Falling price of Oil?

Cobra

Cobra

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Well this is the bit I don't understand.

There have been doom and gloom news reports about the falling price of Oil,
I spend a lot of work time driving, and I see that fuel prices have risen on average 6p / litre as high as 12p/l in some area's.
( and I won't even mention the rip off that is M-way service stations )

It seems at the moment it's circa 2004 prices, $36 / barrel.
( According to OPEC )
Fuel at that time was 80p /L
today locally its £1.18 / L
 
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So oil has the same wholesale price, the cost of extracting, refining and selling it doesn't.
 
Ricardodaforce said:
So oil has the same wholesale price, the cost of extracting, refining and selling it doesn't.
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Fair point, generally, and all that, but with the falling cost of oil and huge price hike it should at least remain static,
But in 2008 the cost of oil went up by 50% ( and was triple the price then than now) and yet prices fell by upto 6p / L according to the AA web site.


gremlin16 said:
plus don't forget that due to the collapse of the pound, we are having to pay more. #brexit
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#theskyisfallingintheskyisfallingin#brexit
#deadcatslitteringthestreet#brexit#
 
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and most of the cost of a litre is tax
 
fuzzyedges said:
and most of the cost of a litre is tax
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yes I know that, its about 58p / L but
I wasn't aware we had had a budget and the tax increased by 6p?
 
Low oil price is bad for Tax revenue on sales and Oil company profits but it's good for just about everything other kind of business. It means lower transportation costs = cheaper goods and food which means more money in your pocket to buy other stuff.
 
The fuel they're selling now isn't from the oil that is selling now. There is a lag. I don't know how long that lag is though.
 
When did TP turn into Tw@tter? Did I miss the memo? :thinking:
 
srichards said:
There is a lag. I don't know how long that lag is though.
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Instant when there is a rise in the offing, about 3 months* when there is a reduction in the offing
* the latter may not be strictly true but the former certainly is.

Its seems for a couple of weeks BTW


oil.jpg
 
I was looking at some old fuel prices, and thinking how low they were. Until I realised it was priced per gallon, then you realise just how expensive fuel is today.
 
Steep said:
Low oil price is bad for Tax revenue on sales and Oil company profits but it's good for just about everything other kind of business. It means lower transportation costs = cheaper goods and food which means more money in your pocket to buy other stuff.
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No one is disputing that, the question is how can the falling cost of oil produce on average a 6p /L rise at the pumps

conspiracy theory 1 Shell, BP et all are price fixing again, because of falling profits.

26 Jul 2016 - Profits at BP plunged 44% to $720m (£550m) in the second quarter of 2016,
Shell's second-quarter earnings on a current cost of supplies (CCS) basis attributable to shareholders (excluding identified items) was $1 billion,
down from $3.8 billion in the same period last year, a 72 percent fall.

Hmmmm..
 
Cobra said:
yes I know that, its about 58p / L but
I wasn't aware we had had a budget and the tax increased by 6p?
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Plus 20% vat which means the rise in oil prices only relates to (at the moment) approximatly 30p p/l the rest is tax
So in theory a 10% rise in oil prices should = 3p p/l
Has there been a 20% rise in oil prices ?
 
srichards said:
The fuel they're selling now isn't from the oil that is selling now. There is a lag. I don't know how long that lag is though.
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However, there never seems to be a "lag" when the barrel price starts to go up;)
 
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Steep said:
Low oil price is bad for Tax revenue on sales and Oil company profits but it's good for just about everything other kind of business. It means lower transportation costs = cheaper goods and food which means more money in your pocket to buy other stuff.
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it destroyed the engineering industry around here, I and many others have lost our jobs as a direct result of low oil prices.Its also had a knock on effect on a lot of other local businesses who supplied raw materials and tooling etc.
 
It's simply the strength of the pound

On 29/10/2004 the exchange rate from sterling to USD was $1.83 to £1
On 29/10/2016 it's about $1.21 to £1

If we take your $36 per barrel as being the same dollar cost in 2004 and 2016 then we can see that in 2004 a barrel of oil priced in sterling equivalent would cost $36/$1.81=£19.67

In 2016 the same barrel of oil in sterling equivalent costs $36/$1.21=£29.75

So based only on exchange rate variance the barrel of oil priced in sterling is £10.08 more expensive in 2016 than in 2004

There's about 160l in a barrel of oil therefore the increase in cost per litre is £10.08/160=£0.06 or 6p per litre. That excludes increases in taxation and other costs over the period and is based only on the wholesale cost.
 
Putting it simply the general public are as usual being ripped off while a lacklustre government look the other way . Wait till trump wins the presidency and the arse will drop out of the dollar quicker than a whores knickers
 
the black fox said:
Putting it simply the general public are as usual being ripped off while a lacklustre government look the other way . Wait till trump wins the presidency and the arse will drop out of the dollar quicker than a whores knickers
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Sure the dollar will tank a little for a while. The euro is also on its last legs. Who is going to be worse off is purely a guess. One thing is for sure - Putin and the Saudis already agreed to raise the oil prices.
 
Brexit and all the anti EU racists are to blame.
 
fuzzyedges said:
Plus 20% vat which means the rise in oil prices only relates to (at the moment) approximatly 30p p/l the rest is tax
So in theory a 10% rise in oil prices should = 3p p/l
Has there been a 20% rise in oil prices ?
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As per my opening post, around the Midlands and East Anglia, where I spend most of my working day, its a Min of 6p /L rise

Mr Bump said:
Brexit and all the anti EU racists are to blame.
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I bet the people of Sunderland are seething right now!
 
chris954 said:
it destroyed the engineering industry around here, I and many others have lost our jobs as a direct result of low oil prices.Its also had a knock on effect on a lot of other local businesses who supplied raw materials and tooling etc.
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Hasnt done the design industry I worked in a lot of good, been out of work for 12 months as have many of my, now, ex colleagues.
Remember also and this is no cop out but the Oil companies are going to have to re-invest soon in new exploration when demand increases, as it will when reserves become depleted, that money has to come from somewhere. Major projects cost upwards of £100m or should we just expect no future exploration.
Capitalism at its very best.
Matt
 
The biggest effect in the last few months is the fall of the pound against the dollar, which is directly down to the result of the referendum. Everything priced in dollars, which in addition to oil, means everything coming from China, is more expensive as a consequence. We've seen a big increase in our supply costs, partly offset by an increase in sales to eurozone countries as the pound has fallen against the Euro as well making our finished product cheaper for them.
 
If more people have EVs then demand for oil will fall. Being self sufficient in fuel would be far more sensible than having to rely on squabbling nations for it.
 
Electric vehicles are going nowhere (pun) until they can come up with one that can carry the load of a transit van with the range of a transit van ~600 miles on a tank/charge.
 
MatBin said:
Hasnt done the design industry I worked in a lot of good, been out of work for 12 months as have many of my, now, ex colleagues.
Remember also and this is no cop out but the Oil companies are going to have to re-invest soon in new exploration when demand increases, as it will when reserves become depleted, that money has to come from somewhere. Major projects cost upwards of £100m or should we just expect no future exploration.
Capitalism at its very best.
Matt
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But future costs should be a fundamental element of their base pricing structure. I used to be a taxi driver and if after driving one car for 18 months I started adding 10% to the fares to save up for the next car I'd have very soon had no customers.
 
I can't say I have noticed any rise in the cost of petrol. I only use Shell V Power Nitro + and always from the same garage and it's been the same price (£1.22/L) for about 6 months, it's usually about 6-8p over the price of normal Shell 95 Octane.
 
Steep said:
Electric vehicles are going nowhere (pun) until they can come up with one that can carry the load of a transit van with the range of a transit van ~600 miles on a tank/charge.
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I never understood why they couldn't build in a re-charge as you drive system.
Surely its possible / feasible ( Dynamo lights anyone? )
 
northernbiff said:
I usually find that the people that moan about the cost of a litre of refined fuel that has been through an expensive and protracted process etc etc
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Its the unwarranted price rise against the (rapid) falling costs per barrel.
Speaking as an idiot that gets through about 100L / week thats the cost of a gallon "wasted"

northernbiff said:
are the same dummies that happily part with a pound for a half litre of water from the tap put into a bottle marked 'pure'.
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Not this Dummy tap water every time, for me, except in an "emergency" ..
Besides the water authorities spend millions££ purifying water, adding chemical carcinogens ( allegedly) etc ... what could possible go wrong? ...
 
Cobra said:
I never understood why they couldn't build in a re-charge as you drive system.
Surely its possible / feasible ( Dynamo lights anyone? )
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I've wondered exactly the same thing.
 
Isn't that what the hybrids do? and there's regenerative braking.
 
Cobra said:
I never understood why they couldn't build in a re-charge as you drive system.
Surely its possible / feasible ( Dynamo lights anyone? )
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The Outlander PHEV has something like that (presume others do?) but not sure how effective it is/gains in real life use.
I think it's range on a full charge, without any extra input from the internal gizmo, is only around 14 (ish) miles though, so obviously still needs a combustion engine.
 
simon ess said:
I think that Newton bloke had something to say about that.
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Yeah he's always got something to say, blood fruit farmer couldn't even keep his apples on his trees :D

But seriously, tyres going round on roads, other moving parts drive shafts etc, it must be possible to harness the energy somehow ...
Obviously if I knew how I'd make a fortune :D
 
Cobra said:
I never understood why they couldn't build in a re-charge as you drive system.
Surely its possible / feasible ( Dynamo lights anyone? )
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Dynamo lights are powered by your legs. What would power the dynamo recharging system on an electric car? The motor that is powered by the battery you are trying to charge. Can you see what the problem is with this?:naughty: . Recharging while slowing down works, there is kinetic energy going spare and can be converted into stored electrical energy by a dynamo (normally it is turned into heat by the brakes), recharging while maintaing a constant speed doesn't.

If you knew how to make a system that recovered more energy than it put in, you would win the Nobel prize for Physics, never mind making a fortune. Better get to work.:clap:
 
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