Both companies are also fairly new (less so with Lencarta) and the ability to forecast for stock will take a couple of full trading years at least. However, seeing as most stuff is made in large batches then it can often be 6 months between manufacturing jobs. Also, if somebody in another country calls off a big order then you're knackered, again until the next manufacturing cycle.
I know it's not what everybody wants to hear but that is the way of the world. After a couple of years sales information you can normally start to forecast reasonably well for future requirements.
Steve
My post is about the situation in general and Lencarta in particular dont assume that these comments apply to any other supplier, as most people on this forum already know, I dont comment about Elemental or the products they sell.
What Steve is saying is basically right.
The making/delivery cycle from China is a minimum of 3 months but can be much longer.
1. Get the batch made. In the case of fast-moving items like the SmartFlash heads, a batch of 1000 takes a few weeks
2. Wait while batches of other goods on the same order are made.
3. Wait for the ship. There are plenty of ships but its still often a couple of weeks or so. In theory, small quantities can also be sent by air and Lencarta does do that, but the cost is pretty horrific and it can only be done with small quantities of high value items such as flash heads. Items such as beauty dishes simply cant ever be sent economically by air, theyre too big and too heavy.
4. 5 weeks on the ship, sometimes just over 4 weeks.
5. Then the goods have to clear Customs and duties etc have to be paid before release. Anything from a couple of days to 10 days.
6. Deliver to the warehouse (usually around 5 containers, meaning 5 lorries) Unpack the containers, check the stock, get it on the shelves etc, around 3-5 days.
Obviously theres an enormous amount of money tied up in all this, and with small Companies like Lencarta the cost doesnt end there because every pallet of goods stored in the warehouse is attracting a weekly storage charge (very large Companies with their own warehouse dont have the same problem and nor do tiny firms that can do their own warehousing). So, the name of the game is to make as often and as little as possible and to try to anticipate what the demand will be, but to make enough for the batch to be economical. And thats where the problem lies, because although Lencarta has been around for a fairly long time and the general organic growth is fairly predictable, the SmartFlash is relatively new and its proved impossible to anticipate the demand based on the same period for last year sales of the SmartFlash have simply exploded. And of course there are new products being added all the time, there are now a total of 20 different softboxes (not counting their various honeycombs and different speedrings for different makes of flash head) and 4 beauty dishes, not counting their honeycombs) and sales of those are hard to predict too, with some just flying off the shelves and others selling much more slowly.
Of course, Lencarta gets some stick whenever things are out of stock and loses sales too, so whats the answer? I wish I knew
Theres a clever accounting programme that rings warning bells whenever a particular item is either getting low or selling at a faster (or slower) rate than anticipated, and the new website does much the same thing, but keeping everything in stock without wasting a lot of money by having too much stock still requires both a lot of luck and a crystal ball neither of which exist
One of the problems that Lencarta has that smaller businesses dont have is that there are both trade customers and large studios that place very large orders. Thats a nice problem to have, but still a problem.
So, all I can do is to apologise when items go out of stock, and hope that you understand.
Seems to be endemic with products manufactured in the far east, even once they've been made, they've then got to be (literally) shipped half way round the world.
