tdodd
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A meter, of whatever kind, makes a guess. If you know what you're doing, usually a good guess, but it's easily fooled.
Ignoring evaluative/matrix metering for now....
Meters don't make guesses. They make measurements. To say the meter makes a guess is as daft as saying that a thermometer makes guesses, or that a car speedometer does, or a clock.
A thermometer does not tell you if it is too hot or too cold. It tells you the temperature. You get to decide whether that's right or wrong.
A speedo does not tell you whether you are going too fast or too slow. It tells you the speed you are doing. It's your decision whether the speed is appropriate.
A clock does not tell you whether you will be early or late. It tells you the time now. Is it past bedtime? Not a decision for the clock. Will you be late for the meeting? Not the clock's responsibility to decide. You read what the clock says. You decide how to interpret the data it provides. Is it lunchtime? Possibly. Are you hungry? How the frack should the clock know?
A camera meter does not make guesses. Stick the camera in manual exposure mode, meter (part of) the scene and the meter will tell you how much brighter, darker or equivalent to "middle grey" the part of the scene you are metering will be recorded. You get to choose how much brighter, darker or equal to "middle grey" you want that part of the scene to be.
If I spot meter my own palm with the camera at +1 1/3 is there guesswork involved? If I spot meter highlights at +3 is there guesswork involved? If I spot meter green grass at -2/3 is there guesswork involved? If I decide that there is no bright content (of importance) within my scene then I may increase the exposure by 1 stop in order to capture more shadow detail. Is that guesswork by the camera or by me? No. There is measurement, conscious decision making and total control over the exposure. IF there is any guesswork then it is by me, not the meter.
Does a Sekonic incident meter make guesses? What about the flash meter? What about the spot meter? None of them make guesses; they measure.
Now, if you're going to leave the exposure setting entirely up to the camera, without providing any input yourself, then sure, you could make the case that the camera is "guessing" at the right exposure, but really it isn't, except in the case of evaluative/matrix metering. In all the other metering modes it is quite dumb, assumes nothing, guesses nothing and is simply resolving the metered area to a "middle grey" tone. That's not guessing. That's maths and science.
There is a missing ingredient from this and that is human involvement, providing instruction to the camera on how much brighter or darker the metered element is than "middle grey". That's why cameras provide an exposure compensation control for autoexposure modes and a +/-3 stop (+/-2 stops on some cameras) meter to support manual metering. For anyone to suggest (and many do) that a correct exposure is indicated by a centred meter needle is as often as not a complete nonsense. It would be true if the metered area was equivalent in tone to "middle grey". For anything else it would be wrong advice. Sadly I've seen that advice spouted far too often.
Evaluative/matrix metering does result in a more considered outcome, but then the camera is making a judgement (guess) about what sort of scene you have. Quite frankly, based on the need to dial in EC for things like BIF and aircraft it isn't as intelligent (not as good at guessing) as photographers might wish. That's why I prefer to let the camera take care of scientific measurements (using spot metering) and I'll supply the intelligence (guesswork if you like) required to achieve an optimum exposure. The meter is guessing at nothing. People who get poor exposure results from their equipment either have faulty equipment (probably not likely) or are relying too much on their gear and not enough on themselves.
Chimping histograms and blinkies is all very well, and I make use of those features too. But it's a bit late to do that once the decisive moment has passed, which is why knowing how to meter before taking the shot is a skill worth having. Fortunately for me I usually prepare in advance, which means I not only meter and set exposure beforehand, but, if I have doubts, I can often fire off a test shot just to check.
I may have said it earlier (I'm not re-reading the whole thread) but if you want to chimp your results it is IMHO a waste of time to evaluate your exposure from the image on the back of the camera. Blinkies are a useful indicator and so is the histogram. The rest of the image is not. Use the image for assessing composition and possibly focus, not exposure, not white balance. It will probably mislead you.
FWIW I am always trying to improve my own metering skills, because I certainly don't get it right first time every time. The better I become the more pleased I am with my skills as a photographer. Chimping an image until it is correct gives me no sense of pride at all. There is no skill involved there. Any fool can chimp an image until finally it is correct. Nailing a shot first time (every time) - that's photography. Maybe one day I'll get to call myself a "Photographer". Right now I'm still practicing to become one.