Definite big change in our weather.

Hi everyone. Thanks for all the encouraging comments!

Just been updating myself with the computer outputs and it seems that it's all still on.
It looks like Saturday, Sunday, Monday and into Tuesday will be predominately dry with plenty of winter sunshine over the bulk of the UK due to a "blocking" high pressure system anchoring itself over us. Obviously, like I said before, fog, freezing fog and frost will all become common features especially by night time.
Then on Wednesday the real cold bites in as the wind start to turn in from the east, that's the bit I'm keeping my eyes on as it has the potential to deliver some snowy stuff. While I have a good idea what part of the UK will get affected (mostly the eastern side of the UK), how much of the white stuff will fall is an another thing all together!
 
Keep it coming matey :clap:

Anything is going to be better than this bloody awful wet stuff we're getting at the moment.
 
Ian, thanks for the ever fascinating posts.

Your predictions have been spot on in the past, so I take them seriously.

I'm also seriously having a few quid on a white Christmas!!!

Thanks again, keep us posted :thumbs:
 
DuncanDisorderly said:
Ian - what's the odds of it lasting long enough to give us a white Christmas ?
That would be so lush :love:
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:) Well, I've been watching the outputs as they churn out and . . . well, let's put it this way, the latest runs had the effect of making my eyebrows rise up and blinking my eyes a lot.
There seems to be a lot of similarity to this December and 1981's. Still early days though.
 
Ian D J said:
:) Well, I've been watching the outputs as they churn out and . . . well, let's put it this way, the latest runs had the effect of making my eyebrows rise up and blinking my eyes a lot.
There seems to be a lot of similarity to this December and 1981's. Still early days though.
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Thanks for the updates Ian :thumbs:
As for Dec '81
Yep I remember it well, as though it was only Oo 28 years ago
Thats it I'm hibernating :D
 
As it stands, the cold weather beginning at the weekend and beyond is pretty much nailed on, and the chance of snow at the middle of next week is still there with the eastern side of the UK seeing the highest chance of it.
In fact, it looks like a long lasting cold spell as well, lasting all the way to Christmas Day. Thus the chance of a white Christmas is very high.
 
I don't suppose a request for warm and sunny in the North East for 29th would have any chance of success then :lol:

Oh well, I just hope the snow confines itself to the East and does not head inland! Have warned those I know who live in eastern areas so they are well prepared :D
 
:lol: Ian you are the man!

Check this linky!

Wish I had a bet yesterday now!!
 
How cold did it get in 1981? I've just had this off www.metcheck.com!!

weather.JPG


-18 I can deal with, but I'm not sure that ~300mph winds are a good thing!!
 
your predictions are true so far!

we had an intense fog last night and this morning. In fact it was freezing fog in the morning :eek:

Had some ice build up on the tripod and camera this morning.
 
Ian forgive my ignorance here, are you a pro weatherman, or is this stuff just run from your home computer?
 
casfan said:
Ian forgive my ignorance here, are you a pro weatherman, or is this stuff just run from your home computer?
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Going on last years accuracy I would say a very talented armature
( now after all this praise Ian, don't you dare let me down :D )
 
casfan said:
Ian forgive my ignorance here, are you a pro weatherman, or is this stuff just run from your home computer?
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No, not a pro at all. I'm just an ordinary guy who has a passion for meteorology.
I do get all my information from raw data that are churned out at regular intervals by them large computers (GFS, ECM, UK met office, JPA and all the various ensemble datas) via the internet and am not at all influenced by the telly media forecasters. I then cross examine all that data and then "go for it" when I see a major agreement on all fronts. As you can see, it's working.

This forecast seem to be coming along very nicely as planned. This weekend is expected to be cool and settled with fog and frost (although not as widespread and severe than I thought) being a regular occurance at night time. So far, so good.
However, not everywhere will be dry as a rash of scattered showers will be clipping the south east for the next couple of days.

But the real interest is in the form of a series of "troughs" coming in from the north east as we go into the middle of next week. That will have the effect of bringing in even colder but clearer air over us, while at the same time providing enough instability to create wintry showers of sleet and snow (most likely as rain or sleet at sea level). They should be affecting most part of the UK by Wednesday.

Whatever the weather, have a great weekend! :)
 
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Well its already quite misty and damn cold here, I have even had to have the heating on all the time since lunchtime :lol:
 
It's been beautiful for the last couple of days here, for the first time in ages I actually feel like getting out and about with my camera!
 
woadrage said:
Assuming snow in Kent shortly before Christmas, Tornado is hauling a lunch special in the county on 21 December for anyone who wants to get track-side.

http://www.steamdreams.com/content/view/233/52/
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:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: Oh my! Now THAT's got to be my dream railway photo opportunity!! Actually, Tornado did pass through Folkestone only a few months ago but it was 9 pm by the time it turned up, which by then it was too bloody dark to take any decent pictures as it whizzed through the town (I didn't go to the station as I knew it would be packed out).

That link doesn't show exactly where and when the train will be travelling around Kent. If it coming down my way, it looks like the best place for me is down at Shakespeare's Cliff between Folkestone and Dover. Well spotted.

Back to my weather forecast. It seems to be nicely on track (no pun intended) where we're starting to feel the chill more and more as time passes. The risk of snow is still there from the middle part of the week onwards but I'm already getting reports of some sleetiness being seen in some parts of the UK.
 
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Ian D J said:
The risk of snow is still there from the middle part of the week onwards but I'm already getting reports of some sleetiness being seen in some parts of the UK.
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Ian
The rain late evening, last night, certainly appeared to have a "little sleet"
mixed in with it here. I guess it lasted about half an hour
 
Cobra said:

Ian
The rain late evening, last night, certainly appeared to have a "little sleet"
mixed in with it here. I guess it lasted about half an hour
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It's actually still early days but yes, the air is now cold enough at all levels to support a little wintryness in some of the heavy showers that are about (isolated and scattered in nature, though).

The countryfile forecast had just pretty much confirmed what I've been saying in the past week. Chilly and dry in the first half of the week, then turning BITTER cold in a fresh easterly wind originating all the way back to Sibera on Wednesday onwards. That does bring an increased risk of snow to the east of Scotland and England and South East of England. The west of the UK is likely to stay dry and sunny but very cold.
Because the air is going to be that much colder, breezy and drier on Wednesday onwards, it won't allow this lovely hoar frost to settle as well as fog (you need a damp and settled enviroment for that), instead it'll be of the "hard frost" variety where you can't see it but that's where the top soil becomes rock hard as it ices up. Brrrrrr.
 
Ian D J said:
That does bring an increased risk of snow to the east of Scotland and England and South East of England. The west of the UK is likely to stay dry and sunny but very cold.
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I was rather hoping for a little snow here in Cheshire to get some "wintry" shots, but I guess I could travel a little further east instead. :)
 
Ian D J said:
.....Because the air is going to be that much colder, breezy and drier on Wednesday onwards, it won't allow this lovely hoar frost to settle as well as fog (you need a damp and settled enviroment for that), instead it'll be of the "hard frost" variety where you can't see it but that's where the top soil becomes rock hard as it ices up. Brrrrrr.
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Thanks for the up-date :thumbs:
The fog I can live without :D
but its a shame about the hoar frosts though.
 
Ian D J said:
That link doesn't show exactly where and when the train will be travelling around Kent. If it coming down my way, it looks like the best place for me is down at Shakespeare's Cliff between Folkestone and Dover. Well spotted.
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It does show provisional timings as follows:

London Victoria 1000, Bromley S 1025, Tonbridge 1100-1400, Bromley S 1435, Victoria 1500

If you call the organiser (01483 209888) they should be able to confirm exact times and the route 7 days before the trip, ie tomorrow.

Looking at the provisionals, it doesn't look like it's going to be doing too much travelling - it looks as though it will be parked at Tonbridge for around 3 hours!
 
woadrage said:
It does show provisional timings as follows:

London Victoria 1000, Bromley S 1025, Tonbridge 1100-1400, Bromley S 1435, Victoria 1500

If you call the organiser (01483 209888) they should be able to confirm exact times and the route 7 days before the trip, ie tomorrow.

Looking at the provisionals, it doesn't look like it's going to be doing too much travelling - it looks as though it will be parked at Tonbridge for around 3 hours!
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Which made me wonder why it's called "The White Cliff Circular Special". :shake: :D :lol:
Oh well, at least it'll all be in broad daylight and it's about 45 minute's drive from Folkestone and plenty of time for people to take shots if Tornado's going to be sitting around for that length of time.

Will think on that one.

PS: Just realised I wouldn't be able to make it as I'd have to take the day off work (it's on a Monday).
 
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How's everyone finding this cold weather? :D Got a hard frost here, quite unusual for my location for early in the season given my coastal location.

Bear in mind that this is only just the taster, for the real cold should start to bite in from tomorrow onwards with snow expected to affect mainly the eastern side of the UK on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Typical - and a pity - that there is likely to be a breakdown to milder Atlantic-based stuff just before Christmas, but there WILL be that threat of "transitional" snow as the mild air try to muscle into this pool of cold air sitting over us.
That usually cause the rain to turn into snow/freezing rain on a temporary basis before it all turns back to rain but that's where we get some of our most nasty wintry conditions, especially over high ground. Something to bear in mind before you go travelling on the 23rd onwards.
 
Ian D J said:
How's everyone finding this cold weather? :D Got a hard frost here, quite unusual for my location for early in the season given my coastal location.
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Basically cold and wet here, Ian,though not a lot of rain today.
We had more than our "fair share" of that yesterday PM, and pretty much through the night it would appear
 
Ian D J said:
How's everyone finding this cold weather? :D Got a hard frost here, quite unusual for my location for early in the season given my coastal location.
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Getting colder here, although its not as bad as on top of the pennines!

Bear in mind that this is only just the taster, for the real cold should start to bite in from tomorrow onwards with snow expected to affect mainly the eastern side of the UK on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
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Well I hope it sticks to the east, vet coming Thursday and I want to get to do some more rugby pictures on Saturday :lol:

Typical - and a pity - that there is likely to be a breakdown to milder Atlantic-based stuff just before Christmas, but there WILL be that threat of "transitional" snow as the mild air try to muscle into this pool of cold air sitting over us.
That usually cause the rain to turn into snow/freezing rain on a temporary basis before it all turns back to rain but that's where we get some of our most nasty wintry conditions, especially over high ground. Something to bear in mind before you go travelling on the 23rd onwards.
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Great - heading off to Fife for the 28th so that should pretty much guarantee snow and bad travelling conditions for that time :lol:

Thanks for the updates, it gives me a better chance of planning early than the official forecasts :thumbs:
 
We're forecast snow for tmorrows, got a thick frost layer outside as I speak. Yayy.[well, not yay considering I'm meant to be out and about tomorrow, and I ain't never driven in cold stuffs before!!]
 
Yep frosty here too now, and snow showers forecast from about mid-day onwards :thumbs:
 
Cobra said:
Yep frosty here too now, and snow showers forecast from about mid-day onwards :thumbs:
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand its............................................
...................Raining :(
 
Snowing here, top prediction work Ian :thumbs:

I have to be honest and say I've not even bothered with a weather forecast since I found this thread, and you've been bang on the money (pretty much) with everything, so kudos to you Sir!
 
When is Lincs having any.............Im fed up with the dreary grey and damp
 
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