Car buyers should have 'long, hard think' about diesel

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wuyanxu said:
Good research. Not a lot more expensive in the grand scheme of things. If you consider savings on not having to buy fossil fuel and savings from cheaper servicing costs, it's not too expensive at all.
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But that £11k more for the EV powered Kona will be a real stopping point for many. It is a lot more expensive. Thats 1800 gallons of diesel more expensive or around 80,000 miles before you get the pay back.
If the majority of people are taking out lease schemes, 12K miles a year, it doesn't make financial sense. You can't make that up with lower servicing costs. I pay £330 a year for the Mazda 6 diesel servicing plan at the Mazda main dealer.
 
Byker28i said:
But that £11k more for the EV powered Kona will be a real stopping point for many. It is a lot more expensive. Thats 1800 gallons of diesel more expensive or around 80,000 miles before you get the pay back.
If the majority of people are taking out lease schemes, 12K miles a year, it doesn't make financial sense. You can't make that up with lower servicing costs. I pay £330 a year for the Mazda 6 diesel servicing plan at the Mazda main dealer.
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Remember that price different doesn't have to be recovered by the first owner, only have to be recovered over the whole life of the vehicle, which is more likely to be way beyond 100k miles.

According to this thread from Kona EV owners: https://www.speakev.com/threads/kona-ev-uk-service-plan.125778/
Kona S1 (£67)
Kona S2 (£150)
Kona S3 (£70)
Kona S4 (£157)
Kona S5 (£84)
Total £444 if needs 4 or £528 if needs 5 years
That is £100 saved every year, compared to ICE car servicing average to be £200 a year, which to my experience is on the very cheap side. Over 10 years likely life of the vehicle, that's £1000 saved just on servicing, ignoring cost to do timing belt, gearbox oil, etc.

£330 a year seems expensive for service plan........ even for a diesel.
 
wuyanxu said:
Remember that price different doesn't have to be recovered by the first owner, only have to be recovered over the whole life of the vehicle, which is more likely to be way beyond 100k .
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But it's because of the first buyer that car exists in the first place. Even if the depreciation were the same, you have to be some kind of mug to pay out all those extra £k's and never benefit from the savings when you can have the same vehicle with an ICE so much cheaper.
It is similar to the original owner of your Leaf, they took the brunt of the huge depreciation whilst you as the 2nd owner has reaped the benefits.
 
wuyanxu said:
Over 10 years likely life of the vehicle, that's £1000 saved just on servicing, ignoring cost to do timing belt, gearbox oil, etc.
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Do they require timing belt changes and gearbox oil though?
A lot of modern engines have timing chains or belt in oil, neither of which require replacement and gearboxes that don't require oil changes.
 
nilagin said:
But it's because of the first buyer that car exists in the first place. Even if the depreciation were the same, you have to be some kind of mug to pay out all those extra £k's and never benefit from the savings when you can have the same vehicle with an ICE so much cheaper.
It is similar to the original owner of your Leaf, they took the brunt of the huge depreciation whilst you as the 2nd owner has reaped the benefits.
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Win-win for everyone?

There is a supply shortage of new EV's, I'm not sure why you'd feel bad for the large amount of first owners lining up to buy likes of Kona, waiting 40+ weeks. So unless they are all mugs, it just tells us EV doesn't have to resort to heavy discount to sell.

nilagin said:
Do they require timing belt changes and gearbox oil though?
A lot of modern engines have timing chains or belt in oil, neither of which require replacement and gearboxes that don't require oil changes.
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Hence didn't include those in my calculation. I was being lenient and cutting you some slack. ;)
 
nilagin said:
But it's because of the first buyer that car exists in the first place. Even if the depreciation were the same, you have to be some kind of mug to pay out all those extra £k's and never benefit from the savings when you can have the same vehicle with an ICE so much cheaper.
It is similar to the original owner of your Leaf, they took the brunt of the huge depreciation whilst you as the 2nd owner has reaped the benefits.
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Just looked at Nissan website. With a 1k deposit it’s £469pm on a pcp!!! Not good value for money even allowing for the cheaper fuel cost.
 
wuyanxu said:
Remember that price different doesn't have to be recovered by the first owner, only have to be recovered over the whole life of the vehicle, which is more likely to be way beyond 100k miles.

According to this thread from Kona EV owners: https://www.speakev.com/threads/kona-ev-uk-service-plan.125778/
Kona S1 (£67)
Kona S2 (£150)
Kona S3 (£70)
Kona S4 (£157)
Kona S5 (£84)
Total £444 if needs 4 or £528 if needs 5 years
That is £100 saved every year, compared to ICE car servicing average to be £200 a year, which to my experience is on the very cheap side. Over 10 years likely life of the vehicle, that's £1000 saved just on servicing, ignoring cost to do timing belt, gearbox oil, etc.

£330 a year seems expensive for service plan........ even for a diesel.
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That 11K is paid by the first owner. Thats a direct outlay. Over 3 years a car typically depreciates by half, so thats still an impressive hit. Also don't forget the cost of your charging point.
Now that doesn't matter too much for me as I tend to keep cars for a long time, usually 10 years, but for those on a typical 3 year ownership they aren't going to see a cost advantage.

£330 a year for a full service plan at a Mazda main dealer that charges £110 an hour, with all parts included. I don't think thats bad...
 
Byker28i said:
Well, thats got to be one of your more fancier claims.

Moving people all together at high speed - just need to lower the costs of trains for that... rerouting people, most sat navs/phone apps do that for you.
Realistically as EV cars take off and people cruise at slower speeds to maximise their savings/range, it'll cause congestion on major roads. The only current advantage to an EV is in towns/cities on short journeys for reducing pollution. If you're lucky the payback on the additional price will be offset from the suggested lower maintenance costs and cheap charging
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It's not a 'fancy claim' at all. Google it - the tech is well advanced.

It would be nothing like moving people on trains. Radar linked cars will have many of the advantages of trains (hands-off driving, greater economy due to low-drag etc) but with the convenience of being door-to-door transport which many people want and/or need. EVs are perfectly suited to this kind of vehicle linking because they don't emit toxic fumes from the back end and offer high, instant torque which will make it easier for the system to keep the vehicles locked together.

Regarding congestion routing: I realise currect SatNavs reroute when there is congestion, but it's hopeless for optimising road use. What I'm talking about is having vehicles networked so that a central system can route cars from A to B via different routes, not only to avoid congestion, but to balance the traffic load. For instance, there may be three routes to get from A to B that are within five minutes travel time, but route 1 can handle twice the traffic of the other two. The system would route 50% of the traffic down route 1 and balnce the rest between the others. This is congestion prevention rather than a reaction to congestion that's already happened. Obvioulsy, this could be installed in an vehicle, but it's EVs with their cutting edeg tech that will likley drive systems like this forward.
 
I was just updating my spreadsheet. I think this is pretty representative of general car ownership.

For an old Mercedes but high mileage annual: average £5,643.37 annually
% is fuel 38% < spent a lot fuelling this up, about 18k miles annually.
% is servicing and tax 15%
% is depreciation 22%
% is insurance 25% < expensive insurance!

For a newer car with lower than average mileage: £4,269.83 annually
% is fuel 20%
% is servicing and tax 21%
% is depreciation 43%
% is insurance 16%

For EV with average mileage : £2,853.28 annually
% is fuel 9%
% is servicing and tax 7%
% is depreciation 60% < based on higher PCP payments rather than real world sold examples
% is insurance 25%

There's 6 new tyres across the last two cars and the data isn't averaged out to full tyre life, also the middle one had £670 worth of extra maintenance work done on it over 1.5 years that is supposed to average out over 4-5 years. But you can get the idea that you can buy more expensive EV because there's massive savings elsewhere.

For example, if I were to drive 18k in any EV, like the old Merc, spending the same as old Merc: average £5,643.37 annually
fuel £550
servicing and tax £400
depreciation £3700 -> £300 per month car!
insurance £1000 (£700 for Skoda and £700 for Leaf, I live in expensive post code)
Whereas I am no where near able to afford a £300pm car if I have to pay for fossil fuel at the same time. But electric propulsion allows people to jump from 10 year old car to a brand new one. You just have to do the sums.
 
cambsno said:
Reading the last few pages, I am staggered how people even think we can stop sales of 'normal' cars in 12 years time!
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Conventional cars won't disappear from the roads the day manufacturers stop selling them! The average car in the UK is seven years old, so if things stay as they are, that's 19 years until the 'average car user' will have to buy an EV. One of my cars is 25 years old, so based on my experience they won't have to buy an EV until 2055! That's plenty of time to design and install new infrastructure, triple battery capacity and expand the UK's electric generation capacity.
 
wuyanxu said:
I was just updating my spreadsheet. I think this is pretty representative of general car ownership.

For an old Mercedes but high mileage annual: average £5,643.37 annually
% is fuel 38% < spent a lot fuelling this up, about 18k miles annually.
% is servicing and tax 15%
% is depreciation 22%
% is insurance 25% < expensive insurance!

For a newer car with lower than average mileage: £4,269.83 annually
% is fuel 20%
% is servicing and tax 21%
% is depreciation 43%
% is insurance 16%

For EV with average mileage : £2,853.28 annually
% is fuel 9%
% is servicing and tax 7%
% is depreciation 60% < based on higher PCP payments rather than real world sold examples
% is insurance 25%

There's 6 new tyres across the last two cars and the data isn't averaged out to full tyre life, also the middle one had £670 worth of extra maintenance work done on it over 1.5 years that is supposed to average out over 4-5 years. But you can get the idea that you can buy more expensive EV because there's massive savings elsewhere.

For example, if I were to drive 18k in any EV, like the old Merc, spending the same as old Merc: average £5,643.37 annually
fuel £550
servicing and tax £400
depreciation £3700 -> £300 per month car!
insurance £1000 (£700 for Skoda and £700 for Leaf, I live in expensive post code)
Whereas I am no where near able to afford a £300pm car if I have to pay for fossil fuel at the same time. But electric propulsion allows people to jump from 10 year old car to a brand new one. You just have to do the sums.
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What's your 'average mileage' for this calculation? 12,000?
 
wuyanxu said:
I was just updating my spreadsheet. I think this is pretty representative of general car ownership.

For an old Mercedes but high mileage annual: average £5,643.37 annually
% is fuel 38% < spent a lot fuelling this up, about 18k miles annually.
% is servicing and tax 15%
% is depreciation 22%
% is insurance 25% < expensive insurance!

For a newer car with lower than average mileage: £4,269.83 annually
% is fuel 20%
% is servicing and tax 21%
% is depreciation 43%
% is insurance 16%

For EV with average mileage : £2,853.28 annually
% is fuel 9%
% is servicing and tax 7%
% is depreciation 60% < based on higher PCP payments rather than real world sold examples
% is insurance 25%

There's 6 new tyres across the last two cars and the data isn't averaged out to full tyre life, also the middle one had £670 worth of extra maintenance work done on it over 1.5 years that is supposed to average out over 4-5 years. But you can get the idea that you can buy more expensive EV because there's massive savings elsewhere.

For example, if I were to drive 18k in any EV, like the old Merc, spending the same as old Merc: average £5,643.37 annually
fuel £550
servicing and tax £400
depreciation £3700 -> £300 per month car!
insurance £1000 (£700 for Skoda and £700 for Leaf, I live in expensive post code)
Whereas I am no where near able to afford a £300pm car if I have to pay for fossil fuel at the same time. But electric propulsion allows people to jump from 10 year old car to a brand new one. You just have to do the sums.
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Are you factoring leasing on ice figures?Nobody I know is buying new cars now, favouring leasing which will/can include a lot of running costs.

I'm in a fortunate situation where my company lease picks up all wear and tear and servicing. Bar the p11d contribution it's just add fuel.
 
FujiLove said:
What's your 'average mileage' for this calculation? 12,000?
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Average I consider to be 10k. I know the national average now is probably 12k.

Old Merc was doing 18k, I had it from 8 years old to 11 years and a bit. Bought for £5500 IIRC sold for £1000 as trade-in (Nissan scheme also added £1000 deposit contribution for my trade-in of old diesel)
Skoda Octavia is averaging 8k, I bought it when it was almost 4 years old. 1.5 years of ownership so far. Bought for £8800, estimated value now is £6500.
Nissan Leaf EV did 10k, I bought it end of October 2017 when it was just under 3 years old, so exactly 1 year now. Bought for trade-in of old Merc + £114 per month PCP, total I'll pay for Leaf would be £9100.

neil_g said:
Are you factoring leasing on ice figures?Nobody I know is buying new cars now, favouring leasing which will/can include a lot of running costs.

I'm in a fortunate situation where my company lease picks up all wear and tear and servicing. Bar the p11d contribution it's just add fuel.
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See above, I usually buy second hand cars. So depreciation is either price difference between purchase and sale, or estimated price based on Autotrader adverts.



Back in early 2017, late 2016, before I bought Skoda, BMW was doing 0% finance lease on i3 for £279, or £299 for i3 REx. I was really tempted. But the strange and expensive tyres was off putting and wife vetoed it due to rear space.

Car ownership sums should be across EVERYTHING. You can't only look at lease/PCP per month price of a car and ignore the savings elsewhere.
 
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I'm not sure you can compare old cars with new, old gas guzzlers with new EV's etc Nor can you compare a combined mileage of 26K miles (old merc and Octavia) against 10K miles for leaf
Or am I missing something?

The easiest example is would a new car buyer buy an EV car over the ICE equivalent. At the moment the figures don't stack up unless you buy the car and keep it for years when eventually the savings in running costs.

Now if we want to start comparing second hand cars over three years old then the figures start becoming a little more attractive because you've lost that initial huge depreciation, but you've still got a huge cost difference
So a leaf thats 3 years old will cost around £11.5k, the equivalent diesel Focus will cost around £6.5K which is £5k or 37,500 miles of diesel at 45mpg, so with 12k miles a year I get 3 years free motoring compared to the cost of EV. Only then do I start saving money. If I keep the car that long

But if I want to go on holiday, need to travel long distance, I've got to hire a car to do that.

So you mentioned retention values. If I buy a 2015 diesel focus for £6.5K, a 2012 version is selling for £4.5K, a £2k depreciation. If I buy a 2012 leaf they are around 7-7.5K, a £4k loss

EV's work for some people, but at the moment I just can't make the sums work, because of the extra cost.
 
wuyanxu said:
Win-win for everyone?

There is a supply shortage of new EV's, I'm not sure why you'd feel bad for the large amount of first owners lining up to buy likes of Kona, waiting 40+ weeks. So unless they are all mugs, it just tells us EV doesn't have to resort to heavy discount to sell.
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The numbers they sell in are low, if they discounted them heavily, as you put it, they would be making a loss.
Not all cars are discounted, I bought my car 18 months after it was launched, I only got a small discount as it was a showroom model that they had for a couple of months. Had I ordered a new car I would have had to pay full price. I was fortunate the car was fully loaded in the colour I wanted, it had a couple of options above the spec I wanted.
With a Kia there is a long boat journey to the UK then the car has to have some features fitted in a compound at the port.
 
Byker28i said:
the equivalent diesel Focus will cost around £6.5K
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That figure looks wrong to me. A three year old equivalent Ford Focus, would be a 2015 1.5 Diesel, with an auto box. Those cars with 36,000 miles on the clock are selling for around £10,000 today.
 
Byker28i said:
I'm not sure you can compare old cars with new, old gas guzzlers with new EV's etc Nor can you compare a combined mileage of 26K miles (old merc and Octavia) against 10K miles for leaf
Or am I missing something?

The easiest example is would a new car buyer buy an EV car over the ICE equivalent. At the moment the figures don't stack up unless you buy the car and keep it for years when eventually the savings in running costs.

Now if we want to start comparing second hand cars over three years old then the figures start becoming a little more attractive because you've lost that initial huge depreciation, but you've still got a huge cost difference
So a leaf thats 3 years old will cost around £11.5k, the equivalent diesel Focus will cost around £6.5K which is £5k or 37,500 miles of diesel at 45mpg, so with 12k miles a year I get 3 years free motoring compared to the cost of EV. Only then do I start saving money. If I keep the car that long

But if I want to go on holiday, need to travel long distance, I've got to hire a car to do that.

So you mentioned retention values. If I buy a 2015 diesel focus for £6.5K, a 2012 version is selling for £4.5K, a £2k depreciation. If I buy a 2012 leaf they are around 7-7.5K, a £4k loss

EV's work for some people, but at the moment I just can't make the sums work, because of the extra cost.
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Not exactly gas guzzler with 45mpg, 12p/mile. Comparing a 45mpg car doing 18k a year against two cars, one doing 8k a year 55mpg the other doing 10k a year EV. Both ends of comparison doing 18k miles a year.

Or you can compare a '63 reg 55mpg ICE doing 8k against a newer '64 reg EV doing 10k. The EV is more than £1000 cheaper to run.

Then, I compared a quite reliable 11 year old 45mpg car against a brand new Range Extended EV, both doing 18k miles a year, figures extrapolated from my 10k EV ownership. Showing switch to driving on electricity makes brand new car affordable, even if it is on £300 per month lease for a few years (I can't remember if it's a 2 or 3 years deal)

3 year old Leaf price have been increasing over the last year, as more and more people realise it is the perfect family local runabout. Back in 2017, 3 year old 2014 Leaf can be had for around £10k; now 2015 Leaf's are selling around 11k. I wonder if any of the Focus/Golf prices have been increasing?
 
You're making this comparison too personal to you and over complicating it in the process and also seem to still not take into account the additional initial outlay of the EV.

For everyone else your situation is not relevant to theirs. Better to do comparisons on publicly known data that everyone can relate to not your vastly differing cars over the last few years.
With any discussion like this I feel its best to use personal experience to add to the discussion/your point, not base your whole point on it as its difficult for others to backup what you are saying.

You can make stats say anything really, I remember an old top gear episode where they proved a BMW M3 had better fuel economy than a small engined Skoda (may not have been a Skoda but something similar).
They had the BMW follow the other car round a track at the other cars maximum speed and the BMW just cruising. In that instance the BMW was more economical :)
 
wuyanxu said:
3 year old Leaf price have been increasing over the last year, as more and more people realise it is the perfect family local runabout. Back in 2017, 3 year old 2014 Leaf can be had for around £10k; now 2015 Leaf's are selling around 11k. I wonder if any of the Focus/Golf prices have been increasing?
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When I started to seriously consider getting my current car, I got a valuation from WBAC for the car I had at the time. Over the course of 18 months, their valuation fluctuated going up several hundred pounds at times. When I traded the car, I actually got just over £1k more than the last valuation they sent me and was still more than the original valuation they gave me 18 months earlier.
As far as values of a 2014 car against a 2015 car, new car prices go up every year, they very rarely remain static. Also manufacturers tend to make specification changes as they learn more of what owners want, if the latter specification is more favourable it will command a higher price.
I can't speak for a VW Golf, but in 2015 the Focus received a facelift and spec changes as a result, so there is a very good chance that a 2015 model will be worth more than what a 2014 model was worth at the same age. Plus there are probably a much higher multitude of models and options to choose from with the Focus to make it more appealing and some models commanding a much higher price than others.
 
PaulF said:
With any discussion like this I feel its best to use personal experience to add to the discussion/your point
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Exactly. My point is EV ownership is very affordable when purchase/lease price is factored in as overall ownership cost. Then I used real world data I collected to supplement my point. It may seem other way round because I raised the point after posting the data, but I've said the same many many pages ago, without real world data, only estimates.

nilagin said:
As far as values of a 2014 car against a 2015 car, new car prices go up every year, they very rarely remain static.
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Please explain this bit. Are you saying exactly same trim and spec cars 1 year apart on average will sell for different prices?

Facelift are different, it appears to make the same car more desirable with a new bumper. Exact same car, made 1 year apart, sold 1 year apart, the latter one will sell for over 10% higher is normal?
 
wuyanxu said:
Please explain this bit. Are you saying exactly same trim and spec cars 1 year apart on average will sell for different prices?

Facelift are different, it appears to make the same car more desirable with a new bumper. Exact same car, made 1 year apart, sold 1 year apart, the latter one will sell for over 10% higher is normal?
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I did explain it. I can't speak for other manufacturers but I would assume many do similar. Prices rise yearly, in the UK, Ford bring out the next year's model around October. This may mean a few simple things are deleted from a car such as secondary boot light, something tucked away that you wouldn't know was there and something made standard equipment that makes the car more attractive. As I said values don't always go down, they can rise by several hundred pounds or more as well during the course of a year due to demand. Add all those things up and it is easily possible for a 3yr old car to be worth £1k more this year than a 3yr old car was last year.
 
dod said:
well, this settles it then :p Back to diesel lads :naughty::LOL:

https://www.express.co.uk/life-styl...LqGoCcRuvQLC3eIp2omXyh_5tU6vPgVdO5J6lRhE1D4Ag
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Let's all trust a German motor association test that shows the diesels they are trying to sell meets real world driving tests, no cheating devices, honest! There's absolutely zero conflict of interest here :p

nilagin said:
they can rise by several hundred pounds or more as well during the course of a year due to demand.
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Yes, demand:
wuyanxu said:
3 year old Leaf price have been increasing over the last year, as more and more people realise it is the perfect family local runabout.
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wuyanxu said:
Yes, demand:
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Yes, demand that can fluctuate each month. If you allow say £500 for changes in standard spec. and price increases when new, that leaves £500 for variations in demand. The next month the price difference between the 2 cars at 3yrs old could be just £600, because the interest has waned.
 
nilagin said:
I posted that a couple of days ago, it amazingly got pretty much ignored.
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sorry, didn't notice, just dip in and out of this :)
 
Does this latest report come as any surprise? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46152853
Tens of thousands of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) bought with generous government grants may be burning as much fuel as combustion-engine cars.

Data compiled for the BBC suggests that such vehicles in corporate fleets averaged just 40 miles per gallon (mpg), when they could have done 130.

Many drivers may never have unwrapped their charging cables, The Miles Consultancy said.
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Mr Bump said:
nice to see how proud you are of you child lung polluter

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/apr/13/death-of-diesel-wonder-fuel-new-asbestos
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Actually yes, yes I am.

As I said it's replacing a much older vehicle which probably does worse things to lungs. And compared to all the trucks, coaches and busses I pass every day my contribution is a drop in the ocean. Go moan at haulage and public transport companies..

Becides there is no logical path to electric for me. I do too many miles with too much of a load. I rent and I have no access to charging points at any destination. (I'd love for hydrogen to be an option by the time I'm ready for a new vehicle).

But we all know by now that you love to pick out little snippets of information to twist to your own agenda.
 
neil_g said:
Actually yes, yes I am.

As I said it's replacing a much older vehicle which probably does worse things to lungs. And compared to all the trucks, coaches and busses I pass every day my contribution is a drop in the ocean. Go moan at haulage and public transport companies..

Becides there is no logical path to electric for me. I do too many miles with too much of a load. I rent and I have no access to charging points at any destination. (I'd love for hydrogen to be an option by the time I'm ready for a new vehicle).

But we all know by now that you love to pick out little snippets of information to twist to your own agenda.
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Forget it Neil, Mr Bump had a a very logical path to EV and chose a petrol car instead so I wouldn't pay too much attention to his little snipes, he just hates diesels apparently.
 
Although he seems more than happy to benefit from other people's use of them as well as deciding to keep his second home abroad rather than sell it and use the money to buy a much cleaner vehicle.
 
neil_g said:
going back to this, seeing as it got glossed over a bit..

Speaks volumes about the lack of charging infrastructure if nothing else.
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Well, no. There are ample destination chargers everywhere, most of the time not being used. I think it speaks volumes about people in general:
PHEV are mostly used to bypass road tax, congestion charge and gain cheaper BIK tax.

On the other hand, if the powertrain is predominantly electric with a lot more EV range, only have a small ICE for emergency extended range. I bet people will plug in a lot more often. This is exactly why I feel current crop of 30 miles PHEV are totally useless to advance of EV adoption. Fortunately, the plug-in grant has now been removed from this type of car.
 
wuyanxu said:
Well, no. There are ample destination chargers everywhere,
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Disagree. I can think of 2 places that have chargers (other than motorway services) both are 5 star hotels.

Certainly around here (Southampton/Basingstoke) Supermarkets, nope. Town center parking, nope. Retail parks, nope. All the useful places to put a charger basically.
 
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