Foreign Ownership of UK assets.

[dejongj]

I also like a sfogliatina for breakfast

Very nice. I have an Italian anytime a day

 

[dejongj]

Actually in my days before children, when,living in central London. I used to love my lazy Sundays. Went to Valerie in Knightsbridge following a little stroll from my flat for a nice brunch. Hmm those were the days.

 

[nilagin]

Again, you are confusing what supply and demand mean in economic terms. Just because there are, say 8 houses available for sale, doesn't tell you anything about demand. How many potential buyers were there? 1? 8? 64?

Only 8?
Currently on Rightmove, in my town (not exactly a large town) there is 91 houses, 11 flats/apartments and 25 bungalows.
Increase it to within 1 mile radius it grows to 356 houses, 56 flats/apartments and 61 bungalows.
Increase it to within 3 mile radius, we have 915 houses, 283 flats/apartments and 120 bungalows.
Just one small independent estate agent in my town has 87 residential properties on his books at the moment.

 

[dejongj]

So everyone wants to leave but they can't

 

[Alastair]

Took the children to a puppet theatre (yes, I know I'm loading the gun here) north of the river and were sat behind a family where one of the children was named Cornelius. I barely managed to stifle a snigger.

You did better than me, last summer in the park there was "one of those mums" calling out for Horatio, I was expecting a poodle.. but nope, a wee lad came running up.. I'm afraid my snigger did escape.. No, he wasn't wearing a sailor suit..

I'm guessing they'd come along the coast for the day to see how the other classes lived.. .. (the only names for a young boy that would fit the North Norfolk Chelsea-tractor driving set more aptly than Horatio would be Farrow or Ball)..

 

[Llamaman]

Only 8?
Currently on Rightmove, in my town (not exactly a large town) there is 91 houses, 11 flats/apartments and 25 bungalows.

You are clearly unfamiliar with the concept of an illustrative example. Were you raised by wolves, or are you just being intentionally obtuse?

Just one small independent estate agent in my town has 87 residential properties on his books at the moment.

And how many seeking to buy?

 

[nilagin]

You are clearly unfamiliar with the concept of an illustrative example. Were you raised by wolves, or are you just being intentionally obtuse?


And how many seeking to buy?

I think you'll find the figures I have quoted are representative of an illustrative example, rather than your somewhat unrealistic example.
No-one knows how many people are actually looking to buy.

 

[nilagin]

So everyone wants to leave but they can't

Quite the contrary, the small independent estate agent I mentioned has a regular turnover of properties sold and new properties coming onto the books. Being at the end of the Underground, on the Fenchurch line and close to the M25 people are more likely to want to move in. I know many people who have remained in the town and just upgraded to larger or smaller properties depending on their requirements.

 

[Llamaman]

I think you'll find the figures I have quoted are representative of an illustrative example, rather than your somewhat unrealistic example.

Since your imagination/numeracy skills lack the capacity to factor up from an illustrative scenario to a real-life scenario, let me rephrase for you;

Again, you are confusing what supply and demand mean in economic terms. Just because there are, say 80 houses available for sale, doesn't tell you anything about demand. How many potential buyers were there? 10? 80? 640?

Better now?

No-one knows how many people are actually looking to buy.

If you are right, you are admitting that you cannot possibly say that supply is sufficient to meet demand, because you don't know what the demand is?

But I suspect that estate agents will have a reasonable idea how many people are looking, as will mortgage providers (since its advisable in the current climate to have your finances in place before you begin looking) - although in both cases they will be an underestimate.

 

[Llamaman]

Quite the contrary, the small independent estate agent I mentioned has a regular turnover of properties sold and new properties coming onto the books.

So... there's a high amount of market churn, which explains the large number of properties on their books at any given time. It's not because of over-supply, as you originally claimed?

Well, that's that one settled.

 

[nilagin]

Since your imagination/numeracy skills lack the capacity to factor up from an illustrative scenario to a real-life scenario, let me rephrase for you;

Again, you are confusing what supply and demand mean in economic terms. Just because there are, say 80 houses available for sale, doesn't tell you anything about demand. How many potential buyers were there? 10? 80? 640?

Better now?


If you are right, you are admitting that you cannot possibly say that supply is sufficient to meet demand, because you don't know what the demand is?

But I suspect that estate agents will have a reasonable idea how many people are looking, as will mortgage providers (since its advisable in the current climate to have your finances in place before you begin looking) - although in both cases they will be an underestimate.

Nothing wrong with my imagination or numeracy skills thanks. What is the point in spouting pie in the sky figures to make a point. As I said before, there are a lot of people out there with money to invest and don't need to raise the finance. I don't know what the demand is and neither do you.
In Essex alone Rightmove has over 10,000 residential properties, subtract the few that will be from more than one Estate Agent, I'm willing to bet there will still be in excess of 9000. That's just one county.

 

[Llamaman]

Nothing wrong with my imagination or numeracy skills thanks. What is the point in spouting pie in the sky figures to make a point.

I was illustrating that supply tells you nothing about demand. Replacing the supply figure from 8 to 80 still tells you nothing about demand. The figures aren't important, per se, the point is important.

As I said before, there are a lot of people out there with money to invest and don't need to raise the finance.

Lots of people = lots of demand. We're actually in agreement, on that. The issue is that you seem to think the supply>demand, and that prices are rising due to some previously undocumented market force, not standard supply & demand.

AsI don't know what the demand is and neither do you.

I can confidently state that Demand>Supply. Why? Because prices are rising and housing is not a Veblen Good.

In Essex alone Rightmove has over 10,000 residential properties, subtract the few that will be from more than one Estate Agent, I'm willing to bet there will still be in excess of 9000. That's just one county.

Once again, just because there is supply doesn't mean that supply>demand (or that demand<supply). It's just one side of the equation.
It could be 9,000 houses with a demand of 5,000. Or 9,000 houses with a demand of 20,000. The former would result in house prices falling, the latter in them rising. Prices ARE rising, which indicates the demand>supply - i.e. your assertion that housing is not in shortage is demonstrably false from the data available.

Edit: had a < the wrong way round!

 

[JonathanRyan]

Nothing wrong with my imagination or numeracy skills thanks. What is the point in spouting pie in the sky figures to make a point. As I said before, there are a lot of people out there with money to invest and don't need to raise the finance. I don't know what the demand is and neither do you.
In Essex alone Rightmove has over 10,000 residential properties, subtract the few that will be from more than one Estate Agent, I'm willing to bet there will still be in excess of 9000. That's just one county.

Yeah, I think you'll find that a lot of stuff on Rightmove either isn't available or is available for a very long time.....

 

[nilagin]

Lots of people = lots of demand. We're actually in agreement, on that. The issue is that you seem to think the supply>demand, and that prices are rising due to some previously undocumented market force, not standard supply & demand.

But it's not undocumented, house prices on the whole have always risen, compared to when there has been a crash and they have fallen. When I bought a flat soon after the interest rates went to 15% and the value of my flat went down buy a third. 20 odd years later the same property is worth around 4 times the price I bought at. In certain cultures in this country it is the norm to invest in property whilst continuing to all live under one household as a large family unit before finally moving out. I still maintain the actual supply figures compared to demand aren't as low as you believe, it's just that those with readily available money get there first leaving those needing to raise the finance with lesser property maybe a bit rundown or not such an ideal location.
In Essex alone there is around 850 new build properties, which not including static caravans/holiday chalet types, range from a £45k one bedroom apartment to a £4.9m house. I'm sure there will be similar numbers of properties in other counties on top of existing houses for sale. Just down the road from me a bungalow was recently demolished and 3 houses built to replace it. Last year a local pub was demolished and 7 houses built on the site. There is plenty of development and new builds happening all the time to feed the demand.

 

[JonathanRyan]

But it's not undocumented, house prices on the whole have always risen, compared to when there has been a crash and they have fallen. When I bought a flat soon after the interest rates went to 15% and the value of my flat went down buy a third.

It's sad to note that there are still a lot of people who believe that an increase to the value of their property is always a good thing. Of course, it's always a good thing if you are either getting out of the market or looking to downsize. It might be a good thing if you're looking to relocate. But most of the time it's actually bad news.

 

[dejongj]

Its only good for banks, estate agents, lawyers, tax collectors. Just about anyone except for owner occupiers.

 

[nilagin]

It's sad to note that there are still a lot of people who believe that an increase to the value of their property is always a good thing. Of course, it's always a good thing if you are either getting out of the market or looking to downsize. It might be a good thing if you're looking to relocate. But most of the time it's actually bad news.

It's sad to note that there are still a lot of people who believe that an increase to the value of their property is always a good thing. Of course, it's always a good thing if you are either getting out of the market or looking to downsize. It might be a good thing if you're looking to relocate. But most of the time it's actually bad news.

You've named all the good points, for me it will likely be relocate a few miles away and buy bigger with more land for the same or possibly less money. I can't think of a single negative thing for it being worth more. My mate is in the process of buying a house to rent using the equity in his own house as collateral. His new mortgage, roughly same as he is paying now and the rent he will get on the house won't really need to be touched. Plus he has a nice investment for his daughters.

 

[dejongj]

Oh so selfish, as long as I'm all right jack.

Anyway can we talk about nice coffee again. I'm thirsty.

 

[Llamaman]

Oh so selfish, as long as I'm all right jack.

Anyway can we talk about nice coffee again. I'm thirsty.

I'm all about the tea today. About to have myself a nice cup of Lapsang Souchong.

 

[nilagin]

Oh so selfish, as long as I'm all right jack.

Anyway can we talk about nice coffee again. I'm thirsty.

Why is it selfish?
As for coffee or tea. Don't like them, , don't drink them. If you want to talk water milk or protien shakes though.

 

[dejongj]

If you have to ask it is not worth explaining it. Black is blue anyway isn't it.

 

[nilagin]

Nope still can't think of any reason why my home having gone up in value is a bad thing for me.

 

[JonathanRyan]

Nope still can't think of any reason why my home having gone up in value is a bad thing for me.

1. Most people tend to buy increasingly expensive houses (unless they are downsizing or getting out of the market somehow)
2. Market rises tend to affect properties by similar percentage amounts.

So.....imagine your house costs £100K and your "next" house costs £200k. The market goes up by 10%. That didn't make you 10k, it cost you 10k.

It does get more complicated when you look at leverage and resistance points.

 

[nilagin]

1. Most people tend to buy increasingly expensive houses (unless they are downsizing or getting out of the market somehow)
2. Market rises tend to affect properties by similar percentage amounts.

So.....imagine your house costs £100K and your "next" house costs £200k. The market goes up by 10%. That didn't make you 10k, it cost you 10k.

It does get more complicated when you look at leverage and resistance points.

Not necessarily so, for the price of a 2 bedroom flat in my home town, just by moving 5 miles "down the road" the same money will buy a 3 bedroom house.
Current price increases aren't that big anyway. When my parents bought their house in 1959 it cost £5k. 28yrs later it was worth around £120k, now it's worth in the region of £350k. In 25yrs my first home has only risen by around 4 times the amount I bought at.

 

[dejongj]

You'll be paying more in stamp duty, more in insurance costs etc..you are missing the big picture dude.

If in 25 years it has only risen four times the original value you almost certain have bought wrong to start off with. Or just live in a very undesirable area.

 

[dejongj]

Whilst my list was based on an inter alia, naturally I missed out on the big gainer. The estate agent fees will be bigger as well Heck even your LTV if you still have a mortgage could become worse so you pay more in banking charges as well. Likewise for the solicitors fees.

The list goes on and on. So who actually wins, is it really the owner occupier?

 

[nilagin]

Or just live in a very undesirable area.

Yeah that must be it, I wonder how they managed to sell those 3 new build houses down the road, within 3 months of being built, for £2.5m a piece.

 

[nilagin]

The estate agent fees will be bigger as well. Likewise for the solicitors fees.

Ever heard of set fees, regardless of property value.

 

[JonathanRyan]

Not necessarily so, for the price of a 2 bedroom flat in my home town, just by moving 5 miles "down the road" the same money will buy a 3 bedroom house.

See my point above about moving "out of the area". 5 miles can make a lot of difference to a house price (round here it would easily make 30% difference on a 3 bed).

In 25yrs my first home has only risen by around 4 times the amount I bought at.

Then in property terms, it was a pretty poor investment.

 

[Cobra]

Then in property terms, it was a pretty poor investment.

Wasn't there a point in the 1990's that house prices rose out of all proportion and people found themselves in negative equity, and then that was followed by a substantial crash?
Just wondering if he was caught up in that?

 

[JonathanRyan]

Wasn't there a point in the 1990's that house prices rose out of all proportion and people found themselves in negative equity, and then that was followed by a substantial crash?
Just wondering if he was caught up in that?

Sure. I didn't look at why it was a bad investment. Just that it was Hindsight is awesome.

 

[Cobra]

Hindsight is awesome.

Isn't it just

 

[dejongj]

Yeah that must be it, I wonder how they managed to sell those 3 new build houses down the road, within 3 months of being built, for £2.5m a piece.

So why does yours have such an issue then over the past 25 years. That doesn't make any sense.

 

[nilagin]

So why does yours have such an issue then over the past 25 years. That doesn't make any sense.

It doesn't, when I bought it, it cost £60k. Fell to £40k a year later on the crash.
Now they go for £240k+. Only property in London is likely to have gone up more. As I live about 25 miles outside London that is quite a respectable increase.

 

[nilagin]

Wasn't there a point in the 1990's that house prices rose out of all proportion and people found themselves in negative equity, and then that was followed by a substantial crash?
Just wondering if he was caught up in that?

I think you mean interest rates, not house prices.

 

[Llamaman]

And rising house prices can't put you in negative equity either!

 

[dejongj]

It doesn't, when I bought it, it cost £60k. Fell to £40k a year later on the crash.
Now they go for £240k+. Only property in London is likely to have gone up more. As I live about 25 miles outside London that is quite a respectable increase.

Well there you go then, not sure why you are arguing against everything as that is exactly the reason I and others suggest.

Don't know why it has to be so hard and argumentative.

 

[Cobra]

I think you mean interest rates, not house prices.

I had to google that an the charts are saying a dramatic rise in 1990 and then a slump 2 years later.
London was heaviest hit, but it seems to be across the country.
So I guess the answer is a bit of both.

 

[Mr Bump]

I am currently sharing a house in a place called Kilmacolm up near Erskine and the guy bought it 15 years ago for £350,000 and had it valued recently at....................£350,000 so some people just bought at the wrong time.

I bought my house about 20 years ago for £28,500 and its now worth about £150,000 and I will be moving up the road in a year or two to a nice quiet posh neighborhood and will probably pay £250,000 but in West Yorkshire that buys a lot

 

[nilagin]

Well there you go then, not sure why you are arguing against everything as that is exactly the reason I and others suggest.

Don't know why it has to be so hard and argumentative.

WTF? It's the same thing I've been saying all along, if I was in that same property I would be £180k better off (no idea what my current property is worth) how is that a bad thing and what has it to do with what you and others been saying all along?