Hi Jim! Everyone else can switch off now
I'm not sure how I can explain things any better, but I will say that I am not 'dismissing' incident metering. I even said I would recommend it for weddings, mainly on account of 'that dress' and the need to play safe.
But incident is far from perfect - that is one of the points I'm trying to make. If you shoot Raw then it will rarely give you settings that optimise the sensor's potential. Reading the histogram with the aid of blinkies will get you optimum exposure, easily, because it works off actual data. No meter can ever do that, because all meters are guessing at what the best exposure might be, and the inherant assumptions of an incident reading mean that it cannot produce an absolutely optimum result. A good reading sure, a consistent one, certainly. But not optimum.
You comment about "let's say there are no white tones" suggests you are not fully understanding what the histogram is showing. The business of optimum exposure is to match the dynamic range and important tones of the scene, with the dynamic range of the sensor. The histogram and blinkies will tell you when a tone is blown, which may or may not be white. The whole principle of Expose To The Right technique is to shift tones away from their nominal value in order to maximise the recording potential of the sensor, and you then pull them back into line in post.
Please try this. I did it myself this afternoon, just to try and put a figure on it. It only takes a couple of minutes. Back garden - shrubs, flowers, grass and leaves etc. No sky in the image. Cloudy. Incident reading from my Sekonic meter said 1/125sec at f/14. Histogram showed a lump in the middle, pretty much what you'd expect, but acres of space to the right.
I turned down the contrast on Picture Styles to min, and started reducing the f/number until the blinkies started flashing. By the time I got to 1/125sec at f/5, I was getting blinkies just visible as tiny specs off shiny leaves, but they were specular reflections and I was quite happy to let blow. Knocking back the exposure one stop held those reflections, had I wanted them.
So, by ignoring the incident meter reading and following the histogram, I was able to add two stops of exposure in absolute safety, and if I didn't mind the brightest highlights blowing to white (which I didn't, because they're supposed to be white anyway) I was able to add
three stops more exposure.
That is a massive amount more and, amongst other benefits, it puts hugely more detail and tone separation in the darker areas, with much less noise. I don't think that anyone who cares about getting the most from their camera can afford to ignore that kind of advantage. You need to see it for yourself, and know it's there to be exploited if you want.
BTW have you actually tried incident readings with the ExpoDisc, and compared them to a hand meter? It should work without any calibration.