared to the rest of the UK (only 0.3 mm fell last night).
 
Been blowing a gale overnight here Ian. No rain to speak of though. Still windy now but much calmer and bright sunshine :)
 
Looked bad from news shots of the river going through Exeter this morning ... don't think it would hold much more.
 
Indeed, the wet and changable conditions are going to keep going into the coming working week with showers (some hail and thunder) and longer outbreaks of rain. It'll also be slowly turning turning colder in the process so sleet and snow may become a regular occurance over high ground at first and then possibly at sea level over Scotland and Eastern England by the end of the week (a long way off, though).
However, it does look like we have seen the last of this strong Atlantic wind for quite a while, so I can live with that as I hate windy weather (has a habit of breaking things).
 
Hope everyone is keeping well and safe despite the continued risk of flood (as rainwater needs time to drain away, tricky when at this time of the year the water table is higher).
Still, at least the rest of the week is set to go along on a more uneventful fashion with more in the way of drier and brighter spells. Although a few wintry-like showers may tend to pepper north and east-facing coastal areas of the UK as we go into the tail end of the week. However, the cold spell (or rather, not quite so mild spell) is expected to be short lived with the Atlantic resuming it's influence as we go into next week - but that's me getting ahead of myself.

In the meantime, here's a couple of cartoons to put a smile on your face.

No179-ProgrammePlanner.jpg


No180-Snowplough.jpg
 
michael23 said:
Coldest one so far here last night down to -6.1°c and is currently sitting at -5.9°c. Black ice warning has been issued too.
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Mornin' Michael. Brrrrr, that's baltic compared to here. My location very rarely get to experience those kind of temperatures except in perhaps the deepest of real harsh cold snaps due to Kent being a peninsular type set up (sea to the south, west and north of us thus preventing it from getting really cold).
However, I did wake up to an actual proper frost this morning as temperatures fell down to 1.2 C - thus making it the first official frosty morning of the season. Car and house roofs are still frost coated as I type this at 8.45 am.
We get our real proper cold temperatures as winds comes in from the east or south east, straight in from the near continent.
 
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I had to de-ce the car at about noon today in order to come to work :eek:
Ian if fell to below freezing here last night.
 
Looks like we might scrape a frost at first tonight, but then increasing cloud in from the north may have the effect of lifting temperatures to above freezing as we go deeper into the night.
There is a chance of some places catching the odd bit of wintry shower as a weakening front moves southwards over England tomorrow.

But for now, here's a dig at a certain newspaper.

No183-Snowstorm.jpg
 
Evening all. This morning, I woke up to a clear and frosty start to the day, now it's windy and raining as I type. We seem to have gone from Winter back to Autumn.
However, all eyes towards the east next week as we expect to get our first taste of proper wintry weather. Probably last for about two to three days in the middle of the week with snow likely to affect the Eastern side of the UK.
 
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Trying hard to snow here Ian. Soooo cold.
 
viv1969 said:
Trying hard to snow here Ian. Soooo cold.
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Brrrrr, hi Ruth! It's certainly being a filthy night tonight, wouldn't like to be a homeless tramp.
I'm expecting winds to touch gale force along the coast for a time tonight, thus adding to the chill factor.
 
I take comfort from the fact that the local "Santa" character is currently doing his fundraising rounds in our neibourhood, nd perhaps he might freeze to death :)
 
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