Car buyers should have 'long, hard think' about diesel

[ancient_mariner]

Years ago, I guess it still exists, there is (was) a stretch of the A4 near slough that had the lights set at 30mph, ie if you went through on a green light you could do the
whole stretch at 30 anything more or less you "got caught" by a red one.

There was a time when that would have worked, but not any more. Despite modern cars having excellent performance compared with vehicles in the 80's, 90's and even early 2000's, most people now drive more slowly and are increasingly cautious. I can't put a metric on it, but around Oxfordshire I see more and more people waiting for cars to pass on country lanes, where at one time they would happily have driven past each other. Or last week we had a driver travelling at 38-51mph on the Oxford to Banbury road in the national speed limit section, and not just maintaining a constant speed, but slowing and accelerating each time a group of vehicles approached from the opposite direction. That road is wide and the view is excellent, since it used to be the main route to Birmingham before the M40 opened.

Perhaps it's modern car design that makes it harder to know where the edges are and detaches the driver more from what's happening around them. I suspect that when autonomous vehicles arrive, many will welcome them because they've forgotten how to drive proactively and will feel more comfortable no longer having to be in control.

Oh, and FWIW in 1990 there was a stretch of road from Brixton Hill to the start of Putney bridge that one could drive across more-or-less without stopping if you hit the first set of lights right. It did however require an average speed around 40+mph, so of course it could never actually be done, especially at 7am, on a motorcycle.

 

[Cobra]

Yep, many cities have that setup,

Fairy nuff, I rarely ( have the need to) drive in cities these days, so I wouldn't know.

Hell, my car advises me when to lift of the accelerator when approaching a junction if I have it in Eco Pro mode.

I hope you take note

most people now drive more slowly and are increasingly cautious.

I see that too. I'm driving early hours well that it about 5am onwards on "good roads" anywhere from 30 -70 and a large percentage are "doing" the speed limit minus 10mph.
Maybe the cost of fuel has something to do with it also, me? I have a company fuel card and the limit is most certainly a target

 

[wyx087]

More and more fantasy thinking. You have managed to produce a cost forecast for a car that is a) Not being produced until 2019 and b) Tesla have not released the UK price for yet.

The currently available UK Tesla's are in the £80k bracket and I think it's fair to assume that when anyone mentions Tesla without qualifying which model the assumption would be the currently available ones.
Even with you taking everything into account, you are comparing a £40k (guess) Tesla with a 10yr old Merc worth god only knows, but I'd guess considerably less than £10k, so £30k on fuel over 6 years, really, are you sure. Unless of course I have completely misunderstood your point, which I could have easily done considering how you seem to move around with your references depending on the point being made.

I think you forgot after 6 years, there is still some value in the car. Definitely doesn't need to be £30k over 6 years.

Financially an EV doesn't make sense new because it's depreciation is far greater in it's first year than an equivalently priced ice car. They seem to lose around 50% in their 1st year, against most ice cars losing around 30%. Ice cars tend to be at 50% after 3yrs. So how much is that EV worth after another 2 years a great deal less again I would imagine. So even though you think you have got a bargain buying a 2nd hand EV and save money on fuel, you will still have a bigger financial loss when the time comes to off load the car.

Stop comparing RRP against second hand price. Calculate based on how much you are likely to pay for an new EV, there are massive discounts + gov grants for new EV.

 

[PaulF]

I hope you take note

I have a company fuel card and the limit is most certainly a target

I always take note of it when I'm in Eco Pro mode, just very very rarely in Eco mode as I, like you, have a fully expense'd fuel card through work, I don't even pay for my personal miles

 

[PaulF]

I think you forgot after 6 years, there is still some value in the car. Definitely doesn't need to be £30k over 6 years.


Stop comparing RRP against second hand price. Calculate based on how much you are likely to pay for an new EV, there are massive discounts + gov grants for new EV.

Ok, I'll admit the 6 year old EV will have a value. A £40k EV (your price guess) after 6 years, assuming full main dealer service etc would be worth £5-£10k so £20k on fuel over 6 years still seems a lot unless you are doing extremely high mileage in which case an EV would not currently be suitable unless your getting the £80k Tesla with unlimited free supercharging thrown in, I believe the supercharging is now capped isn't it for new orders.

There are discounts and offers on all types of cars, I'm sure you are aware of that. The only consistent way to compare is with the actual RRP price minus the current Gov grant but you cannot apply that to any future purchase unless you know for certain what the Gov grant will be if it still exists at all.

Take the Tesla Model 3, you say it's going to be £40k (not a cheap car) in the UK. It may well be, it's the figure that's rumored but it's not fact. In the USA it's around $35k so it could be less than £40k in the UK. Then again with the recent value of Tesla fluctuating violently who knows what the price of the currently not in production car will be, left hand drive is scheduled for production in 2019.

 

[nilagin]

More and more fantasy thinking. You have managed to produce a cost forecast for a car that is a) Not being produced until 2019 and b) Tesla have not released the UK price for yet.

The currently available UK Tesla's are in the £80k bracket and I think it's fair to assume that when anyone mentions Tesla without qualifying which model the assumption would be the currently available ones.
Even with you taking everything into account, you are comparing a £40k (guess) Tesla with a 10yr old Merc worth god only knows, but I'd guess considerably less than £10k, so £30k on fuel over 6 years, really, are you sure. Unless of course I have completely misunderstood your point, which I could have easily done considering how you seem to move around with your references depending on the point being made.

It's called desperately clutching at straws.

 

[nilagin]

Perhaps it's modern car design that makes it harder to know where the edges are and detaches the driver more from what's happening around them. I suspect that when autonomous vehicles arrive, many will welcome them because they've forgotten how to drive proactively and will feel more comfortable no longer having to be in control.

I am not so sure it is anything to do with not being able to see where car edges are. I can't even see my bonnet yet I know where the edges are. Perhaps some people lose spacial awareness, some never learn it especially if they have never driven larger vehicles and more so that automated systems can do the job for them.


As for traffic lights, for several years The lights in our town centre had sensors on them, if they didn't register any cars approaching or waiting, then the lights would remain green for the roads with cars. If each road had cars then the lights would go through the normal cycle. The system worked great, but for an unknown reason they no longer use the feature.

 

[nilagin]

I think you forgot after 6 years, there is still some value in the car. Definitely doesn't need to be £30k over 6 years.


Stop comparing RRP against second hand price. Calculate based on how much you are likely to pay for an new EV, there are massive discounts + gov grants for new EV.

RRP is just the starting point on all cars.
Discounts are available on all cars not just Ev's.
I bet your one of these people that whinge about car fuel consumption figures from laboratory tests not being representative, yet unless cars can follow the exact same test under the same conditions, you can't have a fair comparison. As the final discount each customer can achieve is an unknown quantity, use of the RRP is the only way of having a comparison.

 

[Cobra]

The system worked great, but for an unknown reason they no longer use the feature.

Quite a few well the larger / major junction roundabouts have that system here, it's OK when its working ok..
If the get un-phased, it goes to hell.
If they break down totally, the traffic moves much better

some people lose spacial awareness, some never learn it

My pet hate is people that can't judge Speed and distance, either that or they are so arrogant they think Oh look a car, I'll wait until it gets
a bit closer and then pull out...

 

[nilagin]

If they break down totally, the traffic moves much better

Isn't it amazing how that always seems to be the case.

 

[Cobra]

Isn't it amazing how that always seems to be the case.

Technology eh?

 

[nilagin]

Banning manual cars will occur in the hotspots first. Such as parts of cities.

What about cyclists and pedestrians, you'll need to ban them in your idyllic cities too or you're still going to need traffic lights for them.

 

[Nod]

Good idea - for the highway! Stick a 3m high, razor wire topped fence beside the streets with barriers at pedestrian crossings.

Many years ago, the lights on most of the cross city routes here were set so that 30mph would see you straight through but then they stuck in more pelican crossings which threw the synchronisation way out.

 

[ianp5a]

What about cyclists and pedestrians, you'll need to ban them in your idyllic cities too or you're still going to need traffic lights for them.

Yes. But that is already the case, and has been so in parts of cities and highways for many years.

There will also be low speed areas, where they can all mix. This also exists in some places in the UK. With the cars detecting and avoiding people. Bikes also register in the system, and have guidance aids in your phone app. Basically you ride right through the middle and your path is cleared. Don't register, and same as today, you find your own route. And the cars treat you as any other moving obstacle.

 

[nilagin]

Yes. But that is already the case, and has been so in parts of cities and highways for many years.

There will also be low speed areas, where they can all mix. This also exists in some places in the UK. With the cars detecting and avoiding people. Bikes also register in the system, and have guidance aids. Basically you ride right through the middle and your path is cleared.

Unless it is a purpose built underpass or such like in a city or a motorway, I have certainly never encountered pedestrians or cyclists being banned.
What possible guidance assistance can you apply to a bicycle. It is a manual means of transport with a human being able to steer it and go anywhere. No automated system in any number of cars will be able to monitor and react to every human element. Cars already have pedestrian detection and can respond and start braking if a pedestrian or cyclist looks like it will move in it's path but it can't react to those that show no signs of getting in a cars path until contact is imminent. Sensors can respond within hundreds or even thousands of a second, brakes and steering can't. Automated cars would need to be travelling at around 5mph to be any safer than a car with a human driver. Average speed in London is about 8mph, so going automated won't really achieve much.

 

[ianp5a]

Unless it is a purpose built underpass or such like in a city or a motorway, I have certainly never encountered pedestrians or cyclists being banned.
What possible guidance assistance can you apply to a bicycle. It is a manual means of transport with a human being able to steer it and go anywhere. No automated system in any number of cars will be able to monitor and react to every human element. Cars already have pedestrian detection and can respond and start braking if a pedestrian or cyclist looks like it will move in it's path but it can't react to those that show no signs of getting in a cars path until contact is imminent. Sensors can respond within hundreds or even thousands of a second, brakes and steering can't. Automated cars would need to be travelling at around 5mph to be any safer than a car with a human driver. Average speed in London is about 8mph, so going automated won't really achieve much.

I can't help it if you've never encountered stuff. Although J walking rules, ring roads and separated bike lanes are everywhere. And don't worry about the rest of it. You'll possibly understand it when you see it.

 

[nilagin]

I can't help it if you've never encountered stuff. Although J walking rules, ring roads and separated bike lanes are everywhere. And don't worry about the rest of it. You'll possibly understand it when you see it.

What have cycling lanes got to do with anything? At some point cyclists will still need or want to cross a road. Ring roads don't go everywhere the clue is in the name. At some point they will join other roads, roads with cyclists and pedestrians on that automated cars won't be able to react to in time for the reasons I have already given. As a result the automated cars would need to travel slower, meaning the automated cars leaving the ring road will have to travel slower and this will cause cars on the ring road to have to travel slower.
The fact that you can't understand that or envisage it, pretty much backs up your inexperience as a motorist.

 

[ianp5a]

What have cycling lanes got to do with anything? At some point cyclists will still need or want to cross a road. Ring roads don't go everywhere the clue is in the name. At some point they will join other roads, roads with cyclists and pedestrians on that automated cars won't be able to react to in time for the reasons I have already given. As a result the automated cars would need to travel slower, meaning the automated cars leaving the ring road will have to travel slower and this will cause cars on the ring road to have to travel slower.
The fact that you can't understand that or envisage it, pretty much backs up your inexperience as a motorist.

Dedicated cycle lanes will take over roads previously used by cars. With their own pedestrian free cycle routes and flyovers. Pedestrian and low speed areas will expand into other areas freed up from parking and traffic.
Don't imagine the autonomous cars will have a driver looking out the front windscreen, getting all impatient. Some will be empty, going to pick up. Some will be freight. And some will contain kids only. Mucking around in the back. All in all cities will be a much nicer environment for all concerned. And cheaper to support in the long run.

 

[PaulF]

What have cycling lanes got to do with anything? At some point cyclists will still need or want to cross a road. Ring roads don't go everywhere the clue is in the name. At some point they will join other roads, roads with cyclists and pedestrians on that automated cars won't be able to react to in time for the reasons I have already given. As a result the automated cars would need to travel slower, meaning the automated cars leaving the ring road will have to travel slower and this will cause cars on the ring road to have to travel slower.
The fact that you can't understand that or envisage it, pretty much backs up your inexperience as a motorist.

Give up, you can't have a sensible discussion with someone who is using their own imagination as a source.
Whatever you say they will just make something else up [emoji33]

 

[PaulF]

I can't help it if you've never encountered stuff. Although J walking rules, ring roads and separated bike lanes are everywhere. And don't worry about the rest of it. You'll possibly understand it when you see it.

Yet more fantasy. You do realise you are doing the EV argument no favours when you step into dreamland.

This thread has been interesting and educational at times but your made up scenarios are getting tiresome.

 

[ianp5a]

Yet more fantasy. You do realise you are doing the EV argument no favours when you step into dreamland.

This thread has been interesting and educational at times but your made up scenarios are getting tiresome.

If you can't imagine a thing that doesn't exist right now, right in front of you, then don't expect everyone else to be so short sighted. Lots of us are already working on developing the future. And it won't be identical to the present. The requirements are clear.
It sounds to me like you hate change.

 

[Cobra]

Dedicated cycle lanes will take over roads previously used by cars. With their own pedestrian free cycle routes and flyovers

Here we have dedicated cycle ways, & foot ways, some yards from but running parallel to, the main roads, no flyovers but under passes avoiding road junctions & roundabouts.
The majority of cyclists would rather chance their arm ( legs head etc) with the main traffic, the speed limits on these roads are largely 70 mph, some are 60 mph, than use these "red ways"
Only the other day I saw a cyclist riding down lane 2 of a dual carriageway, with a 70 mph speed limit ...This is an A road, trunk route, used by heavy traffic!
( Turning right? maybe he was, but that first opportunity was about a mile away.)
I'm guessing he was a BMW driver in training, or a banned one

 

[nilagin]

Dedicated cycle lanes will take over roads previously used by cars. With their own pedestrian free cycle routes and flyovers. Pedestrian and low speed areas will expand into other areas freed up from parking and traffic.
Don't imagine the autonomous cars will have a driver looking out the front windscreen, getting all impatient. Some will be empty, going to pick up. Some will be freight. And some will contain kids only. Mucking around in the back. All in all cities will be a much nicer environment for all concerned. And cheaper to support in the long run.

You are assuming automated cars will be allowed without a driver to take over should any systems fail or the car fails to act accordingly. It is going to be a very brave and foolhardy person willing to sign that one off.

I am intrigued to know where all these car and pedestrian free city roads are going to come from, what is going to happen to all the shops, businesses and homes, that people will require access to. Are they going to be banned as well?

 

[PaulF]

If you can't imagine a thing that doesn't exist right now, right in front of you, then don't expect everyone else to be so short sighted. Lots of us are already working on developing the future. And it won't be identical to the present. The requirements are clear.
It sounds to me like you hate change.

Now, is that true, you working to develop the future, or is that just in your head again.

By all means use your imagination to make a picture of the future but don't assume it's always going to correct and base a factual discussion on it, it just makes you look like you cannot debate a subject very well.

I have said throughout this thread I have nothing against EV, it's not suitable in an affordable manner for me yet. It may be in the future but neither you nor I know if/when that point will be. The difference between us is I can accept that where as you seem to think your vision of the future is fact.

 

[ianp5a]

Now, is that true, you working to develop the future, or is that just in your head again.

By all means use your imagination to make a picture of the future but don't assume it's always going to correct and base a factual discussion on it, it just makes you look like you cannot debate a subject very well.

I have said throughout this thread I have nothing against EV, it's not suitable in an affordable manner for me yet. It may be in the future but neither you nor I know if/when that point will be. The difference between us is I can accept that where as you seem to think your vision of the future is fact.

I have never said I know when we will get these solutions.
It's a difficult thing to guess. Especially if you are up against resistance to change.

We already know the requirements for the future. They tell us so much. With that you can predict where the developments will end up. The details will, naturally vary.

And I was merely responding someone's questions. And that it's not all doom and gloom.

 

[nilagin]

If you can't imagine a thing that doesn't exist right now, right in front of you, then don't expect everyone else to be so short sighted. Lots of us are already working on developing the future. And it won't be identical to the present. The requirements are clear.
It sounds to me like you hate change.

If you are working on developing the future, we have no chance. Your ideas are full of holes blatantly obvious to all of us and you are struggling to come up with answers.
What you envisage will only work on a fresh purpose designed and built city. Most of it won't work in an established city without an extortionate amount of money.
You have done nothing more than come up with a few ideas with no real knowledge of real consequences.

There are two dual carriageway near me, A127 (A12) and A13, both run more or less parallel with each other although some miles apart and lead into London. Both roads suffer from congestion in various places during rush hour.
Some bright spark, like yourself, actually has suggested they should make one road for travelling into Lonndon and the other for travelling out. Sounds great. No thought for the people who now have to travel a greater distance, extra traffic and emissions on rural roads in between. Best of all is the congestion changes direction and location depending on whether it is morning or afternoon rush hour, so the congestion will still exist, in fact it would be worse as the amount on each road would be increased.

Clueless and worse still gets paid for it.

 

[ianp5a]

If you are working on developing the future, we have no chance. Your ideas are full of holes blatantly obvious to all of us and you are struggling to come up with answers.
What you envisage will only work on a fresh purpose designed and built city. Most of it won't work in an established city without an extortionate amount of money.
You have done nothing more than come up with a few ideas with no real knowledge of real consequences.

There are two dual carriageway near me, A127 (A12) and A13, both run more or less parallel with each other although some miles apart and lead into London. Both roads suffer from congestion in various places during rush hour.
Some bright spark, like yourself, actually has suggested they should make one road for travelling into Lonndon and the other for travelling out. Sounds great. No thought for the people who now have to travel a greater distance, extra traffic and emissions on rural roads in between. Best of all is the congestion changes direction and location depending on whether it is morning or afternoon rush hour, so the congestion will still exist, in fact it would be worse as the amount on each road would be increased.

Clueless and worse still gets paid for it.

It's pointless answering your questions, then get sneered at for answering, and then get compared with someone who made a mistake. It's best you don't judge people who you don't know.

 

[nilagin]

It's pointless answering your questions, then get sneered at for answering, and then get compared with someone who made a mistake. It's best you don't judge people who you don't know.

That's just it though, you haven't answered the questions, not with realistic answers anyway. So it's best I don't judge people I don't know, but apparently it's ok for you to do it. Making up the rules to suit yourself again.

 

[viv1969]

I have never said I know when we will get these solutions.
It's a difficult thing to guess. Especially if you are up against resistance to change.

We already know the requirements for the future. They tell us so much. With that you can predict where the developments will end up. The details will, naturally vary.

And I was merely responding someone's questions. And that it's not all doom and gloom.

The truth is you don't know when, and you don't know if, yet you speak as if these things are a given.
At this point you're just hypothesising.
...edited for apalling typos.

 

[ianp5a]

The trith is yiudonr know when, and you dontd know if, yet you speak as if these things are a given.
At this point you're just hypothesising.

Well I'm sad for you.

 

[viv1969]

Well I'm sad for you.

Why, because I live in the real world?

 

[nilagin]

Why, because I live in the real world?

Well it obviously Isn't going to be as good as the one that exists in his head.

 

[ancient_mariner]

I am not so sure it is anything to do with not being able to see where car edges are. I can't even see my bonnet yet I know where the edges are.

I noticed a change in car design around 2006, when I first drove a Focus in Canada, and found it much more difficult to estimate where the edges of the car were than any previous vehicles I'd owned (was driving a Peugeot 406 at the time). Since then I've driven a number of cars of varying sizes, and found some designs made it harder to get a feel for the outside of the car than others, and that more vehicles were like that. It's not the size of the car, and I've owned and driven some quite large vehicles.

 

[ancient_mariner]

Worth remembering that Ian lives in Germany, and it's entirely possibly that changes to city traffic regs and planning that are unthinkable here might seem much less unreasonable there.

 

[LongLensPhotography]

There was a time when that would have worked, but not any more. Despite modern cars having excellent performance compared with vehicles in the 80's, 90's and even early 2000's, most people now drive more slowly and are increasingly cautious. I can't put a metric on it, but around Oxfordshire I see more and more people waiting for cars to pass on country lanes, where at one time they would happily have driven past each other. Or last week we had a driver travelling at 38-51mph on the Oxford to Banbury road in the national speed limit section, and not just maintaining a constant speed, but slowing and accelerating each time a group of vehicles approached from the opposite direction. That road is wide and the view is excellent, since it used to be the main route to Birmingham before the M40 opened.

Perhaps it's modern car design that makes it harder to know where the edges are and detaches the driver more from what's happening around them. I suspect that when autonomous vehicles arrive, many will welcome them because they've forgotten how to drive proactively and will feel more comfortable no longer having to be in control.

Oh, and FWIW in 1990 there was a stretch of road from Brixton Hill to the start of Putney bridge that one could drive across more-or-less without stopping if you hit the first set of lights right. It did however require an average speed around 40+mph, so of course it could never actually be done, especially at 7am, on a motorcycle.

Driving standards are way down. People have no idea how to safely and reasonably take a corner. They brake mid corner, take a totally wrong line, almost go off the road and eventually onto oncoming traffic. I see it all the time. It is horrendous. Slow and bloody dangerous. New driver training is very poorly executed and tested. Meanwhile old folks are so into being afraid of everything it is literally their new hobby. They are almost too afraid to be even afraid and they love it.

 

[LongLensPhotography]

I noticed a change in car design around 2006, when I first drove a Focus in Canada, and found it much more difficult to estimate where the edges of the car were than any previous vehicles I'd owned (was driving a Peugeot 406 at the time). Since then I've driven a number of cars of varying sizes, and found some designs made it harder to get a feel for the outside of the car than others, and that more vehicles were like that. It's not the size of the car, and I've owned and driven some quite large vehicles.

It depends on car make and model. I've driven many many VW group cars; main driver is 2009 Passat estate and I have perfect awareness of the front and side edges. I never had any problems in Ford and Hyndai SUVs either. 5-series BMW and Jag XF are also pretty good in that respect and they are huge. It is all about design, and correct seating position.

However a quick in-and-out feel test in a 2009 Mondeo and a brand new Nissan X-trail just felt like you have stupid tank bunker windows, the bonnet is sloping down then up then back down and you just have no idea what is going on around. I didn't drive either, but wouldn't even want to. Just don't buy stupid cars. Simple.

If you have no idea then even Honda Jazz proves difficult to navigate the road with. And yes, I've seen one example doing a perfect NSL on local roads here. So they are not limited to 40mph. Imagine my shock!!!

 

[neil_g]

That doesn't get round the fact that cities have air pollution problems, and that it is a goal to reduce it.
Likewise, it is a goal to reduce or remove the use of certain minerals in batteries. And a massive amount of money is going into researching new electricity storage technologies.

So again, it's "someone else's" problem then. A bit like the ever decreasing rainforest I guess..


Anyway more problems for Tesla..

https://markets.businessinsider.com...icant-fit-and-finish-issues-2018-8-1027480762

 

[ianp5a]

So again, it's "someone else's" problem then. A bit like the ever decreasing rainforest I guess..

It's everyones problems I suppose. Although I don't really get your point.

Anyway more problems for Tesla..
https://markets.businessinsider.com...icant-fit-and-finish-issues-2018-8-1027480762

The model 3 sounds more like software people are using, that remains in 'beta' for years.

 

[PaulF]

So again, it's "someone else's" problem then. A bit like the ever decreasing rainforest I guess..


Anyway more problems for Tesla..

https://markets.businessinsider.com...icant-fit-and-finish-issues-2018-8-1027480762

Interesting read, it appears that the Model 3, despite having fewer components, may be more expensive to service/fix due to inaccessible construction and modular design resulting in the owner being tied to Tesla for the life of the car.
Tesla do have a reputation for being difficult to work with if you are an independent garage or have bought the car from a non Tesla approved garage. Been a few stories where the new owner can't get software updates etc.

I think they'll solve the manufacturing issues, bodywork gaps etc, given time but I certainly would not want one of the early Model 3's, give it a year or two before buying one and about five before getting a used one at least.

 

[nilagin]

Anyway more problems for Tesla..

https://markets.businessinsider.com...icant-fit-and-finish-issues-2018-8-1027480762

From what I have read, all Tesla's suffer from very poor build quality. Obviously every car manufacturer has issues somewhere along the line with their cars, but Tesla are continuously struggling with the basics. Perhaps all those free firmware updates will fix them.