Definite big change in our weather.

Ian D J

Ian D J

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Ian D J
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This will come as a relief for those who's had enough of the rain and wind, for we should start to see a big change in our weather as we go towards the end part of the week and into the weekend.
The mildness, rain and wind will gradually be replaced by colder temperatures, sunny skies, fog and fog and of course, calmer winds.
But, and that's a big BUT . . . there's a trade off. I'm also hinting at the possibility of some snowfalls as we go into the middle part of next week. Yep, the first cold snap of this Winter is set to arrive.
Of course, it's all a long way off, but the Big Seven meteorological computers are all agreeing on the same thing . . . easterly winds coming in from the continent in 8 day's time. Hence why I've decided to do this "advanced warning" type thread.
It looks like you could get to capture your first snow scene a little earlier than normal. And it may well be worth your while making a dash to the bookies and place that bet on a white christmas before they start lowering the odds!
 
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SNOW :clap::notworthy::banana:YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
 
Was snow on the Lake District peaks last week, looked very nice. But alas it did its usuall and rained shortly afterwards.
If its gonna think about snowing soon, will start leaving the walking boots in the car just incase the road to work is too bad to drive down.
 
emmm it was snowing up here last week. co. durham that is in some places
 
Actually, I could add a bit more detail to my last post.

The weekend is looking set to be cold and settled with plenty of sunshine over most part of the country. So, yes, that London meet-up will be of a cold and crispy type. Thick coats, hats and gloves will be needed as temperatures struggle to get up to 5 C.
Then beyond that (into next week) it looks like an easterly wind will be setting in, bringing possible snow flurries down to sea levels in from the North Sea to the eastern side of England and East of Scotland. The western side of the UK will remain dry and very cold for the most part.
Widespread frost will become a regular occurance as temperatures falls to below freezing at night, and may struggle to get above freezing during the day in any fog patches.
Naturally, there WILL be danger of black ice as water run-off from the recent rains will continue to seep onto road surfaces.

But like I said before, this is me entering medium-range forecast territory but I only come up with this kind of news if I'm feeling confident about it.
Yes, it's true that some parts of the UK had already had snowfalls, but it was restricted to only the highest ground over Wales and Scotland (600 meters and higher). Here, I'm talking snow falling down to sea level and on coastal areas to the east of England . . . and even Kent!
 
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In all honesty Ian and no disrespect, I dont take any notice of forecasts as they cant even get it right on a weekly basis :shrug: After all they are only predictions ;)
 
u8myufo said:
In all honesty Ian and no disrespect, I dont take any notice of forecasts as they cant even get it right on a weekly basis :shrug: After all they are only predictions ;)
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:) And you're right, they're exactly what they are: predictions. Forecasting isn't an "exact science", but I can't beat that smug feeling whenever I do get it right. :D :D
But if I get it wrong - and I sometimes do . . . . well, let's put it this way I've developed a thick skin for occasions like that. :D :naughty:
 
Ian D J said:
:) And you're right, they're exactly what they are: predictions. Forecasting isn't an "exact science", but I can't beat that smug feeling whenever I do get it right. :D :D
But if I get it wrong - and I sometimes do . . . . well, let's put it this way I've developed a thick skin for occasions like that. :D :naughty:
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Don't suppose you know the Lotto numbers for Saturday? Oh wise one LoL
 
Claymore said:
Don't suppose you know the Lotto numbers for Saturday? Oh wise one LoL
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Well, let's put it this way, the chaotic nature involved in weather does makes being able to predict the lotto numbers a doddle . . . actually, having said that, I'm surprised I don't even do the lotto! :shrug: :lol:
 
I am buggered if it snows last time it snowed I couldn't get my car of the drive as the wheels are about 7" wide and the drive is a nice slope. And it is no good in the snow due to them wheels and it being lowered but it looks good and at least if it snows I have a proper camera to take pictures of it this time.
 
I have been in the snow for the last 5 weeks on and off in the Cairngorms. Not deep yet but it's a good start.

Arron
 
I'm on a weeks leave next week so don't want any snow thanks!
 
Ahh, finally a man who might be able to answer my question :D

When we see the BBC weather forcast these days they represent rain with that nice blue colour covering. It looks great, but it shows a ridiculous level of accuracy, the shape of the rain showers 24 hours in advance, even for little blobs, and exact locations. That just can't be possible, so I wondered at what resolution you start to get to, say, 90% confidence 24 hours in advance with your predictions.

I would hazard a guess that its within 50-100 miles. Let me give an example of what I mean incase I have made that as clear as mud.

Lets say that there is a storm blowing over the atlantic that is circular, radius 20 miles. We want to predict where it will go. To do so you predict where the center of that shower will be, and clearly you can do this to differing levels of certainty on different scales.

ie.
99.9% certainty to within 1000 miles 24 hours from now
95% certainty to within 100 miles
85% certainty to within 50 miles

You get the idea. Anyway, I wanna know what confidence levels the met work to and to what resolution. I appreciate that this is a gross over simplification, but it's just to get some idea.
 
Squawk said:
Ahh, finally a man who might be able to answer my question :D

When we see the BBC weather forcast these days they represent rain with that nice blue colour covering. It looks great, but it shows a ridiculous level of accuracy, the shape of the rain showers 24 hours in advance, even for little blobs, and exact locations. That just can't be possible, so I wondered at what resolution you start to get to, say, 90% confidence 24 hours in advance with your predictions.

I would hazard a guess that its within 50-100 miles. Let me give an example of what I mean incase I have made that as clear as mud.

Lets say that there is a storm blowing over the atlantic that is circular, radius 20 miles. We want to predict where it will go. To do so you predict where the center of that shower will be, and clearly you can do this to differing levels of certainty on different scales.

ie.
99.9% certainty to within 1000 miles 24 hours from now
95% certainty to within 100 miles
85% certainty to within 50 miles

You get the idea. Anyway, I wanna know what confidence levels the met work to and to what resolution. I appreciate that this is a gross over simplification, but it's just to get some idea.
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Hi, that's a very good question and I'll try and give a good answer.

Anything between 3 hours to 36 hours ahead is classed as "mesoscale modelling", that's hi-resolution output to you and me. That's where them computers has a very good handle of what the forecast is going to be like as it gathers upper air, sea and land data and number crunches it into the most accurate forecast it could muster up.
However, 48 hours and beyond is classed as "medium range" forecast. That's when the resolution drops back as the chaotic nature of weather becomes more apparent.

Still not quite happy with the answer? Well, I've found this handy little link straight from the horse's mouth: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/hoursahead/mesoscale.html
 
Ian D J said:
Hi, that's a very good question and I'll try and give a good answer.

Anything between 3 hours to 36 hours ahead is classed as "mesoscale modelling", that's hi-resolution output to you and me. That's where them computers has a very good handle of what the forecast is going to be like as it gathers upper air, sea and land data and number crunches it into the most accurate forecast it could muster up.
However, 48 hours and beyond is classed as "medium range" forecast. That's when the resolution drops back as the chaotic nature of weather becomes more apparent.

Still not quite happy with the answer? Well, I've found this handy little link straight from the horse's mouth: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/hoursahead/mesoscale.html
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Interesting link, the gist of it is that 1-2 day forcasts work on a resolution of 12km, with 5 day forcasts at 40km (I presume these are square boxes, or at least co-ordinate based since squares don't map to a sphere). It doesn't mention confidence levels though, just the resolutions at work in the model themselves.

I'm pretty familiar with climate modeling (as an educated layman, no more), but not with weather. I'll see what I can find on google scholar I think.

Thanks for the info.
 
Any idea of forecast for Margate on Monday?!!!
 
Thanks Ian :thumbs: and to the doubters I say:-
IIRC,
Last year Ian was around 95% accurate in his "predictions" that he posted on here.
That was a damned sight better than the TV guys and gals.
(That wasn't just for snow, but other adverse conditions)

Keep posting Ian, I for one will keep reading with interest
and take heed :thumbs:
 
King of Groove said:
Any idea of forecast for Margate on Monday?!!!
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Cold and sunny. Frosty in the morning and later on in the evening. Small chance of an odd wintry shower coming in from the North Sea in the afternoon.
 
Cobra said:
Thanks Ian :thumbs: and to the doubters I say:-
IIRC,
Last year Ian was around 95% accurate in his "predictions" that he posted on here.
That was a damned sight better than the TV guys and gals.
(That wasn't just for snow, but other adverse conditions)

Keep posting Ian, I for one will keep reading with interest
and take heed :thumbs:
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:) ;) :thumbs: Cheers! I do get a lot of flak, but that is part of the "job" so I'm used to it, but it is nice to feel appreciated. Thank you! :clap:
 
Hi Ian, any snow set for Midlands (Nottingham/Newark area) next week?
I shall be at Center Parcs which would be an awesome location for snow
 
Ian D J said:
:) ;) :thumbs: Cheers! I do get a lot of flak, but that is part of the "job" so I'm used to it, but it is nice to feel appreciated. Thank you! :clap:
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Thank you Ian! as around 70% of my work is outside in the elements
I do tend to keep an eye on the forecasts.
 
Ian D J said:
Cold and sunny. Frosty in the morning and later on in the evening. Small chance of an odd wintry shower coming in from the North Sea in the afternoon.
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Thanks Ian, that's interesting what you say as I might head to Margate on Monday. Fancy a day down there travelling there by the new high speed Javelin trains.
 
I used to do a lot of flying and wind direction and strength were particularly important. It never ceased to amaze me how far wrong the 5 day forecasts were. You would look on Monday for the weekend and it would give a certain forecast. This would change every day until what actually happened bore no relation at all. Often the previous days forecast was way off.
The best flying forecast I ever saw was the one when I looked out of the window on Saturday morning!
I still look at forecasts just out of interest and they still irritate me, I'm just grateful I don't rely on them any more. I remember reading a book called the 'weather mans woman' or something similar. It was novel based on a late 19th century weatherman working for Canadian govt, he often got stick from the miners when his forecasts were wrong. How little things have changed!

Snow would be nice....

Dunc
 
Hi and good mornin' all you TPers. Well, while I'm up and about and steeling myself for another exciting (!) day in them tomato greenhouses, I had an another look at them computer model predictions and it seem that the general agreement for a "cold shot in the arm" is still there.
It seems that by Tuesday the eastern side of the UK stands the best chance of at least seeing some of the white stuff. The further inland and west you go, that chance fades away with things becoming drier and brighter but with always the risk of widespread fog (which will be freezing in places) and frost with icy patches on road that still has standing water from the recent rains.
Of course, it's all early days and even at this point, general sea-level snowfalls in December across the UK is quite rare, and dare I say it, even more so in today's "modern winter" (trying my hardest not to get dragged into this global warming theory).

Will this forecast turn out to be a failure? Or will we end up with an 1981-style December? Only one way to find out.
 
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Duncan.F said:
I used to do a lot of flying and wind direction and strength were particularly important. It never ceased to amaze me how far wrong the 5 day forecasts were. You would look on Monday for the weekend and it would give a certain forecast. This would change every day until what actually happened bore no relation at all. Often the previous days forecast was way off.
The best flying forecast I ever saw was the one when I looked out of the window on Saturday morning!
I still look at forecasts just out of interest and they still irritate me, I'm just grateful I don't rely on them any more. I remember reading a book called the 'weather mans woman' or something similar. It was novel based on a late 19th century weatherman working for Canadian govt, he often got stick from the miners when his forecasts were wrong. How little things have changed!

Snow would be nice....

Dunc
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:D That highlighted bit has a certain degree of irony about it, after all you don't get to see much in the way of weather when you're several hundred meters below ground. :lol: Unless it was MEANT to be ironic.

Not defending the "official forecasters" and what they do (besides, I hate these new style floating blue blobs on the telly forecasts), but like I said in one of my posts, medium range forecasts (five days forecasts are just that) isn't an exact science anyway. It's more a very useful guide based on very educated guesswork. That last sentence isn't exactly helping our cause I know but I've accepted that to be the case a long time ago.
And yes, it's true that even much shorter range forecasts, right down to within the hour isn't 100% accurate (but like to think that it's getting a lot better lately). As well as taking into account that the weather in one place could be a lot different to what it's being like in an another place only a few miles away, there's surface winds and temperatures being different to what it's like, say, 1000 meters up - something which I'm very sure you are familiar with. There's stuff like wind shear, inversion layers, lapse rates, etc, none which gets covered by the daily telly broadcasts. Instead people have to rely on specalist meteorological web sites for that kind of detailed data - but I'm sure you are very aware of that what with you being familar with flying. :naughty:

Blimey, I'm sounding more like a politician rather than as an amateur meteorologist!
Anyway, there you have it. Have a good day whatever the weather is (looking set to be fine over most part of the UK today - apart from the western fringe of the UK).
 
Morning,
Sorry Ian DJ, early hours of the morning when I did my reply. Wasn't intended as a personal attack!! Just the nomal whinging......
The book i mentioned, I think they were oil or gold prospectors thinking about it now. It was as much about his relationship with an Innuit woman as te weather. It just struck me how things are still similar, just the software and prety girls have changed!

Dunc
 
cheers Ian ,,,love reading your posts ,,spot on with your last snow reports
 
Thank goodness for that, means that the football might not be cancelled on Sunday or the rugby on Saturday :thumbs: Thanks Ian :D
 
Thank you Ian, your forecasts last yere were fantastic and I for one am glad you have decided to give us another helping.

If the weather decided to do something else instead, well so bit it. I for one am hoping that you are 100% accurate as I love the chaos that comes with the Snow. And from what you are saying it looks like my weekend drive up to the scottish borders should miss any snow nicely. Not that I mind driving in it, I love it. I just wish people who are scared of the white stuff on the roads wouldn't try!
 
Thanks Ian!
Last year I remember you nailed the prediction of snow when the football transfer window closed in january!

Awesome work that man!
 
Ian can you keep me up to date as week goes by on Monday forecast for Margate?!!! Much thanks. I fancy a day togging there travelling on the high speed train!
 
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