Aurora this Saturday 28/02/15

Need a longer range forecast - 10-20 days would be good!!!
 
Thanks Andy. I'm in the right place just now - on the coast due west of Inverness, but unfortunately the forecast is not good for Saturday.

The average time between flares/CMEs on the sun and their arrival here is about 3-4 days so unfortunately not a lot of chance of a longer range forecast - pity, it would be useful.

Dave
 
I'm fully aware that the phenomena are hard (if not impossible!) to predict on a long range basis but I'd still like it to be possible. I'm on Andy's Iceland trip in about 10 days and we're there for 10 or so days, hence my fairly specific 10-20 day forecast wish!!! ;)
 
I'm a bit pessimistic for Orkney. 100% cloud cover predicted all weekend :-(. There will also be a really bright moon out with more that 70% brightness and which will be out till the early hours (3 or 4 am i think if i remember well).
On another hand recent prolonged negative Bz have been in favour of some nice displays, so finger crossed!
 
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Ah, I understand. God luck with the weather and aurora in Iceland.

Dave
 
Big Andy said:
Have faith brother Nod have faith.
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No faith just loads of hope! A friend has just come back from the Hurtigruten (?sp?) ferry cruise up Norway and saw them on his last night. Any idea which of the Norse gods requires a virgin sacrifice to ensure their appearance? (Oh, and where to find a suitable virgin!!!)
 
Tringa said:
Thanks Andy. I'm in the right place just now - on the coast due west of Inverness, but unfortunately the forecast is not good for Saturday.
The average time between flares/CMEs on the sun and their arrival here is about 3-4 days so unfortunately not a lot of chance of a longer range forecast - pity, it would be useful.
Dave
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CME can take 3-4 days but it isn't rare that they reach earth in a couple of day only.


Nod said:
I'm fully aware that the phenomena are hard (if not impossible!) to predict on a long range basis but I'd still like it to be possible. I'm on Andy's Iceland trip in about 10 days and we're there for 10 or so days, hence my fairly specific 10-20 day forecast wish!!! ;)
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Although a 10-20 day forecast will never be possible; in Iceland you have all reason to be optimistic! You do not need CME to sparkle aurora at high latitudes. Good luck to you, i hope you enjoy your trip.
 
Nod said:
No faith just loads of hope! A friend has just come back from the Hurtigruten (?sp?) ferry cruise up Norway and saw them on his last night. Any idea which of the Norse gods requires a virgin sacrifice to ensure their appearance? (Oh, and where to find a suitable virgin!!!)
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Following inuit legend, the northern light are :
"the spirits of those who have died a voluntary or violent death, and the Raven, have been over this pathway. The spirits who live there light torches to guide the feet of new arrivals. This is the light of the aurora.They can be seen there feasting and playing football with a walrus skull."

With all the atrocious war in the world at the moment you might be in for a treat...

PS: quotes from http://www.ewebtribe.com/NACulture/articles/aurora.html
 
Didn't know that the lights sometimes had a "whistling, crackling" soundtrack as an accompaniment. Could be interesting! Rather glad that no virgin sacrifice is needed since IMO they're overrated!
 
Looking again, I see the same as John - forecast for 15-17 Feb. Tried refreshing and even approaching via a search. Weird! (As are the aurora!)
 
Date says 15th-17th but table gives times & expected kp for 27/28/1st
 
I think the alert originated from there:
"NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2015
Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01
00-03UT 1 3 5 (G1)
03-06UT 0 3 4
06-09UT 1 2 3
09-12UT 1 2 3
12-15UT 1 3 3
15-18UT 1 4 4
18-21UT 2 5 (G1) 4
21-00UT 2 5 (G1) 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 28 Feb and 01 Mar
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream."
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
 
Hopefully we'll have an expert pointing us in the right direction! (Actually, even I know which direction to look in...)
 
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Nod said:
Hopefully we'll have an expert pointing us in the right direction! (Actually, even I know which direction to look in...)
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Actually northern light are not always to the north. At high latitude it can be all over north, east, west, south and above! Excactly a year ago on the 27th february 2014 the northern light were filling the whole sky even in scotland.
Shoudn't need much pointing anyway, they speak for themselves...

I wonder how the northern light are visible from a boat? I wrongly thought once that i will be able to see it on the ferry to lerwick but that was forgotting that the top deck was totally flooded with lights...
 
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From what I could gather, the captain doused all the external lights (other than the obligatory navigation lights) when the AB showed.
 
Nod said:
No faith just loads of hope! A friend has just come back from the Hurtigruten (?sp?) ferry cruise up Norway and saw them on his last night. Any idea which of the Norse gods requires a virgin sacrifice to ensure their appearance? (Oh, and where to find a suitable virgin!!!)
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With today's generation? Probably anyone under the age of ten.

Should be a good trip for you though. This time last year there was a great display, but didn't see much after sadly.
 
Strong Solar storm happening right now covering the whole of the UK, usual cloudy weather and fog here.
 
Yes it is a massive storm right now! KP8 and strongly negative Bz. The strongest storm of the whole solar cycle! Might be visible from pretty far south if it doesn't die off!

http://www.solarham.net/
 
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