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Holidaying in Greece - any thoughts about how the crisis will change things ?
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dejongj
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Maybe I'm too much of a Northern European. However, I found a lot of the comments from the no camp rather insulting. They were coming up with arguments like that they are no slaves, that this is a human rights issue and that they are human beings. WTF They borrowed too much, then borrowed some more to pay back. Yet in all those years and now they aren't making much of an effort to actually pay it back. What an unbelievable display of lack of personal responsibility and total disregard to other people's hard work. I guess some do believe in money trees and fairies.
Even when cut loose at some stage; they should be made to pay back. Definitely not a destination I will support with my money.
Even when cut loose at some stage; they should be made to pay back. Definitely not a destination I will support with my money.
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boyfalldown
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Thats fairly harsh. I agree that they should pay it back, but it a measured and realistic way. Not by lending them more money at punitive rates of interest that at the same time imposes measures that mean the economy is forced into a deep and long running recession. That helps nobody and leads to the situation we're in. At the moment bankruptcy seems the preferable option to Greece. They should have gone that way years ago.
I think a far more pragmatic solution is needed. One which allows Greece to recover and pay its debts.
(of course it never should have been allowed into the Euro in the first place. A proper due diligence would have shown this. But thats bygones)
dejongj
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@boyfalldown you are right they should never have been allowed to enter, then again they have to take responsibility themselves and not entered. Likewise when others tried to help them, they should have been sensible and make changes so they can pay it back. How it comes across is that they place a big two fingers in the air to everyone who helps them out of a hole in the past without taking any responsibility for making arrangements that they can pay back their debt.
Don't get me wrong, I've got little sympathy for those that may not get their money back, that is the way it works, that is why there is a risk to lending money. And that is why the risk premium, interest, goes up when the risk is high.
The risk is as high as classification can go that when you lend money to Greece you won't get it back. That is Greece alone who have done that. But no, they are trying to have their cake and eat it. Can't blame them for trying, but it is a bit odd to cry wolf when others have enough. This is not something that happened overnight.
Now, perhaps unexpectedly, I don't think a no vote was bad for Greece nor for the rest of Europe. Except for the uncertainty it creates around other euro zone countries who did make the tough choices. Will there be an uprising there as well? I don't know. I hope not.
Don't get me wrong, I've got little sympathy for those that may not get their money back, that is the way it works, that is why there is a risk to lending money. And that is why the risk premium, interest, goes up when the risk is high.
The risk is as high as classification can go that when you lend money to Greece you won't get it back. That is Greece alone who have done that. But no, they are trying to have their cake and eat it. Can't blame them for trying, but it is a bit odd to cry wolf when others have enough. This is not something that happened overnight.
Now, perhaps unexpectedly, I don't think a no vote was bad for Greece nor for the rest of Europe. Except for the uncertainty it creates around other euro zone countries who did make the tough choices. Will there be an uprising there as well? I don't know. I hope not.
the black fox
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extremely harsh condemning a whole country on the actions of its leaders ,i have visited greece many many times back in the days of the drachma ,allowing the euro to become there currency killed the place and sent prices spiralling out of control .luckily we nevi went in to it ..however the greek people are genuinely among the nicest and most generous people in the world .i rarely recall having to pay for a drink when there ,if you take the time to get to know them they will treat you like a family member and you have a friend for life not just a holiday .
the difference runs to something like this in the u.k a coach load of kids passes you walking down a lane and you will undoubtably get cat calls ,rude noises and a few hand gestures etc .in greece in the same scenario the kids will smile and give you a friendly wave
dejongj
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Hmm don't get me wrong, I've always enjoyed the holidays in Greece and nowhere have I said the people aren't nice.
And I don't agree with your analysis of the UK, it totally depends where you are, very similar in any other country (I've lived in 17 so far).
My point is that this is not just the leaders at all, this is the wishes of the people. These were the people being interviewed, these are the people who don't want measures to be put in place. These are the people who don't realise they don't have the funding to support their lifestyle.
No to austerity measures is all good and well, however who is going to pay back the debts? Where is the money going to come from? Something has to change. Sorry but borrowing money, not paying it back, not demonstrating you are making efforts to pay it back and then calling it a human rights issue or slavery by Northern Europe is just ridiculous.
Fair enough perhaps the prudent Calvinistic northern Germanic side is coming out of me, I acknowledge that, I was just brought up to take responsibility for my own actions.
So yeah, they voted in their governments, and they voted clearly what they want in the referendum. Democracy is great, but choice comes with consequences.
ianp5a
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The ones I spoke to are fed up that they are bearing the cost of the mistakes of government and big international business. A clear "us an them" divide. As they got dumped on by the previous government. Maybe they feel it's so bad they have nothing to lose?
They are bound to want protect their pensions and livelihoods as much as they can. How far they go is a harder question to answer. Maybe they have gone too far? And this clearly should have been sorted years ago. But it didn't. And here they are.
The lenders actually deserve this slap, for not realising what they were causing. As they stand to lose out. In fact they already are as the Euro has dropped some. It is all useful learning though. Growing pains for the Euro. Lets hope this all blows over with as little collateral damage to the people as possible.
They are bound to want protect their pensions and livelihoods as much as they can. How far they go is a harder question to answer. Maybe they have gone too far? And this clearly should have been sorted years ago. But it didn't. And here they are.
The lenders actually deserve this slap, for not realising what they were causing. As they stand to lose out. In fact they already are as the Euro has dropped some. It is all useful learning though. Growing pains for the Euro. Lets hope this all blows over with as little collateral damage to the people as possible.
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boyfalldown
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No I don't see a no vote as a bad thing either. I do wonder if the primary goal of the bailout has been to help Greece. It seems like many of the terms of it have been needed, bug equally many of the terms have seemed punitive. I think if you really intended to help, some of the edges of that would have been rounded a little. Punitive is OK, but after your country has spent most of the last 7 years in deep recession, with massively high unemployment then you have to ask if the current method is working? I don't think it is. and something new, that works for all involved (thats not the same as saying let them off BTW) is needed.
BTW - I do agree with you most of the way
dejongj
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One of the analysis I read is that the Greeks only have a couple of billion in foreign currency. They won't even have enough to create their own currency and operate internationally.
They really have nothing too loose, I think the open borders are even more concerning looking right now.
They really have nothing too loose, I think the open borders are even more concerning looking right now.
Keith W
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Well the recommendation is if you are visiting Greece in the near future take cash only and enough cash to last you the entirety of your trip and for any emergency's that may crop up
Just so happens an old Greek couple sat next to me today they were with their daughter who was married to a Scottish man
Seems they had been unable to get any of their money from the bank for the last 3 weeks!! so they had boarded up their home and the daughter is putting them up for the foreseeable future
Just so happens an old Greek couple sat next to me today they were with their daughter who was married to a Scottish man
Seems they had been unable to get any of their money from the bank for the last 3 weeks!! so they had boarded up their home and the daughter is putting them up for the foreseeable future
dejongj
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I can see that happen across the board. Pardon the pun.
And perhaps the Turkish will take over the property once again
it's a right mess but they have to take responsibility.
For example, pensionable age at 61 is lovely. When you can afford it. What is it here? What is it in Germany who has to pay for that? It is the unrealistic expectations of money for nothing that cause an issue with others who are paying for that lifestyle.
And perhaps the Turkish will take over the property once again
it's a right mess but they have to take responsibility. For example, pensionable age at 61 is lovely. When you can afford it. What is it here? What is it in Germany who has to pay for that? It is the unrealistic expectations of money for nothing that cause an issue with others who are paying for that lifestyle.
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This is interesting. I've noticed a couple of occasions now where we agree on the theoretical issues but disagree on the actuality of human nature.
It has been demonstrated that if you offer people cheap loans for a better lifestyle now, they tend to take it regardless of outcomes down the road.
I don't know what the motives were for allowing Greece into the Euro and I don't know what the motives were for the level of loans and the terms and conditions of those loans imposed at the time.
They must be open to question though.
dejongj
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I agree, although I'm not sure it is worth questioning them. They shouldn't have joined, it has become clear why not, and when you loan people who shouldn't be lend anything then the risk is that you don't get your money back. As such I think it will be a lesson for all.
Notwithstanding that, Greece should learn to live within their means. I ask again, what is the age you can draw a pension in the UK, Germany, Holland to name a few. Heck I would love it to be 55, but who is going to pay for that?
The Greek
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[QUOTE="dejongj, post: 6937307, member: 40477"
And perhaps the Turkish will take over the property once again it's a right mess but they have to take responsibility.
.[/QUOTE]
As a Greek Cypriot who lost his home, witness family and friends butchered to death in the 1974 invasion and illegal occupation of Cyprus.
I find your comment very offensive and distasteful.
And perhaps the Turkish will take over the property once again
it's a right mess but they have to take responsibility..[/QUOTE]
As a Greek Cypriot who lost his home, witness family and friends butchered to death in the 1974 invasion and illegal occupation of Cyprus.
I find your comment very offensive and distasteful.
dejongj
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My apologies, it was not intended to be offensive. It was made purely in the context of Greeks leaving and boarding up their property.
Ps. I say the same about the Germans in my backyard. For me if you can't talk about the past the future isn't worth it.
Ps. I say the same about the Germans in my backyard. For me if you can't talk about the past the future isn't worth it.
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I will never be persuaded of that, ever.
dejongj
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Do you think you'll ever get the true answer? Do you think anyone actually knows the answer?
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I know for certain answers will not be found if the questions are not asked.
Questioning may or may not produce answers, but at least the principles of accountability and scrutiny are shown to be upheld.
I suspect many Greeks voted no as a protest against the impositions of democratically unaccountable Eurocrats.
Questioning may or may not produce answers, but at least the principles of accountability and scrutiny are shown to be upheld.
I suspect many Greeks voted no as a protest against the impositions of democratically unaccountable Eurocrats.
dejongj
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To be honest when I hear them calling themselves slaves, and Europe finance ministers terrorists and all sorts, I don't think there is any kind of deep thinking going on. It sounds like the same kind of lot protesting here in the UK following a perfectly fine election.
My grandmother used to say; beggars can't be choosers. It works in this scenario; if they were repaying their debt and put measures in place than they can be in control over their own destiny. At the moment they can't even start their own currency. It's not good at all, but in my opinion they've got to show willingness. Not through words but through actions.
the black fox
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No having been to Greece more times than I can remember I can catergorically state that the Greek people have long long memories and they quite simply hate the Germans ,and this is more a act of defiance at being dictated to by Germany than anything else . In the entrance to kos castle there used to be ( might still be) a ww2 German army helmet turned upside down ,all Greeks that pass it spit in it ,I have witnessed that with my own eyes it's not a third party fairy tale
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In most cases though, we expect to recover the bailout funds when the treasury sells it's stake.
The Greek debt won't be written off to any large degree - I expect there will be a restructuring that can be sold as a win to the Greek voters and a pragmatic solution to German voters
The Greek
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Sure we have to talk about the pass but we must also learn from it. Would you make the same statement (in jest) replacing Greek and Turkish for German and Jews? Probably Not!
dejongj
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The context in which I made the remark was Greeks leaving out of free will and boarding up. Let's not make more out of it hey.
I would not deny the holocaust if that is what you are hinting at. However our estate was taken over by the Germans and my father was made to witness many an execution. I have no issues with the Germans and jest all the time with them. My friends still haven't brought back my grandmothers bicycle. One tried, but it was a male bike so the wrong one.
Being stuck in the past isn't good for anyone. Not paying back ones debts and asking for more money is just taking the p***.
The Greek
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No there was nothing you said to suggest the Greeks leaving on their free will and you clearly know the history between the Greeks and the Turkish. So why bring Turkey into this debate ?
Until then, you have made some very good points on which I agree with you on most. Yes the Greeks have no one but themselves to blame, Yes the Greeks should one way or another pay back there debts and Yes they should have never been allowed to enter the the euro zone in the bigging, that's Germanys fault not Greece. BUT! When someone is desperate for money for whatever the reason they got themselves in that mess in the first place, they end up borrowing from loan sharks sinking deeper in the s@#t, eventually the only way out is bankruptcy and starting all over again.
Personally, I think a deal will be done, with lower interest rates and more time.
dejongj
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A deal will always be done, but unless spending gets cut it won't resolve anything.
Th complication here is that there are a few more countries that are watching this unfold and want to have a better deal. Want to have money for nothing.
I am fully supportive of everyone being entitled to a better lifestyle. However the way to get there is not through taking it from those that have been prudent and worked hard for it, it is by being prudent and working hard yourself.
I'm glad the majority in the UK saw that and voted such that the party willing to make such tough choices has 20% more of the votes than the next party. Yet even here there have been protest against tightening our belts.
I'm not sure about France, but people in Northern Europe aren't happy at the irresponsible behaviour.
Th complication here is that there are a few more countries that are watching this unfold and want to have a better deal. Want to have money for nothing.
I am fully supportive of everyone being entitled to a better lifestyle. However the way to get there is not through taking it from those that have been prudent and worked hard for it, it is by being prudent and working hard yourself.
I'm glad the majority in the UK saw that and voted such that the party willing to make such tough choices has 20% more of the votes than the next party. Yet even here there have been protest against tightening our belts.
I'm not sure about France, but people in Northern Europe aren't happy at the irresponsible behaviour.
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Greece has no one to blame but itself years of irresponsibility has lead to this its shouldnt have been allowed to go on this long. They should exit the euro and just be seen as the country that stole a lot of money and will get away with it probably.
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So the Greek people should accept NO responsibility for the situation?
There was me thinking that Greece was a functioning mature democracy with educated informed voters. I stand corrected.
The Greek
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So the Greek people should accept NO responsibility for the situation?
.
Did you bother reading the bit where I said the Greeks have no one else to blame but themselves?
D
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The other party with a role in this (the banks acting as creditors to Greece) have been mostly made whole. I see no mention of any punitive measures against them. And the recent bailout was not a greek bail out, it was a bank bailout.
One other point, austerity has not been a good thing for Britain (or indeed any country). See the following chart that shows the negative influence austerity has on economies.
One other point, austerity has not been a good thing for Britain (or indeed any country). See the following chart that shows the negative influence austerity has on economies.
D
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Well obviously opinions differ on that
But not among economists!
EDIT, and isn't that chart clear on the effects?
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dejongj
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No not really. It is only one aspect of a complex puzzle. There are two simple ways of reducing a deficit, reduce your expenditure or increase the intake.
I do not subscribe to increasing the intake, that doesn't fit with my political views and I think government should shrink. Further more it doesn't remove the fundamental issue.
This is exactly the problem with Greece. They just do not have enough income to provide the benefits they want to give away. They cannot afford it. It is in areas where there is no revenue generation. Now from what I understand they do have some opportunity to increase their tax revenues, but they will have to implement cost reduction measurements as well.
It is a cultural issue where here, there and everywhere there are people who expect something for nothing. That is not right in my opinion. Others, mostly those that do not contribute anyway think otherwise.
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You are against economic growth? Or are you just assuming that the only way to increase tax receipts is to increase the %?
There are numerous examples of governments spending themselves out of recession (and also examples when it didn't work) - to claim austerity is the only solution is plain wrong.
It is telling that you will never hear a consensus of economists making this claim (*), only politicians with an ideological drive for small government - regardless of whether there's a deficit or not. Austerity is not, for them, a solution to the problem of a deficit, but an ideology for all occasions - the deficit just makes it an easier sell to the voters. If anything, the deficit is - to them - the solution to the problem of weaning the public off an expectation of government services.
(*) Indeed, 20 of the economists who wrote that pre-2010-election letter praising Osborne's austerity, 9 had decided by summer of 2012 that we needed to dial it back and introduce more stimulus into the economy. If the Friedman acolytes are coming over all Keynesian, perhaps it's time for a rethink.
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Sorry, I got a bit confused by you saying the Greeks had no-one to blame but themselves, and then two sentences later blaming it all on the Germans and absolving Greece of any blame. More flip-flop than a Greek island...
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Sorry, I got a bit confused by you saying the Greeks had no-one to blame but themselves, and then two sentences later blaming it all on the Germans and absolving Greece of any blame. More flip-flop than a Greek island...
strictly speaking the germans are to blame - its a bit the banks being to blame for the subprime debt bubble - if they hadn't lent all that money to people who couldn't possibly pay it back in the first place we wouldn't have this mess now...
dejongj
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That is like saying MacDonalds must not sell their food to fatties. Just because someone is willing to lend money, especially at high rates, doesn't mean you have to take it.