How long before house prices increase by 20%

FlyTVR

FlyTVR

Suspended / Banned
Messages
4,234
Edit My Images
No
I know, it is a 'how long is a piece of string', but, how long do you think it will take for house prices to increase by 20% (if they increase at all). 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc?
 
If they're in London then by next year. Prices are rocketing there but not elsewhere. I think some places have seen 8-10% rises already.

Rest of the country probably 3 to 5 years.

There is talk of limiting borrowing to 3 times income but I don't think that will make as much difference as people hope. There will always be the well off that can fill their boots.
 
FlyTVR said:
I know, it is a 'how long is a piece of string', but, how long do you think it will take for house prices to increase by 20% (if they increase at all). 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, etc?
Click to expand...

Check the Home Counties too, London tends to drive the price sup in the suburbs. There are pockets where prices remain stable in respect to London but generally the more expensive areas follow suit.
 
I've read a few articles that say they will be back to 2007 level by 2017 but to be at the true level taking inflation into account its more like 2024. However this was a few years back and locally prices are already at 2007 levels, increasing 6% this year alone, but will it last? I'm still convinced there is still a bigger crash to come. Houses are still massively over priced. There are a very large amount of families with 2 earners that when interest rate increase will be in a lot of trouble.
 
Last edited:
rjbell said:
I've read a few articles that say they will be back to 2007 level by 2017 but to be at the true level taking inflation into account its more like 2024. However this was a few years back and locally prices are already at 2007 levels, increasing 6% this year alone, but will it last? I'm still convinced there is still a bigger crash to come. Houses are still massively over priced. There are a very large amount of families with 2 earners that when interest rate increase will be in a lot of trouble.
Click to expand...

Interest rates aren't going to return to the old highs. Carney has made it clear that interest rates are a blunt tool and they will use other methods to control economy and house price increases.

Immigration, ageing population and lack of house building will keep prices rising for a while. This is still a small island.
 
I think the horse has well and truly bolted for mortgages to be no more than 3 times your salary. Maybe if they had stuck to that in 80's & 90's we wouldn't be in the crisis we are at the moment.
 
srichards said:
Interest rates aren't going to return to the old highs. Carney has made it clear that interest rates are a blunt tool and they will use other methods to control economy and house price increases.

Immigration, ageing population and lack of house building will keep prices rising for a while. This is still a small island.
Click to expand...

Yes he's mentioned the rates will not change for a few years, but if the rates the government borrow increase, will interest rates go up also? They may not have a choice.
 
Last edited:
rjbell said:
Yes he's mentioned the rates will not change for a few years, but if the rates the government borrow increase, will interest rates go up also? They may not have a choice.
Click to expand...

I don't think govt borrowing rate is linked in that way. If they have to borrow more then if anything rates would have to reduce as it would indicate economy had tanked again.
 
There will always be hotspots and that links to local conditions.

London has always been an area where national trends mean nothing.

I sold my house in London 12 years ago and was able to nuy a bigger house in Somerset and a 2 bed flst in a then "cheap" part of London. Both properties are now worth the same.

The drying up of mortgages over the past 5 years pushed people into private sector rentals which limited saving when the lenders pushed up deposits to sometimes 40%.

Now that is easing the doorway opens to more homebuyers entering the market.

So short term I think that as the borrowing restraints come off then we might see some upward push on prices but I have doubts the BoE will let it baloon out of control.

Housebuilding is still not picking up and when it does there is a risk thst cash rich investors/landlords will push to snap up unrestricted developments. A few years back a friend worked on a large London apartment development and had a cash sale from 1 person - a woman bought 24 apartments to rent out and that was a cash sale.

So too many dynamics in a polarised mafket.

I don't see an out of control housing market but there is nothing in England to stop gazumping. Time for the sealed bid process used in Scotlznd perhaps?

I truly hope that those struggling to get on the ladder get a better deal but supply and demnd equagions rule.

S
 
Last edited:
House prices in my area are up 5% this year and over 12% this quarter. That doesn't mean much though until you come to put yours on the market and your buyer agrees with your price !!

Back to the OP, I don't think the issue is the house prices but the ability for buyers to secure lending with much tougher criteria and the fact that mortgage rates are now moving further apart from the BoE rate.
 
Buck said:
Back to the OP, I don't think the issue is the house prices but the ability for buyers to secure lending with much tougher criteria and the fact that mortgage rates are now moving further apart from the BoE rate.
Click to expand...

With the base rate this low, we aren't going to see mortgage rates close to the base rate like we did when it was up at 7% (or higher, for those with long memories). Lenders need to maintain deposit rates

I want the BoE to introduce a negative base rate. I'm on a tracker, so if it drops to -0.25%, my lender will be paying me interest on the money I have borrowed :lol:
 
onomatopoeia said:
I want the BoE to introduce a negative base rate. I'm on a tracker, so if it drops to -0.25%, my lender will be paying me interest on the money I have borrowed :lol:
Click to expand...

Good luck with that :lol:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top