Nikon mirrorless definitely on the way

[simonbarker]

I do think dslr and mirrorless are two different markets yes, of course they are.

That would make sense if you believe they will continue to produce DSLR and mirrorless bodies across the range but I think it far more logical and likely that they will eventually move to a full mirrorless line up so I personally don't see them as different markets even if there's some separation at this very moment.

 

[Eloise]

Keep things back on topic, if Nikon went all in with mirrorless and managed to better the Sony A9, this would be great....

I'm assuming Nikon's first (full frame) mirrorless will be something around D750 / Sony A7III position.

 

[Riz_Guru]

I'm assuming Nikon's first (full frame) mirrorless will be something around D750 / Sony A7III position.

It will be hard to swallow if they can't keep the price point close to the Sony A7 III, which I doubt they can.

 

[Brazo]

Legally they ARE separate companies. They are aren't just different divisions - they may share a common owner but they are separate legally.

You said “if it’s not in the interests of Sony to sell to Nikon they won’t” but conversely when it IS in the interests of Sony Semiconductors to sell to Nikon, Sony Imaging won’t be able to stop them.

Sony Corporation will.

Sony Semi conductors is simply a subsidiary of the Sony Corporation.

 

[Brazo]

That would make sense if you believe they will continue to produce DSLR and mirrorless bodies across the range but I think it far more logical and likely that they will eventually move to a full mirrorless line up so I personally don't see them as different markets even if there's some separation at this very moment.

Yes I believe that will happen eventually too. Currently I do believe they are quite defined, professional users for example had no mirrorless camera until Sony introduced the A9.

What I find the most interesting is that the two giants canikon will have to start from scatch in this new market.

 

[Riz_Guru]

What I find the most interesting is that the two giants canikon will have to start from scratch in this new market.

And if they do, I think it's a double edged sword.......

A) If they start with new lens mounts, the loyalists wont be able to use their existing lenses unless they mount a lens adapter. This will add additional weight/length and cost to the body which won't perform as good as their new native counterparts.
B) if they keep the existing lens mount, Nikon won't make big money from their new system, they need to release a new lens mount so that people starting buying again.

With both options your going to have to buy into an entirely new system... why not just go with Sony if that's the case? They are already on their 3rd generation bodies.

 

[Eloise]

You won’t believe how many companies Tesco have but they all share one common interest.

Yes... MAKING MONEY!

When the most money comes from selling sensors not cameras, Sony Corp won't care if Sony Semiconductors sell to Nikon even if it cuts into Sony Imaging's business. Especially if they think selling sensors to Nikon will stop Nikon buying from Sony Semiconductors competitors.

 

[HoppyUK]

It will be hard to swallow if they can't keep the price point close to the Sony A7 III, which I doubt they can.

I'm not sure either Nikon or Canon needs to compete directly on price, or needs to deliver a total Sony-beating product either. Canikon's great strength is a vast pool of loyal users who are heavily invested in an expensive system of lenses. Providing their new mirrorless cameras are clearly 'good enough' on performance and value, and work perfectly with existing lenses, they will sell.

We're some years before mirrorless takes over as the default choice for everyone and an orderly phased changeover would certainly suit Canikon.

 

[Faldrax]

Yes I believe that will happen eventually too. Currently I do believe they are quite defined, professional users for example had no mirrorless camera until Sony introduced the A9.

I think you are being somewhat narrow in your definition of 'professional users' - people were able to make a living as a photographers using mirror-less cameras prior to the A9, though this would depend, to some extent, on the type of photography they did.

 

[Eloise]

With both options your going to have to buy into an entirely new system... why not just go with Sony if that's the case? They are already on their 3rd generation bodies.

Well Alpha model, Beta model and finally the release model . Perhaps Nikon (and Canon) have just kept the Alpha and Beta in house

(Just teasing! Hope you can take it!)

Of course there is (C) use a lens mount which is native compatible, but also release a range of bespoke mirrorless lenses. Yes you loose the smaller flange distance, and so the camera is slightly larger front to back (and so making it harder to use adapted lenses), but what other downsides are there?

Yes I believe that will happen eventually too. Currently I do believe they are quite defined, professional users for example had no mirrorless camera until Sony introduced the A9.

They are still the same "market" though. Most people buy a (interchangeable lens) Camera when they go into Jessops or LCE or look on Amazon, etc. Most people don't care if there is a mirror or not, its about how it operates in practical terms.

 

[JJ!]

Currently the DSLR market is still here.

As good as the A7 series are, they just do no appeal to everyone. The ergonomics just don't work for people who prefer a bigger camera, especially with large fast glass.

 

[Riz_Guru]

and work perfectly with existing lenses, they will sell.

They won't work as good as their new native lenses, so existing owners will have to change their lens setup. Nikon & Canon will handicap them in some way or another to drive the sales of their newer and more profitable lenses.
If Nikon and Canon allow older mount lenses to work as good as their new lenses line-up, it wont still well with their marketing and accounting divisions.
The are in this business to make money and unfortunately that may mean upsetting their existing user base who have their lenses and bodies and properly one change a body every time a replacement comes out.

 

[Eloise]

Sony Corporation will.

Sony Semi conductors is simply a subsidiary of the Sony Corporation.

Yes, but Sony Corporation will not say to Sony Semiconductors (and cannot anyway legally) you cannot sell to Nikon because we want to grow Sony Imaging, especially when Sony Imaging is a smaller customer than Nikon. For one thing if Nikon go to another manufacturer for their sensors (which they are already doing) that helps Sony Imaging competitors grow who then might "pinch" other customers.

What I'm saying is that Sony Corporation and Sony Semiconductors will do what is best for the overall business. That is (likely) to continue to sell to customers other than just Sony Imaging.

Given Sony Semiconductors dominant position, they would also likely face anti-trust cases if they started to cut off Nikon from their products (though that is just speculation).

 

[Brazo]

Yes... MAKING MONEY!

When the most money comes from selling sensors not cameras, Sony Corp won't care if Sony Semiconductors sell to Nikon even if it cuts into Sony Imaging's business. Especially if they think selling sensors to Nikon will stop Nikon buying from Sony Semiconductors competitors.

I absolutely agree with you but that’s the current situation in the dslr market. The ff mirrorless market only has one company making any money and that’s Sony.

Sony can’t sell to Nikon because they dont have a product. Sony would like to keep their market share so may be more cagey about selling sensors to a potential new competitor.

 

[Eloise]

They won't work as good as their new native lenses, so existing owners will have to change their lens setup. Nikon & Canon will handicap them in some way or another to drive the sales of their newer and more profitable lenses.
If Nikon and Canon allow older mount lenses to work as good as their new lenses line-up, it wont still well with their marketing and accounting divisions.
The are in this business to make money and unfortunately that may mean upsetting their existing user base who have their lenses and bodies and properly one change a body every time a replacement comes out.

I'm not saying you're wrong ... but the problem with your logic is that Nikon also know (or should know) that if they replace their lens mount then apart from blind brand loyalty, there is very little keeping Nikon users buying a Nikon mirrorless camera.

If Nikon and Canon allow older lenses to work well (I wouldn't say as good as because there has always been a progression especially with Nikon where AF lenses don't work as well as AF-S lenses and now E type diaphragm lenses are replacing the G type mechanical linkage lenses) then they don't sell as many new lenses, but it also means they don't need to produce as many new lenses either. They can come out with a mirrorless camera and immediately have the range of lenses available from Sony licked.

Canon are actually in a better position here than Nikon having redesigned their mount back in the 80s to make the EF mount dropping the FD mount.

 

[Eloise]

I absolutely agree with you but that’s the current situation in the dslr market. The ff mirrorless market only has one company making any money and that’s Sony.

Sony can’t sell to Nikon because they dont have a product. Sony would like to keep their market share so may be more cagey about selling sensors to a potential new competitor.

Your logic and argument all relies on dSLR and mirrorless being two separate markets. If you consider them as a whole, Sony don't have a dominant position in the ILC marketplace.

(Admittedly my logic and argument relies on the two camera types being the same market).

 

[Brazo]

Your logic and argument all relies on dSLR and mirrorless being two separate markets. If you consider them as a whole, Sony don't have a dominant position in the ILC marketplace.

(Admittedly my logic and argument relies on the two camera types being the same market).

This is true. When I refer to markets I am referring to the camera sensor commercial market not the Jessops consumer market.

Nikon are trying to break into the ff mirrorless market, which Sony own. It’s a very distinct (commercial) market. Sony won’t take it lieing down. Why would they welcome or help fledgling competition?

 

[HoppyUK]

They won't work as good as their new native lenses, so existing owners will have to change their lens setup. Nikon & Canon will handicap them in some way or another to drive the sales of their newer and more profitable lenses.
If Nikon and Canon allow older mount lenses to work as good as their new lenses line-up, it wont still well with their marketing and accounting divisions.
The are in this business to make money and unfortunately that may mean upsetting their existing user base who have their lenses and bodies and properly one change a body every time a replacement comes out.

The new mirrorless Canikon cameras will work 100% with existing lenses via an adapter. That's vital, so we will not need new lenses, but they will engineer it so we will all want new custom designed lenses, for whatever reason even if it's just cosmetic (they understand the power of GAS ). And it's certainly true that mirrorless offers an opportunity for better wide-angles, mirrorless AF may work better with different mechanisms, not to mention in-camera image stabilisation and video too.

So they will not miss out on a heaven-sent opportunity to sell a whole new set of lenses to every camera buyer. Something that doesn't apply to any new DSLR launch.

 

[Riz_Guru]

Maybe Nikon will get bought out by Sony?

Soninon A9 get in!

 

[Brazo]

The new mirrorless Canikon cameras will work 100% with existing lenses via an adapter. That's vital, so we will not need new lenses, but they will engineer it so we will all want new custom designed lenses, for whatever reason even if it's just cosmetic (they understand the power of GAS ). And it's certainly true that mirrorless offers an opportunity for better wide-angles, mirrorless AF may work better with different mechanisms, not to mention in-camera image stabilisation and video too.

So they will not miss out on a heaven-sent opportunity to sell a whole new set of lenses to every camera buyer. Something that doesn't apply to any new DSLR launch.

That’s exactly what Sony did at launch but adapted lenses have issues of their own so perhaps only an awkward temporary solution until they can start pumping out lenses.

 

[Eloise]

This is true. When I refer to markets I am referring to the camera sensor commercial market not the Jessops consumer market.
Nikon are trying to break into the ff mirrorless market, which Sony own. It’s a very distinct (commercial) market. Sony won’t take it lieing down. Why would they welcome or help fledgling competition?

Sony Semiconductors (may) help Nikon because its to their commercial advantage to be the partner of Nikon still who may be selling 500,000+ mirrorless cameras a year, even if the net result is that Sony Imaging loose 200,000 sales a year. Its to Sony Corporation's advantage because the alternative is TowerJazz (for example) be Nikon's partner; and Sony Imaging still loose 150,000 sales a year as well as loosing the 500,000 sensor sales. (Figures made up for illustration).

Yes Sony "own" the FF mirrorless market - but there is no competition there.

 

[Deleted member 49428]

And Canon will take a large bite of that just because of the brand recognition.

 

[HoppyUK]

Your logic and argument all relies on dSLR and mirrorless being two separate markets. If you consider them as a whole, Sony don't have a dominant position in the ILC marketplace.

(Admittedly my logic and argument relies on the two camera types being the same market).

Same market in terms of customers, two markets in terms of mirrorless vs DSLR, or lots of markets if you subdivide that into entry-level, mid-range and high-end etc, ditto lenses, and so it goes on.

 

[HoppyUK]

Sony Semiconductors (may) help Nikon because its to their commercial advantage to be the partner of Nikon still who may be selling 500,000+ mirrorless cameras a year, even if the net result is that Sony Imaging loose 200,000 sales a year. Its to Sony Corporation's advantage because the alternative is TowerJazz (for example) be Nikon's partner; and Sony Imaging still loose 150,000 sales a year as well as loosing the 500,000 sensor sales. (Figures made up for illustration).

Yes Sony "own" the FF mirrorless market - but there is no competition there.

The Sony position is interesting. They are very strong in the semi-conductor business, which is big and destined to get bigger. While the enthusiast camera market is small and getting smaller. Someone at the top of Sony Corp may make a strategic decision on that, perhaps in the same way as Samsung did when they exited the camera market. At the time, their mirrorless NX1 was a really good camera and arguably actually better than anything else, but it failed to gain market traction and the size of the prize wasn't worth chasing.

All this speculation is fun but we're all just guessing and hoping. We have no idea how all this sits with the individual manufacturers, where they are in terms of R&D, how much existing stock they have, what their manufacturing capability is etc etc. And nobody knows how it will all pan out over the next few years with fickle consumers, unknown rival activity and smartphones forever nibbling away at 'real' photography.

ps Nikon falls under the giant Mitsubishi umbrella. They will not want for resources.

 

[Jase]

But they ‘own’ the mirrorless market

Do Sony really own the mirrorless market? None of the stats I've seen up to now say that.

Also you have to remember that provided that Nikon & Canon produce a decent Mirrorless camera those people who presently have a DSLR and have been holding off will most likely end up buying that brand, any % advantage Sony presently have will be significantly reduced over night.

 

[jonneymendoza]

Do Sony really own the mirrorless market? None of the stats I've seen up to now say that.

Also you have to remember that provided that Nikon & Canon produce a decent Mirrorless camera those people who presently have a DSLR and have been holding out will most likely end up buying that brand, any % advantage Sony presently have will be significantly reduced out over night.

That will only happen in the expense of nailing a coffin on there existing DSLR lineup and also having the same sort of specced up body and lens lineup as the sony at present.

 

[JJ!]

In a way it’s a clever move by Nikon. With people on the fence about changing from Nikon to Sony, this might just keep them brand loyal for a bit longer.

Camera needs to be good though!

Saying that, I believe even if they released a D750 replacement it would keep a lot of us happy!

 

[Ste_S]

Legally they ARE separate companies. They are aren't just different divisions - they may share a common owner but they are separate legally.

You said “if it’s not in the interests of Sony to sell to Nikon they won’t” but conversely when it IS in the interests of Sony Semiconductors to sell to Nikon, Sony Imaging won’t be able to stop them.

Sony have history in this with the in-fighting of the various Sony divisions/departments. Playstation, Mobile, Cybershot, Walkman (rip) etc have all knobbled each other departments products so they don't step on each other's toes.
Sony ain't going to be selling the good stuff to Nikon that's for sure

 

[HoppyUK]

Do Sony really own the mirrorless market? None of the stats I've seen up to now say that.

Also you have to remember that provided that Nikon & Canon produce a decent Mirrorless camera those people who presently have a DSLR and have been holding out will most likely end up buying that brand, any % advantage Sony presently have will be significantly reduced out over night.

That's me exactly. My scheduled upgrade to a Canon 5D4 has been on hold for a while. I suspect there are lot of folks in the same position.

Buying a new Canon camera is a realistic proposition, swapping to Sony at £12k minimum cost is not.

 

[JJ!]

View: https://youtu.be/vimL2xdbqJ8


Some interesting points made some of which I agree with.

If Nikon bring out an adapter that works with current glass it will really give users a huge amount of lenses to choose from at the start.

They need to nail it though!

 

[Riz_Guru]

View: https://youtu.be/vimL2xdbqJ8


Some interesting points made some of which I agree with.

If Nikon bring out an adapter that works with current glass it will really give users a huge amount of lenses to choose from at the start.

They need to nail it though!

Sony had this early on with the metabones adaptors, the Nikon adapter will be a compromise, Nikon will want to push owners towards their new lenses.

 

[Brazo]

Do Sony really own the mirrorless market? None of the stats I've seen up to now say that.

Also you have to remember that provided that Nikon & Canon produce a decent Mirrorless camera those people who presently have a DSLR and have been holding off will most likely end up buying that brand, any % advantage Sony presently have will be significantly reduced over night.

I’m talking about the full frame market where Sony is the only manufacturer present so yes they own it!

Yes brand awareness may help canikon but it may also help Sony, unfortunately we are well into ‘ifs and buts’ here.

 

[Brazo]

In a way it’s a clever move by Nikon. With people on the fence about changing from Nikon to Sony, this might just keep them brand loyal for a bit longer.

Camera needs to be good though!

Saying that, I believe even if they released a D750 replacement it would keep a lot of us happy!

Me included D760 please!

 

[Brazo]

Sony had this early on with the metabones adaptors, the Nikon adapter will be a compromise, Nikon will want to push owners towards their new lenses.

Absolutely adapted lenses have all sorts of problems. I’ve been there and done that. Native lenses are the way forward.

You can fit any current Nikon lens onto a Sony A7 series camera via adaptor. But fact is you wouldn’t want to if you wanted optimum performance.

 

[Eloise]

Sony had this early on with the metabones adaptors, the Nikon adapter will be a compromise, Nikon will want to push owners towards their new lenses.

You mentioned this (the Sony adapter) earlier and I think suggested it didn’t work well: but wasn’t that more down to the (A7) cameras capabilities rather than the adaptor and if you put the same adaptor and lens on an A7III now the result is much more usable combination?

 

[jonneymendoza]

You still have some issues

 

[Canon Bob]

They won't work as good as their new native lenses,.

Which specific aspects do you think will be inferior?

 

[jonneymendoza]

Which specific aspects do you think will be inferior?

Af tracking and speed

 

[Riz_Guru]

Which specific aspects do you think will be inferior?

I see zero benefit to Nikon if they allowed their current lenses to operate like their native mirrorless offerings via a adaptor.
It would be a daft move financially.

 

[Eloise]

I’m talking about the full frame market where Sony is the only manufacturer present so yes they own it!

Yes brand awareness may help canikon but it may also help Sony, unfortunately we are well into ‘ifs and buts’ here.

I guess the closest comparison you can draw is that now Canon's APS-C mirrorless have taken off, they have pushed Sony backwards in market share.

Saying about market share; thats one thing you have to take into account. While Sony and the A7x series have been gaining market share, increases in sales have not been significant and the main reason for the market share increase is the falling back of Nikon's sales and the overall contraction of ILC market. IF (and again its a big if) people have been happy with their dSLR from the last few years and been waiting ... then Sony may get squeezed when Nikon and Canon's ILC strategy becomes clear.