Driverless cars.

[Garry Edwards]

Wow. I'd never heard of these and those are amazing. Who cares if they have to "think" a bit before crossing junctions? Plenty of drivers do the same.

Not everything needs the agility of Spot or Atlas (and yes, I know those aren't autonomous yet)

BTW, driverless cars are almost nothing to do with cars. It's driverless *lorries* where the money is. 24/7 trucking with none of those annoying mandatory rest stops or wasting space on cabs or sleeping compartments. Combine with a road surface that charges them as you drive and you're talking about a revolution.

But sure, people prefer driving, right?

Yes, I saw a documentary about a very highly skilled lorry driver in the USA, his job is to drive every single route to teach the computer. It must be the most boring job in the world and he isn't making himself popular with the other drivers who he will put out of work, but it does show the future. I presume that this approach is a very big step up from just having sensors and map info to work with.

 

[Cobra]

But sure, people prefer driving, right?

I drive approxanaly 1000 miles per week for work, and that isn't what I do for a living, I have "Proper" ( ) work to do when I arrive at the places.
And yes I do enjoy the driving.

 

[Cobra]

The problem won't be the technology but the random actions of the humans in other vehicles.

Human drivers Random? surely not

 

[broc]

I drive approxanaly 1000 miles per week for work, and that isn't do for a living, I have "Proper" ( ) work to do when I arrive at the places.
And yes I do enjoy the driving.

20-30 years ago I used to do 25000-30000 business miles per year to and from clients, always in a rush. I have to say the novelty of driving that sort of mileage wore thin after a few years......

Now that I only do 4000-6000 miles per year without the sense of urgency I am enjoying it again.

 

[Cobra]

20-30 years ago I used to do 25000

I'll see your 25,000 and raise you 25,000

always in a rush.

I probably spend as much time driving as working,
Rush? what's that then?
I have no deadlines to meet

 

[Garry Edwards]

I've just had a phone call from SWIMBO, she has my car at the moment, long story that I won't bore you with.
She has a flat on the trailer she's towing. Question: How would a driverless car manage with the different width, length, steering and road positioning characteristics of a trailer?

 

[wyx087]

Question: How would a driverless car manage with the different width, length, steering and road positioning characteristics of a trailer?

Considering cars have had anti-lock sensors for years, that is able to sense wheel lock better than humans, prevent lock better than humans and maintain control of the car better than humans.......... accounting for a trailer is a very simple task.

If there is a gorilla in the trailer shifting its weight unpredictably, however, that's a different story.

 

[Garry Edwards]

Considering cars have had anti-lock sensors for years, that is able to sense wheel lock better than humans, prevent lock better than humans and maintain control of the car better than humans.......... accounting for a trailer is a very simple task.

If there is a gorilla in the trailer shifting its weight unpredictably, however, that's a different story.

That's an interesting viewpoint . . . Do you actually tow large trailers?

 

[Cobra]

I find it baffling that some people are prepared to put their trust, ne lives in the hands of a computer, with as yet, with unproven technology,
singing its praises at every opportunity.

 

[broc]

I'll see your 25,000 and raise you 25,000


I probably spend as much time driving as working,
Rush? what's that then?
I have no deadlines to meet

When I worked as an IT consultant I was expected to bill my time with the client. This led to some interesting discussions about travel time; at first our employer allowed us to account for customer related travel time as 'non-billable customer related' time which counted towards our working week. As a result I usually ended up working 4 days a week with each day consisting of 3 hours travel & 7 hours working.

Then the accountants got involved & said we had to travel in our own time ..... This was so we could bill up to 37 hours a week against clients.

In response we suggested we would commute to our branch office in our own time to start work at 9am & then travel on to client sites for the day, leaving the client in time to get back to our office for a 5:30pm finish. As I was living in the North East and visiting clients in Edinburgh, Manchester & Leeds this often meant a 200+ mile round trip which left very little time for work.

Management soon climbed down & reverted to our old system

 

[broc]

Considering cars have had anti-lock sensors for years, that is able to sense wheel lock better than humans, prevent lock better than humans and maintain control of the car better than humans.......... accounting for a trailer is a very simple task.

If there is a gorilla in the trailer shifting its weight unpredictably, however, that's a different story.

I had an automatic Honda Accord estate, when leaving an ice covered car park the driving wheels started to slip, then the dashboard lit up like a Christmas tree as all the traction control, ABS, stability control systems went into melt-down. It needed a trip to the dealers to reset them.

 

[gman]

I had an automatic Honda Accord estate, when leaving an ice covered car park the driving wheels started to slip, then the dashboard lit up like a Christmas tree as all the traction control, ABS, stability control systems went into melt-down. It needed a trip to the dealers to reset them.

I've never seen such a thing in a multitude of 6th, 7th and 8th Gen Honda Accords, although they were all manual transmissions. I wonder if it was related to the auto box somehow?

 

[gman]

But if you didn’t write the software that’s controlling the car, are you I charge of it?

I remember something about the Honda Legend and how the Honda lawyers wouldn't allow it to operate it's self drive for any longer than about 17 seconds or something because they feared Honda could be deemed responsible (and liable) for "driving the car".

 

[JonathanRyan]

I've just had a phone call from SWIMBO, she has my car at the moment, long story that I won't bore you with.
She has a flat on the trailer she's towing. Question: How would a driverless car manage with the different width, length, steering and road positioning characteristics of a trailer?

My guess is that there will be specialised vehicles. Many people have a trailer that they use a couple of times a year. Since cars are self driving, when you need one you could order it and it would appear at your house. If you use one most of the time then you'd simply buy (or more likely rent - I think car ownership is coming to an end) a vehicle with extra storage and a load balancing program. I don't tow large trailers but it certainly sounds like the kind of problem that could be solved by adding extra driven wheels and a computerised system to adjust the power to each of them. If humans can learn a skill in a year or two they can teach it to a (yet to be invented) ML system which can teach all the others. Obviously on an electric vehicle it's far simpler to have multiple driven wheels all running at different speeds and upgrading skills is basically a matter of paying for them.

I find it baffling that some people are prepared to put their trust, ne lives in the hands of a computer, with as yet, with unproven technology,
singing its praises at every opportunity.

I find it more baffling that people think that "I like driving" and "I don't trust computers" is an argument that will stack up against a 60% reduction in road freight costs, many fewer deaths on the road and a vastly different way of living (as a small example - why do you need a garage? Why do supermarkets need acres of parking? Why are city roads congested?).

I didn't buy a digital camera for a while because they weren't good enough. Now they are. People still use film cameras because they like film. But they are getting priced out of the market and cameras seldom kill people.

 

[wyx087]

That's an interesting viewpoint . . . Do you actually tow large trailers?

I, too, find your viewpoint interesting. Thinking those physics characteristics cannot be modelled and programmed into autonomous vehicles.

No, I never towed anything and I'll never need to or plan to. I'd happily rent purpose built vehicle or pay someone to drive those purpose built vehicles.

I had an automatic Honda Accord estate, when leaving an ice covered car park the driving wheels started to slip, then the dashboard lit up like a Christmas tree as all the traction control, ABS, stability control systems went into melt-down. It needed a trip to the dealers to reset them.

This is a case of system not adequate for the very extreme conditions. I'd imagine there will be warnings in the manual regarding ABS/traction control cannot defy physics.

In autonomous vehicle terms, it's like asking today's autonomous vehicle to drive on busy high street: asking too much of the system.

 

[Garry Edwards]

I, too, find your viewpoint interesting. Thinking those physics characteristics cannot be modelled and programmed into autonomous vehicles.

That lack of understanding of the realities is also interesting.
Yes, sensors could help this mythical vehicle to 'understand' the extra length, width and height and adjust the road position accordingly, and presumably could also take account of the extra weight, nose weight and reduced effective power, but there's much more to towing a large, heavy trailer than these obvious elements.

We already have this problem with modern 4WD vehicles. A computer changes from two to four-wheel drive, or from high to low ratio, when the vehicle loses control in slippery conditions - it needs the problem to exist before it can react to it - and by then it's too late. Conversely, a skilled driver sees the need in advance and selects the correct drive a second or so before it's needed, and so the problem doesn't exist. This and similar issues would exist, in spades, with a self-driving vehicle.

No, I never towed anything and I'll never need to or plan to. I'd happily rent purpose built vehicle or pay someone to drive those purpose built vehicles.

Thanks for confirming that, although it was obvious. Trailers are frequently needed for both cost and manoeuvrability. For example, a large HGV can't drive to our farm, there isn't enough space, but even our large plant trailer can, with a skilled driver - and people who tow large trailers have skills. So, your idea of hiring a purpose-built vehicle (whatever that may be) wouldn't work, assuming that you are actually able to drive it. And paying someone to do it seems to confirm that manual skills matter and that an autonomous vehicle simply couldn't do it.

 

[wyx087]

Yes, sensors could help this mythical vehicle to 'understand' the extra length, width and height and adjust the road position accordingly, and presumably could also take account of the extra weight, nose weight and reduced effective power, but there's much more to towing a large, heavy trailer than these obvious elements.

We already have this problem with modern 4WD vehicles. A computer changes from two to four-wheel drive, or from high to low ratio, when the vehicle loses control in slippery conditions - it needs the problem to exist before it can react to it - and by then it's too late. Conversely, a skilled driver sees the need in advance and selects the correct drive a second or so before it's needed, and so the problem doesn't exist. This and similar issues would exist, in spades, with a self-driving vehicle.

You are projecting existing technology as limitations onto future technologies. It's like the famous quote "640K is more memory than anyone will ever need on a computer"

The reason human need to predict likely outcome is because humans are slow and the human-vehicle interface is very cumbersome. Your comparison is based on the assumption that both vehicle and human would notice the problem at same time, meaning waaaay after initial signs of possible problem. Eg. A small rotational difference between trailer wheels and/or drive wheels is not going to be noticeable to any human, it can be used to begin correction actions by autonomous vehicles.

And paying someone to do it seems to confirm that manual skills matter and that an autonomous vehicle simply couldn't do it currently.

Fixed it for you, it only confirms currently viable autonomous vehicles for that task don't exist.

Never say never

 

[gman]

I have noticed many AWD systems now being advertised as being able to predict a situation before it happens, although when looking at the detail it is still using feedback from driver actions so presumably it still needs the driver to spot the problem in advance for the system to be fully effective. I'm sure there is one system which reads the temperature of the road so it can tell when it's ice, but that may be a prototype, I can't remember.

There are other predictive systems though such as detecting speed bumps etc and the suspension automatically adjusting to keep the car smooth and level. There's also the AUDI A8 (might be the S8) which can detect a side impact and the suspension raises that side of the car to increase protection.

 

[JonathanRyan]

Thanks for confirming that, although it was obvious. Trailers are frequently needed for both cost and manoeuvrability. For example, a large HGV can't drive to our farm, there isn't enough space, but even our large plant trailer can, with a skilled driver - and people who tow large trailers have skills. So, your idea of hiring a purpose-built vehicle (whatever that may be) wouldn't work, assuming that you are actually able to drive it. And paying someone to do it seems to confirm that manual skills matter and that an autonomous vehicle simply couldn't do it.

I've often thought that we could spend some more time perfecting hovercrafts. They can lift huge payloads and can go anywhere. And if you can cross all terrain reasonably easily then a fairly simple anti obstacle system would work.

We already have this problem with modern 4WD vehicles. A computer changes from two to four-wheel drive, or from high to low ratio, when the vehicle loses control in slippery conditions - it needs the problem to exist before it can react to it - and by then it's too late.

And yet automatic BMWs change down *before* they reach an uphill . Human drivers have skills that allow them to predict terrain. It then becomes a computing problem to map those skills onto a machine. It's a problem that can be solved with sufficient computing power and money. Now it may be cheaper for a while to pay an expert driver for the 5% of cases where it's too costly to develop an autonomous vehicle. But I'm guessing not for long.

 

[Cobra]

I find it more baffling that people think that "I like driving" and "I don't trust computers" is an argument that will stack up against a 60% reduction in road freight costs,

And even more baffling is the fact that some how driver-less cars will cause a 60% decrease in road freight
Despite the fact that wasn't even the point in question.

I didn't buy a digital camera for a while because they weren't good enough. Now they are. People still use film cameras because they like film.

You have answered your own question

A computer changes from two to four-wheel drive, or from high to low ratio, when the vehicle loses control in slippery conditions - it needs the problem to exist before it can react to it - and by then it's too late.

Bang on Garry

 

[JonathanRyan]

And even more baffling is the fact that some how driver-less cars will cause a 60% decrease in road freight

I think you might have missed a word out there

 

[Garry Edwards]

Interesting comments from well-intentioned people but who have zero knowledge of actually driving vehicles with large, heavy trailers in real-world conditions . . .

Just one example - yes, temperature sensors could guess that snow or ice may be present ahead, I suppose - but climate change has pretty much killed off snow and replaced it with mud in rural locations, and mud is, most of the time, more of a challenge.

 

[Cobra]

Interesting comments from well-intentioned people but who have zero knowledge of actually driving vehicles with large, heavy trailers in real-world conditions . . .

 

[Bobsyeruncle]

And yet automatic BMWs change down *before* they reach an uphill

Really?
How does that work?

 

[Cobra]

Really?
How does that work?

It makes sense now, it's wired into the indicator loom, and takes the power from them

 

[JonathanRyan]

Really?
How does that work?

GPS.

It knows what road you're on, where you are on it and what speed you are doing so it really isn't hard to predict that there's a hill ahead. I mean, that's what the sales chap told me and I have no reason to doubt him. And if it doesn't work like that, I'm off to the patent office this afternoon. Of course it relies on your buying their satnav which is (1) not included and (2) ferociously expensive but that's BMW for you - great ideas for a small percentage of their customers.

Sensing mud ahead is a trickier one but I don't see how it's that hard. Ground radar/lidar plus recent weather in the area, geological data and the information from every single vehicle that has already passed over this spot should be enough. But is there enough money in it to make it worthwhile? I bet we leave the countryside to the last - maybe we'll still allow people to drive manually there for 20 years or so.

 

[Garry Edwards]

I bet we leave the countryside to the last - maybe we'll still allow people to drive manually there for 20 years or so.

Yes, I bet we do, it's all about the money.
Mobile phone companies claim something like 95% coverage by population and it may be true, but our postcode (with 36 households in a 24 square mile area) doesn't seem to count and our mobile phone coverage is a joke and we have to rely on two-ways.

GPS.

Sensing mud ahead is a trickier one but I don't see how it's that hard. Ground radar/lidar plus recent weather in the area, geological data and the information from every single vehicle that has already passed over this spot should be enough.

Mud can appear suddenly because someone has just driven from a field to a road, so there won't be any data for that, or because someone else got a bit stuck a few minutes ago and deposited some mud on the road, and mud may affect just one or perhaps two wheels, but can still cause an instant loss of control.

At the end of the day, nothing can ever beat a wide-awake, skilled driver who is driving a vehicle with zero technology. Will that ever change? Well, the innovation will take place, and claims will be made about it. Thankfully though, I'm old and will be dead long before our choices are taken away from us.

 

[JonathanRyan]

Mud can appear suddenly because someone has just driven from a field to a road, so there won't be any data for that, or because someone else got a bit stuck a few minutes ago and deposited some mud on the road, and mud may affect just one or perhaps two wheels, but can still cause an instant loss of control.

But at least your loss of control will make it safer for the next vehicle

I mean if it's *that* important you could send a smaller/lighter/more expendable vehicle in front of the main one to report back on road conditions 30 seconds before the important truck arrives. It could even carry a red flag or something so people know it's expendable. But I bet it's not really that important.

 

[Garry Edwards]

But at least your loss of control will make it safer for the next vehicle

I mean if it's *that* important you could send a smaller/lighter/more expendable vehicle in front of the main one to report back on road conditions 30 seconds before the important truck arrives. It could even carry a red flag or something so people know it's expendable. But I bet it's not really that important.

Jonathan,
You're a nice guy and I have great respect for your opinions on many subjects, but this subject is clearly well outside your experience
Just to bring you into the real world, my youngest son, a farmer, has been working 20-hour days harvesting, currently rained off. This gives him an opportunity to rest but doesn't solve any of the problems.
Due to the worst rainfall in history in February, followed by a long hot dry spell, the crops are well behind. The estimate is that the yield will be around 25% down this year, but that's just a guess because they still can't bring the crops in. This time last year they had not only finished harvesting but had already finished the drilling (drilling doesn't involve a Black and Decker drill, it's a bluddy great machine that sows the crops needed for next year).

Right now, most minor public roads in rural areas have patches of mud, and are dangerous. Fortunately though there are few accidents, probably because townies don't use them.

So, where are these extra vehicles and extra people going to come from?

Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question, I know that you can't answer it. That isn't a reflection on your limitations, because there is no answer.

 

[Deleted member 49428]

I, too, find your viewpoint interesting. Thinking those physics characteristics cannot be modelled and programmed into autonomous vehicles.

No, I never towed anything and I'll never need to or plan to. I'd happily rent purpose built vehicle or pay someone to drive those purpose built vehicles.


This is a case of system not adequate for the very extreme conditions. I'd imagine there will be warnings in the manual regarding ABS/traction control cannot defy physics.

In autonomous vehicle terms, it's like asking today's autonomous vehicle to drive on busy high street: asking too much of the system.

My Guess is that driverless tech follows EV's and trailers may become part of new tech development, think sensors, computers and maybe even with motors powered by the cars battery.

 

[wyx087]

You're a nice guy and I have great respect for your opinions on many subjects, but this subject is clearly well outside your experience

The ability to reason, ability to imagine and ability to think beyond one's experience is clearly seen in many posters here.....

All these talk of autonomous vehicles can't handle trailer or rough terrain. I think you better not let them know, because obviously people on photography forum don't have your vast experience:

Feature: How connected and autonomous technology is being utilised by farm and off-road vehicles - SMMT

Automation and driverless technology are tipped as major growth areas in the HGV and passenger…

www.smmt.co.uk

 

[Garry Edwards]

The ability to reason, ability to imagine and ability to think beyond one's experience is clearly seen in many posters here.....

All these talk of autonomous vehicles can't handle trailer or rough terrain. I think you better not let them know, because obviously people on photography forum don't have your vast experience:

Feature: How connected and autonomous technology is being utilised by farm and off-road vehicles - SMMT

Automation and driverless technology are tipped as major growth areas in the HGV and passenger…

www.smmt.co.uk

Yes, very sophisticated farm machinery is now in use, but it's well beyond the financial reach of most farms. Its primary (real world) function (in the UK) is to allow the drivers to work incredibly long hours, but when it suffers a hiccup it still needs the high level of skill that only experienced farm workers possess, and it's virtually useless when the ground is 'soft'. And this technology doesn't have any effect driving on the road. Basically what the driver does, in a specific field, is to record his manual actions for future use.

The situation may be different in the USA, and they may be able to use it there to save on skilled worker wages.
There's an interesting photo in that linked article, showing a dual wheel machine which again, is common in the massive landscape of the USA. We have, among others, a very large 270 HP tractor. In theory, we'd like dual wheels on it (they're available) but adding them would increase the width by 2 metres, so it wouldn't go through any field gates or on any road - illustrating the different situations and different challenges in different countries.

And as for electric vehicles, how long would their endurance be when they use 12 litres of diesel per hour? What would happen if it runs out of juice, miles from the nearest charging point? I suppose that we could tow it there with a diesel-powered vehicle . . . a bit heavy to push, at 30 or so tonnes.

As for my own "vast experience" no, I'm just a very ordinary guy with a normal level of driving experience, and there's one type of driving licence that I don't have. All that I have is licences to drive:
All motorbikes
Cars
Trailers
7.5 tonne
Tractor
Telehandler
Track laying
HGV1 (which includes 2 and 3)

Tractors don't have a specific test to drive on the road but insurers insist on them.

 

[mj4456]

Who is my wife going to nag in a ‘driverless car’?

 

[BADGER.BRAD]

When I drove a truck for a living I spent a small amount of time with a sat nav after spending half my time swearing at it I dumped it and reverted to my own navigation. Maybe a driver less vehicle will give your wife the same pleasure ( plenty nagging time) but this time it will be your fault for buying it rather than driving the thing !

 

[gman]

A fairly advanced, terrain reading truck has already been done; the TerraMax. Might cost a few bob though.

 

[RWDW]

I absolutely detest driving!

I have always said if i won the lottery I would hire a chauffeur rather than buy a nice car.

If you look at air traffic accidents the majority of them are caused by human error where the highly trained pilot believes he knows better than what the automated systems are telling them so a skilled driver in a car won't always perform better than a well designed automated system.

Peoples own judgement of skill level has been hown to incredibly inaccurate. Most think they are better than average at driving but this is statistically impossible.

 

[broc]

I absolutely detest driving!

I have always said if i won the lottery I would hire a chauffeur rather than buy a nice car.

If you look at air traffic accidents the majority of them are caused by human error where the highly trained pilot believes he knows better than what the automated systems are telling them so a skilled driver in a car won't always perform better than a well designed automated system.

Peoples own judgement of skill level has been hown to incredibly inaccurate. Most think they are better than average at driving but this is statistically impossible.

recent history of the Boeing 737 Max is a good advert for a 'well designed automated system' in aircraft.

 

[Cobra]

Peoples own judgement of skill level has been hown to incredibly inaccurate.

I say that its more a case, that far too many people ( drivers ) are incredibly arrogant, making dangerous maneuvers, and expecting everyone else to get out the way, by braking hard or making a maneuver ( if its safe to do so). thereby avoiding the potential accident the afore mentioned person has created, by his or her act in the first place.

 

[RWDW]

recent history of the Boeing 737 Max is a good advert for a 'well designed automated system' in aircraft.

Thats a really good point TBH and there will always be a fault somewhere.

Thae stats show air craft crashes:

55% Pilot error
27% Mechanical or other failure including automated systems

So, in general the automated system is considerably better than a highly trained Pilot?

Now look at the person driving the car next to you - when did they last pass a simple driving test? When did they last spend time in a simulator experiencing difficult scenarios? When did they last have a medical?

A diverless system isn't there yet but I don't think it's too far away (Hopefully!)

 

[MartynK]

I absolutely detest driving!

I dislike driving in the UK and avoid it if possible, which is most of the time! I have always enjoyed driving in SA - outside the major cities which have horrendous traffic problems - though.