Based on what I've seen, I think Obama will win. There's a variety of reasons. I've watched the three debates so far live. The two Presidential debates and the VP debate and both left me in no doubt who is more focused, more organised and more informed.
Obama has delivered his speeches, his proposals and his ideas articulately. He's focused on the middle classes and readdressing the issues raised by the current administration. He's also not run his campaign on negative issues and by that I mean attempting to discredit the character of McCain. McCain on the other hand has stumbled and stuttered his way through the two televised debates and probably will again tonight, and I can guarantee he'll be out to get Obama's character, again.
I also think that, regardless of McCain's maverick properties, he's still a Republican, and in America that's going to be a problem given what's gone on over the past 7 and a half years. He's also focused on Obama's character, running adverts about Obama's past and acquaintances. They've tried to belittle his role as a community organiser... possibly one of the most important roles in terms of youth development and community/grass roots regeneration. If you can't take the future seriously at a working class level, then how can you take your country's future seriously at a Presidential level.
I could go on all night. I'm really excited about the election this year. I find the whole process intriguing.