An Independent Scotland?

[StewartR]

... and we might even get Amazon to pay their taxes!

No, you lost me there!

 

[border_all]

Who do you think pays for it now Allan?

To counter some of the negatives, Scotland is a major exporter of power, electricity flows south to England and Europe. We generate far more than we can use ourselves and there's a ready market for our surplus, wind and water power being eco friendly renewables.
Tourism and Whisky both generate a lot of income. Oil and gas are not going to run out any time soon and we might even get Amazon to pay their taxes!

Hi Steep

I was not saying that you don't contribute now it just seems that when I visit Scotland you can have a long distance between homes and towns and the infrastructure does require maintenance and renewal

Regards exports of energy we must all remember that a very good idea for any country would be self sufficiency this would in my book remain an aim for the rest of the union and while I accept that a good market exists now it does not follow that will always be the case

The NE England has plenty of opportunity for wind and wave power and according to the southerners we are just an open wasteland for shale gas we also have nuclear at Hartlepool and like you water to spare

I love touring Scotland I still wonder if border points did get introduced if that would lead to a small reduction in visitors

I would again mention it is not in general a point of could Scotland go alone I certainly concede it could but I do question should it

You have been in the union for a long time but look at the last say 30 years and the technology changes that have taken place could anyone predict what the next 30 years will bring

Even what we are doing here today chatting about the pros and cons on the web how many years ago could we have done that this makes the world seem smaller

Still would like Scotland to stay

 

[StewartR]

I still wonder if border points did get introduced if that would lead to a small reduction in visitors

You haven't been reading the Daily Mail again, have you?

If Scotland does gain independence, there won't be border controls or customs issues or anything like that. In the cold light of day it's in absolutely nobody's interests. The politicians and media might be scare-mongering to try to influence opinion before the vote, but realistically it would never happen.

(Declaration: I'm English, I live in England, I don't get to vote, and I'm not sure I even know how I feel about the issue. I'm just trying to be the voice of reason.)

 

[nilagin]

I am in the NE England Tony Blair lived less than 20 miles from me I for one agree with Scotland that London sucks the life out of all of us...................

That's the 2nd or 3rd time someone has said something to this effect in this thread. Anyone care to explain how or why?

 

[big soft moose]

Here's a thought , could scotland go politically independent but remain a commonwealth country in the same way that australia, canada etc did

Also as regards the army , you get various foreign nationals serving in the uk armed forces currently - mostly from common wealth countries or those where we have a special relationship such as the ghurka's , so their would be ample precedent for any scot serving in the uk forces to remain there after scottish independence if they wished (i'm sure some would choose to leave and join a scottish defence force instead , but you have to wonder how attractive that idea would be to a career soilder as any scottish force would almost certainly be less well equiped and have less opportunities for action than the uk army (most of the soilders I know actively enjoy combat - and actively seek it - I know several that have transfered between units in order to secure another tour in the afghan instead of the boredom of a 'safe' posting.)

 

[StewartR]

Here's a thought , could scotland go politically independent but remain a commonwealth country in the same way that australia, canada etc did

Also as regards the army , you get various foreign nationals serving in the uk armed forces currently - mostly from common wealth countries or those where we have a special relationship such as the ghurka's , so their would be ample precedent for any scot serving in the uk forces to remain there after scottish independence ....

That makes a lot of sense. As with so many aspects of the debate, there are loads of naysayers at present, but if independence does happens then there's no obvious reason for arrangements like this not to flourish.

 

[StewartR]

Random thought. Some Scottish Nationalists might be a bit over zealous about their concept of nationhood, but they'd have to go a long way to top this plaid Cymru MP:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26472782

 

[Blank_Canvas]

I wonder if Scotland will reintroduce the charge to cross the Forth Road Bridge again if they gain independence ?

 

[border_all]

You haven't been reading the Daily Mail again, have you?

If Scotland does gain independence, there won't be border controls or customs issues or anything like that. In the cold light of day it's in absolutely nobody's interests. The politicians and media might be scare-mongering to try to influence opinion before the vote, but realistically it would never happen.

(Declaration: I'm English, I live in England, I don't get to vote, and I'm not sure I even know how I feel about the issue. I'm just trying to be the voice of reason.)

No don't read the papers we do have uk border agency we are meant lol to monitor people in and out of the union if Scotland goes independant how do the rest of us know who is crossing from Scotland ?

 

[big soft moose]

No don't read the papers we do have uk border agency we are meant lol to monitor people in and out of the union if Scotland goes independant how do the rest of us know who is crossing from Scotland ?

we don't have border posts on every road between ulster and eire (they have some checks on the major ones but there are loads that meander in and out)

 

[border_all]

That's the 2nd or 3rd time someone has said something to this effect in this thread. Anyone care to explain how or why?

I have been a member for a good while I have been in the NE England most of my life maybe as we are geographically close we deeply care about Scotland I certainly do so not sure what explanation you are looking for I doubt it's a conspiracy going on

 

[big soft moose]

I wonder if Scotland will reintroduce the charge to cross the Forth Road Bridge again if they gain independence ?

Maybe England should reintroduce the charge for those crossing going south ? (like on the tamar - you can enter cornwall free but it wil cost you £1.50 to get out )

 

[big soft moose]

I have been a member for a good while I have been in the NE England most of my life maybe as we are geographically close we deeply care about Scotland I certainly do so not sure what explanation you are looking for I doubt it's a conspiracy going on

I think he meant about london suvcking the life out etc , and explanationof how...

 

[border_all]

we don't have border posts on every road between ulster and eire (they have some checks on the major ones but there are loads that meander in and out)

Is that a good thing

 

[Moadib]

I'm surprised by how extreme some of the opinions seem to be regarding relatives, trade, travel and the like, and how awful that may be in case of independence. It makes it sound like North Korea that's going to be created!

Europe operates the Schengen system, with open borders. Scandinavian countries have similar things - there will be no issue between Scotland and England. So too in my work we trade with companies in England exactly as we deal with France, Germany, Italy, or indeed Taiwan, China, Japan. Borders make essentially no difference these days in terms of trade, and nor should they. The fact that a certain geographical location and group of people decide to self-determine their future, makes no difference whatsoever in whether you can trade with them, visit them, be friendly with them - nothing changes. They may have different laws than you, or tax rates, whatever, but they are still the same.

It's nice to hear people in England talking fondly of relationship with Scotland, and I'm sure many Scots like myself feel likewise. But I will feel no different in case of independence. Many Scots still feel warmly toward the French (the "Auld alliance"), and we need not be the same country for that.

It's a generalisation, but on the whole many people dislike change and I'd again include myself in that to some extent. There comes a threshold point where you have to say "this isn't working", and you look for what can be done about it. In this case at least for me that point is watching Scotland drift into weaker economy, more reliance on benefits (oil money handed back from Westminster as "benefits"), indeed more reliance on oil money. Many people see that economic downtrend as a reason to stay in the UK - I see it as a reason to leave. That has happened while we are in the UK, while we are in the EU, and indeed is happening across most Western economies. Being governed by London hasn't helped, being governed by Brussels hasn't helped. It's absolutely nothing to do with the people of England (who suffer from the same mismanagement), but is simply that if we want to be better as a people, we better start facing up to realities, and dealing with those.

Scotland is a country with a good population to land ratio. A good population to arable land ratio. Good access to water. Excellent fishing waters. Excellent access to wind and tidal power. Oil. Hydro. Relatively unspoiled. All of these things are an excellent basis on which to construct a vision for, and path toward, the future.

Think of it as living in shared accommodation - at some point the landlord's requirements and your requirements no longer mesh. You move out, you get your own place. In other words you grow up, you become "independent". You don't cut off your friends from that time, indeed they are likely to be your strongest friends and allies also in the future, but the process or releasing dependence makes you both stronger and better than before.

 

[big soft moose]

Well we're both EU states and we have freedom of movement inside the EU - so strictly speaking you only need checks at EU borders. So so long as an independent scotland continues passport checks at its ports and airports theres no need to check on the Eng/scot border

 

[border_all]

I think he meant about london suvcking the life out etc , and explanationof how...

Ah sorry lol I would lay odds most of the population thinks London sucks our blood HS2 is a great example I emailed the leaders of the four main parties explaining that I considered this something that would increase the north south divide the best thing about the nett is we can at least let off steam at £40 billion plans vbg

 

[nilagin]

Ah sorry lol I would lay odds most of the population thinks London sucks our blood HS2 is a great example I emailed the leaders of the four main parties explaining that I considered this something that would increase the north south divide the best thing about the nett is we can at least let off steam at £40 billion plans vbg

Ignoring cost, surely HS2 would be of benefit to north and south, or have I missed something and the train would travel in one direction only?

 

[border_all]

Well we're both EU states and we have freedom of movement inside the EU - so strictly speaking you only need checks at EU borders. So so long as an independent scotland continues passport checks at its ports and airports theres no need to check on the Eng/scot border

I watched a TV program that had the EU saying Scotland would not be automatically enrolled in the club

Being old enough I voted years ago to join and would do so again if asked by the ukip on conservatives stay or leave

 

[border_all]

Ignoring cost, surely HS2 would be of benefit to north and south, or have I missed something and the train would travel in one direction only?

Perhaps ! In my opinion the reason for the link is faster travel good luck with that but it seems likely that like many regions the working traveller will need to go south I don't think many will travel from London North for lower pay lol

In addition the cost is immense and of minimal value with the majority of the population

While the government thinks London living allowances are a good thing it seems most will keep trying to fit in a small area

In reality I feel in the NE far closer with Scotland than the south in values

 

[Moadib]

I watched a TV program that had the EU saying Scotland would not be automatically enrolled in the club

One more reason to go for independence....!

But on that note, why is it assumed that Scotland would be out, yet it is assumed that "UK minus Scotland" would retain a position in the EU?

The "United Kingdom" was formed by the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and prior to that Great Britain was formed by the union of England and Scotland. By the independence of Scotland, "Great Britain" (and therefore the United Kingdom, of which Great Britain is a part) ceases to exist. If Scotland is considered a politically new entity and must reapply for everything, so too must the other parts of the UK form a new legal entity which in turn must apply for membership.

If "Kingdom of England + Kingdom of Scotland" = "Kingdom of Great Britain", why does subtracting Scotland STILL leave a Kingdom of Great Britain? It's like a marriage continuing after one partner divorced!

 

[Moadib]

Ignoring cost, surely HS2 would be of benefit to north and south, or have I missed something and the train would travel in one direction only?

Have you SEEN the cost of our trams!?! Sorry "tram" - we have only one line, and it still managed to cost over a billion quid, SO FAR.

We're rather disillusioned, not to mention very wary, of politicians and the money they can spend on train sets....

 

[Dave *]

One more reason to go for independence....!

But on that note, why is it assumed that Scotland would be out, yet it is assumed that "UK minus Scotland" would retain a position in the EU?

The "United Kingdom" was formed by the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and prior to that Great Britain was formed by the union of England and Scotland. By the independence of Scotland, "Great Britain" (and therefore the United Kingdom, of which Great Britain is a part) ceases to exist. If Scotland is considered a politically new entity and must reapply for everything, so too must the other parts of the UK form a new legal entity which in turn must apply for membership.

If "Kingdom of England + Kingdom of Scotland" = "Kingdom of Great Britain", why does subtracting Scotland STILL leave a Kingdom of Great Britain? It's like a marriage continuing after one partner divorced!

I can't find the link (or remember all the legal terms), but it has been confirmed that rUK will be the same national entity as the current UK after (if) Scotland left.

The comparison given was Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union continuing with all treaties and agreements signed as the USSR and continuing as the same permanent member of the UN Security Council.

 

[border_all]

I'm surprised by how extreme some of the opinions seem to be regarding relatives, trade, travel and the like, and how awful that may be in case of independence. It makes it sound like North Korea that's going to be created!

Europe operates the Schengen system, with open borders. Scandinavian countries have similar things - there will be no issue between Scotland and England. So too in my work we trade with companies in England exactly as we deal with France, Germany, Italy, or indeed Taiwan, China, Japan. Borders make essentially no difference these days in terms of trade, and nor should they. The fact that a certain geographical location and group of people decide to self-determine their future, makes no difference whatsoever in whether you can trade with them, visit them, be friendly with them - nothing changes. They may have different laws than you, or tax rates, whatever, but they are still the same.

It's nice to hear people in England talking fondly of relationship with Scotland, and I'm sure many Scots like myself feel likewise. But I will feel no different in case of independence. Many Scots still feel warmly toward the French (the "Auld alliance"), and we need not be the same country for that.

It's a generalisation, but on the whole many people dislike change and I'd again include myself in that to some extent. There comes a threshold point where you have to say "this isn't working", and you look for what can be done about it. In this case at least for me that point is watching Scotland drift into weaker economy, more reliance on benefits (oil money handed back from Westminster as "benefits"), indeed more reliance on oil money. Many people see that economic downtrend as a reason to stay in the UK - I see it as a reason to leave. That has happened while we are in the UK, while we are in the EU, and indeed is happening across most Western economies. Being governed by London hasn't helped, being governed by Brussels hasn't helped. It's absolutely nothing to do with the people of England (who suffer from the same mismanagement), but is simply that if we want to be better as a people, we better start facing up to realities, and dealing with those.

Scotland is a country with a good population to land ratio. A good population to arable land ratio. Good access to water. Excellent fishing waters. Excellent access to wind and tidal power. Oil. Hydro. Relatively unspoiled. All of these things are an excellent basis on which to construct a vision for, and path toward, the future.

Think of it as living in shared accommodation - at some point the landlord's requirements and your requirements no longer mesh. You move out, you get your own place. In other words you grow up, you become "independent". You don't cut off your friends from that time, indeed they are likely to be your strongest friends and allies also in the future, but the process or releasing dependence makes you both stronger and better than before.

First sorry for quoting the entire post not sure how I cut it

I do hope that people when voting at least consider that in the event you leave the union the rest of the population are likely to want a vote on what happens next

Change is great just take dslr bodies we all love the new tools but we could if forced use film.

I find the most interesting your shared accommodation point very good I actually at 18 came home from work and my Dad had moved out no idea it was coming

When Dad did this I still kept contact and I am certainly in agreement with you that it made in my case me stronger, did it make me respect him no!

I find the best thing in life that when someone sneezes it causes little changes some are good but not all

Just consider if a currency use of pound is not permitted ( I mean here using the Bank of England as lender of last resort) or the EU say that Scotland is not a member. Maybe some companies really did leave Scotland will that not create issues for border control

For me Dad voted to go I had mainly what was in my bedroom I managed second hand gear at first then made progress but the family ties never recovered fully and I was always wary

Had Dad voted to come back would you have then trusted him if Scotland did not like the new era of being independent could it really re join the muon it seems for me a one off stay go which is exactly what the SNP say

If you go I would certainly wish you luck prefer that you stayed lol

Allan

 

[Steep]

To my mind the EU membership question is a red herring, a political bargaining point along with the currency. My personal belief is that if we go we should go completely i.e. no EU and no Sterling, A.S. is using them as sops to encourage the weak willed to vote yes, Westminster is using them as cattle prods to drive them to vote no. We don't need the EU and we don't need the pound, businesses that flee South will find their places filled by others easily enough. I do realise that there would be advantages to EU membership but there would be a downside as well and it's not the only option open to us because Scotland is now a vibrant forward looking country and will still be as an independent nation. I'm not likely to see all my choices become reality though, EU membership is pretty much assured if we want it and there would be at least a short term advantage to us remaining in the Stirling zone.

 

[nilagin]

Perhaps ! In my opinion the reason for the link is faster travel good luck with that but it seems likely that like many regions the working traveller will need to go south I don't think many will travel from London North for lower pay lol

In addition the cost is immense and of minimal value with the majority of the population

While the government thinks London living allowances are a good thing it seems most will keep trying to fit in a small area

In reality I feel in the NE far closer with Scotland than the south in values

So what you are saying is, it will open up job opportunities for people living in the north to work in London and earn more money. If the majority of high earners live and work in London anyway surely they will be paying more than most for the cost of HS2 whilst it would be people living in the north and commuting to London that would reap the benefits.

 

[FourRingCircus]

There's all sorts of hidden and combined aspects to consider though, such as military bases up here that would disappear but there is substantial income tax revenue, local VAT revenue etc which is associated with these bases. The headquarters which are all saying they will move out, they generate income tax. The shipbuilding on the Clyde - thousands of jobs and again all that income tax gone just as would be the VAT revenue from their local spending.

Looks like a press release from Westminsters Project Fear department.

Firstly, the military bases won't disappear. They are here and they will be used by a new Scottish defence force. Scotland currently spends almost DOUBLE per head than the EU average on defence. Bringing that spending down by £800M will STILL see us with ample national defence. Furthermore, we will actually have a greater range of defence jobs, as currently all the top brass are down south. This too will change.

Ship building on the Clyde...... In 1979, the 'no campaign' said that independence would kill 30,000 jobs on the Clyde, as well as killing places like Linwood, Ravenscraig etc. Despite the 'union' succeeding, there are now only 2,500 jobs on the Clyde and nothing else. Let me tell you some hard facts here. Those 'thousands' of jobs won't be lost, because rUK has nowhere that can build these vessels. They will have to be built on 'foreign' soil. Furthermore, who do you think we will use to build our own vessels? I susect a rejuvination of ship-building on the Clyde under independence.

But not under Nationalists.

Where in the referendum do you see a vote for the SNP?

I'm a tartan tory!! I'm note voting for Salmond or the SNP. I'm voting for myself and for Scotland.

 

[jakeblu]

I'm surprised by how extreme some of the opinions seem to be regarding relatives, trade, travel and the like, and how awful that may be in case of independence. It makes it sound like North Korea that's going to be created!
Europe operates the Schengen system, with open borders.

The UK is not signed up to the Schengen area agreement although we do have arrangements with Eire and would probably do the same with Scotland should it go independent. Although I suppose it depends if London throw the toys out of the pram with a yes vote.

Steve

 

[FourRingCircus]

I suppose it depends if London throw the toys out of the pram with a yes vote.

The Westminster toys are already scattered on the pavement around the pram wheels. In the event of a yes vote, either the wheels will come off the pram and the baby will be laying in the gutter, OR, the toys will be placed back in the pram and the parents will start sensible and pragmatic discussions.

 

[StewartR]

The UK is not signed up to the Schengen area agreement although we do have arrangements with Eire and would probably do the same with Scotland should it go independent. Although I suppose it depends if London throw the toys out of the pram with a yes vote.

Even with the best will in the world on all sides, this little issue illustrates some of the fine print that would need to be sorted out after independence, and it's another illustration of how nobody knows what will happen.

If an independent Scotland doesn't join the EU, then Scotland and rUK would presumably want to have an open-borders arrangement. It makes pragmatic sense and i can't see that there's any problem with that. The other EU countries don't have a say in it because the UK isn't part of the Schengen Area.

If an independent Scotland does join the EU, it would be required to adopt the Schengen agreement as part of the joining process. But the UK isn't in Schengen and wouldn't want to be. So that means controls on the land border between Scotland and England. The required checks wouldn't be onerous on EU/EEA citizens, but they have to be there for non-EU/EEA citizens. I don't think there's any means of having an opt-out - even Cyprus doesn't have one.

If an independent Scotland were accepted to be already a de facto continuing member of the EU, then ... there's no precedent, so nobody knows how it would turn out. Presumably it would continue to be outside Schengen, since the UK is currently outside Schengen, and therefore Scotland could have an open border with rUK.

So, to summarise:
Q: Would there be border controls on the land border between Scotland and England?
A: Nobody knows.

 

[POAH]

Where in the referendum do you see a vote for the SNP?

I'm a tartan tory!! I'm note voting for Salmond or the SNP. I'm voting for myself and for Scotland.

sadly that's what people see with the vote on independence rather than the change it will bring

 

[Moadib]

The UK is not signed up to the Schengen area agreement although we do have arrangements with Eire and would probably do the same with Scotland should it go independent. Although I suppose it depends if London throw the toys out of the pram with a yes vote.

Steve

That was my point. For example Norway is not in the EU, Sweden is - but between them they have no passport control. Both are in Schengen, but they also created the Nordic Passport Union which would apply even without Schengen. I can't see there being any issue between Scotland and England in case of a yes vote.

 

[Moadib]

If an independent Scotland does join the EU, it would be required to adopt the Schengen agreement as part of the joining process.

Not necessarily - the UK is in the EU and not in Schengen. Switzerland is in Schengen and not in the EU. It's negotiable.

So, to summarise:
Q: Would there be border controls on the land border between Scotland and England?
A: Nobody knows.

Of course - because there's no need to decide yet. There are options, and one of those will be selected once we know the vote on independence. No need to choose a wedding photographer before popping the question!

 

[StewartR]

Not necessarily - the UK is in the EU and not in Schengen. Switzerland is in Schengen and not in the EU. It's negotiable.

It might be. It might not.

The UK was in the EU before the Schengen agreement and negotiated an opt-out before the agreement came into force, so it's not a relevant precedent. Switzerland signed up to Schengen voluntarily, so that's not a relevant precedent either.

But the status of Schengen is that new entrants to the EU have to accept it as one of the core requirements. No exceptions. Not even Cyprus. So *if* Scotland became independent and *if* it were treated as a new member of the EU, then it would have to accept Schengen.

I'm not trying to say this is good or bad. I'm just trying to illustrate my earlier point, which is that nobody on either side of the debate has any idea what they would be voting for in a practical sense.

Nobody knows what they are voting FOR in practical terms. At the end of the day it all comes down to principle, hope and belief, that Scotland will be better off somehow (for some personal definition of "better off") if it isn't or is part of the UK. Voters in both camps may find that they're facing a Pyrrhic victory - that they've won the point of principle, but eventually find that the mundane practicalities are worse than before.

 

[Moadib]

It might be. It might not.

The UK was in the EU before the Schengen agreement and negotiated an opt-out before the agreement came into force, so it's not a relevant precedent. Switzerland signed up to Schengen voluntarily, so that's not a relevant precedent either.

But the status of Schengen is that new entrants to the EU have to accept it as one of the core requirements. No exceptions. Not even Cyprus. So *if* Scotland became independent and *if* it were treated as a new member of the EU, then it would have to accept Schengen.

It will be negotiable - everything between people is. If the EU forces the issue, then they will have to force the UK also - the EU can't have Scotland in Schengen and England not. The EU is hell bent on expansion - they want Turkey in, they want Iceland in - basically they want the biggest trading bloc they can. They'll certainly want Scotland in - whether the Scots want in is another matter. But the issue of borders is a mountain out of a molehill - Scotland's open borders shared with England, will be of far more importance (to the Scots) than any EU borders. We have free movement with England now, and closed with the EU - the chance of that being changed in the near/medium term by independence is vanishingly small. Even in the case the EU were to force it, there is time to implement - look at Ireland, still putting the framework in place.

It's not that nobody knows on either side, it's that it is not possible to know - striving for certainty on details is pointless, especially based upon the "information" each side is flinging around. The information given will be, indeed MUST be, propaganda from each side - there will be no "facts", except accidentally. Both sides want to win (as they see it) so they will fudge figures, scaremonger and downright lie in order to do so. And in my opinion that's fine - none of that matters. In 500 years no-one will care whether the border with the EU was open or closed, chances are the EU itself will not exist. These details are not the important points - they're simply whipped up to scare people into staying where they are. "You don't know what the changes might bring, therefore better stay where you are". But these are mere details, if even that. If on becoming independent Scotland can't sorry out something as simple as a border, that'll be the least of our problems.

 

[StewartR]

It will be negotiable - everything between people is.

I think you're in danger of confusing the process with the outcome. Just because you can sit down with someone and talk about an issue, it doesn't follow that you will get the result you want.

 

[Moadib]

?

I made no assumption as to the outcome of anything - only that there will be a process.

Maybe I wasn't clear, but there IS no result from that process that I want - it's a non-issue, a bacteria on the hot potato that is independence. The issue is self determination for the next several hundred years - which passports will open which border gates is scare-bait.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Have enjoyed this subject and respect to all the Scots in both the Yes to independence corner and to the No group in the other.

I think SWMBO wants to live in an independent Scotland in the house she inherited from her grandmother.

She even pulled the wide range of photography that we have planned for years....

Whatever the outcome, yes or no, the debate has shown that the 'union' was never for the ordinary person but for those with vested interests on both sides of the border.

Now it comes down to those living in Scotland irrespective of race, creed or culture. Some will be recent arrivals from close and distant lands, many with little or no knowledge or heritage of Scotland but whose right to vote is in the rules. Theirs would be an interesting compilation for reasons they vote Yes or No.

I hope the Yes vote succeeds no matter what follows.

The machinations in Westminster will be fantastic and the current 'rulers' may yet discover that in opening Pandora's Box they reap the outcomes of the law of unintended consequences. My gut feeling is that rUK will be worse off with Scotland doing it's own thing for it's own population. If so, how would the thieves, liars and idiots in Westminster answer the demand for what the independent neighbours north of the border enjoy. Like not getting involved in imperialist wars and interfering in destabilisation of other sovereign nations.

For me personally my own heritage is spread across the current and historic UK.

A yes vote in Scotland excites me to be blunt. Westminster needs a kick in the "ballons" and perhaps a bigger boost to start to make life better for all and not the uber-rich and their bought and paid for politicians.

Go Scotland... we all have nothing to lose, a little pain now and hopefully a better tomorrow.

S

 

[gman]

I think it's fairly obvious that the SNP (and worse Salmond) will be in control should Scotland go independent.

My comments aren't straight from the "Fear Campaign" although ironically I'm seeing an awful lot of comments here that are almost word for word that came from the panel at a "Pro Yes" meeting I attended a month ago in order to keep an open mind by hearing from both sides. For me there just seems to be far too much rhetoric and not enough figures. There were people standing up and shouting that "we need to get up off our knees and start fighting this properly". I rolled my eyes and wondered if I stood out for not have a painted saltire on my face.

I appreciate it can be difficult to provide accurate figures for something where there are so many unknowns, however, the currency would be a good starting point as the value of almost everything is directly linked to the value of your currency. I also don't seem to hear very much in the way of new contracts and investments (along with the relevant financial information) promised for an independent Scotland. Surely if this independence were such a good thing then there would be hordes of companies lining up to setup in Scotland? Things like this would help reassure people that Scotland is planning for the best and not just hoping for the best.



Anyway, here's some interesting reading:


1 When will the financial sector know what the future holds?
No one knows. The obvious answer would be September 19 – the day after the referendum. But that’s not wholly true. The political process has been structured such that many of the most important questions cannot be answered until after the vote, as that is when, should there be a “yes” vote, the newly independent Scotland will start negotiations with what’s left of the UK, the European Union and various other authorities. What’s more, during that negotiation period there will be a UK general election, a Scottish parliamentary election and, possibly, a UK referendum on EU membership. So we don’t even know who will be conducting the negotiations.

2 What currency would an independent Scotland use?
No one knows. There are four main options: sterling as part of a monetary union with the rest of the UK, sterling without such a union (often referred to as “dollarisation”), the euro or a brand new Scottish currency. The last three are not being considered by the pro-independence camp, which is adamant that it will be able to negotiate a monetary union with the UK. The pro-union camp is equally adamant that won’t happen. This is not just an issue of currency risk. With no monetary union, Scotland would have no central bank and the Scottish financial industry would have no lender of last resort.

3 Would an independent Scotland be part of the EU?
No one knows. The balance of probability suggests it would end up becoming a member – but on what terms? For one thing, countries that apply to join the EU sign up, at least in principle, to eventually joining the euro. For another, EU rules require member states to have their own central banks. It is hard to see how either of these conditions is compatible with a commitment to start negotiations with the UK on a currency union. Perhaps Scotland will, like the UK and Denmark, be able to gain an opt-out from Economic and Monetary Union. Equally, perhaps not.

4 What will financial regulation look like?
No one knows. A separate state would clearly need its own regulatory framework and that would involve additional cost and complexity for the industry. But how much is unknowable. The Scottish government’s white paper on independence said it would continue to defer to the Bank of England on macro-prudential matters. But that is predicated on sterling monetary union. It also said that Scotland would set up its own financial regulator, which would work “alongside the equivalent UK authority on a consistent and harmonised basis”. This raises the spectre of dual accountability.

5 How long from a “yes” vote to a new state?
No one knows. The Scottish government has said negotiations with the UK and the EU will take 18 months. However, many of the issues that need to be decided appear to be at odds with each other, if not mutually exclusive. It would surely take a modern-day Talleyrand to steer Scotland to a monetary union with the UK and membership of the EU in a year and a half, as is the Scottish government’s stated aim.

6 How would financial firms based in Scotland be affected?
No one knows. By their own accounts, Standard Life and the Royal Bank of Scotland, which reported their annual results last month, are grappling with the uncertainty. RBS was reasonably confident that “a vote in favour of Scottish independence would be likely to significantly impact the group’s credit ratings”.
Why? Because Scottish banks, whose balance sheets are so large compared to the local economy, would have to borrow from abroad to finance their operations. Those foreign creditors are liable to charge a much higher rate of interest to any bank that lost access (or was perceived as likely to lose access) to its lender of last resort, the Bank of England.

7 Would financial companies leave after independence?
No one knows. Those funding issues might force the banks out. But the general exodus of financial firms predicted by the unionist camp has probably been overstated. Many international firms with operations in Scotland are effectively “placeless”. There is no reason, for example, that Standard Life would have to move its entire Scottish operations south of the border. Edinburgh and Glasgow will remain very pleasant cities in which to do business.
But many Scottish firms may conclude they need to move their headquarters into the same jurisdiction as the majority of their customers (90% of Standard Life’s UK customers live outside Scotland). If enough firms move at least some functions to England or Wales then there is likely to be a gradual migration at the very least.

8 Will this hurt the Scottish economy?
No one knows. On the one hand, the financial services industry accounts for 8% of Scottish gross domestic product, generates roughly £8 billion for the Scottish economy and is directly and indirectly responsible for 200,000 jobs, according to Scottish Financial Enterprise. If any part of that industry migrates south, it will dent the Scottish coffers. On the other hand, the Scottish financial industry is probably too big to be supported by an independent country – its total assets are equal to 12.5 times GDP, compared with an average of 3.5 times across the EU, according to Standard & Poor’s – so a (gradual) rebalancing of the economy could be a positive.

9 How much will a split cost the Scottish financial industry?
No one knows. The Scottish government has not conducted a cost analysis of setting up a new currency, a new central bank and a new financial regulatory framework. It believes that it will share all these things with the rest of the UK. If that is true, the cost will be reasonably manageable. If not, it won’t.

10 Will any of this influence the referendum?
No. Despite the furore generated by Standard Life’s announcement, the Scottish independence referendum is not principally about finance, commerce or economics. It is about identity, passion and a sense of belonging.
All the country’s banks, asset managers, insurers and pension providers can do is remain sitting atop a very high fence, plan for the possibility of ending up on either side and treat anyone who claims to have answers to the above questions with a dose of healthy scepticism.

 

[FourRingCircus]

From the foregoing, you strike me as a person who wants certainty in life. In which case, you may have never bought a car or a house, started a new job, changed career, started a business, got married or had children..........?

The independence vote is not about any of the things you have mentioned. Nor is it about Salmond himself or the SNP. It's something you either want, or you don't. At the risk of sounding flippant, everything else is superfluous in my mind.

I'd venture the fear campaign from Westminster has instilled many of the questions you have asked in many people whose heart says 'Yes', but you may not have asked yourself the simplest of questions. What on earth makes you think that Scotland alone cannot survive and prosper, when countless previous empire nations have managed perfectly well - most without the wealth of resources inherent to Scotland (and I don't just mean oil)?

Independence is something I've desired for almost fifty years. I was too young to have a say in 1979 but I will not miss this once in a lifetime opportunity for it in September. In fact, viewing the actions of Westminster lately have made me even more determined. I don't think I'll ever see this chance again and I doubt if the stable door won't be welded shut if we don't make a stand this time.

Scotland IS different from rUK. We do not have the imperialist mindset, we don't want to conquer the world by force, nor do we want to have the capability to annihilate foreign cities with a nuclear capability. We don't want to be run by global corporations and we don't want to be denigrated by public schoolboys (on the left or the right) six-hundred miles away.

I have no illusions that it will all be plain sailing. However, I relish the thought that we could have a more cohesive society in years to come where our young people feel that they have options within our own boundaries and a reason to stay and make it happen.