Is the VW group going bust?

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Clive K said:
Envionmental effects of Lithium battery production



'Clean' electricity generation reliant on nuclear power

www.iea.org

Clean sources of generation are set to cover all of the world’s additional electricity demand over the next three years - News - IEA

Clean sources of generation are set to cover all of the world’s additional electricity demand over the next three years - News from the International Energy Agency
www.iea.org www.iea.org
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Unlike fossil fuel, where it is one time consumable. Once mined, lithium can be recycled from one battery to the next. We need a lot right now by mining, but in the future it will all come from recycled lithium. Even right now, it may seem like replacing one evil with another. But mining of lithium for battery is nothing compared to the global operation that is mining and refining for a one time use consumable.

Li-on battery production is covered in the whole-life carbon emissions calculation I posted earlier.

Nuclear generation is very clean in its use, it produces vastly lower climate change carbon emissions than fuel burning plants (include "green" biomass). The only concern is waste management, which is already under intense scrutiny.

Did you know, coal power plant decommissioning also involves dealing with radioactive materials. I didn't until recently talking about decommissioning UK's last coal plants. https://www.epa.gov/radtown/radioactive-wastes-coal-fired-power-plants


But the power of connected batteries enabled by mass EV adoption is that more unpredictable renewables can be brought online without its generation going to waste. Renwables give super cheap electricity when conditions are right, and batteries empower people to use those very cheap energy.
Cheap renewables: https://www.octopusenergygeneration.com/fan-club/

Thus, nuclear provides base load that cannot be flexible, I'd argue UK will have enough nuclear after Hinkley Point C. Build renewables everywhere and batteries everywhere charged extremely cheaply when the conditions are right.
 
wyx087 said:
Out of interest, how much did you sell it for?
I guess your buyer plugged in a dongle and read health on their phone using LeafSpy?
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Not sure and not sure, I'm afraid - it was Mrs Nod's deal so she dealt with it!
 
Re Lithium, atmo it's mined but that's changing.
There is enough Lithium in the world's oceans to make car batteries for the next forty thousand years plus* (assuming Lithium is even used in car batteries going forward). Tests are ongoing to find a viable way to filter the Lithium from sea water, early stage yet but serious money is involved so it will not be long before we see commercial Lithium filtering, doing away with mining all together.

* approx 180 billion tonnes of the stuff.
 
Steep said:
Tests are ongoing to find a viable way to filter the Lithium from sea water,
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Removing lithium in substantial quantities is likely to significantly affect marine life, so don't bank on it being un unlimited resource.
 
Audi Quarter 3 have reported profits down

In Q3 alone, the operating profit plummeted 91% to €106 ($116) million. The company largely blamed this on “restructuring expenses due to the reorganization of the Audi Brussels plant.” While the picture isn't rosy, Audi noted they're updating their lineup and have introduced 15 new models in 2024.
 
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ancient_mariner said:
Removing lithium in substantial quantities is likely to significantly affect marine life, so don't bank on it being un unlimited resource.
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180 plus billion tonnes!... In 2023 180 thousand tonnes was mined worldwide for every device that uses it, that's 1 millionth of the capacity of the oceans, if you did it for a thousand years you wouldn't make a dent in a gnats knee comparitively.

Seriously, the way technology is going I doubt they'll have time to develop a way to remove the lithium in commercially viable quantities before Lithium is not longer required.
 
Steep said:
180 plus billion tonnes!... In 2023 180 thousand tonnes was mined worldwide for every device that uses it, that's 1 millionth of the capacity of the oceans, if you did it for a thousand years you wouldn't make a dent in a gnats knee comparitively.

Seriously, the way technology is going I doubt they'll have time to develop a way to remove the lithium in commercially viable quantities before Lithium is not longer required.
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The sea isn't like the air, and taking out a thousand tons over a couple of years from a shallow water area is going to create a very big local change because there will be relatively little mixing.
 
Yeah, ok.
 
Will never buy a Chinese car, battery, petrol or pedal car, anyway, I asked my ev owning mates who (mostly) rave about them, why they have such big vehicles, bigger than their previous petrol cars, do they need such large vehicles for two occupants, no choice was a lot of the answers, no small evs available.
A lot of regular car changers just holding on to their vehicles longer, my toy is 15 year old, good for 10? More, her car 2 year old so good for lotsa years at the mileages we do, worst case, we’ll buy an ice just before the cut off and store it in the garage till it’s needed, at our age we might not be driving in 10 years anyway.
 
mj4456 said:
Will never buy a Chinese car, battery, petrol or pedal car, anyway, I asked my ev owning mates who (mostly) rave about them, why they have such big vehicles, bigger than their previous petrol cars, do they need such large vehicles for two occupants, no choice was a lot of the answers, no small evs available.
A lot of regular car changers just holding on to their vehicles longer, my toy is 15 year old, good for 10? More, her car 2 year old so good for lotsa years at the mileages we do, worst case, we’ll buy an ice just before the cut off and store it in the garage till it’s needed, at our age we might not be driving in 10 years anyway.
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That's just about my thinking except that I don't know anyone with an EV. Nobody local has one, not even a hybrid and of the 200 or so customers I have visited over the last 11 years, none have owned anything but full fat oil burners. My current car is 14 years old and drives like new. I'll buy a newer diesel version in three or four years and that will see me out. Wife's car is 16 years old and equally in great condition. She doesn't fancy swapping to an EV either.
 
Clive K said:
That's just about my thinking except that I don't know anyone with an EV. Nobody local has one, not even a hybrid and of the 200 or so customers I have visited over the last 11 years, none have owned anything but full fat oil burners. My current car is 14 years old and drives like new. I'll buy a newer diesel version in three or four years and that will see me out. Wife's car is 16 years old and equally in great condition. She doesn't fancy swapping to an EV either.
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You are in France though, where distances are larger, people are quite conservative, diesel is cheaper and the vehicle testing *appears* less demanding on older vehicles. FWIW in Cussy (pop about 400) there's a Renault Twingo in the village and the charging station at Autun intermarche is usually in use.
 
ancient_mariner said:
You are in France though, where distances are larger, people are quite conservative, diesel is cheaper and the vehicle testing *appears* less demanding on older vehicles. FWIW in Cussy (pop about 400) there's a Renault Twingo in the village and the charging station at Autun intermarche is usually in use.
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It is interesting that many villages now have charging points that are rarely used. In a local town on market days residents or visitors have taken to using the charging bays to park their diesel vehicles as often these are the only two free spaces in the town centre. When we shop at the bigger town every week I rarely see any EVs using the 6 supermarket charging points and most of those that do have Belgian or Dutch plates.

People here hang onto their cars far longer than the average in the UK. And the EU introduced Controle Technique tests have been watered down in France and probably elsewhere. The regulations haven't changed, but the interpretation must have.

I'm not sure that diesel is significantly cheaper here though. It is in Spain, but the difference is less each time we visit.
 
VW Share Price is plummeting

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Tesla - The future :)

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BYD - The biggest Chinese EV Company :)

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gman said:
I spy an opportunity... :naughty:
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humm dunno to be honest i think maybe see if they get through the restructure and wage negotiations with unions
 
Mr Bump said:
humm dunno to be honest i think maybe see if they get through the restructure and wage negotiations with unions
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For me it's the Porsche element that provides some reassurance, but then it's been as low as almost €30 during the big financial crash, but that was exceptional times. Perhaps if it falls to €60 I may take a closer look.

Tesla had a fair decline after late 2021 and a struggled recovery, but it's getting there. There's potential now for new highs in the near future. Interesting times ahead.
 
Mr Bump said:
VW Share Price is plummeting

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130 to 84 in 8 monthsis hardly plumetting By stock exchange standards. And don't forget that VW have been on their arris before. Then somebody designed a car called the Golf and it did rather well. The German, French and Italian governments aided by the Spanish and others will strongarm the EU into making the European market harder for American and Chinese companies to operate in.
 
Clive K said:
130 to 84 in 8 monthsis hardly plumetting By stock exchange standards. And don't forget that VW have been on their arris before. Then somebody designed a car called the Golf and it did rather well. The German, French and Italian governments aided by the Spanish and others will strongarm the EU into making the European market harder for American and Chinese companies to operate in.
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nope look at the 5 year pattern
down is the only way for VW
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Mr Bump said:
nope look at the 5 year pattern
down is the only way for VW
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You really are desperate to prove a point. If Teslar survive in business for half the time that VW have then they will have done well. But the way that Musk is operating might see the company not lasting out this decade.
 
Clive K said:
You really are desperate to prove a point. If Teslar survive in business for half the time that VW have then they will have done well. But the way that Musk is operating might see the company not lasting out this decade.
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I think it is more you that seems to be defending a position that simply doesn't exist VW and many other legacy car makers are in the poop
the only car makers that are making money are the above EV companies = fact
 
Mr Bump said:
I think it is more you that seems to be defending a position that simply doesn't exist VW and many other legacy car makers are in the poop
the only car makers that are making money are the above EV companies = fact
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What you don't seem to realise is that Chinese and American companies are benefitting from massive state subsidies whilst European manufacturers are having to play by EU fiscal policies that prevent governments from propping up their businesses. Teslar has faced a significant drop in its market share of EVs through Chinese competition and with the new regime in the States and Musk's closeness to Trump expect the EU to level up the playing field pretty soon.

The head of Toyota still believes that EV market share will not go much above 30%. That hasn't quite been reached yet and by the time that it does the Europeans and Asian companies will have had time to develop their own vehicles that won't attract tarrifs in their domsstic markets. The game has only just begun.
 
gman said:

Rivian, Volkswagen Group launch $5.8 billion joint venture​


Interesting merger. Looks like VW are certainly not ignoring the EV future.
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yeah its an odd one that, the Electric Viking did a video of this venture last week
seems to think VW are spreading there money about for no real reason.

it could be they need the rivian technology to help out there EV platform
 
I'm sure I read that a high proportion of EV sales are fleet/company sales and whilst that may also be true of ICE cars EV could be an issue for private buyers as depreciation seem pretty epic, there are question marks over longevity and some dealers wont touch an EV at trade in or if they will they'll offer peanuts for it. I've watched some bloggers losing a lot on EV's.

Anyway. Just watched a couple of vids recently about Ford in the US where dealers are apparently way overstocked and can't shift some models. Layoffs may be a possibility.
 
Clive K said:
You really are desperate to prove a point. If Teslar survive in business for half the time that VW have then they will have done well. But the way that Musk is operating might see the company not lasting out this decade.
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Loathe or love Musk AFAIK Tesla sales and revenues aren't exactly in horror territory yet and that has to be good in this market and if the Chinese do face tariffs maybe Tesla could benefit. Tesla stocks seem to be on the up possibly for that reason. Long term I'm convinced that EV isn't the answer and baring governments forcing us into them they are perhaps only a stepping stone to something else. For one thing I can't see us having the required grid capacity any time soon.
 
woof woof said:
Loathe or love Musk AFAIK Tesla sales and revenues aren't exactly in horror territory yet and that has to be good in this market and if the Chinese do face tariffs maybe Tesla could benefit. Tesla stocks seem to be on the up possibly for that reason. Long term I'm convinced that EV isn't the answer and baring governments forcing us into them they are perhaps only a stepping stone to something else. For one thing I can't see us having the required grid capacity any time soon.
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Personally I think that Musk is a dangerous man. More so with Trump as President.

Regards EVs; I think that they will be like the canal network in that a lot of time, effort and money went into something that in many cases was redundant before it was completed. Fortunes were made on the railways on the backs of losses on the canal engineering. I predict the same will happen with EVs.
 
Clive K said:
Personally I think that Musk is a dangerous man. More so with Trump as President.

Regards EVs; I think that they will be like the canal network in that a lot of time, effort and money went into something that in many cases was redundant before it was completed. Fortunes were made on the railways on the backs of losses on the canal engineering. I predict the same will happen with EVs.
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I'm here to balance you. I think Musk has done much to counter the censorship, manipulation, propaganda, election interference and downright dishonesty we've seen in recent times in the USA. Community Notes is one good example and has helped to expose lies and misinformation for what they are, promptly. Another good thing is having easily to find original source material to view when faced with the edited misrepresentation from the government and MSM we've seen so often and we have certainly seen a lot of it in the US. For example, Covid, Hunter Biden, Steele, "Fine people" et al. Without existing and easy to access source material the control of information, the spreading of misinformation and the silencing of opposing voices for political reasons is too easy. Until Musk source material and opposing views were reguarly, routinely and at times systematically suppressed at the request of government and their agencies and that just can not be right and is in fact clearly anti democratic.

The way the outgoing regime had infiltrated and manipulated the big social media platforms including Twitter with politicised former law enforcement personnel and the direct involvement of serving politicised law enforcement and other government agencies to silence opposition and manipulate the population has been more than deeply worrying, it's been Orwellian. This has now begun to be addressed on X and may well now be addressed on other platforms too. Good luck to Musk and with the help he may well get from the new regime I hope they make Orwell fiction again instead of the organised and systematic interference and control for political ends we've seen in recent years.

For some Trump or the Dems were the least worst option but how anyone can go further than seeing the Dems as a least worst option and actually support what they've done on principle is beyond me. Just the number of missing unaccompanied immigrant children due to Dem policies should in itself be issue enough to condemn them to opposition for a long time. The new regime could just limit such future crimes against humanity and save the USA from the economic and social disaster they seemed to be heading towards and if Trump can repeat his good works for peace in the world we may see a lessoning of war, death and destruction.

Oh, and anyone liking your post for the Musk bit needs to give their head a shake. I agree with you on EV's. I think they're a damaging distracting tech with limited niche use.
 
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Clive K said:
Regards EVs; I think that they will be like the canal network in that a lot of time, effort and money went into something that in many cases was redundant before it was completed. Fortunes were made on the railways on the backs of losses on the canal engineering. I predict the same will happen with EVs.
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Can you actually explain how you can use the word "predict" given overwhelming evidence that you are wrong?

In 2024 to date, there has been 299,733 new fully electric cars sold, which is 18.1% market share of all new cars registered this year.

In 2023, the last full year, there were 314,684 electric cars sold, as compared to 267,203 in 2022; a growth of 18%. The proportion of new cars that are electric has grown from 6.6% in 2020, to 18.1% in 2024.

In the last few years the electric car proportion of new car sales has stayed stable, but this is expected to change as the impact of the ZEV mandate, and growing consumer demand comes into affect. In parallel the number of new diesel cars sold has fallen significantly.

even in France where i believe you reside EV sales are souring.

France’s Electric Vehicle Registrations Surge in May 2024 | European Alternative Fuels Observatory

alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu
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From about 1750 to 1810 canal use grew at massive rates.

By 1850 they were pretty much dead. Rail was King.

I agree with Clive.
 
simon ess said:
From about 1750 to 1810 canal use grew at massive rates.

By 1850 they were pretty much dead. Rail was King.

I agree with Clive.
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Quite. We could be at the point of 85% of new car sales being EVs and the numbers suddenly falling off a cliff because of a much better alternative coming along.
 
So, what is that alternative…?

It needs to be visible on the horizon now.
 
Pound Coin said:
So, what is that alternative…?

It needs to be visible on the horizon now.
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what is visible on the horizon is massive leaps in EV battery technology and massive price cuts in the costs

Solid state batteries coming soon will make 400 mile small EVs standard and reasonably priced in 5 years time
also they will be guaranteed for huge mileages as standard

www.carwow.co.uk

What is a solid state battery for EVs?

Solid state batteries are set to be a real game changer, making electric cars cheaper, safer, quicker to charge, longer lasting and with much more range. Our advice guide explains how, why and when.
www.carwow.co.uk www.carwow.co.uk
 
Mr Bump said:
what is visible on the horizon is massive leaps in EV battery technology and massive price cuts in the costs

Solid state batteries coming soon will make 400 mile small EVs standard and reasonably priced in 5 years time
also they will be guaranteed for huge mileages as standard

www.carwow.co.uk

What is a solid state battery for EVs?

Solid state batteries are set to be a real game changer, making electric cars cheaper, safer, quicker to charge, longer lasting and with much more range. Our advice guide explains how, why and when.
www.carwow.co.uk www.carwow.co.uk
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People keep saying this but you can't buy that tech today and claims have come and gone. That article could be right and we may see it in 2029 but if so will there be early adopter issues? Who can tell if or when the current issues and worries will be truly addressed. Of course if this leap forward tech does come what will todays EV's be worth on the used market? No one is going to want to touch the old tech and they'll depreciate through the floor. Plus there may well still be grid capacity issues if EV's really take off.

If some new tech does appear I hope they can ease the gripes over range, charging time, longevity and end of life. So much green these days seems to be just an absolute con and I really do hope for real change. But I doubt it.

Another thing in all this. I watched a piece about EV crash damage and how some are being written off with what you'd think would be minimal damage. Tesla were criticised for this but other manufacturers use the same build ethos which can lead to what you'd think of as minor damage costing thousands as whole sections of the car need to be replaced. I think how EV's are built needs to be looked at and there needs to be regulations requiring manufacturers to build products which can be repaired reasonably economically otherwise if EV's are written off unnecessarily and need to be replaced it's just another nail in the environmental argument coffin.
 
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woof woof said:
People keep saying this but you can't buy that tech today and claims have come and gone. That article could be right and we may see it in 2029 but if so will there be early adopter issues? Who can tell if or when the current issues and worries will be truly addressed. Of course if this leap forward tech does come what will todays EV's be worth on the used market? No one is going to want to touch the old tech and they'll depreciate through the floor. Plus there may well still be grid capacity issues if EV's really take off.

If some new tech does appear I hope they can ease the gripes over range, charging time, longevity and end of life. So much green these days seems to be just an absolute con and I really do hope for real change. But I doubt it.
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There’s no alternative to the green.
 
woof woof said:
People keep saying this but you can't buy that tech today and claims have come and gone. That article could be right and we may see it in 2029 but if so will there be early adopter issues? Who can tell if or when the current issues and worries will be truly addressed. Of course if this leap forward tech does come what will todays EV's be worth on the used market? No one is going to want to touch the old tech and they'll depreciate through the floor. Plus there may well still be grid capacity issues if EV's really take off.

If some new tech does appear I hope they can ease the gripes over range, charging time, longevity and end of life. So much green these days seems to be just an absolute con and I really do hope for real change. But I doubt it.
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how long did ICE engines take to go from utter s***e to good?
And you are complaining about EV solid state taking 5 years?

in 5 years time it will be a no brainer for EV, its realy about which pony you want to back?

Legacy not a chance
new energy yes please
 
Mr Bump said:
how long did ICE engines take to go from utter s***e to good?
And you are complaining about EV solid state taking 5 years?

in 5 years time it will be a no brainer for EV, its realy about which pony you want to back?

Legacy not a chance
new energy yes please
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Me? Complaining? I thought I'd been clear. I'll try again. I want the problems to be solved but so far they haven't been and if the car issues are solved that could have implications for depreciation of current EV's and grid capacity as grid capacity simply isn't there if everyone goes out and buys a wonderful issue free EV.

I hope you're right but to date every promised revolution has fizzled out and if it does happen there are going to be a lot of very upset people with current tech EV's that no one is going to want. That could I suppose be eased with government subsidies but when we can't afford winter fuel payments for pensioners I'd be pretty miffed to see EV owners being subsidised to replace their cars.

I'm not anti EV, I just want the problems solving and at the moment there are a lot of problems. I think you are blind to them. A lot of people just can't afford to be,
 
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