What a thoughtful and balanced post. I shall have to spend some time thinking about the rather complex and intriguing arguments you have made. I take it the middle east is a speciality of yours?
Although in the past I spent time working in several of the affected countries I am no expert on Middle East matters.
We all have our views, which may or may not be useful, but my interest in this thread was in the one question which I thought was now relevant at this time for the UK ........ can we the UK, make a difference in the region?
my views are as follows ...... not really complicated or even complex
It is worrying how the civil war in Syria has developed into a regional Sunni-s***te war in Syria/Iraq, but this was probably inevitable after Iraq ……….. how particular Gulf States, (certain of which are US allies), originally openly funded IS and how this is developing.
The Sunni-s***te war has reached the Saudi border and with the involvement of Iran the Saudi’s are more likely to strengthen their ties with Pakistan with the purchase of further nuclear technology and maybe weapons. The US has no option but to support the Saudi’s but the dynamics in that country could dramatically change as IS increase its influence and and wealth. This has spread to the Yemen where the Iran backed Shiite rebels are flighting the Saudis on their border.
Egypt is moving closer to Moscow and away from US influence………. Sunni Saudi have always been a strong US ally. Russia have always supported Assad’s regime, a natural enemy of Saudi.
The price of oil is important and the Saudi’s could easily flood the market with cheap oil which would hurt the fragile Russian economy.
In particular the financial support that Kuwait has given to rebel groups and the way that Turkey have been involved as a conduit for the movement of money to IS and indeed how Turkey has involved itself in the purchase of IS oil is also worrying. This is quite ironic in that IS are now aligned with the forces that supported the Baathist party in Iraq.
So to give my view on the simple question that I asked .....................There is very little that the UK can do militarily, we are not strong on that front and politically we are now irrelevant in the region.... on the aid front it is complicated to know what to do next
so, should the UK intervene? - not at all - it would serve no purpose and we would be ineffective……. we can only sit back and watch the wild fire spread.....
what's going to happen to the price of oil and it's effect on the world economy is relevant to the UK ...... anyones guess at this time; but I am sure the forecasting models in the worlds financial centres are working overtime to pick up any signs.
we should all be concerned about the wider implications of what is happening and the political solution that must eventually come.... ask Tony, even he can only keep so many balls in the air at once?
or even
mischievously from an investment standpoint - should you/I sell my oil company shares? .... probably yes
why do you reckon "Sunni Jim"